4th or lower
Shizuka managed 60 and would have had about 132 with 6 triples. If she can manage that Kwan with an improved choreography and elements since 2005 would be able to get 63 and 128 with 6 triples clean which would put her in almost a virtual tie for gold. So either gold or silver. Kwan is a judges favorite and was a sentimetal favorite so would get some help from the judges to atlast come close to gold, with the favorites all making mistakes. In a competition with all skating their best though Kwan would have no hope in 2006 and it would be betweeen Arakawa, Slutskaya, and Cohen.
If you add any competitor into the field, even some nobody like say Marta Andrade of Spain, everything changes. Skate order changes, what a skater deliver at one exact moment might not be the same as they did at another 7, 14, or 20 minutes later or earlier. So it impossible to guage how everyone skates with a new entry into the event. All that is for sure is 2006 was never Kwan's gold to win or lose like 1998 and maybe 2002 were. And even at those she skated clean in 1998 and lost at the same event she would have crushed everyone with everyone skating clean. So imagine an event 4 or 5 others would beat her with everyone skating cleanly.
Some of you are forgetting Kostner. Kostner didnt have anywhere near the artistry or polish she has today back then, and she was even more inconsistent. However she did have the technical skills and skating skills, and reputation after her world medal in 2005 even as lucky and flukish as it might have seemed to medal at the Games at home if she had one of her better competitions. She had already skated much better to win bronze at the recent Europeans behind Slutskaya and Sokolova than she did to win her messy bronze at the messy 2005 worlds, and the 2006 Olympics would be an even messier event than the 2005 worlds, and nothing like the really well skated Europeans she had just missed silver at. Add home crowd, home ice, and inflated scores, and anything was possible, certainly a medal was.
Kwan and Kostner wouldnt have been the favorites at the 2006 Games but they both could have capatilized on Slutskaya and Cohen's miscues, Shizuka's watered down skates, and Asada's bogus and shameful (to ISU and IOC) absence.
Could someone with records of the then JPN point system confirm who out of Arakawa, Suguri or Ando would be left off the Turin team if Asada had been age eligible? Or was Asada's accumulated points still too low to make the team even if she had been age eligible?
The Japanese would have been the laughing stock of the skating world if they sent Ando to the 06 Olympics and left Arakawa or Suguri at home. Especialy after Ando's awful result at the Games.
I believe Ando was heavily sponsored in both 2006 and 2010. That plus strong worlds / GPs results were enough to justify her being named despite poor Nationals results, both times. I feel bad for Nakano, both times. I blame per country rules for this.
I cant imagine in a million years them sending her over Suguri or Arakawa in 2006, regardless of any points system. I guess we will never know for certain though. The other skaters around the world would be thrilled if they send useless Ando instead of say potential winner Shizuka though.
I think if everyone skated cleanly in Turin these would be the results:
1. Slutskaya- overscored like usual
5. Ando or Kwan
Not sure where Asada and Kim would have fit in, clean Asada probably medals ahead of clean Cohen though, while clean Kim doesnt medal since she wasnt that good a skater with no reputation yet but probably bumps clean Kwan down another rung.
Suguri was lucky so many others made mistakes or were missing, not even counting Kim and Asada who were age ruled out, to even have a chance at a medal if she skated 2 clean programs. She then doubled a jumps and had several shaky landings in the long. It is funny to hear anyone say she was robbed since in a full field with Kim and Asada included she wouldnt even finish top 10 if everyone had gone clean as my list proves. So to beat skaters like Slutskaya and Cohen who medal even with everyone skating cleanly vs someone who wouldnt have even been top 10 when they make only 2 mistakes over the 2 programs she has to be totally clean to reasonably think she has done enough, and she wasnt even clean. I dont understand why anyone thinks Fumie was robbed of anything at those Games.