View Poll Results: How could healthy 6 triple Kwan do do in Turin

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  • gold

    64 33.33%
  • silver

    61 31.77%
  • bronze

    34 17.71%
  • 4th or lower

    33 17.19%
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  1. #181
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    Silver probably. At the 95 worlds even clean (with 6 triples) she would have only managed a 61 short and 121 long. I am going to be very generous to Kwan and guess some major improvement under IJS, and factoring in the tougher judging of the 2006 Olympic ladies panel, maybe a 63 short and 125 long. Still would be a good 3-4 points back of winning, but enough for silver. If her programs were like 95 though probably only bronze splitting Cohen and Slutskaya. Saying that feels strange when Slutskaya clearly deserved to beat Cohen, but the judges began to dump Slutskaya after she lost the grand prix final to Asada, and immediately after she went from the judges pet to a judges pariah. How she was scored in the short program of Turin said it all. Cohen made the right choice to skip the event.

  2. #182
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    ^I think you mean '05.

    I agree w/ you that a clean Kwan with or without IJS improvements from '05 would've garnered silver IF everyone else remained the same: She would not have touched Arakawa, but would've finished in front of a flawed Slutskaya and Cohen. I don't think she would've touched the bronze if she remained the same as from '05, probably battling a clean Suguri for 4th.

    I don't agree that Slutskaya wuz robbed. Cohen fell and had a bad stumble but she held the rest of it together, especially the 2nd half w/ a 3-3 sequence. The program also had an overall Olympic feel which probably helped her PCS. Slutskaya had a bad fall and a doubled jump in the 2d half of the program, and as is often the case w/ Slutskaya, the entire program goes south when she has major mistakes.

  3. #183
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    Well looking at the protocals Slutskaya had close to 0 in GOE for almost every jump she did, even the clean ones. That is not right, as she has some of the best and most explosive jumps out there. I can understand her triple flip landed shaky being a 0, but her first triple lutz (even with the slightly imperfect landing, since it was huge and so well done otherwise), her triple salchow combination, her triple toe, and double axel all warranted much more GOE than she got. Some of her spin levels were questionable. I agree with her relatively low PCS (for her) as it was a sloppy program, not even that well choreographed, and she gave up on it after the mistakes. However she was also way undermarked in the short program and should have been over 70 IMO. Sasha was also a bit undermarked in the short but her double axel landing was shaky and given the short program scores of Irina all year, and Irina's very energetic performance with such great elements, she should have been behind. Shizuka should have been way behind both in the short and was given a huge gift, but if the longs were skated the same way probably wins anyway.

  4. #184
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    Arakawa was able to win with a conservative, watered-down program (that's not a knock against her, just how the cookie crumbled). A clean, healthy Kwan - I'm just going to assume that Tarasova choreographed a lovely, CoP-friendly LP since no one's seen it - would have placed no lower than 2nd and would have probably won the gold (considering Cohen's mistakes).

    Also, I think that people are underestimating the "retirement present" factor.

  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichelleSpiral View Post
    A clean, healthy Kwan - I'm just going to assume that Tarasova choreographed a lovely, CoP-friendly LP since no one's seen it
    Why assume that other than wishful thinking. When is the last time Tarasova EVER choreographed a good program. 2002 maybe. Just look at her horrific work with Mao, and that is only a few years later.

    As for Shizuka I imagine if she felt she had to do more she could have. It is telling she was practicing with 7 triples and 2 triple-triples which would have gotten her way over 140 points probably, and cut back to not only no triple-triples but 5 triples (she could have easily done 6 or 7 even without a triple-triple). She knew Sasha had fallen and only made 5 triples, and she knew Irina would probably skate horribly as she was struggling with the altitude, her illness, and crashing and burning badly in practice, so she decided on a safe 5 triple program to win.

  6. #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by grassroots39 View Post
    Why assume that other than wishful thinking. When is the last time Tarasova EVER choreographed a good program. 2002 maybe. Just look at her horrific work with Mao, and that is only a few years later.

    As for Shizuka I imagine if she felt she had to do more she could have. It is telling she was practicing with 7 triples and 2 triple-triples which would have gotten her way over 140 points probably, and cut back to not only no triple-triples but 5 triples (she could have easily done 6 or 7 even without a triple-triple). She knew Sasha had fallen and only made 5 triples, and she knew Irina would probably skate horribly as she was struggling with the altitude, her illness, and crashing and burning badly in practice, so she decided on a safe 5 triple program to win.
    I really enjoyed Mao's LP this season. I thought it was the LP of the night in Sochi, and her performance at Worlds was also excellent. Different strokes for different folks!

    Shizuka was definitely capable of more technical firepower than she displayed in her LP, but she could also be erratic and inconsistent.

  7. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by grassroots39 View Post
    She knew Sasha had fallen and only made 5 triples, and she knew Irina would probably skate horribly as she was struggling with the altitude, her illness, and crashing and burning badly in practice, so she decided on a safe 5 triple program to win.
    I'm not so sure Shizuka was trying to win. IIRC she said after the medal ceremony that she was trying to remain in the top 3. That she won was just a bonus.

  8. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichelleSpiral View Post
    I really enjoyed Mao's LP this season.
    Does Tarasova still choreograph for her?

  9. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by grassroots39 View Post
    Does Tarasova still choreograph for her?
    Yes.

  10. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by fenway2 View Post
    I'm not so sure Shizuka was trying to win. IIRC she said after the medal ceremony that she was trying to remain in the top 3. That she won was just a bonus.
    I wonder how much Arakawa knew about Cohen's performance before she skated. She probably only knew the top three would likely remain in the top three in some order as long as they all skated decently since everyone else was so far behind after the short and Suguri didn't have any big tricks planned.

  11. #191
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    I guess only Shizuka can read her own mind but if she was only trying for a medal that is baffling as a former world champion in a virtual 3 way tie for 1st after the short, and when she had been smoking everyone in practice. At the very least she must have known what Sasha did and what Irina had been skating like in practice to only attempt 5 triples. She would have atleast planned to try 6 or 7, even if she didnt bother with either of the two 3-3s she did regularly and landed regularly in practice. Even without a 3-3 combo you can do more than 5 triples easily.

  12. #192
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    BTW to those Kwan fans who think Kwan could have easily beaten Shizuka with 6 triples, Irina might not have even beaten Shizuka with 6 triples. Look at the protocals, Irina who came in as the gold medal favorite was beaten by Shizuka by about 10 points. Even had she not fallen on the triple loop and still doubled the flip to have 5 triples like Shizuka she had no chance of winning based on the protocals. Once she doubled the flip the gold was already well gone, even though Shizuka too had only done 5 triples. Even had Irina done all 6 she still might have lost to Shizuka doing only 5, it depends how much GOE she could have gained and PCS as she would have needed atleast a couple more points of it even doing both the loop and flip. Irina at that point in time was MUCH more favored than Kwan, and had much more scoring potential at the time under IJS than Michelle, so if that is what Irina needed to beat Shizuka, it puts things much more into perspective for the by then weaker and much less favored (compared to Irina who had been the dominant skater the last 2 years) Kwan.

  13. #193

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    Shizuka was definitely going for six triples in the LP, but she doubled her Loop. I think Morosov and Shizuka's game plan was just to skate a clean and inspired LP, and let the music do the rest. That strategy worked as the crowd really enjoyed that performance. Plus, Shizuka could feel confident that her non-jump elements were at a high level and were highly appreciated by the judges. I think she knew Sasha wasn't perfect, and even if she didn't actually know Sasha wasn't perfect, it would not have been too far-off the mark to assume that Sasha made an error or two. Anyway if Shiz didn't know, Morosov would definitely have known and he gave Shizuka that strategy going into her LP. Someone said that Shizuka would have probably been observing her competition in practice and if Slutskaya wasn't skating that well there (not just in the jumps department but in actually performing the program all-out), then Shizuka probably didn't worry too much about Slutskaya. That is not to say she wasn't worried because Slutskaya was still capable of skating all out and winning the whole thing.

    Anyway, I'm glad Shizuka won even though I preferred Sasha's Torino performance and didn't think Shizuka's SP and LP performances were that great honestly. I felt Shizuka was a good combination of Slutskaya and Cohen.
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  14. #194
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    Sasha was gorgeous in both programs in Sochi and would have fully deserved the gold medal had she not fallen twice. Such a shame. Other than the two falls it was the best skating and programs of her career though.

  15. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by frillit View Post
    Sasha was gorgeous in both programs in Sochi and would have fully deserved the gold medal had she not fallen twice. Such a shame. Other than the two falls it was the best skating and programs of her career though.
    I thought her SP was terrific but I think her Malaguena at 2004 Worlds was her best SP ever.
    OTOH, her R&J in Torino wasn't good. Even her trademark spiral sequence was rather unsteady. I think that her mistakes in the long did add to the "tragedy/drama" perception of her Juliet interpretation but the quality of skating just wasn't there. (I love Sasha, but I don't think she ever had good skating skills).

    As for Kwan, I guess we'll never see her actual program, and that's too bad. But as a delusional fan, I like to think that if she had worked on her spin levels, nailed 6 triples and brought the house down, and everyone else performed as they did (including Arakawa doubling the loop), she would have won the gold. I still find it very depressing that Arakawa's performance that night was worthy of the Olympic gold. To me, apart from her gorgeous outfit and sublime spiral sequence, her program felt uninspired.

    I also loved Mao's "Bells of Moscow" so I don't think that it was a bad choice for the Olympics.

  16. #196
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    4th place above Suguri. If she wasnt clean which is much more likely 6th behind Rochette.

  17. #197

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    Quote Originally Posted by frillit View Post
    Sasha was gorgeous in both programs in Sochi and would have fully deserved the gold medal had she not fallen twice. Such a shame. Other than the two falls it was the best skating and programs of her career though.
    I'm assuming you mean Torino?

    Sasha was amazing in the short program, or as she put it "Rock Star!!".

    That LP was heartbreaking.

  18. #198
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    I doubt she would have won. Winning would have required a 10-12 improvement on her scoring potential (when clean) from the 2005 worlds, and that is too much to be realistic in just one year probably, especialy being injured until atleast December 2005 even if she stayed healthy from there. A medal maybe, but her skating and scores at the 2005 worlds even going clean could leave her being Cohen or even Slutskaya, even with how they skated in Turin, so it would depend on her COP improvement and if there was any.

  19. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I doubt she would have won. Winning would have required a 10-12 improvement on her scoring potential (when clean) from the 2005 worlds, and that is too much to be realistic in just one year probably, especialy being injured until atleast December 2005 even if she stayed healthy from there. A medal maybe, but her skating and scores at the 2005 worlds even going clean could leave her being Cohen or even Slutskaya, even with how they skated in Turin, so it would depend on her COP improvement and if there was any.
    I think her '05 Worlds LP clean would've scored around 120 points? 62 + 120 =182 points. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think that would've put her in a tussle for silver w/ Sasha being flawed in the LP.

  20. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by olympic View Post
    I think her '05 Worlds LP clean would've scored around 120 points? 62 + 120 =182 points. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think that would've put her in a tussle for silver w/ Sasha being flawed in the LP.
    I am also too lazy to look up the scores but I remember a 61 and change for Kwan's clean short at the 2005 worlds and I also approximated a 120 LP. Sasha I remember a high 66 short and 116 and change long which would still be a higher total IIRC. Irina was more a high 66 and 114ish long which would come to roughly the same.

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