Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 75
  1. #1
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Miami, FL, USA
    Posts
    6,937
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0

    Gracie Gold : What are her chances at Sochi?

    What do you think Gracie's chances are at the Olympics, skating like she did at Nationals, repackaged by FC, and w/ the promotion of the USFSA?

    I think she is a medal contender. I think Gracie's technique and SS are better than that of Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya, but the competition is in Russia which gives them an automatic leg up. Of course, either of them skating lights out in Russia would almost guarantee a medal.

    Could she be any sort of factor against Mao or Yu Na?

    What about Kostner? In her present state, she will be hard-pressed to compete w/ those she was supposed to.

  2. #2
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    23
    Posts
    13,257
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    An interesting question.

    She is no factor against Kim IMO. Kim is just too consistent, and Gold would need mistakes to beat her, and they just dont come, not enough of them anyway.
    Watching Kim skate today though and Gold's improvement I think if Kim were a newcomer and Gold the established champion, a confrontation between the two would almost be Gold's to lose now. Kim has lost some spark and dynamic to her skating, and Gold with her excellent technical abilities and much improved artistry would have a real shot if she the more established skater, but such is not reality. After seeing Korean Nationals, and thinking of the scores Kim got last year at Worlds (knowing her short program will be 6-10 points higher this time around if she skates cleanly) which arent even being matched by other contenders skating lights out at their own Nationals, I doubt anyone is a real threat to Kim right now.

    If Mao doesnt get her triple axel in order though or change her strategy Gold could be a big threat to her. I dont see Mao getting away with messing up in some way nearly every triple axel attempt like she did this season thus far if the girls step it up like they practically all have lately. A couple months ago I thought she had a real shot at the Olympic Gold, but now I think she will be fighting to stay on the people over people like Gold and Sotnikova and several others.

    Kostner is in big trouble. Even when she skates well she is being outscored by more and more people now. Forget if Gold can possibly beat or upset her, Gold might be more of a contender than her right now.

    Sotnikova and Lipnitskaia will get a home country boost and are scoring highly even outside their home country this season so Gold will have to skate lights out finish above them. Sotnikova, like Gold, is learning how to compete, and the judges seem to be really starting to fall for her.

    Suzuki if she skates like Japanese Nationals will be hard to deny a medal of some kind, and would be hard for Gold to beat, but she rarely skates to that level.

    Murakami and Wagner are long shots at best and Gold will beat both no problem if she simply skates to her potential.
    Last edited by judgejudy27; 01-16-2014 at 01:56 AM.

  3. #3
    Port de bras!!!
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Ravenclaw
    Posts
    30,123
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    34026
    Gold will need help from the big guns to medal. And she herself would have to do as well as she did at Nationals. But it's possible.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  4. #4

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    2,227
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    ^ Nutshell.

    She looks like a million dollars and an Olympic medal... even gold if Yu Na has an off night. But will she be able to "just do her job"? She has a lotta lotta pressure on her unless The Zen King is able to shut it all out for her.

  5. #5
    Port de bras!!!
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Ravenclaw
    Posts
    30,123
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    34026
    Well, Yuna AND Mao and possibly Carolina Kostner would have to have a night off. I think if they are both clean, the judges would pick Gracie over Julia in the SP--didn't they do that at SC, even with the horrid SP she had then? The newly Frankified lovely Grieg SP would definitely come out on top.

    Not sure what they would do head to head with Adelina.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  6. #6

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    2,227
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Gracie's Grieg beats Adelina's Carmen. And I like Adelina a lot.

  7. #7
    Port de bras!!!
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Ravenclaw
    Posts
    30,123
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    34026
    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    Gracie's Grieg beats Adelina's Carmen. And I like Adelina a lot.
    I don't like Adelina at all, so I agree with you. Adelina might get the home ice nod, though.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  8. #8

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    2,227
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    I dont like her Carmen program. But Gracie will have to be essentially perfect to go past the Julia-Adelina-Mao gauntlet. Anybody's guess who will crumble at the key moment.

  9. #9

    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Posts
    4,353
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    3933
    Like others have said, a medal is certainly possible, but I do not know if its likely. A good Kim is out of reach by pretty much everyone. Mao and Carolina haven't been anywhere near close to clean, so they are perhaps beatable. If Adelina and Julia can skate very well, I think they judges would want to reward the home country with a medal. Gracie's chances would be better if this were not held in Russia. Gold has better programs than Adelina, and skates with more amplitude than Julia, but I would say Julia is the most consistent of the 3, this season Julia has been Building the Campaign, as Paul Wylie like to say.


    Gold controls her own placement over the rest of the field. Yes, Akiko has heartfelt artistry, but Yuna clobbers her every time with better technique and greater athleticism, why shouldn't Gracie. Ashley screwed up Nationals, but even at her best, I don't think she could have beaten Gold last week. Murakami has hammy programs and her technique leaves much to be desired.
    Last edited by FunnyBut; 01-16-2014 at 03:49 AM.

  10. #10
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    163
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    I think the SP will be key. If everyone skates clean, I think we'd be looking at:
    1. Yuna
    2. Mao asada
    3. Sotnikova
    4. Lipnitskaya
    5. Wagner
    6. Gold/Suzuki/Kostner

    Euros has shown us Kostner needs mistakes from the baby Russians and I have to imagine the same applies to anyone with a 3t-3t. This will be the first time the international judges will have seen Gold's new SP, and Wagner has done enough internationally the last 3 seasons to justify being given the top spot for the USA if clean.

    Should those 8 go clean, however, the long will be a bloodbath. Now that the Russians have evened out the playing field and Kostner's lost her grip on a guaranteed bronze, we could even see #8 climb up to claim third. If Ashley is feeling comfortable with S&D, and Carolina with Bolero, I'm thinking final results:

    1. Yuna
    2. Lipnitskaya
    3. Kostner
    4. Mao Asada
    5. Wagner
    6. Suzuki
    7. Sotnikova
    8. Gold

    Just a hunch- Mao will stumble on her axels and at least one other jump, whereas Sotnikova and Gold will be sloppy overall. 3-5 will be a close call, with Suzuki and Wagner making less mistakes but losing to Kostner's Bolero.

  11. #11
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    23
    Posts
    13,257
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Asada might win the SP if both she and Kim are clean in that phase since Kim is skating in an earlier flight. She wont be given a score as low as Worlds last year, but it probably wont be much higher than a 75ish, and Mao can score higher than that if she ever does a clean short. Although I dont expect a clean short from Mao so Kim will probably win the short anyway.

    I also couldnt see Wagner beating a clean Gold in the short program. In the long program maybe, but not in the short.

  12. #12
    Port de bras!!!
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Ravenclaw
    Posts
    30,123
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    34026
    WRT to Gold's SP--have you seen her terrible awful no good very bad Gershwin SP? And yet the judges put that ahead of a clean Julia. Julia's flutz hurts her. I think the new and improved SP is even more likely to place ahead of a clean Julia. But as mentioned, a clean Adelina may hold a clean Gold down just for the sake of some good ole home cookin'.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  13. #13
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    1,451
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I also couldnt see Wagner beating a clean Gold in the short program. In the long program maybe, but not in the short.
    Yeah I don't know what people are smoking but a clean Gold will not be beaten by a clean Wagner in the short. Little from this season suggests otherwise. I don't think Wagner beats a clean Gold in the long either. Momentum still plays a role in figure skating. Right now the pendulum has swung in Gold's favor. It can always swing back to Wagner but I doubt that will happen so soon and at the Olympics no less.

  14. #14
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    23
    Posts
    13,257
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by fenway2 View Post
    Yeah I don't know what people are smoking but a clean Gold will not be beaten by a clean Wagner in the short. Little from this season suggests otherwise. I don't think Wagner beats a clean Gold in the long either. Momentum still plays a role in figure skating. Right now the pendulum has swung in Gold's favor. It can always swing back to Wagner but I doubt that will happen so soon and at the Olympics no less.
    Yeah I agree. Gold at Skate Canada when she was struggling with consistency, had that awful program, and was clearly U.S #2 scored higher than Wagner has in the short program all season by a couple points, even at the GPF where Wagner skated cleanly with her triple flip-triple toe (and lost to Sotnikova who did only her triple toe-triple toe, even with higher PCS than Sotnikova). Unlike the long program which is still alot about the overall impression, being consistent and stable, ability to execute a wider variety of moves well, and smart element arrangement, the short program is all about the quality of your top elements first and foremost, and Wagner will never beat Gold on that, and as you said all the momentum after Nationals is now heavily in Gold's favor. Wagner will need to skate exceptionally well at the Games to even be considered now.

  15. #15
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Posts
    563
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    If all go clean I can see Gold sitting around 3rd behind Yuna and Mao, with Sotnikova/Kostner/Lipnitskaya not far behind in some order. Sotnikova and Gold are both looking great in the SP but that more difficult combo should help Gold if both skate well, even with a home field advantage. If there are mistakes and Gold is clean, as high as 2nd after the short might be realistic. Girl was looking like a potential medalist last week.

  16. #16
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    163
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    I think you are all overestimating the scores from the GP series. History has shown that the results of the Olympics are almost always an anomaly. Hell, heading into the season, most thought the podium was all but locked up with YNK-MA-CK.

    I think Russia will be pulling hard for Sotnikova and using Lipnitskaya as a backup, as Julia has gained a ton of momentum since her early GP events. She'll be be very close to Adelina in case the former bombs given her consistency.

    Meanwhile, I think many are overestimating the results of National events. They certainly didn't hurt Lipinski, Hughes or Arakawa. Wagner has 2 GPF med as and 2 top 5 World finishes... With a triple flip-triple toe, I think she'll edge out Gold.

    I also think you are all ignoring what I said in my first post: it's going to be extremely close. I won't argue with anyone who mixes up my top 8 prediction... I think we just need to keep in mind what the Euros SP just showed us: Russia 1-2 are ahead of a flawless Kostner. Where does that leave the rest?

  17. #17
    Registered User
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    256
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    Gracie's Grieg beats Adelina's Carmen. And I like Adelina a lot.
    In Europe soil (not Russia), a clean Caro who is Europe queen lost to a clean Adelina & Julia.
    In Russia, a American + new face skater can win over clean Russian skaters??

  18. #18

    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Greater Boston, MA
    Posts
    640
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    If all skate clean, I think Gracie's SP will be top 3 in Sochi. I really believe if she skates her best, only Yuna and Mao can beat her in that segment.

    Adelina might be close, considering how well she's done in the SP this season. But I still think in a head-to-head clean matchup, she goes behind Gracie, due to quality of elements, and also strength of program.

    As to the LP and overall winner, I can't predict, there are just too many variables! Yuna obviously remains the favorite, but she'll need to find some spark and motivation before she takes the ice in Sochi.

  19. #19
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    3,710
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    I'm still amazed how Frank has made Gracie look more like a real skater now then just a jumping machine. And let's not forget Lori Nichols after all she choreographed Gracie's new SP. Gracie does seem to do what her coaches tell her to do which isn't always the case with some skaters. Medal or no medal if she keeps her head on straight she will be a World champion one day.

  20. #20
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Sacramento
    Posts
    169
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    I was not a fan of Gracie's until the Nationals. I've come around (in spite of her lipstick which has nothing to do with anything other than it annoys me). I believe Gracie has a shot of medaling if she skates clean. I'm excited!

Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •