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  1. #841
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbk View Post
    Hard to compare skaters like that.

    But on the how many screwups can you have and still end up on the podium, some skaters are clearly ahead. Pluschenko, Chan, Asada, Kim, and Kostner are all skaters who've fairly regularly been in that category. I wouldn't say that Wagner (or Gold, or Meissner, or Flatt) was in that category even at their peak. For Wagner to be on the podium at the Olympics, she needs to hit pretty much everything in both her routines AND have several other skaters mess up rather significantly. I don't see her as "controlling her own destiny."
    Kostner?

    I agree that she has shown a pattern the last few seasons of peaking at exactly the right moment, but Kostner's situation this season is more tenuous than even Ashley's. She was beaten by nearly 20 points just a few weeks ago at Euros, and beaten by a relative unknown Pogorilaya at Cup of Russia in November. She's also been battling a back injury. I like her, so I'm not bashing her here. Just an observation

    Another point to chew on - Sotnikova has never beaten Wagner head-to-head whether the competition was in Europe, NA or Japan. I also agree that Sotnikova is suddenly surging while Wagner hit a rut, but what happens in Sochi if Sotnikova does make it to the final group of the Ladies LP, draws last and has to skate after the big guns have all laid down big programs? She's not the most secure skater. Just a different POV - this competition has more variables than I can recall previous Olympic competitions having.

  2. #842
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    Arakawa lost to Asada and Slutskaya at Cup of China and Asada and Cohen at TEB the GP before the Olympics and didn't make the final. She was beaten by Suguri and Asada at the National Championships before Torino. Kostner's on a recovery track and ditched a program she never was comfortable with. I think, though, her record at Olympics is more telling, and I hope she breaks that pattern this year.
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  3. #843
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    Quote Originally Posted by olympic View Post
    Can't believe the comments comparing Ashley to Kirk and Kwiatkowski. Flutzy, underrotating Hughes? Gurrl Pleeze.

    Ashley skates w/ good attack; the size and distance on her (f)lutz, flip and loop are quite good. She achieves good positions in her spins, capable of level 4's all around and her programs are interesting when she skates to the right music.
    Ashley would be the same skater under any system. Very good but not great. Under COP she would be a much better skater than Hughes, but Hughes was a better 6.0 skater than Wagner would be under either system.

  4. #844
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanfan1818 View Post
    I'm confused: are you saying that the rules for the Olympics, Worlds, or both were changed in the mid-2000's to select an eligible National Champion automatically? It's not true of the Olympics, at least this year, because no one is guaranteed a spot.
    Yes. It sounds like they changes the rules again. The rules change all the time.

    The athletes were behind the rule change. They felt being the National champion should guarantee you a spot at Worlds and the Olympics. They proposed the rule and it passed.

    You saying they aren't guaranteed a spot does make sense of what the commentators were saying this year though. So the rules much have changed again at some point. I'm not in a club any more so I don't get the materials for Governing Council and don't follow the rule changes as much as I used to.
    Actual bumper sticker series: Jesus is my co-pilot. Satan is my financial advisor. Budha is my therapist. L. Ron Hubbard owes me $50.

  5. #845
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    Technically, the policy has been on the books. But it is the first time it has been put into effect in the U.S. An appeal would be a deterrent for the future to ensure that the committee does not take advantage of any athlete because he or she does not have a coach. This is very simple workplace politics. (Anyone who is in a weaker social standing within an organization is more likely to be the first to be fired. We all know this. It's why we have unions, civil rights, and labor laws.) Bela & Marta Karolyi would have protested on behalf of one of their own athletes. There's no doubt about that!

    It isn't about what is legally allowed. It's about making sure it isn't EASY to treat one athlete differently than all those who have more political pull. Any athlete from the Broadmore or the Detroit Skating Club would have had a legal team backing him or her up. They might have lost an appeal, but they would have filed one. It would be a standard procedure. And the committee knew that--consciously or subconsciously--prior to making their selections. I'm not saying the members would have decided differently if she had a coach or was from a big club, only that athletes without those assets should know they are being treated fairly.

  6. #846
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    Technically, the policy has been on the books. But it is the first time it has been put into effect in the U.S. An appeal would be a deterrent for the future to ensure that the committee does not take advantage of any athlete because he or she does not have a coach. This is very simple workplace politics. (Anyone who is in a weaker social standing within an organization is more likely to be the first to be fired. We all know this. It's why we have unions, civil rights, and labor laws.) Bela & Marta Karolyi would have protested on behalf of one of their own athletes. There's no doubt about that!

    It isn't about what is legally allowed. It's about making sure it isn't EASY to treat one athlete differently than all those who have more political pull. Any athlete from the Broadmore or the Detroit Skating Club would have had a legal team backing him or her up. They might have lost an appeal, but they would have filed one. It would be a standard procedure. And the committee knew that--consciously or subconsciously--prior to making their selections. I'm not saying the members would have decided differently if she had a coach or was from a big club, only that athletes without those assets should know they are being treated fairly.

  7. #847
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    It's a USFS policy for selecting the US team. How could it be put into effect anywhere but the US?
    Actual bumper sticker series: Jesus is my co-pilot. Satan is my financial advisor. Budha is my therapist. L. Ron Hubbard owes me $50.

  8. #848
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    Ir was using what? What happened to the sc
    ore to beat?

  9. #849

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dobre View Post
    Technically, the policy has been on the books. But it is the first time it has been put into effect in the U.S. An appeal would be a deterrent for the future to ensure that the committee does not take advantage of any athlete because he or she does not have a coach. This is very simple workplace politics. (Anyone who is in a weaker social standing within an organization is more likely to be the first to be fired. We all know this. It's why we have unions, civil rights, and labor laws.) Bela & Marta Karolyi would have protested on behalf of one of their own athletes. There's no doubt about that!

    It isn't about what is legally allowed. It's about making sure it isn't EASY to treat one athlete differently than all those who have more political pull. Any athlete from the Broadmore or the Detroit Skating Club would have had a legal team backing him or her up. They might have lost an appeal, but they would have filed one. It would be a standard procedure. And the committee knew that--consciously or subconsciously--prior to making their selections. I'm not saying the members would have decided differently if she had a coach or was from a big club, only that athletes without those assets should know they are being treated fairly.
    And as I said, all the USFSA would have to do is turn up with the results of the competitions listed in the criteria and a few protocols decorated with the inevitable "<" and voila, appeal thrown out, and Mirai looks like an idiot.

    If Mirai wanted to go to the Olympics then she needed to be laying down the results last season and this season. Even six months ago, not just one good performance at Nationals. She knew that. They all knew that. They were told. She knew what the score was. The USFSA isn't bashing on her or being mean and nasty just because it's Mirai.

    And Mirai investigated the process for an appeal, and chose not to. What does that tell you? It tells you she knew fine well she didn't have a leg to stand on.

  10. #850
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    And Mirai investigated the process for an appeal, and chose not to. What does that tell you? It tells you she knew fine well she didn't have a leg to stand on.
    Also that her time and money would be better spent preparing for Worlds (should she be sent).

  11. #851
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    The way figure skating works, there really isn't any upside to challenging your fed over assignments. They hold all the cards. This is not necessarily a good thing. But it is the way it is. And challenging/threatening to sue isn't going to change it. I'm not sure what will change it but that is definitely not the way.

    Plus, assignments are not about 1 skater but about the good of the federation as a whole and not just this year but for years to come. This is one reason that I don't really have an issue with them sending Max Aaron to Worlds even though in some ways I think it's stupid. For Worlds, it really matters who you send because spots for the next year are on the line. So strategy comes into play.

    For the Olympics, nothing definitive is on the line. It's all nebulous stuff like publicity -- attracting fans and sponsors. For that, it's really hard to predict who is the best team. I can see the arguments for sending Ashley as she has the name recognition and the sponsors' attention. But Mirai is no chopped liver in that department. I am inclined to say that for the Olympics they should send the people who earned the spots at Nationals and let the sponsorship and public recognition chips fall where they may. Failing that, I think the arguments for sending Mirai over Polina are pretty good.
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    We need to start thinking about the onslaught of Russian girls coming up in the next few years so that's why i think it was wise to put Polina on the team. She needs the experience and no one expects her to medal or even make top 10 but going up against the big guns is invaluable experience.

  13. #853
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    And Mirai investigated the process for an appeal, and chose not to. What does that tell you? It tells you she knew fine well she didn't have a leg to stand on.
    It could mean a lot of things. In a litigious society, especially compared to Australia, the expense of an appeal alone can make people with many legs to stand on back away from exercising their rights. From Nagasu's position, it's like suing the Koch brothers regardless of the strength of her case.

    Figure skating isn't a timed sport where results and times guarantee specific events. She may have gotten counsel that appealing would effectively kill her career. She may have figured this out on her own. She may have looked at it from both sides and decided that she wasn't willing to have a Han/Kerry situation, where there was no immediate resolution. Her family may not have agreed with an appeal, regardless of the merits, based on their own values. There are a lot of reasons why she may have decided to drop that avenue.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

  14. #854

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanfan1818 View Post
    Figure skating isn't a timed sport where results and times guarantee specific events.
    In timed sports, specific times guarantee specific results at this event.

    But do they guarantee assignments to future events? Doesn't it depend on the policy of each sport's governing bodies?

    Do US federations for racing sports choose Olympic and other international teams purely on the basis of times/results earned at a single domestic event (national championship or Olympic trials)?
    Do they choose to take multiple domestic or domestic+international results into account?
    Are they constrained by international qualification requirements analagous to the minimum technical scores now required by the ISU?

    I really don't know -- do all timed sports choose their teams the same way?

  15. #855
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post

    I really don't know -- do all timed sports choose their teams the same way?
    No. However, most are not subjective procedures, except in the case of injury petition. Some sports (track?) use a trial, where the winners there are named to the team. Others (skiing, I think) use a series of events where points are earned at each event and the most points are appointed to the team.

    Skating is naturally subjective though, so it really doesn't seem out of line that the team appointment would have an element of that as well.

  16. #856
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanfan1818 View Post
    Figure skating isn't a timed sport where results and times guarantee specific events. She may have gotten counsel that appealing would effectively kill her career. She may have figured this out on her own. She may have looked at it from both sides and decided that she wasn't willing to have a Han/Kerry situation, where there was no immediate resolution. Her family may not have agreed with an appeal, regardless of the merits, based on their own values. There are a lot of reasons why she may have decided to drop that avenue.
    While not exactly the same thing since it's a professional-level, 100% objectively scored, not timed, and a larger team to field--I'm thinking of golf and the selection of the USA's Ryder Cup team. IIRC, selection is done by a combination of quantitative (a points list based on last year or two results) and qualitative (wild card spots based on team captain's judgment). It's quite a big honor to be selected to the team, despite the fact there is no prize money, just a trophy. I think there's no recourse if one is left off.

  17. #857
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    In timed sports, specific times guarantee specific results at this event.

    But do they guarantee assignments to future events? Doesn't it depend on the policy of each sport's governing bodies?
    Yes, which is why I didn't put a comma between "sport" and "where;" I wasn't speaking of all timed sports for all Federations. There are timed sports where as long as you have the right results at the right events -- ex: the top two time at the Olympics trials (and any international minimum standards)-- you go. It doesn't matter if you've appealed a decision as long as you can make the times.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

  18. #858
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    all the USFSA would have to do is turn up with the results of the competitions listed in the criteria and a few protocols decorated with the inevitable "<" and voila, appeal thrown out
    So, when are they going to do this? I would love to see the criteria for each athlete and what weight each criteria has.

  19. #859
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    Quote Originally Posted by leafygreens View Post
    So, when are they going to do this? I would love to see the criteria for each athlete and what weight each criteria has.
    There is no way USFS is actually going to release this.

    If Mirai had appealed, and it had gone to an arbitration, the arbiter might have seen it.



    I forgot to copy the link to the article, but it seems Canada's hockey selection raised some eyebrows. They have a lot of excellent players, and a few were left off the team. But the coach's kid made it. Probably it was justified, but there are only so many spots and the selection criteria is subjective. Just like US figure skating.

  20. #860
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post

    I really don't know -- do all timed sports choose their teams the same way?
    US Track & Field take the Top 3 finishers (provided they have attained the A standard) to Worlds and Olympics. Can't recall them giving medical byes either.

    At least with the World championships in athletics, the reigning World champion gets a wildcard spot.
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