I agree that she has shown a pattern the last few seasons of peaking at exactly the right moment, but Kostner's situation this season is more tenuous than even Ashley's. She was beaten by nearly 20 points just a few weeks ago at Euros, and beaten by a relative unknown Pogorilaya at Cup of Russia in November. She's also been battling a back injury. I like her, so I'm not bashing her here. Just an observation
Another point to chew on - Sotnikova has never beaten Wagner head-to-head whether the competition was in Europe, NA or Japan. I also agree that Sotnikova is suddenly surging while Wagner hit a rut, but what happens in Sochi if Sotnikova does make it to the final group of the Ladies LP, draws last and has to skate after the big guns have all laid down big programs? She's not the most secure skater. Just a different POV - this competition has more variables than I can recall previous Olympic competitions having.