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  1. #21
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    People keep acting like Yuna is a shoe-in to win in Sochi but she's rusty and better get more competitive skates in before she goes to the Olympics. It might have worked out last year for her but sitting out most of the season is making her vulnerable this year.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    i dont comprehend the psychology of someone who would rather accomplish a personal goal than win the OGM. She has already done a 3-3A Olympics. It is the OGM she needs, or failing that, a worthy OSM. She is not at the age to set technical records but what she can do is focus on showing her unique beauty. Obviously JMO.
    I believe her personal goal is the OGM, not the triple axel, but apparently she believes that landing the two 3A's will give her the technical advantage over Yu na and others. Her other jumps are not that strong. She has not skated a clean LP the whole season, I think. Even a 2-footed triple axel is more valuable than some of the easier jumps, probably because she does not feel that confident about them. Her two 3A attempts mean she is pulling out all stops to win the OGM. However, I agree with the majority here that she does not need TWO 3A's, but she does need to land the rest of the jumps to have a chance.

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    People keep acting like Yuna is a shoe-in to win in Sochi but she's rusty and better get more competitive skates in before she goes to the Olympics. It might have worked out last year for her but sitting out most of the season is making her vulnerable this year.
    I do wonder if not showing up may hurt her in relation with the Olympic judges. However in fairness to Kim its not like she's only showing up for the Olympics.

    In general though she is going to Korean Nationals because she feels rusty. I get the impression that she may really have had an injury that kept her out of the GPF. Honestly though in the lead up to Vancover she did 3 competitions, now she'll have two.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    I believe her personal goal is the OGM, not the triple axel, but apparently she believes that landing the two 3A's will give her the technical advantage over Yu na and others. Her other jumps are not that strong. She has not skated a clean LP the whole season, I think. Even a 2-footed triple axel is more valuable than some of the easier jumps, probably because she does not feel that confident about them. Her two 3A attempts mean she is pulling out all stops to win the OGM. However, I agree with the majority here that she does not need TWO 3A's, but she does need to land the rest of the jumps to have a chance.
    Based on interviews, Mao's personal goal is to have the best skate of her life in Sochi. To her, she believes it includes 2 3As. One reason could be the 3-3 wasn't working out for her earlier in the season. But it is also an emotional choice. She wants to erase the memories of her performance in Vancouver, where she regretted the mistakes in the LP. Her LP also included 2 3As, so there is that connection.

  5. #25

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    I just don't like the sound of the pressure she is putting on herself. To skate at the Olympics and face a competitor the likes of Yu Na Kim would seem to be pressure enough! Who can control something like a skate of one's life??

    I guess I don't think like an Olympian.

  6. #26

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    Debie Thomas made that mistake in the 1988 and put undue pressure on herself by saying she wanted to have the skate of her life in the LP. When she made a mistake on the 1st jump (not a fall) the air seemed to go out of her. I hope that's not the way Mao is thinking. I hope she really wants to skate her best and is able to accept the results, whatever they may be. I know that in 2010 her disappointment was more about not skating her best rather than missing the OGM. She needs to let go of that, and treat this as a brand new competition, which it is.

  7. #27
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    But I think it's natural for a skater to want to have the best performance possible before they retire (i.e. end on a high note).

  8. #28
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    I don't really think Japanese Nationals changed the scope of things. I'm thrilled for Akiko, and I do believe these performances will bring her to the fore as a medal contender in Sochi, but I still expect Mao to do better in Sochi. In a sense, this was probably the best time for a poor skate. I'm more relieved having her get her bad skate of the season out at Nationals rather than later at the Olympics or at Worlds.

    I do second what everyone is saying versus the 2 3A's. Just in terms of points, it's not worth it. Her original goal was for 3F+3Lo (which she landed < at 4CC last year). 3A+2T=8.5+1.4=9.9, while 3F+3Lo=5.3+5.1=10.4, or 3F+3Lo<=8.90. If she repeats 2A+3T, she would need to add +2T for the combo, so 2A+3T+2T=8.8. I would also bring back 3Lz. Overall, I think the original layout is best...

    3A
    3F+3Lo
    3Lz
    2A+3T
    3S
    3F+2Lo+2Lo
    3Lo

    I think making wild predictions based on this event is illogical. Evan Lysacek skated to a 3rd place finish at US Nationals in 2009 and went on to win the world title. As mentioned previously, Shizuka was 3rd at Japanese Nationals, and became Olympic Champion in 2006. Paul Wylie made the Olympic Team by 0.1 mark in 1992, and won silver in Alberville. As Slutskaya mentioned in a previous interview, things can change very fast in an Olympic year. We don't know what will happen.

  9. #29

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    I don't think Mao should put in a 3Lz this late in the game. She has always had edge calls on it. The 3f3R is OK but the second jump is almost always ur. Still, it's worthwhile to attempt that combination.

    She needs to do what she feels comfortable & confident about, but I just don't like those back to back 3 A's.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    People keep acting like Yuna is a shoe-in to win in Sochi but she's rusty and better get more competitive skates in before she goes to the Olympics. It might have worked out last year for her but sitting out most of the season is making her vulnerable this year.
    miki beat yuna during the 2011 world championship without a flip and 3/3.. it's possible that anyone can beat yuna.. plus ice is slippery..

    as for mao.. sochi is still a month to go.. it's not the end of world because skating at nationals doesn't guarantee you anything..

  11. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    People keep acting like Yuna is a shoe-in to win in Sochi but she's rusty and better get more competitive skates in before she goes to the Olympics. It might have worked out last year for her but sitting out most of the season is making her vulnerable this year.
    Even with the rust, Yu na is a phenomenal skater. More important, she is mentally very tough, as we saw in the last Olympics. She has solid 3-3 jumps, and she almost never underrotates. We don't know how the judges see her this season, because she has not competed in even one GP. However, if she delivers a nearly clean performance, landing all her jumps, she will be tough to beat. Not many other ladies have consistent jumps, and every error by other skaters is going to improve YU na's chances. The most consistent jumper this season has been Julia Lipnitskaya, and her PCS won't be close to Yu na's (although I love Julia and would really like her to deliver two clean performances in Sochi).

  12. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    But I think it's natural for a skater to want to have the best performance possible before they retire (i.e. end on a high note).
    Wanting it and making it the focus are two different things. If Mao wants to win the OGM, that needs to be her focus. Of course she will need to skate her best to reach the goal, but there should not be any confusion about the goal.

  13. #33

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    I doubt that most skaters will forget the OGM is the goal. Debi Thomas, notwithstanding, I don't see most champions just giving up after a mistake. Mao hasn't shown to be the type to do so.
    "Corporation, n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility." - Ambrose Bierce

  14. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    Based on interviews, Mao's personal goal is to have the best skate of her life in Sochi. To her, she believes it includes 2 3As. One reason could be the 3-3 wasn't working out for her earlier in the season. But it is also an emotional choice. She wants to erase the memories of her performance in Vancouver, where she regretted the mistakes in the LP. Her LP also included 2 3As, so there is that connection.
    You pulled words from my mouth. If I add one more point, she definitely loves 3A.

  15. #35

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    Yeah, but skating at the O's with one eye looking backwards at past "shame" can also lead to a repeat or new variation of the same "shame." I would think she should be completely focused on the present and the OGM. But hey, what do I know? (Please don't answer that Q. )

  16. #36
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    I hope Mao does well in Sochi. But I'm not too worried. Mao always managed to pull herself together at the most important events during her career. She might not achieve her goals but she was able to do well under the most intense pressure.

  17. #37

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    Mao is a fighter and that's one thing going for her. She really did not skate that well technically throughout this season. Her artistry helped her win competitions. Hopefully she will skate clean in the Olympics, so she will not have any regrets.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by bek View Post
    Honestly though in the lead up to Vancover she did 3 competitions, now she'll have two.
    Which is almost the same really. Which indicates she will still be ready and just fine. This years whole Grand Prix was forgettable, similar to the pre Vancouver Grand Prix which Kim dominated but which was also quite forgettable apart from a couple high 70s short programs from Kim. Nobody really made a mark except for Julia as the sensational newcomer, but not as suddenly a big threat to Kim (Kim would in fact have to implode badly to lose to Julia at this point in her career, even in Russia). Mao was the top skater of the season, but watching her winning performances didnt do anything to establish herself above Kim in the judges eyes I am pretty sure.

  19. #39
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    Mao was due for a bad skate, and better for it to happen at Nationals than the Olympics. Murakami isn't likely to get the kind of scores she got at Nationals internationally while we know Mao is in contention for OGM. I really think she may actually win Olympic Gold, I know people are saying there could be a surprise and Julia ends up winning it all, but to be honest, I see Yuna settling for silver or bronze more likely than Mao finishing below 1st or 2nd in Sochi. The judges are behind Mao this season and she has the momentum going for her, when Yuna didn't compete the whole season in 2011, she lost Worlds to Ando who wasn't even that great at Worlds but had been the top dog internationally that whole season and that reputation helped her at Worlds. I think Asada is in a comparable position this season and really feel that Kim is NOT a shoo-in for OGM this time around, I fully expect her to be on the podium, but realistically I think it will be in the silver or bronze medal position.

  20. #40
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    Miki made only 1 mistake at the 2013 Worlds and barely beat Kim who had 4. Still you are right the ISU and judges were a bit down on Kim after skipping the season on purpose and this helped Miki win. The ISU wont be down on Kim since she is not choosing to skip the whole season, she has already competed for instance, and was forced against her wishes to skip the grand prix due to injury. So there is no similarity to how they will look at her in 2011 and now. Her Worlds performances last year reestablished her as top dog, and since Mao has done nothing close to that this season she still is.

    I think Kim is atleast 70% likely to win the Olympic Gold. Mao I would give only 20% odds at most. I agree Kim isnt a lock but she is still by far the most likely winner. She could make about 3 mistakes and still beat any competition Mao has done so far this season, and she is unlikely to even make that many.

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