Chan should win even if his skates never leave the ice.
Chan could fall/omit/downgrade an element and still be the legitimate winner
Chan currently has enough TES base coupled with his skating to win
Chan will need the 4S or another high scoring element plus his current content and skating to win
Transitions are judged on Variety, Difficulty, Intricacy, and Quality.
As I understand it,
Variety would reward using different kinds of steps and turns, glides like spirals or spread eagles, nonlisted jumps, and body movements (arm, free leg, torso, head, etc.).
Difficulty would consider the difficulty of attaching a move to a difficult element, but the difficulty of the non-element moves themselves would also be considered -- including for those that are not attached to elements.
Intricacy considers moves immediately preceding jumps and other elements, but also moves on the exits of elements and direct connections from one element to the next. And any long telegraphing of elements would be a negative for this criterion.
KimGOAT has talked about quality.
He has a history of pulling off clean programs when he needs them to win the big events. None of the other top men are consistent, and I don't think a dark horse could upset a clean Chan because a dark horse wouldn't get the reputation points in the short program. As others have said if Chan skates a clean short the others will be hard pressed to catch him in the long even if they make no mistakes. If he skates well, I have no problem with him winning.
Looking at past scores, Chan's best SP score of 98.52 does not have a 5-7 lead over Hanyu's best scores internationally. Not counting his world record setting SP at the 2013-2014 GPF (though I don't know why the country in which the competition takes place matters for Hanyu but not for Patrick), Hanyu scored 95.37 for his SP at 2013 TEB, 95.07 at 2012 Skate America. If you don't want to count the last two SP scores Hanyu has received this season for a well-performed SP, then I don't know what else you can look at other than SPs in which he did not perform as well (or well at all). Even if Hanyu doesn't normally receive 45+ points for PCS in events outside Japan, a totally clean SP from him has not shown to be 5-7 points behind Chan at his best.
I get it, Hanyu now poses a threat to Chan and people want to convince others and themselves that Chan is so much better than anyone else that him going clean will be so ahead of other skaters that it will afford him a cushion going into the LP so that he can make a few mistakes (which is normal for him in big events). However, I don't think deluding yourselves into thinking Hanyu is no threat or doesn't "deserve" high PCS will help in that regard. If anything, just take solace in the fact that Hanyu isn't consistent.
Last edited by VIETgrlTerifa; 12-18-2013 at 02:44 AM.
"Corporation, n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility." - Ambrose Bierce
If both Hanyu and Chan skate "clean" I think it will make a difference which of the two is more "on."