Heavy favorites for OGM- how did they do?
Looking at past heavy favorites for the OGM, it seems that majority of them actually do win the OGM. Only a handful of strong OGM favorites have lost the gold.
I have listed only the heavy/strong/overwhelming/odds-on (take your pick of the word) favorites; not 'somewhat'
* next to the name indicates that favorite did not win the OGM
(I don't know anything before 1984)
1984: T&D, Hamilton
1988: G&G, B&B, Witt
1992: M&D, *Browning, *Ito
1994: G&G, *Browning, *T&D
1998: *B&S, G&P, *Kwan
2002: Yagudin/*Plushenko (co-favorites), *Kwan, A&P
2006: T&M, Plushenko, N&K, *Slutskaya
2010: S&Z, V&M, Yu na Kim
From this list (JMO of course), majority of the strong favorites did win the OGM.
Looking ahead to 2014, the clear strong favorites are:
Yu na Kim
In both pairs and ice dance there seem to be co-favorites although on paper one would be inclined to consider D&W (ice dance) and V&T(pairs), there are actually co-favorites, like Yagudin/*Plushenko in 2002.
Last edited by Vash01; 12-12-2013 at 09:56 PM.
Kwan was definitely not the favorite to win in 2006. It was Irina.
OOPS! I had meant to type Irina. I will make the correction.
Originally Posted by smarts1
Looking back, I don't think anyone thought that V/M were the heavy favorites going into Vancouver, at least this far away from the games. D/W had just won the GPF and no one and seen either DomShabs or DelSchoes yet. Even after Euros and we saw the two D/S's, I don't think V/M were heavy favorites, but just one of the teams people thought would probably be in the mix.
Since you listed Yagudin and Plushenko as co-favorites, shouldn't you have also listed B/S and S/P? They were dominating the season and the one before, as far as I recall.
And was Kwan really the only favorite in 1998? Wasn't Lipinski a co-favorite as well? She had won worlds and Nationals the season before, hadn't she?
I have to agree with aka_gerbil about V/M. For me, Domnina/Shabalin were the favorites for the simple reason that they were Russian and Russians tended to dominate ice dance until Vancouver. It was very hard to break through and win Worlds or the Olympics as a non-Russian team prior to CoP/V-M and D-W.
Having seen the test skate and Euros in 2010, the Russians looked very weak.
It looked like Dawis&White would win if the got good enough points in CD.
In 2002. S&P could have easily been the favorites, given the political climate, location, etc. B&S were actually not the favorites in 2002, but it was a very complex situation and I did not feel that they were co-favorites like Yagudin-Plushenko. Actually in 2002 Michelle & Irina could have been the co-favorites, but I leaned toward Michelle skating on home ice.
Originally Posted by ballettmaus
In 1998 Tara was definitely not the favorite for the OGM. Michelle had dominated the season, beating Tara every time after the 1997 worlds. Even though Tara was the reigning world champion, nobody thought that she could beat a clean Michelle.
I disagree about Domnina-Shabalin being favorites in 2010. Shabalin had a bad injury and it was clear that they could not skate at a high level. Their being Russian had nothing to do with the results, one way or the other. D&W were not quite there in 2010, and V&M appeared ready to make it to the top, skating in front of the home crowd.
IMO, there was no heavy avorite going into Vancouver. I think the season started with 5 teams that people thought might be in contention. It narrowed down as the season went on, but V/M did not go into those games as the clear favorite for the OGM.
I agree that V/M weren't the clear favorites in 2010. I thought they would win, partially because the games were in Canada, but I didn't feel certain about it. I'm not even sure Kwan was a clear favorite in 2002. It was pretty evenly divided between her and Slutskaya. Some thought Kwan would win no matter what because the games were in the US, but others thought that she would have too much pressure with the games in the US and/or that Slutskaya would finally deliver a clean program under pressure. Unfortunately, neither happened. I disagree that Lipinski was a clear cut favorite going into the 1998 Olympics. She was a favorite after winning 1997 worlds but then she had a very weak fall season, with the exception of the Grand Prix Final (which I thought Tanja Szewczenko deserved to win), and lost decisively to Kwan twice. Neither loss was even close. Kwan absolutely slamdunked her both times. Maybe Lipinski was a heavy favorite to medal but not win.
And were A/P really heavy favorites in 2002? They had a terrible, cringeworthy free dance that year (so good for them for pulling off a victory anyway) but they weren't at all invincible.
I actually liked Liberta free dance... It wasnt as amazing as their flamenco original dance, but still...
I thought it was terrible and embarrassing. It was something you'd have seen parodied in a Blades of Glory type movie, but clearly the judges agreed with you, kosjenka.
I hated that FD but it doesn't mean they were not the favorites. Nobody came close to them in skating skills, speed, passion, and they had won the world title in 2000. Even though FP&M were the reigning world champs, everyone knew that A&P were much better than them.
Originally Posted by fenway2
I guess I just don't remember them being heavy favorites. After losing the GPF (controversially, albeit) that season and worlds the prior year, they didn't carry an air of invisibility that so many other skaters on your list seemed to. They didn't even win every phase of Europeans that season, IIRC. And then there was that unfortunate free dance... So yeah, they seemed very vulnerable to me heading into SLC. In the end, they did pull it off though so that's something.
Originally Posted by Vash01
I don't think A&P were favoured and they knew it. It was a factor in that whole SLC mess. The judging the year leading up to the Olympics had really rattled them and the politics that season were at an all time high. B&K won the GPF to be dumped in SLC. FP&M were reigning world champions. Linichuk was doing Linichuk and pulled her team from the GP events citing "injury" to come up with a new program. A program which won silver in SLC. C&S were in position to take over once all the "oldies" retired after SLC. It was the glory days of ice dance politics.
Had no idea Liberta was so disliked.
Personally - Plushenkos "the best of" reminded me of Liberta
I would even argue those so called strong favorites who did not win gold, were not in fact strong favorites, but slight favorites at most:
1992 Browning- how on earth was he a strong favorite?!?! Yeah I know he had won the last 3 Worlds, but he had been out injured all year, except for Lalique where he fluked a win with crappy skating in a weak field. Fully healthy he barely beat Petrenko at the 91 Worlds, and needed 3 triple-triples to beat Petrenko with 0 (and with a mistake). Had Petrenko just done his usual triple axel-triple toe or not turned out of his triple loop he would have won those Worlds. If he had been healthy and skating well Browning still would have been favorite as 3 time World Champ, but he clearly wasnt. I actually would have been surprised if Browning had won, and wasnt even that surprised with his 6th place (although I didnt think it would be quite that bad). I was not surprised one bit with Petrenko winning, and with Browning having been out all year and having a bad back it was in fact the logical conclusion based on the last couple seasons.
1992 Ito- She was the favorite I agree, but not the overwhelming or strong favorite. Yamaguchi and Harding were considered huge contenders for the gold too, and Ito had been only 4th at the 91 Worlds. I wasnt surprised with Kristi, reigning World Champion, winning.
1994 T&D- They were not strong favorites. After Europeans it was clear the top 3 were all about equal, with maybe U&Z and T&D still just slightly favored over G&P, but G&P won the free dance at Europeans super easily.
1994 Browning- Was he the favorite at all? Let alone a strong one. He had lost to Stojko at Canadians, and Boitano and Petrenko were both back.
2002 Kwan- She was at best the slight favorite. Many would say Irina was co-favored or even the favorite based on that season of skating though. She had dominated Kwan all season, even more than she had in 2000-early 2001 when she lost Worlds to Michelle both times. The shock was Hughes won.
For me the only strong favorites who lost were Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze in 1998, but they were babies (experience wise) with almost no World competition experience at that point, so it wasnt that stunning they crumbled with all that pressure. It was too bad there was not a strong team to shoulder some of that pressure off them, they might have skated alot better, and won. Them and Kwan in 98 I guess, but Lipinski was still reigning World Champion, and had won most of the biggest events the last 2 years, even if Kwan easily beat her both times they met that year.
They werent favored politically but they were still the odds on favorites for gold. I am sure the bookies would have had them lowest in the odds by a good margin. They were the only team that quad who were in contention for gold at every major event, they didnt always win but they were always fighting for 1st, while the others moved around from 1st to 5th all quad. Then again maybe not strong or convincing favorites, which would make them not important in this topic anyway.
Originally Posted by bmcg
Yu Na is not a strong favorite. Mao is almost equal favorite with her now. Yu Na has like 55% to win and Mao 35%.
Originally Posted by Vash01
Chan might be the strong favorite still, but Hanyu is now a real threat, and Takahashi has an outside shot to win. Plushenko might have an outside shot if he gets some serious home cooked judging.
V&T are the heavy heavy favorites. Dont be fooled. The likelihoods of them making the mistakes they did at the Grand Prix final and inconsistent S&S going clean in 2 programs again is next to nil, and even if that happens in Russia V&T would win since they barely lost in points at the GPF.
Originally Posted by ballettmaus
No one- at least in the us sports media - was predicting d/s Russia for dance gold. For example Usa today sports illustrated both v/m. After euros and the aboriginal dance I can't remember anyone saying d/s were favorites except once but it was Tom Hammond! Lol. So with the worst ice dance program ever as of 2010 being a part of d/s plan to win gold everyone moved to v/m.