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  1. #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by jlai View Post
    Having just listened to the teleconference calls, I'm not sure that Agnes is more confident about herself than before.
    Sounds like she's trying though. In general I agree, but she brought up a good point which we should all remember - it is anyone's ballgame that night. A seemingly inconsistent skater can pull herself together at the right moment while a seasoned competitor can have an off-night. Anything can happen. She is in a good position to make the team, and while her strategy of ditching the 3-3 is smart if she wants to be an Olympian, if she really wants to go for the win at Nationals not only will she need it, but Wagner/Gold have to make several mistakes to open the door for an upset.

  2. #382
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    I'm confused, did Agnes say she is ditching her 3-3? My understanding is that she isn't going for the harder 3Z-3T, which is what she was talking about earlier this season. She can do a 3T-3T already, I don't see why she would ditch a 3-3 all together.

  3. #383

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    Quote Originally Posted by RD View Post
    ^
    I would not be surprised if Wagner does not win this time. In fact, I almost expect her not to.
    I'm curious why you feel that way, RD. Ashley's had by far the best season of the American girls and definitely seems the most prepared. Who do you see beating her?

  4. #384
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    Someone who has the skate of their lives?
    anyway, Wagner is good, but defending your title in an O year is super tough. Good luck to her

  5. #385
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    Quote Originally Posted by clairecloutier View Post
    I'm curious why you feel that way, RD. Ashley's had by far the best season of the American girls and definitely seems the most prepared. Who do you see beating her?
    There's so much riding on an Olympic year. She is defending national champ which is never a great position to be in pressure-wise. Fortunately for her, she can probably fall 2-3 times and still make the Olympic team, so she does have "wiggle room" that many of the others won't have.

    Wagner is going to be the center of attention (as will Gold, perhaps to a somewhat lesser degree) so it will be up to her to block out all distractions (and also any reminders of the 2010 disappointment) and do what she needs to do to accomplish what she wants. I point to Asada's result at Japanese Nats to say the beginning of the season means virtually nothing right now. It's all about who can deliver that night, and Wagner will be under the greatest amount of pressure. Her track record under such circumstances is mixed (IIRC, she has yet to skate two clean programs in this scenario). Wagner's mistake(s) will therefore open the door for someone else IF they step up. Last year that didn't quite happen (although many argue that Gold should have edged her out), but you never know.

    I think I heard Wagner say she wants an Olympic medal - well, she doesn't need to peak at Nationals but she does need to use it as a stepping stone to set herself up for Sochi.

  6. #386
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    Wagner's going to win Nationals - no doubt in my mind.

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    She has definitely built a strong case for herself, unlike the other US ladies.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  8. #388
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    I agree with RD. Wagner's under a lot of pressure, and Gracie (or even someone else) could edge her out if she makes mistakes. That being said, I'm not concerned about whether or not she wins the event. She already has two titles and is extremely likely to make the team, which is what counts. Even if Wagner places third, I don't think it would significantly hurt her chances at the Olympics, and it might even motivate her further.

    The only thing I'm wondering about in regards to placement at nationals is how it affects the team event at the Olympics. Will the national champion (and potentially the silver medalist) automatically be selected or will other criteria determine who gets to participate?

  9. #389

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    Quote Originally Posted by RockTheTassel View Post
    The only thing I'm wondering about in regards to placement at nationals is how it affects the team event at the Olympics. Will the national champion (and potentially the silver medalist) automatically be selected or will other criteria determine who gets to participate?
    See the relevant excerpt from USFS' Olympic team selection guidelines posted in this GSD thread: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=1#post3964922
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  10. #390
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    Wagner has all but earned the Takahashi treatment should she need it. She has also done the defending thing last season. I don't think her pressure is as big as say, Gold whom I believe will also be given some cushion should she need it.

  11. #391

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    Re-posting to this relevant thread:
    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    I was curious what the statistics show for US ladies, so looked some up. I can see why the field looks fairly open after Wagner. Gold is also always top 3:

    2013 Nationals - Wagner, Gold, Zawadzki, Hicks
    World Rankings (3 year cumulative) - Wagner, Gold, Gao, Zawadzki
    World Ranking (2013 season) - Wagner, Gold, Cesario, Hicks
    2013 GP standings - Wagner, Gold, Cesario, Nagasu
    Personal Best (ever) - Wagner, Nagasu, Gold, Flatt [2010/2011]
    Season's Best - Wagner, Gold, *, Nagasu, Gao
    (*omitted Karen Chen - junior, not age eligible)
    ETA this season's international high total scores using chipso1's format:

    2013-14 U.S. Ladies

    Top International Scores (through Dec. 2013)
    1. Ashley WAGNER, Trophee Eric Bompard (194.37)
    2. Gracie GOLD, Skate Canada (186.65)
    3. Karen CHEN, JGP Slovakia (179.08) - JR in U.S.
    4. Mirai NAGASU, Rostelecom Cup (175.37)
    5. Christina GAO, Skate Canada (173.69)
    6. Samantha CESARIO, Trophee Eric Bompard (172.70)

    7. Courtney HICKS, U.S. Classic (171.88)
    8. Polina EDMUNDS, JGP Mexico (171.21) - 113.51 at JGPF is new ISU PB FS
    9. Amber GLENN, JGP Czech Republic (164.18) - JR in U.S.
    10. Agnes ZAWADZKI, Rostelecom Cup (163.21)
    11. Ashley CAIN, Nebelhorn Trophy (162.39)
    12. Angela WANG, JGP Czech Republic (155.87)

    13. Mariah BELL, JGP Mexico (153.17)
    14. Vanessa LAM, Finlandia Trophy (152.28)
    15. Kiri BAGA, Coupe de Nice (150.48)
    16. Barbie LONG, JGP Slovakia (148.19)
    17. Tyler PIERCE, JGP Estonia (143.91) - JR in U.S.
    18. Yasmin SIRAJ, JGP Latvia (142.32)

    19. Rachael FLATT, Coupe de Nice (130.18)
    20. Hannah MILLER, JGP Estonia (128.20)
    21. Caroline ZHANG, Skate America (110.12)

    Re-posting the 12 Qualifiers for 2014 Nationals in Senior Ladies:

    Midwesterns top 4:
    1 Hannah Miller, Lansing SC 59.52 (1) 115.28 (1) 174.80
    2 Ashley Cain, Stars FSC of Texas 57.59 (3) 106.91 2) 164.50
    3 Barbie Long, Illinois Valley FSC 57.43 (4) 100.02 (3) 157.45
    4 Mariah Bell, Rocky Mountain FSC 57.59 2) 97.32 (4) 154.91
    http://www.usfigureskating.org/leade...017SEG034.html

    Easterns top 4:
    1 Franchesca Chiera, Panthers FSC 57.27 (1) 115.51 (1) 172.78
    2 Kiri Baga, SC of Boston 54.31 (3) 97.53 (2) 151.84
    3 Joelle Forte, SC of New York 52.86 (4) 86.12 (3) 138.98
    4 Yasmin Siraj, SC of Boston (2) 56.95 81.98 (5) 138.93
    http://www.usfigureskating.org/leade...016SEG026.html

    Pacific Coast top 4:
    1 Vanessa Lam, All Year FSC 53.66 (2) 100.94 (1) 154.60
    2 Rachael Flatt, St. Moritz ISC 51.61 (3) 96.62 (2) 148.23
    3 Leah Keiser, All Year FSC 56.92 (1) 89.71 (3) 146.63
    4 Caroline Zhang, All Year FSC (4) 51.11 82.83 (5) 133.94
    http://www.usfigureskating.org/leade...017SEG025.html
    Last edited by Sylvia; 01-02-2014 at 03:48 PM.
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  12. #392

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sasha'sSpins View Post
    Wagner's going to win Nationals - no doubt in my mind.
    I think she will place 1st or 2nd, depending on how Gold skates. Wagner will still be considered the stronger US lady for the Olympics though.

  13. #393
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    ^ 3rd isn't out of the question if someone else pulls it together...and in the event of a meltdown...OTP.

    Wagner is the favorite, sure, but she is not a shoo-in by any means.

    I do agree that even in the 3rd position Wagner will still be considered the top American of the field.

  14. #394
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    Skaters who can put down a clean short and long deserve a chance to go to Sochi!

    If Wagner/Gold skate like cra)(* and end up being sent, it will be a very boring and disappointing Nationals.

    (Although I can see why Wagner might be held up since she's the only US Ladies skater who has accomplished anything this season.)

  15. #395

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    Quote Originally Posted by demetriosj View Post
    Skaters who can put down a clean short and long deserve a chance to go to Sochi!

    If Wagner/Gold skate like cra)(* and end up being sent, it will be a very boring and disappointing Nationals.

    (Although I can see why Wagner might be held up since she's the only US Ladies skater who has accomplished anything this season.)
    Courtney Hicks (winning U.S. Senior B), Gracie Gold (medaling at Skate Canada and winning the SP over an essentially clean Lipnitskaya and Suzuki with a particularly great performance that I thought was well choreographed and performed even though many seem unable to get past their personal annoyance with the music she chose and I personally didn't like listening to it either), Polina Edmunds (winning 2 JGPs in blowouts with free skate performances technically comparable, at least in difficulty, with the top skaters in the world today, and qualifying for final with another perfect free skate there), Mirai Nagasu (medaling at Rostelecom Cup behind only Lipnitskaya and Kostner), and Karen Chen (also winning a JGP, beating 2 of the outstanding Russian "wonderbabies" in the process, and qualifying for final but had to withdraw) will be surprised to learn that they haven't accomplished "anything" this season.

    It pisses me off when people are so rudely dismissive of skaters' accomplishments, so I'm not ashamed of rudely dismissing those posters. And if you weren't aware of those international accomplishments then maybe you should learn about them before making a rude comment like that.
    Last edited by RFOS; 01-02-2014 at 05:47 PM.

  16. #396
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    I think Wagner is going to win this fair and square, with Gold coming in silver position. Had Gold moved to Frank Carroll over the summer and started out with better programs so now only in refinement mode, I might predict a switch in 1-2 position, but I don't think it will happen for Gracie this year.

    Based on how they have been skating (nothing to do with my personal likes/dislikes), my bronze medal pick is between Hicks and Cesario. If Nagasu is on one of her up days, she could sneak in for a bronze but my guess is she will end up 5th. Zawadski and Gao for 6th and 7th, they just are having their issues and I don't see them getting them resolved regardless of training adjustments or sports psychology sessions. 8th through 10th Cain, Edmunds, Miller in any order. 11-13 Wang, Lam, and first-timer Chiera in some order and the rest of the field after that. I doubt if Flatt will rank above #15 and I expect Zhang will end up at or near the bottom. Nothing against these last two skaters, it's just that this year's Senior Ladies' field seems to be overall stronger than recent past years, so I think the lack of technical firepower will cause them to sink in the tide. Siraj who ranked highly last year, has just not been the same skater this season and could end up in the lowest scoring group unless something miraculous has happened over the last 6 weeks.
    Last edited by jiejie; 01-02-2014 at 05:46 PM.

  17. #397

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    Quote Originally Posted by demetriosj View Post
    Skaters who can put down a clean short and long deserve a chance to go to Sochi!

    If Wagner/Gold skate like cra)(* and end up being sent, it will be a very boring and disappointing Nationals.

    (Although I can see why Wagner might be held up since she's the only US Ladies skater who has accomplished anything this season.)
    This is exactly what's wrong with selecting an Olympic team based on only the nationals. Anyone can have a really good or a really bad day, and the Olympic spot should not be determined by that. The goal for any fed is to place as high as possible at the Olympics (preferably at the top of the podium, or at least on the podium). To some extent I can even justify some manipulation to PCS to make sure the best skaters are on the team.

  18. #398
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    But there has never been an instance where a U.S. lady who was heavily favored in the way Wagner is this year has failed to make the Olympic team. Flatt in 2010; Cohen in 2006; Kwan in 2006, 2002, 1998; Kerrigan in 1994 and the list goes on...it just doesn't happen and it won't this year either.

  19. #399
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    Quote Originally Posted by RFOS View Post
    Courtney Hicks (winning U.S. Senior B), Gracie Gold (medaling at Skate Canada and winning the SP over an essentially clean Lipnitskaya and Suzuki with a particularly great performance that I thought was well choreographed and performed even though many seem unable to get past their personal annoyance with the music she chose and I personally didn't like listening to it either), Polina Edmunds (winning 2 JGPs in blowouts with free skate performances technically comparable, at least in difficulty, with the top skaters in the world today, and qualifying for final with another perfect free skate there), Mirai Nagasu (medaling at Rostelecom Cup behind only Lipnitskaya and Kostner), and Karen Chen (also winning a JGP, beating 2 of the outstanding Russian "wonderbabies" in the process, and qualifying for final but had to withdraw) will be surprised to learn that they haven't accomplished "anything" this season.

    It pisses me off when people are so rudely dismissive of skaters' accomplishments, so I'm not ashamed of rudely dismissing those posters. And if you weren't aware of those international accomplishments then maybe you should learn about them before making a rude comment like that.
    I think the poster meant that the top US Senior Ladies this season with the exception of Ashley have been underwhelming this year and she is right. Gracie, Agnes, Christina and to a certain extent Mirai have not been skating that well this year. Polinda and Karen Chen are Juniors.

  20. #400

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    I think the poster meant that the top US Senior Ladies this season with the exception of Ashley have been underwhelming this year and she is right. Gracie, Agnes, Christina and to a certain extent Mirai have not been skating that well this year. Polinda and Karen Chen are Juniors.
    I'm not surprised you would agree since you always seem to take a negative attitude in just about every post I've ever seen from you. FYI, Polina (not Polinda) is competing as a Senior at Nationals and is age-eligible, so she is in the running for an Olympic spot (at least officially, regardless of what you think of her statistically chances of getting one-- but if she skates her free skate as well as she has been all season and skates a good short program also, I'd say she's definitely in the hunt).
    Last edited by RFOS; 01-02-2014 at 06:44 PM.

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