Well the Russian Fed could only politik so much at each competition. Watching Sot and Lip back to back you will realize how much Sot has better elements and has the better overall package. Besides her insane flexibility, nothing about Lip's skating really stands out. Having said that, I am sure her consistency will allow her to make up ground in the free.
Also, I think Sot's more conservative jump strategy recently is a smart plan and will work wonders for her. She is showing clean programs and will be building good momentum heading into Nationals and Euros / Sochi.
I suspect whoever that places better between Sot and Lip at GPF and Euros will receive a huge GOE and PCS surge at Sochi.
On the other hand, think of Worlds last year and the Sochi qualifications. Wagner/Gold were really a long shot to qualify 3 spots, especially given Golds inconsistency and inexperience. Both Sot and Tuk were more experienced and they had a 3rd lady in Leonova who could help if either imploded (not to mention she was the reigning silver medalist). As the Sochi qualifier, it was by far the most important competition of this quad , and US ladies delivered against really unlikely odds, while Russian ladies really blew it when the stakes could not be higher. Ice is slippery.
Excerpt from USFS' GPF/JGPF Day 2 recap: http://skatingmagazineblog.com/2013/...l-day-2-recap/
Edmunds' FS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAOa6-TMTcwPolina Edmunds skated her best free skate of the season, earning 113.51 points, a score that was second-highest among the ladies. She finished fourth overall with 161.71 points and was just two points out of medal contention. Her program, skated to music from Peer Gynt, featured a triple Lutz-triple toe combination and an additional triple flip-loop-triple Salchow sequence. All three spins were Level 4.
“I was happy that I fought through it,” Edmunds said of her free skate. “It was a good program and I’m glad I did it well. Today I really fought for anything and I didn’t want to let anything go after yesterday when I let a few moments slip. I’m happy I did that.”
Edmunds had an excellent free skate, with no downgrades, and if she can combine a skate like that with a clean short then I think she still has a shot Sochi if the big names (Zawadzki, Gao, Nagasu) falter.
Yes, that was lovely. I hope she at least gets to go to 4CC. Do we know if she's guaranteed any Senior GP spots next year or is it too soon?
"Puccini cries out for spirals, but really good ones." ~ Dick Button, 1998 Worlds
... Well that was an uneventful splatful GPF performance from everyone excluding Julia... Ashley's lutz is worrisome. It's been quite wonky all season. She barely got off the ice on the lutz in her LP. And that jump layout is not working for her. Putting a three jump combo as the last jump element of your program is way too risky and it's not really working for Ashley. I hope they rework some of these elements before Nationals. Maybe her team is working to have Ashley peak around the Olympics and Nationals?
I'm also surprised Mao is going for 2 triple axels in the long...
Last edited by smarts1; 12-07-2013 at 03:11 PM.
AW - I was thinking the same thing about the Lutz: When she lands it, it looks really 'wild'. I wonder if she's working w/ RA on a proper outside edge in practice and it's throwing off her rhythm (?).
Regarding the 3 jump combo, I think an alternative is to put it on the 2d 3loop where she has a little more energy. I was going to say put it on the 3(f)lutz which is an even earlier jumping pass and she'd still get a bonus, but it seems to be a jump in progress for whatever reason and that's probably not a good idea! A final thought would be to put it on the 1st 2x, but then we would lose the beautiful split jump out of the 2x, and she's lose a bonus but still might make it up w/ a Rippon toe like in her LP from the last 2 seasons.
Oh well, I think she said she just wanted a medal here and she got that. But, a big opportunity was there for her to grab the silver. It would've solidified her position as a chief contender for the Bronze in Sochi, but I think it's now just a horse race among herself, whoever the Russian baby du jour in February will be, and Kostner (who I have a hunch will markedly improve in the next month or two).
I hope she works it out. She has plenty of time between now and Nationals, which should be less stress-laden for her than last year w/ the US having 3 spots and she's already defended the title once and has proven herself over and over to the USFSA. I think Nationals should be about skating for herself and working out the kinks looking forward to Sochi, not necessarily competing w/ the other US ladies including Gracie Gold. She has a spot in the top #3 w/ a subpar skate regardless, so she should just skate for herself w/ an eye on a bigger goal.
Finally, I hope this isn't becoming last season where she began to unravel a little in the LP at the GPF and didn't regain her form until WTT.
I actually think nationals will be tough for Ashley as a defending champ yet again. BUT, she only needs top 3, no need to repeat the win to go
^ True, but Gold has yet to put two clean programs together, and supposedly she is changing her SP. Wagner had some trouble at the GPF (not as bad as last year, though), but I think she can still successfully defend her national title. World's aside, she has been consistently bringing home the hardware since her 2012 Nat's win. Despite all the hype, Gold has been hit-and-miss since her Sr. debut.
I really admire Wagner. She called herself the "Almost Girl" and even though she admittedly isn't the best at any one thing, she successfully worked her a$$ off to become more than just the bronze-winning also-ran that she was a few years ago.
"...some people are moulded by their admiration, others by their hostilities.”
― Elizabeth Bowen, The Death of the Heart
I was thinking that maybe she should move the loop to where the double axel is and do a falling leap out of that. She could move the 2 axel to where the triple loop is in the program and add the 3 jump combo there. She won't lose much at all by doing that and it'll be a safer jump layout.
So something like this:
3loop (falling leap out of it)
---half way point
2axel-2toe-2loop (or toe)--I hope she does a loop. She loses so much speed when she does two double toes.
Ashley has done her three jump combo before on the triple loop, and it kills her GOE on that jump because she lands the two double toes at the end with almost no flow coming out. It would be better to put the 3 jump combo with the double axel and move it to the second half.
Fingers crossed that Ashley reads this and takes this suggestion!!!
Last edited by smarts1; 12-07-2013 at 07:28 PM.
That layout actually gets her a teeny bit less than her current layout (45.19 to 45.01).
I wish she'd learned 2a-1/2loop-3sal. The sal is such a secure jump for her, and it earns more points than most 3 jump combos that she could do. It would also allow her to replace the 3loop2a with a presumably more secure 3loop2t.
I would keep the current layout except for putting the 3loop2toe as the 3rd jumping pass and putting the 2a-1/2l-3sal in place of the 3loop-2a series. Then she would finish with 3 solo triples, which would be easier. This layout would get her 45.94. It's not a huge gain, but - if the 1/2loop -3sal was a possibility - it would be easier.
"Puccini cries out for spirals, but really good ones." ~ Dick Button, 1998 Worlds
The judges also love her 3loop-2axel more than her 3 loop-2toe. Makes more sense to go for the 3loop-2axel (extra 0.5 and better GOE). I think the 2a-1/2loop-3sal is too risky, considering the double axel is not one of Ashley's stronger jumps.
In fact that may be part of the problem w USFS. Russia gets their ladies out on the Grand Prix as soon as they are age eligible. We don't all the time. If USFG was seriously considering Edmunds for Olympics, she would have been on the Senior Circuit. The level of pressure is totally different. No country will send someone who has no intl senior experience to have their senior intl debut be the Olympics. Maybe minor countries do but none of the major countries have to do that. Like there is not even talk of Russia sending any of the ladies from the GPF Junior to Sochi. Even though they have only 2 spots, those ladies are not even in the conversation about whether Russia will send them- and all three finished above Edmunds.
I don't think any of the medalists from the Junior Grand Prix final from any country are even in the conversation about being sent to the Olympics.
Last edited by Blondie12; 12-07-2013 at 10:52 PM.