View Poll Results: Can she medal in Sochi ?

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  • Yes

    201 75.85%
  • No

    32 12.08%
  • 4th place

    32 12.08%
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  1. #221
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    Yu Na has scored higher in TES than Julia did at Europeans so I dont know what you mean by Julia is superior in TES. She certainly isnt if both skate their best and how they have in the past. She has a higher base value, but Kim still would top her in TES based on GOE. As for Mao, while she may not have reached Julias inflated Europeans TES if she skated her current program even semi clean she would crush it no problem. Her base value is higher than Julia, and you know a cleanish Mao would win on GOEs over Julia too.

    If all three skate well Julia would and should be inferior to both on TES and PCS both.

    If judging is fair Suzuki skating like Nationals will beat Julia too and if she doesnt something is wrong. With the Games in Russia she might not which would be a travesty. Same goes for Kostner, and possibly her own teammate Sotnikova skating cleanly with their most content, and at an inspired and emotional performance level like Suzuki had at Nationals too.

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by irinayunafanatc View Post
    If judging is fair Suzuki skating like Nationals will beat Julia too and if she doesnt something is wrong.
    Yuna, Mao, Suzuki, Adelina, should all be ahead of Julia unless they make errors. Carolina needs higher technical difficulty in order to join that group.

  3. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by irinayunafanatc View Post
    Yu Na has scored higher in TES than Julia did at Europeans so I dont know what you mean by Julia is superior in TES. She certainly isnt if both skate their best and how they have in the past. She has a higher base value, but Kim still would top her in TES based on GOE. As for Mao, while she may not have reached Julias inflated Europeans TES if she skated her current program even semi clean she would crush it no problem. Her base value is higher than Julia, and you know a cleanish Mao would win on GOEs over Julia too.

    If all three skate well Julia would and should be inferior to both on TES and PCS both.

    If judging is fair Suzuki skating like Nationals will beat Julia too and if she doesnt something is wrong. With the Games in Russia she might not which would be a travesty. Same goes for Kostner, and possibly her own teammate Sotnikova skating cleanly with their most content, and at an inspired and emotional performance level like Suzuki had at Nationals too.
    Didn't you read what I said. Other than Yuna and Mao, Julia has the advantage proven in her TES in international competition (I am not counting US or Japanese Nationals, we'll have to see what Akiko and Gracie can produce in front of an international panel of judges). At Skate Canada Julia's TES score was 70.46 points. My whole argument is not that Julia can be beaten by a skater who achieves better results than they have all season but that if they skate to their previous best level there's no way they'll beat her because of her technical scores unless she has a couple of mistakes.

  4. #224
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    Suzuki and Adelina would beat her for sure, if they go clean.

  5. #225
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    Julia's skating skills are not level of Sotnikova/Kostner/Asada/Kim but judges had to give her very very good transitions, choreography/composition, interpretation score. Her advantage is her program. Everybody can understand and get into her free (+PCS) and she is probably going to get standing ovation. (+PCS) She is 15 year old skater who wil be in home ice (+PCS) Only bad thing is pressure. We will see how she is going to handle pressure at team event first.

  6. #226

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToFarAwayTimes View Post
    Suzuki and Adelina would beat her for sure, if they go clean.
    I don't think Adelina can beat her even clean to be honest now. Adelina's lutz combo is going to get a major edge call even if she stands up because of the depth of the edge roll. Julia's lutz switches edge but Adelina's actually curves in almost an 'S' type curve on the ice. Because of it, since it is an international panel (even with the games in Russia) she's going to get harsher -GOE on it than say Julia or someone else with a slight edge change. Additionally, because of that, it's going to be very difficult for her to land well enough to get the loop combo off clean and so I am not sure that Adelina, with that combo, has a chance. I don't understand why they don't have her do a different one. It's killed her all season. The lutz is her worse jump by far and her batting average on it is really low this year. I think Suzuki can beat Julia if she is squeaky clean. Otherwise she won't have the TES to pull it off.

  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by lahaa968 View Post
    I remember everyone on this board going crazy over Elizaveta last year around this time, touting her as the soon-to-be World Champion, etc., getting carried away, only to see her fizzle out come Worlds. Julia may be young, consistent, and technically competent, but we have seen her falter this season (see: Rostelecom Cup). And while personally I don't find her PCS deserved (especially at Europeans), it does help to have Russian politicking on your side. We will see come Sochi. Skating at home at the OG will trigger some to rise to the occasion, and some to choke. I'm not yet convinced both Russians will rise...though I guess if anyone is mentally fragile, historically that tendency would point towards Adelina.
    You spoke about faltering but that has only happened in one program of 12 so far this season, but her technical difficultly still manage to eke out the victory over the other contender who also faltered. Julia had a TES lead of 5.29 points after the short program, and advantage she definitely won't have at the Olympics. However that lead and the fact that she still managed to achieve enough of her planned technical content in FS which resulted in a TES lead of 2.12 points meant that Carolina's 0.79 point PCS lead in the short and 4.94 PCS lead in the long could not beat Julia. Also Julia had the 1 point deduction for her fall on the 3Lutz so when you compare those it was a mere 0.68 difference.

    Admittedly at the Olympics the situation will not be the same, she will need her usual best to win, or place in the top three. Because at the Olympics no one can have two major technical flaws and win over others who are as just as good.

  8. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by zoe111 View Post
    I don't think Adelina can beat her even clean to be honest now.
    The scoring protocals of Europeans suggest differently.

  9. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by irinayunafanatc View Post
    The scoring protocals of Europeans suggest differently.
    Do you mean to say that Adelina would win going clean, because Julia also did not go entirely clean (three edge calls resulting in zero and negative GOE, plus zero GOE on her first 2 Axel. And have we ever seen Julia or Adelina go 100% clean in any competition - meaning no edge calls or underotations - let alone in the same competition?

  10. #230

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    Quote Originally Posted by irinayunafanatc View Post
    The scoring protocals of Europeans suggest differently.
    I think you may want to go recheck that. Adelina's first jumping pass was a planned triple lutz/triple loop which should be worth about 9.6 in base value. She didn't do the loop and had a minus 1.70 for the mistake on the lutz, leaving a total of 5.30 points on the table. Then the underrotation on the solo triple loop cost her -0.5, for a total loss on mistakes of 5.80. If you hypothetically give her full marks for the lutz/loop (which could be a stretch since she isn't able to do a lutz without an edge change so she's going to get -GOE, but to keep it straightforward we can say she gets neither + or - on it) and erase the minus GOE from the loop, her new tech score is 67.83 to Julia's 71.75. Julia was less than 1 point behind Adelina after the short so keeping the PCS as marked, Adelina's new total segment score for the FS is 137.43, which is still 2.3 and change behind Julia. Even if Adelina had received +1.0 on the loop, she still wouldn't quite get there overall as it was marked at Euro's.

  11. #231
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    A 3 lutz-3 loop is 11.1 points in base value. Since Julia's triple flutz in the LP got a 0, lets just assume a 0 for Sotnikova's clean triple flutz-triple loop she had planned. So she gains 6.8 points. Julia got 0.8 in GOE for her clean triple loop, and the base value of a triple loop is 5.1 (this went down when it was downgraded, in addition to the -GOE dont forget). Lets just assume for arguments sake Sotikova would have gotten the same. She now goes from 3.1 points on the downgraded/missed triple loop to 5.9, another 2.8 points. So she has already gained 9.6 points. She lost by only 7.36. However Sotnikova would also probably gain some in PCS for a clean skate, so the gap now is even wider.

    How would Julia ever beat a totally clean Sotnikova if she did her triple lutz-triple loop. Adelina's base value would be higher, her GOEs on the jumps are higher, her lutz and flip wont get high GOE but neither will Julia, while about equal everywhere else, and her PCS are always higher. Isabelle Reilly and irinayunafan are right, a clean Sotnikova would definitely win out over a clean Julia, and I say that as someone who doesnt like Sotnikova's skating at all.

    BTW for Julia and Adelina a flutz is clean. They arent capable of a lutz.
    Last edited by judgejudy27; 01-27-2014 at 05:26 AM.

  12. #232

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    A 3 lutz-3 loop is 11.1 points in base value. Since Julia's triple flutz in the LP got a 0, lets just assume a 0 for Sotnikova's clean triple flutz-triple loop she had planned. So she gains 6.8 points. Julia got 0.8 in GOE for her clean triple loop, and the base value of a triple loop is 5.1 (this went down when it was downgraded, in addition to the -GOE dont forget). Lets just assume for arguments sake Sotikova would have gotten the same. She now goes from 3.1 points on the downgraded/missed triple loop to 5.9, another 2.8 points. So she has already gained 9.6 points. She lost by only 7.36. However Sotnikova would also probably gain some in PCS for a clean skate, so the gap now is even wider.

    How would Julia ever beat a totally clean Sotnikova if she did her triple lutz-triple loop. Adelina's base value would be higher, her GOEs on the jumps are higher, her lutz and flip wont get high GOE but neither will Julia, while about equal everywhere else, and her PCS are always higher. Isabelle Reilly and irinayunafan are right, a clean Sotnikova would definitely win out over a clean Julia, and I say that as someone who doesnt like Sotnikova's skating at all.

    BTW for Julia and Adelina a flutz is clean. They arent capable of a lutz.
    Thanks for the correction on the math on the base values - it's late and I was too lazy to look it up so I just added. My biggest concern for Adelina is I don't think I've seen her hit that lutz loop all year. It's a massive change of edge that seems to have gotten worse this year. She used to be one of my favorite Russian ladies but I don't understand the strategy on that combo at all.

  13. #233
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    I think the strategy is simple. She is very ambitious and wants to go for the gold. Her only chance of beating a clean Yu Na Kim (or even almost clean) and to be sure of beating a clean Julia, and to beat Mao even with a problem or two, is to do that combination. With a base value similar or lower than Yu Na, she has no hope vs Yu Na unless she implodes, would probably not beat a clean Julia due to Julia's higher base value, and essentialy need help just to win a medal. She wants to have more control over her own destiny, even if it means trying something she is unlikely to go clean with. Similar to the strategy Mao Asada seems to be taking with her almost 70 point base value LP she has planned.

  14. #234

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I think the strategy is simple. She is very ambitious and wants to go for the gold. Her only chance of beating a clean Yu Na Kim (or even almost clean) and to be sure of beating a clean Julia, and to beat Mao even with a problem or two, is to do that combination. With a base value similar or lower than Yu Na, she has no hope vs Yu Na unless she implodes, would probably not beat a clean Julia due to Julia's higher base value, and essentialy need help just to win a medal. She wants to have more control over her own destiny, even if it means trying something she is unlikely to go clean with. Similar to the strategy Mao Asada seems to be taking with her almost 70 point base value LP she has planned.
    I guess that's one way to do it. It feels a little to me like a 'hail Mary' pass though. An all or nothing strategy in a way. The one good thing I have noticed is that she's been able to set the mistake on that jump combo aside and skate the rest of the program well in her last two outings with it, whereas before she seemed to come unhinged.

  15. #235

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    The discussion seems to have shifted to Adelina, and that's OK. Between Julia and Adelina, I feel a little more comfortable with Julia. Adelina has improved her consistency, so I think either one should at least have a shot at the podium. it doesn't mean it will happen, but it's nice to be in contention for any skater.

  16. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    Julia's skating skills are not level of Sotnikova/Kostner/Asada/Kim....
    that you're lumping Adelina in with the other three.

  17. #237

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Siouxs View Post
    that you're lumping Adelina in with the other three.
    It may be funny to 'lump' Adelina with Mao or Yu-Na, but I can't see anything funny on lumping her with Carolina. Adelina did manage to beat Carolina at Europeans in both SP and FS...

  18. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanca View Post
    It may be funny to 'lump' Adelina with Mao or Yu-Na, but I can't see anything funny on lumping her with Carolina. Adelina did manage to beat Carolina at Europeans in both SP and FS...
    The criteria being discussed was "skating skills" in particular, so I think Dr. Siouxs has a point...

  19. #239
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    I just hope if a Russian lady or heaven forbid 2 wins a medal it is by their own merit and not crooked judging being in Russia. If the event is judged fairly, a clean Kim, clean Asada, clean Kostner, clean Suzuki, clean Gold, maybe clean Wagner and clean Murakami, all deserve to beat Lipinitskaya or Sotnikova. I doubt the event will be judged fairly with the Games being held in Russia, so you have to wonder how many of those that in reality applies to.

    I just hope Russia wins only real medals at the Games and not scandal filled medals. Everyone accepts Voloszhar & Trankov will win the pairs, and Russia will win gold or silver in the Team, but beyond that it gets more dicey and the Russians had better deserve their medals with no question or there will be fury waiting for them.

  20. #240
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    I think a clean Lipnitskaya and/or a clean Sotnikova are very deserving to win an Olympic medal. I love Kim and Asada and I like Carolina a lot but frankly I'm perfectly fine with each skater's artistic qualities - ALL of them. Technically, Lipnitskaya's jumps are certainly not as big but imo the rest of her qualities more than makes up for it. Her FS in particular is the most demanding of anyone's out there imo. And she and Adelina plan 7 jump long programs to Kim's 6. I think she is still the best, but not unbeatable - she was after all beaten by Asada and Ando at Worlds different years. In the end, Asada might take it all anyway.

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