View Poll Results: Can she medal in Sochi ?

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  • Yes

    201 75.85%
  • No

    32 12.08%
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    32 12.08%
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  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by ToFarAwayTimes View Post
    That's why her botched 2As are receiving +GOEs? Or her PCS went up almost 10 points in season?
    With botched 2A or without it, the Euro's perfomance was fantastic. It's worthy to challenge top ladies. I was not a fan until I that FS.

  2. #202
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    Julia!
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  3. #203
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    Julia is going to be on that podium. Fer sure. I'm going to just sit back and watch when she medals - and possibly wins gold!

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by zoe111 View Post
    Her PCS went up because she has worked hard to correct a number of issues - particularly around skating skills and presentation. She is considerably faster now for example, than at the beginning of the season and leaps and bounds better than last year on both these two elements. Her second double axel in the Euro's FS was not botched. While a higher step up is seen as more of the gold standard, that double axel had a wicked amount of speed going in and coming out (thus the reason she could do such a good 3 toe on the end) and carried great distance.
    No.

    Her jumps (including the 2A) are tiny. That makes them both less impressive and easier to land consistently. If she's going to get overscored with undeserved +1s and +2s for jumps like that, it minimizes if not negates the advantage of vastly superior jumpers like Yuna and Adelina. The difference in both difficulty and quality is incomparable. Yes, Adelina has easier 3+3 combo but her jumps are still more impressive. Yuna's even more.

    If Julia can reserve special treatment for her minimal jumps, perhaps we should allow skaters preferential treatment on URs too. We might as well start giving everyone easy judging.

    Julia's SS have also not improved noticeably since the start of the year. Her presentation has not improved. What she has is good packaging and a determined attitude. She skates but she skates through the program with the sentimental music just going in the background. It's an illusion sold to you by a kid, the same way advertisers use kids to sell you their products. She receives sentimental "lax" judging because of her talent and age. She's not so far below the others like an Edmunds, she has talent, but it's not developed to the level of the other top ladies.

  5. #205
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    One factor that needs to be examined is that unlike all the other contenders YuNa will not have the Team Event to help shake off any rust that might still be lingering.

  6. #206

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToFarAwayTimes View Post
    No.

    Her jumps (including the 2A) are tiny. That makes them both less impressive and easier to land consistently. If she's going to get overscored with undeserved +1s and +2s for jumps like that, it minimizes if not negates the advantage of vastly superior jumpers like Yuna and Adelina. The difference in both difficulty and quality is incomparable. Yes, Adelina has easier 3+3 combo but her jumps are still more impressive. Yuna's even more.

    If Julia can reserve special treatment for her minimal jumps, perhaps we should allow skaters preferential treatment on URs too. We might as well start giving everyone easy judging.

    Julia's SS have also not improved noticeably since the start of the year. Her presentation has not improved. What she has is good packaging and a determined attitude. She skates but she skates through the program with the sentimental music just going in the background. It's an illusion sold to you by a kid, the same way advertisers use kids to sell you their products. She receives sentimental "lax" judging because of her talent and age. She's not so far below the others like an Edmunds, she has talent, but it's not developed to the level of the other top ladies.
    I respectfully disagree. If you watch old programs vs. now, the difference in a number of PCS component areas is noticeable. Additionally, jumps are judged on several aspects: 1) Flow and speed in, combined with lack of 'long set' up which enhances both the transition score and estimation of 'difficulty', 2) Lift, 3) Air position, 4) Quality of landing including flow and speed coming out. Julia's double axel (her regular one not the 1st one where she stepped too far into the circle) would get positive marks on everything except lift. However she covers quite a bit of distance. Her landings at Euro's except the 1st axel were all squarely backwards, no hook or curve or swing to them at all. If you slow mo her jumps there against either last year or earlier in the season, she is lifting her knee more and getting a touch more delay before she pulls in, giving them more height than she had and much higher quality landings. Her jumps are done with ease, no muscling, no long sets and come straight from choreography and continue back into choreography after landing. All of these things factor in. If you get hold of the descriptions for judges regarding how jumps are to be marked, it's all in there. Underrotations are not the same issue. If Julia's jumps were that tiny she'd be on the borderline of getting those underrotation calls frequently. She got one at Russian nats, and I think she worked hard to get them higher for Euro's. Note, Adelina's jumps are bigger and she got dinged for underrotation so height is not the only issue. Julia has tremendous air position as well.

    Presentation is clearly in the eye of the beholder I think. Lot's of people were quite moved by the program and if she'd just skated with it in the background, I don't believe that feeling wouldn't have come across. If she is 'selling us an illusion' then I'd say her presentation skills are excellent........

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by zoe111 View Post
    If she is 'selling us an illusion' then I'd say her presentation skills are excellent........
    She isn't selling anything, it's her team. The music, coat, her age, they are bashing you in the head to make you sentimental and take it easy on a talented little kid.

    I agree she's talented for her age. But I could name five other skaters that are better than her at the present time, Kostner not being among them, as her technical content is way too low this season. Julia has the coat and the music but she's just jumping through hoops on the ice while it plays in the background. Her program is an obstacle course. I'm sure the choreographer made it as busy as possible for her to distract the audience from the fact that she doesn't have any presentation skills, which isn't surprising given her young age.

  8. #208

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yunabot View Post
    One factor that needs to be examined is that unlike all the other contenders YuNa will not have the Team Event to help shake off any rust that might still be lingering.
    It could work the other way too. She will not be as tired as the skaters that competed in the team event.

  9. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by ToFarAwayTimes View Post
    Julia is good for her age but she should not be scoring as high as the top senior ladies based on her tiny jumps, relatively weak SS, and minimal artistry. This season she's being overscored and overhyped for reasons unrelated to her skating ... mostly her packaging, sappy people who always fall for "cute kids and animals" marketing, and pedophiles.
    Are you Skyfly in disguise?!

  10. #210
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    She does not have tiny jumps. It's wonderful to watch a talented, young skater who always fully rotates her jumps and does not fall unlike other skaters who have so-called higher jumps that aren't fully rotated and are just as likely to fall on them as they are to land them. So much for height being the way to measure good jumps and good technique. Obviously I don't mean all skaters because there are some who have more speed and height who have very good technique and nearly always land them well (Yuna Kim). Julia does have a flutz which nevertheless does not take away from the flow of her jump combinations and I believe if you check the protocols she's had two underotations this season.
    Secondly I enjoy watching her skating more than any other lady and it has nothing to do with the reasons you mentioned above. I am female, 23 years old, and do not think she is a "cute kid" but a young woman who is just beginning her skating career. She has many things going for her, technical ability, clean skating, and budding artistry. She is beginning her vcareer with a bang I might add. Much the same as Yuna Kim she has not been off of the podium in any international competition to date and you can back any of victories with her vast technical ability. If she continues to improve in the program components aspect of skating she could dominate the field for many year to come.

  11. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by Isabel_O'Reiily View Post
    She does not have tiny jumps. It's wonderful to watch a talented, young skater who always fully rotates her jumps and does not fall unlike other skaters who have so-called higher jumps that aren't fully rotated and are just as likely to fall on them as they are to land them. So much for height being the way to measure good jumps and good technique. Obviously I don't mean all skaters because there are some who have more speed and height who have very good technique and nearly always land them well (Yuna Kim). Julia does have a flutz which nevertheless does not take away from the flow of her jump combinations and I believe if you check the protocols she's had two underotations this season.
    Secondly I enjoy watching her skating more than any other lady and it has nothing to do with the reasons you mentioned above. I am female, 23 years old, and do not think she is a "cute kid" but a young woman who is just beginning her skating career. She has many things going for her, technical ability, clean skating, and budding artistry. She is beginning her vcareer with a bang I might add. Much the same as Yuna Kim she has not been off of the podium in any international competition to date and you can back any of victories with her vast technical ability. If she continues to improve in the program components aspect of skating she could dominate the field for many year to come.
    ^^^
    THIS!

  12. #212

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    Quote Originally Posted by Isabel_O'Reiily View Post
    She is beginning her vcareer with a bang I might add. Much the same as Yuna Kim she has not been off of the podium in any international competition to date and
    I think more the same as Mao than Yuna. Mao began her career with some unbelievable results, never off the podium for about 4 years ... until 09 worlds and after that. Never mind Yuna

  13. #213

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    Quote Originally Posted by Isabel_O'Reiily View Post
    She does not have tiny jumps. It's wonderful to watch a talented, young skater who always fully rotates her jumps and does not fall unlike other skaters who have so-called higher jumps that aren't fully rotated and are just as likely to fall on them as they are to land them. So much for height being the way to measure good jumps and good technique. Obviously I don't mean all skaters because there are some who have more speed and height who have very good technique and nearly always land them well (Yuna Kim). Julia does have a flutz which nevertheless does not take away from the flow of her jump combinations and I believe if you check the protocols she's had two underotations this season.
    Secondly I enjoy watching her skating more than any other lady and it has nothing to do with the reasons you mentioned above. I am female, 23 years old, and do not think she is a "cute kid" but a young woman who is just beginning her skating career. She has many things going for her, technical ability, clean skating, and budding artistry. She is beginning her vcareer with a bang I might add. Much the same as Yuna Kim she has not been off of the podium in any international competition to date and you can back any of victories with her vast technical ability. If she continues to improve in the program components aspect of skating she could dominate the field for many year to come.
    Couldn't agree more!

  14. #214

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    Quote Originally Posted by Isabel_O'Reiily View Post
    She does not have tiny jumps. It's wonderful to watch a talented, young skater who always fully rotates her jumps and does not fall unlike other skaters who have so-called higher jumps that aren't fully rotated and are just as likely to fall on them as they are to land them. So much for height being the way to measure good jumps and good technique. Obviously I don't mean all skaters because there are some who have more speed and height who have very good technique and nearly always land them well (Yuna Kim). Julia does have a flutz which nevertheless does not take away from the flow of her jump combinations and I believe if you check the protocols she's had two underotations this season.
    Secondly I enjoy watching her skating more than any other lady and it has nothing to do with the reasons you mentioned above. I am female, 23 years old, and do not think she is a "cute kid" but a young woman who is just beginning her skating career. She has many things going for her, technical ability, clean skating, and budding artistry. She is beginning her vcareer with a bang I might add. Much the same as Yuna Kim she has not been off of the podium in any international competition to date and you can back any of victories with her vast technical ability. If she continues to improve in the program components aspect of skating she could dominate the field for many year to come.

    I agree with everything, except for the 'dominate' part. There is so much young talent coming up (Gold & Edmunds in the USA, Osmond in Canada, and too many to count in Russia) that Julia will be challenged a lot. With her mental toughness she could still remain one of the top ladies, but it will be tough for any ONE skater to dominate, at least among ladies.

    When this season started, I was thinking that Julia was just a talented young lady, but I underestimated her will, her desire to improve with each competition. I have no doubt that she is going to improve between now and the Olympics (I saw Tara Lipinski do that in 1998). So anything can happen. I still think she is a long shot for the gold, but stranger things have happened. I really would like to see a medal of any color though. She has been the most exciting skater to watch, for me at least, this entire season. I just don't want to get my expectations too high because I might be disappointed.

  15. #215
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    Wow, I accidentally hit last instead of page 2 and ended up deciding to read some of the old threads from early in 2013 and it's incredible to read how many people did not think Julia would even make the Olympic team. Around the end of August that seems to have changed and people began to think that Julia would make the team but that she had no chance for a placement in the top 5. That's amusing to me because I knew in fall 2012 that she would definitely make the team barring a devastating injury and by January 2013 that she would be in the top four (more likely bronze or 4th though). Just a thought.

  16. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Isabel_O'Reiily View Post
    Wow, I accidentally hit last instead of page 2 and ended up deciding to read some of the old threads from early in 2013 and it's incredible to read how many people did not think Julia would even make the Olympic team. Around the end of August that seems to have changed and people began to think that Julia would make the team but that she had no chance for a placement in the top 5. That's amusing to me because I knew in fall 2012 that she would definitely make the team barring a devastating injury and by January 2013 that she would be in the top four (more likely bronze or 4th though). Just a thought.
    Being somewhat cautious about the prospects of first-year seniors is not an unreasonable stance, particularly after the trials and tribulations of recent newbies such as Liza and Adelina last year.

    In my view, such conservatism should be applied more often, so that we don't get the manic boom-and-bust frenzy about young skaters on forums quite so often.

    EDIT: Having said that, my own view is that Julia is blooded now, and has really proven herself over the course of this season.

  17. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andofanatic View Post
    I agree the Russian fed will push Julia, not Sotnikova, as their #1 after Euros. This will see Julias scores perhaps rise even more, and Sotnikovas drop. Julia still wont win if Kim or Mao skate cleanly. Mao wont skate cleanly, so that leaves only Yu NA. Yu Na can afford 1 mistake, maybe 2, but 3 and Julia will win.

    Yuna has no pressure to repeat her Vancouver performance,but she certainly can't
    afford a major mistake(if she wants to win or medal)against a clean julia. I don't see Mao skating a clean program.

  18. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by ToFarAwayTimes View Post
    Julia is good for her age but she should not be scoring as high as the top senior ladies based on her tiny jumps, relatively weak SS, and minimal artistry. This season she's being overscored and overhyped for reasons unrelated to her skating ... mostly her packaging, sappy people who always fall for "cute kids and animals" marketing, and pedophiles.
    jealousy is not going to help your fave win. Like I said before is Julia's Olys to win or lose.

  19. #219
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    Julia's Olympics to win or lose would imply if everyone did their best she would win. Which is hogwash, if everyone skates their best she will probably place about 6th. I do think she will end up with silver or bronze just due to her consistency, but she wont beat Yu Na unless she misses about half her jumps in some way. She could also skate perfectly and not medal if some of the inconsistent skaters like Kostner, Suzuki, Sotnikova, bring it. If any of those skate perfectly and lose to Julia there will be controversy, especialy with the Games being in Russia.

  20. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by irinayunafanatc View Post
    Julia's Olympics to win or lose would imply if everyone did their best she would win. Which is hogwash, if everyone skates their best she will probably place about 6th. I do think she will end up with silver or bronze just due to her consistency, but she wont beat Yu Na unless she misses about half her jumps in some way. She could also skate perfectly and not medal if some of the inconsistent skaters like Kostner, Suzuki, Sotnikova, bring it. If any of those skate perfectly and lose to Julia there will be controversy, especially with the Games being in Russia.
    I agree Julia is not likely to win gold in Sochi but when you say other skaters skating their best will place above her skating her best, what do you mean? For several skaters, obviously I don't mean the top ones-Yuna, Mao, their best TES is lower than Julia's by several points which means that she has the advantage there while they will have the advantage in PCS. So really it will come down to who performs the best in their strength and minimizes the loss in their weakness. Which is exactly what a competition should be.

    Furthermore when people say several other skaters will definitely be above her by skating their best I think what they really mean is if they skate better than their previous best they will beat her. How they have performed to date has not been enough to overcome Julia's scores, so assuming each skater skates an average of the performances they have had this season Julia will still be above them. If she uncharacteristically under-performs while other skate much better than they have been, well that is a completely different set of circumstances. No one can say with the level of skating this season that anyone other than Yuna and Mao have clearly out-skated her when you compare the sum of technical and program components scores in international competitions.
    We will just have to wait and see what happens on the night.

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