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  1. #1
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    Is Miki a threat to either Akiko or Kanako for an Olympic spot?

    Just curious as to people's opinions, since she is a former World Champion, has laid out her program and is actively working towards her goals this season.

    I'm confident she won't be a threat to Mao but do you think she is capable of taking a spot away from either Akiko or Kanako?

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    "yes", but imho she totally needs to rework her "Firebird" FS and feel it, skate from the heart, the soul, touch the audience (ala Yukari Nakano's signature "firebird" program).

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    No. Unless one of them totally bombs the whole season and then Nationals on top of that.

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    Not based on Nebelhorn, but we'll have to see how she progresses towards nationals. Her leg wrap is looking bad (which causes UR's too) and she's not LP fit yet.

    Though praying for Akiko to have a great season still

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    Yeah, I think she could be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    No. Unless one of them totally bombs the whole season and then Nationals on top of that.
    Kanako I think is safe. Suzuki is not immune to bombing though and has done so recently. Miki will need to step it up a lot from Nebelhorn, but we can see she can do all the jumps still, so it's more a matter of working on the spins and then training that FS with all the triples and adding more speed. I don't think it's that likely we'll see Miki in Sochi, but I definitely think it's possible. Also, once she starts skating better her PCS will definitely go up, being a 2-time world champ and all, so it all comes down to execution, and Miki has history and consistency on her side whereas Akiko doesn't so much.

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    MIki, after a long absence, still has her jumps. Can she develop her stamina by January (or whenever they name the Japanese Oly team)? She is a two time world champion and if she skates well, she could be a threat to either Kanako or Akiko, depending how these two do during the GP series and the Japanese nationals.

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    Absolutely no way Kanako does not make the team IMHO (and Mao goes without saying). I think the battle is really for the 3rd spot. I could see Murakami end up being only the 3rd Japanese in terms of final finish at the Games mind you, but I still cant see her not making it.

    I would be quite surprised at this point if Ando made it. However if Ando does get that spot it will be Suzuki who is bumped. There is also a chance one of the younger skaters will get that 3rd spot, again at Suzuki's expense. Right now I would pick the same team as the last 2 Worlds but Suzuki is the most vurnerable.

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    At this moment, no. In three months, if she keeps getting stronger at this rate, very possibly. But it sounds like the Japanese Fed has stacked the odds against her. A podium finish at Japanese nats seems very possible, but a win? Against "Japan's Hope," Mao Asada?

    I hate to think of Miki bumping Akiko and I love Kanako too, but Miki's comeback looks to be heroic, even historic. The Japanese selection will be at least as tense for me as the American one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    At this moment, no. In three months, if she keeps getting stronger at this rate, very possibly. But it sounds like the Japanese Fed has stacked the odds against her. A podium finish at Japanese nats seems very possible, but a win? Against "Japan's Hope," Mao Asada?

    I hate to think of Miki bumping Akiko and I love Kanako too, but Miki's comeback looks to be heroic, even historic. The Japanese selection will be at least as tense for me as the American one.
    And that's my reason for saying no and if she did win it would be Akiko who gets the bump.

  11. #11

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    Yes, not because of her current condition is competitive, but because her current conditions indicates she has an exceptional level of natural ability. With some general conditioning, she will be able to improve her TES, GOEs, and PCS simultaneously. I think a second Lutz and Loop are forthcoming, with decisions about combinations soon after.

    The big question is only her 3F. Will she use it or will she construct a program without it?
    Last edited by bardtoob; 09-29-2013 at 01:41 AM.

  12. #12

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    I think not. Miki was lovely at Nebelhorn but Japan has at least 3 ladies who are stronger.
    Dick Button Historical Quote of the Month: "Good for you, Lucinda Ruh!"

  13. #13
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    I had forgotten the part about the JSF saying she needs to win Nationals to make the team (something I think they will stand by too as she wont have any international success recent to go by). Had it not been for that I would have given her 20-25% but if she really needs to win Nationals which it seems she does as they already proclaimed that and she has no chance to impress in the grand prixs to give a different perspective, it is more like 1-3%. Virtually no way she wins Nationals.

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    At this point I'd say Miyahara could play the biggest spoiler and snatch up a Sochi spot. I could see Miki taking a medal at Japanese Nats.(Bronze) if a couple of ladies have an off night, but I don't think that'd be enough, especially if she doesn't get the chance to compete on the GP series.

    If you look back. What earned Miki her last two Olympic trips were her previous results, not what she actually did at Nationals. Because Nebelhorn was her first outing in 2.5 years she doesn't have that luxury this time around, she'd really have to get out there and CONVINCINGLY win a couple of Senior B's (since there is no GP for her) So even though there might be a chance for her. I don't see her as a big threat for Sochi.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Kanako I think is safe. Suzuki is not immune to bombing though and has done so recently. Miki will need to step it up a lot from Nebelhorn, but we can see she can do all the jumps still, so it's more a matter of working on the spins and then training that FS with all the triples and adding more speed. I don't think it's that likely we'll see Miki in Sochi, but I definitely think it's possible. Also, once she starts skating better her PCS will definitely go up, being a 2-time world champ and all, so it all comes down to execution, and Miki has history and consistency on her side whereas Akiko doesn't so much.
    Kanako isn't exactly safe either. She has had many poor LPs in the past and only recently (this past season) was able to start skating more decent LPs. We haven't seen Kanako yet this season (does anyone know if she's skated recently?), so we don't know where she's at and how her consistency is doing.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DimaToe View Post
    At this point I'd say Miyahara could play the biggest spoiler and snatch up a Sochi spot. I could see Miki taking a medal at Japanese Nats.(Bronze) if a couple of ladies have an off night, but I don't think that'd be enough, especially if she doesn't get the chance to compete on the GP series.

    If you look back. What earned Miki her last two Olympic trips were her previous results, not what she actually did at Nationals. Because Nebelhorn was her first outing in 2.5 years she doesn't have that luxury this time around, she'd really have to get out there and CONVINCINGLY win a couple of Senior B's (since there is no GP for her) So even though there might be a chance for her. I don't see her as a big threat for Sochi.
    I think even if Miyahara gets on the podium at Nationals, JSF won't send her. Not enough rep power (i.e. the judges don't appreciate her amazing transitions) and not enough experience. Plus Miyahara tends to be hot or cold in competitions.

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    I would say no.

    I agree with others that Asada and Murakami are locked. Three months would be enough for Ando for building up stamina. But I don't see her skating, which was not great in the first place, improve a lot in that span, making it improbable for her regaining the PCS she was receiving before. She may improve a bit with her presentation as she builds stamina and mileage on her programs, but I think it wouldn't be enough.

    IMO, the National podium probability, also competitive potential at the Olympics, would be: Murakami > Suzuki > Ando. I think Murakami earned a lot of reputation from the judges at the last worlds.

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    Is JPN using just Nationals or the whole season to decide the Sochi team?

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I had forgotten the part about the JSF saying she needs to win Nationals to make the team (something I think they will stand by too as she wont have any international success recent to go by). Had it not been for that I would have given her 20-25% but if she really needs to win Nationals which it seems she does as they already proclaimed that and she has no chance to impress in the grand prixs to give a different perspective, it is more like 1-3%. Virtually no way she wins Nationals.
    I forgot about that too. I change my answer to no, since I doubt she's going to beat Mao at Nationals.

  20. #20
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    Based on the past season, Akiko and Kanako both have a consistent 3-3 in the SP, and 7-triple FP's.

    From what Miki showed at Nebelhorn, it was good, but it would take a major falling out on Akiko or Kanako to let her on the team based on what we've seen so far. She only had the 3Lz-2Lo and 3Lo in the SP, and in the free only 6 triples planned, and only 1 lutz.


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