View Poll Results: Can a clean Yu na Kim be beaten in the 2014 Oly?

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  • Absolutely not

    59 43.07%
  • Yes, but highly unlikely

    60 43.80%
  • Yes, she can be beaten

    18 13.14%
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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    One good question is who would have a better chance to beat a clean Kim, a clean Mao or clean Kostner. Not who is more likely to skate cleanly between Mao and Kostner which is a seperate topic, but in the unlikely hypothetical one of them did manage to, which would have the better chance to beat a clean Kim.

    I would say Mao since her base value is about 10 points higher. This despite that I am sure a clean Mao would get the lowest PCS and GOE of all 3 of these if they went clean, but her base value would still give her more chance than Kostner would have. I think Kostner is liked by the judges more than Mao is right now, and in many ways is just a better skater than Mao is right now, but her base value isnt even higher than Kim's, and I dont think anyone can beat a clean Kim without having a higher base value. I am not even saying I think a clean Mao would beat a clean Kim, just that I think her chances to do would be higher than a clean Kostner to beat a clean Kim for the reasons stated.

    Ultimately I dont expect either Mao or Kostner to skate cleanly though and Kim will win in a blowout, even if she isnt perfect herself. I do think Mao and Kostner will hold it together to the extent of a "pretty good" performance, which would be enough to almost shut the door on the rest, unless Wagner has the skate of her life. I have a feeling Wagner is the only one who might break up the expected podium, not one of the young guns.
    I voted no. However, if I'm proven wrong, I agree with the above that it would be with Asada than with Kostner. But, for Asada to have any chance she would need rotated 3-3s and 3a's, given that she can't match Kim's GOE or PCS. That said, I can't even remember when was the last time Asada had a rotated 3-3, let alone a rotated 3-3 AND a rotated 3a. It would be a daunting task for her.

    For Kostner, I don't think she would have advantage over a clean Kim in BV, GOE or PCS. I agree with what Eteri Tutberidze said about Kostner (Eteri-Tutberidze-interview), about the tade-off between her speed/consistency and some PCS/GOE bullets that she made some compromises with. The only reason she had a higher PCS in SP during the last worlds was that she was the reigning champ going in and Kim skated way before the final groups and was undermarked despite the clean skate vis-a-vis Kostner.

  2. #22
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    4 triple SP and 8 triple FS by Mao could do it (no URs and 3a in both programs)
    Kostner with an upgraded combo (3f-3t) in the SP and a 7 triple FS could do it

    But how likely are such things to happen? Very, very unlikely. No one else can even come close to beating a clean Yu-Na.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by pat decaro View Post
    I voted no. However, if I'm proven wrong, I agree with the above that it would be with Asada than with Kostner. But, for Asada to have any chance she would need rotated 3-3s and 3a's, given that she can't match Kim's GOE or PCS. That said, I can't even remember when was the last time Asada had a rotated 3-3, let alone a rotated 3-3 AND a rotated 3a. It would be a daunting task for her.

    For Kostner, I don't think she would have advantage over a clean Kim in BV, GOE or PCS. I agree with what Eteri Tutberidze said about Kostner (Eteri-Tutberidze-interview), about the tade-off between her speed/consistency and some PCS/GOE bullets that she made some compromises with. The only reason she had a higher PCS in SP during the last worlds was that she was the reigning champ going in and Kim skated way before the final groups and was undermarked despite the clean skate vis-a-vis Kostner.

    The thing with Kostner is I could see her coming very close to Kim in all of BV, GOE or PCS if both went clean. I just dont think she could actually get ahead in any of them. Being equal or close to equal in everything still wont let you beat someone. It is pretty much impossible to beat Kim in GOE and PCS if she has a performance like Worlds and gets littered with +3s and some 10s in PC categories. So that leaves base value and their combined base values last year had Kim slightly ahead. Could Kostner get ahead in combined base value with a triple flip-triple toe in the short, given that she tries 7 triples in the LP vs 6 for Kim? Maybe then she would have a small chance. She will have to do even more this year to potentially beat Kim than she would have last year. She isnt the reigning World Champion anymore, which removed her only intangible edge over Kim.

    Asada cant compete on equal footing with either Kim or Kostner in GOE and PCS at this point, but she still gets good ones, better than pretty much everyone else. That with a much harder program might push her over Kim if both were clean. Or maybe not.

  4. #24
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    Can a clean Yu na Kim be beaten in the 2014 Oly?

    yes.. and i'm a yuna bot. reason? ice is slippery and a clean mao and kostner will do, especially it will be held in a European country.

  5. #25
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    IMO a clean Carolina would be such an epic achievement (being that it's never happened before) and if she managed to do it at the Olympics, I think that could be a game changer. If Carolina's very first time doing it was her absolute last performance of her competitive career, I think the judges would really reward her.

    Carolina has a way of grabbing a crowd and if she skated perfectly, I think the judges would get a case of the happy piddles (just like they did with Yu-Na last season) and start dropping +3s and 10s everywhere. It'd be a narrow margin of victory but I think she could do it. Her PCS would go through the roof. I feel Carolina is superior in PCS at this point in their careers. We've seen what kind of PCS a clean Yu-Na gets but we've never seen what kind of PCS a clean Carolina would get; my guess is they'd be greater than or at least equal to Yu-Na. In terms of GOE, Carolina's jumps are almost what-and-what with Yu-Na's when she's on so I don't feel there would be a huge discrepancy there either. A 7-triple program to Yu-Na's 6-triples could help to make up whatever difference was left. It would be very close...

    Carolina's never had that clean performance...who's to say it won't happen at the Olympics? Very unlikely but definitely not impossible. Then again there's no guarantee Yu-Na will skate well at the Olympics either. She's never had a truly bad competition but who's to say it won't happen in Sochi? Again, very unlikely but definitely not impossible. We'll never know what will happen until it happens.

    Of course the highest odds bet is Yu-Na for gold and either Carolina or Mao for silver...but stranger things have happened at the Olympics...

  6. #26
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    History will be made in Sochi when for the first time ever three ladies break 200 in what will be regarded as the greatest Olympics Ladies Figure Skating competition ever. But when all is said and done the same three ladies from this past worlds will find themselves once again atop the podium except for one thing, the order will be different as one of them slips in order. I don't want to predict the order but I have a strong feeling that when it is all said and done it wont be about who didn't "live up" to the event, it will be about who had the best strategy coming in to the games.

  7. #27
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    Kim, Asada and Rochette broke 200 in Vancouver

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yunabot View Post
    History will be made in Sochi when for the first time ever three ladies break 200 in what will be regarded as the greatest Olympics Ladies Figure Skating competition ever. But when all is said and done the same three ladies from this past worlds will find themselves once again atop the podium except for one thing, the order will be different as one of them slips in order. I don't want to predict the order but I have a strong feeling that when it is all said and done it wont be about who didn't "live up" to the event, it will be about who had the best strategy coming in to the games.
    Well, from your name it is pretty clear who you think will win so you have just predicted the order. I'm guessing you think Mao wil execute her high base value strategy well enough to win silver over Carolina. No need to be so mysterious about it. It's only a skating board. Welcome to the forum, btw!

  9. #29
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    I voted for no. Mao and Carolina should have clean programs with quads to beat Kim. She already has an advantage in PCS and GOE that cannot be surpasses by competitors, unless they skate a program out of this world, both technically as artistically.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    Well, from your name it is pretty clear who you think will win so you have just predicted the order. I'm guessing you think Mao wil execute her high base value strategy well enough to win silver over Carolina. No need to be so mysterious about it. It's only a skating board. Welcome to the forum, btw!
    Actually, what I am saying is that only two of these women can drop and/or two of these women can rise. What that translates to is either Yu-Na or Carolina are going to lose their spot. I don't want to name names because, you are right, I do have a favourite and I don't want to tempt the skating gods but... I also have a feeling. Also, I didn't realize Joanie broke 200. Good for her! Anyway my point was that in this competition no one will back into gold and the one who wins it will have truly earned it because the point difference will not be as it was in Vancouver because all three ladies will have skated brilliantly and the difference will be determined by who had the best strategy; the best base value, included, excluded jumps, etc.
    Last edited by Yunabot; 09-25-2013 at 01:17 PM.

  11. #31
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    ^^ I can't get clearly what you said, but the poll question is what would be the chance a clean Kim do not end up winning.

    Anyway, in reality I won't be surprised to see a completely unexpected podium. Actually, I think it's unlikely all three of Kim, Kostner and Asada end up on the podium at Sochi. Maybe we could see an American lady, a Russian lady, or a Japanese lady other than Asada getting a medal. I think it's also definitely possible that we might see only ONE of the big three on the podium.

  12. #32
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    I agree on that as well. The only sure bet I think is Kim winning a medal of some color (even if not neccessarily the gold). She is simply too consistent to lose to anyone in the field besides Kostner or Asada even on her worst day. If there were 2 surprises on the podium it would just mean Kim (and now a certain winner as the only two who could possibly beat her are apparently out of the medals now) and 2 surprises with her.

  13. #33
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    One intriguing thing is the poll results though. Had this poll been done before Vancouver "No" would probably have gotten atleast 85% of the votes, "Yes, but unlikely" 12% and "Yes" only about 3%. Before Vancouver everyone knew there was no chance of a clean Kim losing, even if Mao landed all her triple axels and whatever else (meanwhile even a clean Kostner wasnt considered a factor for any medal in Vancouver). This shows that despite her dominant win at Worlds and despite being the heavy favorite to win the Olympic Gold, she is not viewed as being impossible to beat in an all clean competition nearly to the extent she would have been in 2010. So it seems the belief is alot has changed in 4 years, even if on the surface things look very much the same. Quite interesting.

  14. #34
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    ^^ I think the main reason is Kim now doesn't have the same advantage in TES as before. That's mainly due to the strange rule change made after Vancouver which reduced the GOE scale for the triples except the axel and another set of rule change that forced her to leave out the 2a-3. I think it's a bad rule. It's good to reward a skater who goes for all types of triples, but why force a skater to give up something she's really good at?

    Another reason would be the late found consistency in Kostner. She's skating like a 6.0 skater and I think it's nonsense she's earning the same kind of PCS as Kim does, but it seems she has a lot more believers now. As for Asada, I think the gap between her and Kim is wider now than pre-Vancouver.

    I felt Kim at the last worlds was stronger than ever. She looked more calm, confident and transcendent than ever before. Barring injury, she's a virtual lock for a medal at Sochi. If clean, for a gold I think.

  15. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by pat decaro View Post
    ^^ I can't get clearly what you said, but the poll question is what would be the chance a clean Kim do not end up winning.

    Anyway, in reality I won't be surprised to see a completely unexpected podium. Actually, I think it's unlikely all three of Kim, Kostner and Asada end up on the podium at Sochi. Maybe we could see an American lady, a Russian lady, or a Japanese lady other than Asada getting a medal. I think it's also definitely possible that we might see only ONE of the big three on the podium.
    ITA. We often see surprise finishes at the Olympics. Remember 92 men? 94 men? 2002 ladies?

    I don't believe Kim will miss the podium. Other than that, anything can happen, and I give Kim a 99.9999% chance of winning the gold if she skates clean.

  16. #36
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    No, Yuna can never be beaten, even with 2+ falls. This ladies Olympic competition is already completely boring. We have known the results for a couple of years now. The competition is just a formality/coronation for Kim, Asada, Kostner.

  17. #37
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    Kim can lose to totally clean Asada and Kostner if she makes 2 falls I think. So I votes yes but highly unlikely.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by pat decaro View Post
    Another reason would be the late found consistency in Kostner. She's skating like a 6.0 skater and I think it's nonsense she's earning the same kind of PCS as Kim does, but it seems she has a lot more believers now.
    I agree. Kostner's PCS should be far exceeding Kim's. Kostner's superior musicality, engaging expression, and majestic programs are much more inspiring than what Kim showcased in London.

  19. #39
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    I would suggest we wait and see what their Olympic season programs look like before even guessing which one "deserves" higher PCS. It is not like comparing Gracie Gold to Mao Asada in PCS for instance.

  20. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    I agree. Kostner's PCS should be far exceeding Kim's. Kostner's superior musicality, engaging expression, and majestic programs are much more inspiring than what Kim showcased in London.
    Oh, yeah right.

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