View Poll Results: Can a clean Yu na Kim be beaten in the 2014 Oly?

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  • Absolutely not

    59 43.07%
  • Yes, but highly unlikely

    60 43.80%
  • Yes, she can be beaten

    18 13.14%
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  1. #1

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    Is there even the smallest chance of a Clean Yu na Kim being beaten in the 2014 Oly?

    This thread was inspired by the Chan thread

    If Yu na Kim skates clean, can she still be beaten in Sochi? If yes, by who?

    Curious minds want to know.

  2. #2
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    I'd like to think a clean Mao with 3A in both LP and SP can get her enough points to beat Kim.

  3. #3
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    A squeak clean (no UR) 8-triple free program by Mao will do it. But again, she has to be squeaky clean.

  4. #4

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    I vote for "Yes, but highly unlikely"

    Only Mao beat a clean Yuna!!! BUT Mao herself must be absolutely-freaking-clean all short and free program, land all her planed triples, not even single -GOE

    Yes, and I will win lottery before that happen

  5. #5
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    I have my faith in Mao. Voted for yes.

  6. #6

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    What about Carolina? She has been upping the content each season. If she goes clean (and I know that's highly unlikely) she could challenge the clean Kim. I don't think a clean Carolina is any less likely than a clean Mao, they both tend to make some mistakes. But I think the judges could possibly give the clean Carolina higher PCS than Kim, which they won't do for Mao.

  7. #7
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    No. A clean Kim come Sochi will score 150 or higher in the long and 75 or higher in the short for a 225 point total. Even clean Mao or Carolina wont best that. Carolina's chance to beat a clean Kim was at Worlds as reigning World Champion. Now that Kim is reigning Olympic and World Champion again Kostner definitely wont beat a clean Kim on PCS, unless she has absolutely amazing programs.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by TripleWallie View Post
    A squeak clean (no UR) 8-triple free program by Mao will do it. But again, she has to be squeaky clean.
    That could be interesting if it ever happened, but there is no chance of that happening anyway (Mao ever doing her current 70 base value long program squeeky clean) so it would still fit into the no chance category IMHO.

  9. #9
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    No. Clean Kim cant be beaten. Her PB international score is like 20 points higher than others. I dont know what clean Mao or clean Kostner do, but the best they have been able to produce in 7 or 8 years is about 20 points lower than Kim's top couple times, and they arent going to do something much better than they have in decade long senior careers now.

  10. #10

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    As with the Patrick Chan thread, the answer is "no". Miss Kim will become a two-time Olympic Gold Medalist, adding her names to the greats ~ Sonja Henie (3-time Olympic Gold Medalist), Katarina Witt (2-time Olympic Gold Medalist). History will be made!!!

  11. #11
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    No. Her advantage in quality is significant enough, so I don't think it would matter whether someone else could manage to match or better her scores in isolated elements.

    I feel the same with Patrick Chan. I think both Chan and Kim are locks for gold if they go clean. The differences between the two would be: Kim is more likely to be clean than Chan is; however, IMO in case of some mistakes the judges would be more hesitant in marking Chan down than they would with Kim (this has been true in the past, for whatever reason).

  12. #12
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    Of course. Never say never...

    If by some chance the universe aligned and Carolina skated lights out after Yu-Na skated (that's key), I think she could match or beat Yu-Na. She's the only other skater who can close the gap in GOE and PCS and being that Carolina has never done it before and that she would manage to do it on the biggest stage (Olympics), I do think the judges might be inclined to give Carolina the nod.

    Reality is Carolina is not known for skating cleanly...then again Yu-Na was not/is not known for skating 100% cleanly either but has managed to do it twice. Who's to say it might not happen for Carolina? Or Mao? You never know...

  13. #13
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    One good question is who would have a better chance to beat a clean Kim, a clean Mao or clean Kostner. Not who is more likely to skate cleanly between Mao and Kostner which is a seperate topic, but in the unlikely hypothetical one of them did manage to, which would have the better chance to beat a clean Kim.

    I would say Mao since her base value is about 10 points higher. This despite that I am sure a clean Mao would get the lowest PCS and GOE of all 3 of these if they went clean, but her base value would still give her more chance than Kostner would have. I think Kostner is liked by the judges more than Mao is right now, and in many ways is just a better skater than Mao is right now, but her base value isnt even higher than Kim's, and I dont think anyone can beat a clean Kim without having a higher base value. I am not even saying I think a clean Mao would beat a clean Kim, just that I think her chances to do would be higher than a clean Kostner to beat a clean Kim for the reasons stated.

    Ultimately I dont expect either Mao or Kostner to skate cleanly though and Kim will win in a blowout, even if she isnt perfect herself. I do think Mao and Kostner will hold it together to the extent of a "pretty good" performance, which would be enough to almost shut the door on the rest, unless Wagner has the skate of her life. I have a feeling Wagner is the only one who might break up the expected podium, not one of the young guns.

  14. #14
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    Mao's based value in LP is 12 points higher than Kim. When we talk about clean, we are talking about realistically clean other than 3f-3lp< and 3lz e. Even if these two elements will receive minus GOE, all the others should at least offset all the negative. 5 points of GOE are definitely doable (that includes 1 GOE per spin, 2 points of GOE of step squence, and other jump elements).

    Say Kim can have 11 points of GOE as demonstrated by 2013 Worlds. Their GOE difference then will be 6 points. Considering Mao's 12 points base value advantage, she will have 6 points advantage in TES over Kim.

    So on the PCS side, as long as Mao's is not 6 points lower than Kim. She can win. In 2013 Worlds, Mao's PCS was 5 points lower than Kim's when she had two mistakes and one edge call. When she's relatively clean, she will get some boost on that mark.

    In summary, tt's entirely possible, but it will be a tall order.
    Last edited by McIce; 09-23-2013 at 10:12 PM.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by TripleWallie View Post
    A squeak clean (no UR) 8-triple free program by Mao will do it. But again, she has to be squeaky clean.
    I agree but she's going to have to include the 3A in both the SP and LP.

  16. #16

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    i voted no. Mao would need to be on steroids. Carolina... nope. Yu Na will be treated like a goddess and, although I am not a big fan, I can't argue with that steely perfection and that amazing comeback.

  17. #17
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    I think Mao could do it if she goes all out and lands a rotated triple triple in both programs as well as three triple axels

  18. #18

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    Carolina's jump content is hardly static. She really dumbed down the content a few seasons back to regain her confidence, but then has upped the content significantly the last 2 seasons. If she ups it again once again, she may not be far in base value from Kim (but I agree Kim is far less likely to make mistakes). When Carolina was much younger, she also landed content similar to Kim. So it's hard to say what 'clean Carolina' would look like next season.

  19. #19
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    Very unlikely, but it would take a historic performance from Kostner and/or Asada to do it.

  20. #20
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    Honestly, yes. A clean Yu-Na could actually win bronze if Mao and Kostner go clean short and long, AND with quality programs from both.

    And also if Mao and Kostner are relatively strong throughout the season. If Yu-Na trounces them throughout the GP season performance and score wise, the writing will be on the wall.

    If I'm betting my future house on it though, it's Yu-Na all the way (but I'll always believe in miracles )

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