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  1. #141
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    Chan would not win over a clean Hanyu in 2014. Hanyu's planned base value in the LP is 8 points higher, and Chan would never make up 8 points in PCS on Hanyu since the judges are giving them almost the same PCS these days. Meanwhile he would make up nothing on GOE on a totally clean Hanyu, and would probably even lose more points there. As for the short program Chan would have lost that even with a clean triple axel, so no points gained there either.

    The judges wouldnt dare put a clean Yu Na Kim off the podium under any circumstances, so atleast one of Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya, or Asada would have been off.

    A totally clean Slutskaya was also never winning only bronze in 2006. She came in as the heavy favorite so would have been given silver at the very least in that case.

    Abt winning bronze in an all clean mens competition in 2002? Ridiculous. He would be lucky to even make the top 6.

  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enero View Post
    I agree with your picks, except for the Men's 2002 event. I think if Plushenko had skated clean he would've beat Yaugudin. He still would've lost the short, but beat him in the long.

    These predictions are always fun to see. However, I do wonder how things would've changed had those who originally won the gold didn't, such as Yamaguchi, Lysachek, Urmanov etc. Would they have continued on for another 4 years and if so how would that have changed the dynamics of the podium at the next Olympics.
    I agree about Plushy! He had Yagudin's number by then, even if he was more artistic, Evgeni's effortless jumps always seemed to put him on top; esp. in the SP! If not for Plushenko, I don't think Alexei would have broken down so soon! He was being pushed to put more technical content in his programs due to Evgeni's 2 quads!

  3. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by grassroots39 View Post
    Chan would not win over a clean Hanyu in 2014. Hanyu's planned base value in the LP is 8 points higher, and Chan would never make up 8 points in PCS on Hanyu since the judges are giving them almost the same PCS these days. Meanwhile he would make up nothing on GOE on a totally clean Hanyu, and would probably even lose more points there. As for the short program Chan would have lost that even with a clean triple axel, so no points gained there either.

    The judges wouldnt dare put a clean Yu Na Kim off the podium under any circumstances, so atleast one of Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya, or Asada would have been off.


    A totally clean Slutskaya was also never winning only bronze in 2006. She came in as the heavy favorite so would have been given silver at the very least in that case.

    Abt winning bronze in an all clean mens competition in 2002? Ridiculous. He would be lucky to even make the top 6.
    Regarding the bolded part... For what reason? There is nothing that indicates this to us. It's pretty much the same as saying before the Olympics that the judges wouldn't have dared to not give her the gold medal in Sochi had she been clean.

  4. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarts1 View Post
    Regarding the bolded part... For what reason? There is nothing that indicates this to us. It's pretty much the same as saying before the Olympics that the judges wouldn't have dared to not give her the gold medal in Sochi had she been clean.
    Frankly, if all of them skate clean, I think the judge would put Yuna off the podium. Because you know, with such judging, there would be no way they would put Adelina and Yulia off the podium if both of them were clean. And if Mao were clean in both her SP and LP, it's hard to put her off the podium because of her BV being highest.
    I am afraid they would be willing to scarify Yuna, though.

  5. #145

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    Frankly, if all of them skate clean, I think the judge would put Yuna off the podium. Because you know, with such judging, there would be no way they would put Adelina and Yulia off the podium if both of them were clean. And if Mao were clean in both her SP and LP, it's hard to put her off the podium because of her BV being highest.
    I am afraid they would be willing to scarify Yuna, though.
    Well, considering this is a banal, off-season hypothetical scenario, you have nothing to be afraid about!

  6. #146
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    2002- pairs would be the same minus any controversy if B&S had been clean rather than error proned. men would see someone else win the bronze besides Goebel, probably Honda if all did their best. ladies would see Slutskaya winning gold. After that not sure. If Kwan does the triple toe-triple toe she wins the silver for sure. If she doesnt and Cohen does the triple lutz-triple toe Cohen gets silver. If Cohen doesnt do the triple lutz-triple toe she doesnt even beat Hughes for bronze though.

    2006- Slutskaya or Arakawa gold. Cant really say which. Cohen bronze. If Asada skates then she would win bronze with all clean. I am assuming triple-triples from Irina and Shiz otherwise gold Asada. men would end up the same if all were clean. pairs same too. Zhangs had become new Chinese #1 in S&Z absence so would be given nod over them for silver even if both were clean, especialy if they did the throw quad they had planned.

    2010- pairs would end up same if all clean. Men would see Abbott gold, Lambiel silver, and Takahashi bronze if all clean. Ladies would end up same if all clean.

    2014- ladies would see Julia win bronze over Asada and Kostner if all clean. Men would see Hanyu still winning over Chan if both clean, and probably by more points, and bronze would be Fernandez while Ten wouldnt even be top 8. pairs would be same if all clean.

  7. #147
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    Pong & Tong and Stolbova & Klimov would never have chance to beat the German pair skating cleanly. Would never happen ever.

  8. #148
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    I am literally dead at the hypothetical that Cohen would ever do a clean quad in Olympic competition
    Last edited by iarispiralllyof; 05-26-2014 at 07:26 PM.

  9. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by iarispiralllyof View Post
    I am literally dead at the hypothetical that Cohen would ever do a clean quad in Olympic competition
    Did she try the quad salchow in her Olympic LP. If she did that is what a clean skate by her would include, whether it was realistic for her to land it or not. I do know she tried it a couple times that year, but dont remember if the Olympics was one of those times. I mostly wiped the whole SLC ladies event out of my mind.

  10. #150
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    Slutskaya would have won the 2002 and 2006 Olympics skating cleanly for sure, even if Kwan and Arakawa also skated their best. I am not saying that since I think she is the best which I dont. Judges loved her and overrated her ugly skating. Since the other Russian girls of her era- Butyrskaya, Volchova, Sokolova, were always underscored, the powerful Russian fed. probably also sold them all out to buy marks for her, which was a waste it turned out as she always choked in big events to lose the gold anyway.

    Had Slutskaya stayed more consistent in the year and half leading up to Nagano, she also would have prohibited Tara's rise from ever happening.

  11. #151
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    Only doing ones I remember or care about.

    2014 pairs

    Gold- Savchenko & Szolkowy. Lets be real. The judges would never place a clean S&S behind V&T. At the 2011 grand prix final Savchenko & Szolkowy even made mistakes and beat a totally clean Volsozhar & Trankov, one of the worst results in history.

    Silver- Volosozhar & Trankov.

    Bronze- Duhamel & Radford

    Mens 2014

    Gold- Fernandez

    Silver- Hanyu

    Bronze- Chan


    Ladies 2006

    Gold- Slutskaya or Arakawa, depending how many/or any triples-triples each did and which ones.

    Bronze- Cohen, could even possibly move up if neither Slutskaya or Arakawa try a 3-3


    Ladies 2002

    Gold- Slutskaya

    Silver- Kwan

    Bronze- Butyrskaya- her best skating would beat even what Hughes did to win gold.


    1998 ladies

    Gold- Lipinski

    Silver- Kwan

    Bronze- Butyrskaya


    1992 ladies

    Gold- Ito if she does 2 triple axels

    Silver- Harding, gold if Ito does only 1 triple axel

    Bronze- Yamaguchi, silver if Ito does only 1 triple axel, gold if Harding gets low artistic marks


    2006 pairs

    Gold- Totmianina & Marinin

    Silver- Zhangs if they do quad throw in clean skate

    Bronze- Shen & Zhao, silver if they go clean and Zhangs clean skate has no quad throw


    1994 men

    Gold- Petrenko

    Silver- Browning

    Bronze- Davis or Stojko or Boitano (not Urmanov for sure)


    1994 dance

    Gold- Usova & Zhulin- they stumbled and slowed down in FD to lose gold

    Silver- Torvill & Dean- with no illegal moves

    Bronze- Grischuk & Platov


    1994 pairs

    Gold- Mistkutienok & Dmitriev- they had a stumble in both programs to lose gold

    Silver- Gordeeva & Grinkov

    Bronze- Brasseur & Eisler

  12. #152

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    I don't remember M/D having a stumble in 1994.
    "Corporation, n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility." - Ambrose Bierce

  13. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa View Post
    I don't remember M/D having a stumble in 1994.
    Artur had a small trip in the footwork sequence in the last segment. The program was skated with so much reckless abandon that many didn't notice!

  14. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by VolosozharGOAT View Post

    Mens 2014

    Gold- Fernandez

    Silver- Hanyu

    Bronze- Chan
    I don't know how you came to that : )

    If everyone would skate clean then:

    1. Hanyu
    2. Chan
    3. Fernandez

  15. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by VolosozharGOAT View Post
    Ladies 2002

    Gold- Slutskaya

    Silver- Kwan

    Bronze- Butyrskaya- her best skating would beat even what Hughes did to win gold.
    Couldn't disagree more. What combo was Slutskaya doing in practices before she watered down her program after Kwan bombed? Regardless, I don't see the beloved Kwan skating cleanly in her home country and losing the gold medal. It wouldn't have happened. The short program proved that. Likewise, Butyrskaya had no shot at winning a medal in the US if other Americans skated cleanly too. The short proved that also.

  16. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by fenway2 View Post
    Couldn't disagree more. What combo was Slutskaya doing in practices before she watered down her program after Kwan bombed? Regardless, I don't see the beloved Kwan skating cleanly in her home country and losing the gold medal. It wouldn't have happened. The short program proved that. Likewise, Butyrskaya had no shot at winning a medal in the US if other Americans skated cleanly too. The short proved that also.
    I guess we will never know for sure, but my thinking is this. In the 2000-2002 period the indications from the judges were if both skated cleanly Slutskaya would win. Surely you dont dispute that. Anytime both were imperfect Slutskaya won, even the times she made more mistakes and landed less jumps. The only times Kwan could ever beat Slutskaya that period is when she skated some of her best performances ever, with more technical content than ever, and Slutskaya made mistakes on top of that. So would that have magically changed just because the Olympics were in the U.S? I guess it is possible, but I dont give the U.S that much credit to have that kind of influence. They arent Russia and their powerhouse federation, the U.S by contrast has a weak federation and is unable to influence results by home court advantage or things like that. The other factor is was Kwan planning the triple toe-triple toe or realistically going to do it in a clean skate. If Irina did a clean skate with a triple loop combination, Kwan for sure would need the triple toe-triple toe to have any hope of winning, even if there was this distinct U.S home court advantage that I dont believe the weak U.S federation was capable of.

    As for my picking Fernandez for gold if all were clean in Sochi I knew many would disagree on that one. However looking over his protocal sheet he had 6 counted mistakes against his score in the long program and still nearly got the bronze. His planned base value is higher than both Hanyu and Chan wasnt it. And combine that he gets very good GOE when he completes things cleanly, and his PCS are generous even for programs with mistakes, and I think he could do it. It is hard to know though, as Fernandez has never skated close to a clean competition before. I am sure he would atleast get the bronze in that case though, and he didnt even need to be clean to get the bronze in Sochi either.

    I thought Miskutienok & Dmitriev had a big trip in their footwork in the long program and they had a wobble on something else in the short which Scott Hamilton was talking about to justify their 2nd place in the short.

    PS- short programs also dont mean anything much. Some judges had Sebeysten ahead of clean Hughes in the short, but that never would have happened in the long. Cohen was put ahead by every judge over clean Hughes in the short, and even by 3 judges over clean Slutskaya, but neither of those things would have ever happened in the long even had all 3 been clean. Lipinski lost almost every judge to Kwan in the Nagano short despite going clean, and some of the same judges who had her .4 behind put her above a clean Kwan in the long. Then there in Sochi where V&T beat a clean S&S by 5 points in the short, but I am sure we all would agree the judges were still giving the insanely overrated S&S the win over V&T if both were clean like they always favor S&S unless they bomb, which would mean winning the LP by atleast 5 points, the total reverse of the short.

  17. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by VolosozharGOAT View Post
    I guess we will never know for sure, but my thinking is this. In the 2000-2002 period the indications from the judges were if both skated cleanly Slutskaya would win. Surely you don't dispute that.
    I don't dispute that. A clean Slute beat a clean Kwan from 2000ish to 2001. But then the short program in SLC happened and all bets were off....for that competition only. That Kwan beat her in the short with that two-footed jump was ridiculous. Surely Slute knew the fix was in after that and an American would have to meltdown for her to have a chance to win.
    Last edited by fenway2; 06-16-2014 at 07:59 AM.

  18. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by VolosozharGOAT View Post

    As for my picking Fernandez for gold if all were clean in Sochi I knew many would disagree on that one. However looking over his protocal sheet he had 6 counted mistakes against his score in the long program and still nearly got the bronze. His planned base value is higher than both Hanyu and Chan wasnt it. And combine that he gets very good GOE when he completes things cleanly, and his PCS are generous even for programs with mistakes, and I think he could do it. It is hard to know though, as Fernandez has never skated close to a clean competition before. I am sure he would atleast get the bronze in that case though, and he didnt even need to be clean to get the bronze in Sochi either.
    Hanyu had the highest planned BV. As for GOE, Fernandez would be behind Hanyu and Chan even if he is totally clean.

    Rankings in terms of planned BV: Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez
    Ranking in terms of best GOE when clean: Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez
    Ranking in terms of PCS when clean: Chan, Hanyu, Fernandez

    So the podium would be: Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez

  19. #159
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    I am pretty sure Fernandez had atleast a higher potential base value than Chan. He was the only guy doing 3 quads after all. Still wouldnt have been enough to beat Chan if both were clean though.

  20. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I am pretty sure Fernandez had atleast a higher potential base value than Chan. He was the only guy doing 3 quads after all. Still wouldnt have been enough to beat Chan if both were clean though.


    Yes, Fernandez had higher BV than Chan in his planned content, but not enough to overtake Patrick's TES+PCS

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