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  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa View Post
    kuzytalent,

    I think your rationale may work, but it relies too heavily on past examples. Every competition is new, we have no idea what that particular judging panel on that particular night in the U.S. would have done between Slutskaya and Kwan. We never really saw a competition in which both skaters skated lights out to the best of the abilities against one another. Usually one would win when the other would falter (even if it was slightly). I mean look at S/P v. B/S. S/P won over B/S as many times as Slutskaya beat Kwan over the season prior to SLC (if not more). Then look at what initially happened in SLC.

    Maybe this is me misremembering the attitudes going into SLC, but wasn't it a popular conception (or misconception) that the Olympics were Kwan's to lose since the Nagano narrative was so strong and that the judges were going to give Irina the World title as a consolation. Some said the GPF was also a consolation ala Bourne and Kraatz's win.

    All my examples are from 2000-2002, including an event to come- 2002 Worlds. Those arent past examples, they are very recent and current examples. Well if looking at how the judges typically scored the two vs each other during this period isnt the best barometer than what is. It seems a far more concrete way of examining the likely outcome than just "oh Kwan was American, Olympics were in the U.S, so she skates clean she wins." Remember most of that years judging panel was from Eastern Europe anyway, which is already advantage Slutskaya. It is pretty obvious looking over many events during the 2000s Eastern European judges especialy considered Irina the best skater in the World if he skated well.

    As for your conception I believe that would indeed be a misconception. Just look at the preview done by Ice Skating International Online for the women in SLC after the Grand Prix final:

    http://www.iceskatingintnl.com/archi...ults/gpf01.htm

    As expected, Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya appear to be the only two skaters in serious contention for the ladies gold medal in Salt Lake City, with Slutskaya now going into the Games as the favorite. Based on their seasons thus far, if both ladies skate their current programs their best, it looks like Slutskaya would win every time. But both of these skaters are under immense pressure, and neither skates with 100% consistency so anything can happen. Last season, recall, Slutskaya was also the favorite going into Worlds but it was Kwan who took home the gold medal. Nevertheless, Slutskaya has the better programs this season and the stronger jumps when she skates clean, so the odds favor her.

    While not without hope, Kwan she still has a long way to go to be fully prepared for the Olympics. Following Skate Canada her situation looked desperate. She had recently sent her long-time coach Frank Carroll packing, and was not skating particularly well. Since then her prospects have improved somewhat. Upon her return to California, she changed to her Rachmaninov short program from the 1998 season and set up camp back at Lake Arrowhead for the altitude training and seclusion it offers. Four weeks later at the Final, Kwan was skating with more confidence and her short program presentation was less stale than for the over used "East of Eden" routine she began the season with. The Rachmaninov short program, however, earned seven 6.0s at U.S. Nationals in 1998 and top marks internationally that season, but at the Final it earned her only a third place result. Her new long program is improving but still has obvious holes in it and is skated mostly like background music is playing. Her jumps are fairly secure currently but lack height, speed, and flow out of the landings. She has two months remaining to fix these problems. Achievable, but challenging without a coach.
    Note this is an American based and traditionally heavily pro American site too.

    Despite that Michelle fell and Irina didnt Irina's skate was in most respects worse and much further from her potential best than Kwan's in SLC and Irina still beat Kwan in the LP, and only lost the LP and gold to Hughes and her flawless multiple 3-3s skate by .1, a tiebreaker from one judge (the Finnish judge giving Slutskaya 5.8, 5.8 instead of 5.8, 5.7 vs the 5.7, 5.8 given to Hughes, would have given Slutskaya the gold). Slutskaya had comparable or higher technical marks than Hughes even with only 4 really clean triples, and 3 judges gave her a 5.9 for presentation even with the weak, cautious, and flawed performance. Even Slutskaya's Worlds LP with only 6 triples and no 3-3 but cleanly and well skated would have easily beaten Sarah for the gold. The same might be true of Kwan, but even a simple triple toe-triple toe would not overcome Irina skating last with a triple-triple featuring a triple loop to end it. Just imagine it skated cleanly, especialy with a triple salchow-triple toe or triple loop (or something harder, depending what she chose) and skating last. The marks would have been through the roof and higher than even a clean Kwan could have ever topped. Kwan skating before Slutskaya the judges would have also had no choice but to leave room for Slutskaya in the scores no matter how well Kwan skated.

    Salt Lake City and Turin golds were both clearly Slutskaya's to lose and she lost both.

  2. #82
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    As for Bourne & Kraatz winning the Grand Prix final there are obvious reasons why that happened:

    1. It was in Canada. This is the most obvious of all. We see today with Chan's ridiculous wins and scores, Sale & Pelletier's 2nd gold medal after being judged to not be the winners, and a few other cases how powerful the Canadian skating federation must be. By far the most powerful and influential behind the scenes federation in the World, and not the Russian fed. as media would like North Americans to believe. Remember Bourne & Kraatz even beating the great Krylova & Ovsiannikov to win the 1997 Grand Prix final in Canada, at a time they had no hope vs them anywhere else. They won 2 Grand Prix finals (basically another Worlds) before winning their first World silver, and both Grand Prix finals were in Canada. Also remember the Grand Prix final in Canada where Stojko fell and still beat a clean Eldredge.

    2. The other top teams were not as prepared for the event. Anissina & Peizerat did not have their free dance finely tuned. They easily beat Bourne & Kraatz in all the other programs at that event. The team of Barbara Fusar Poli was not ready for the event at all. Lobacheva & Averbuhk werent event there.

    3. The silly 3 program format helped them win. They were a distant 2nd in the first dance, barely 2nd over 3rd place in the second, then barely won the third on a 4-3 split and won. Under a regular format they would have never won the event, even in Canada, and with all the other top teams not at their best.

    They also would have won the silver or bronze in Salt Lake City without their fall so it was not like they were out of contention there. They won silver at Worlds that year too.
    Last edited by kuzytalent; 09-29-2013 at 07:57 PM.

  3. #83

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    I disagree. I think Kwan would have won based on the presentation mark. The SP marks clearly showcased this. If Kwan's tech marks were capped out at 5.7/5.8, then I could foresee Kwan getting straight 5.9s in presentation for an inspired LP skate. Look at her presentation marks in the SP (which is clearer indicator how the judges would have rewarded Kwan for the SLC competition in the U.S.). Even if Irina were to do one 3/3 (I don't know how we're defining clean here as we never knew exactly what Irina was planning), she could have received tech. marks in the 5.8-5.9 range, but I don't foresee her beating Kwan in the presentation mark. Even looking at the 5.9s Irina received in SLC, she still received 2 5.6s and 3 5.7s. Kwan, with her more flawed skate (a very cautious start, a double-foot on her 3 toe, a serious fall that distracted from the program, and changing the ending of the program to add an extra jump that took away from the overall impression of the routine) still received two 5.9s, 6 5.8s, and 1 5.7.

    Anyway, I still think the dynamic that Hughes topping Kwan before Irina's skate created created an almost chaotic situation where some judges wanted to ensure a win for Slutskaya (and avoid giving Hughes the gold) while others wanted to ensure a win for Hughes and some others wanting to ensure a win for Kwan . I mean it's telling that Kwan with her very flawed skate, still received a majority of second place ordinals. The only difference was with which skater the judges had first.

    I think time has made forget how liked Michelle Kwan was by the judges even if they seemed to show favoritism towards Irina. At 2001 Worlds, the judges could have given Irina the gold with her 3/3 attempts. They were surely under rotated, one of them had a stumble, but they were valiant efforts. However, the presentation marks Irina received were in the 5.6/5.7 range. It was sort of a blow-out, with Kwan winning on a 7-2 split. The marks made it seem like Irina made more mistakes than she really did. I simply remember people expecting Irina to win the earlier season events by the time the 2001-2002 season started with Kwan turning it up for the big events with the judges falling more in her favor. That's how it almost happened too, if the SP was any indication (where Irina was cleaner on the jumps but Kwan turning up her presentation and skating with more fire than she had all season).
    Last edited by VIETgrlTerifa; 09-29-2013 at 08:22 PM.
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  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa View Post
    I disagree. I think Kwan would have won based on the presentation mark. The SP marks clearly showcased this. If Kwan's tech marks were capped out at 5.7/5.8, then I could foresee Kwan getting straight 5.9s in presentation for an inspired LP skate.
    Well you are wrong. Irina skating cleanly with a 3-3 would get almost all 5.9s on the technical mark and maybe even some 6.0s (depending what scores Kwan got and which 3-3 she chose), and Kwan would not get straight 5.9s for presentation for that blah program even skated cleanly. Even her much better programs from the 2000 and 2001 Worlds skated brilliantly didnt. Her short program did since it was a signature program and she skated last of all the contenders. Irina got 3 5.9s for presentation even for her 55% of her best skate, so even if you were right on Kwan's presentation marks she would still lose. Irina would trounce Kwan in the technical mark and receive comparable presentation scores if both skated well. You are a Kwan fan so are in denial, fine, I dont care, I know I am right, and I am not even an Irina or Michelle fan so unlike you I have no bias in this case. I just notice the judges at the time liked her skating more all things equal, and it has nothing to do with liking her skating which frankly I dont (even less than Kwan, although both I find boring). You even picked Kwan winning the 2000 Worlds had all, she, Irina, and Maria skated cleanly I recall and Kwan had only 15% of the votes there, and yet you still picked her, LOL! You probably would pick Kwan as the winner in an all clean competition at event she was ever in, even if she reinstated for the 2010 Olympics and competed against Kim under COP that is what you would pick and argue defiantly to anyone who disagreed. You love Kwan to death so no point arguing anything involving her with you, that is fine, we all have our favorites.
    Last edited by kuzytalent; 09-29-2013 at 08:26 PM.

  5. #85

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    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    Well you are wrong. Irina skating cleanly with a 3-3 would get almost all 5.9s on the technical mark and maybe even some 6.0s (depending what scores Kwan got and which 3-3 she chose), and Kwan would not get straight 5.9s for presentation for that blah program even skated cleanly. Even her much better programs from the 2000 and 2001 Worlds skated brilliantly didnt. Her short program did since it was a signature program and she skated last of all the contenders. Irina got 3 5.9s for presentation even for her 55% of her best skate, so even if you were right on Kwan's presentation marks she would still lose. Irina would trounce Kwan in the technical mark and receive comparable presentation scores if both skated well. You are a Kwan fan so are in denial, fine, I dont care, I know I am right, and I am not even an Irina or Michelle fan so unlike you I have no bias in this case. I just notice the judges at the time liked her skating more all things equal, and it has nothing to do with liking her skating which frankly I dont (even less than Kwan, although both I find boring). You even picked Kwan winning the 2000 Worlds had all, she, Irina, and Maria skated cleanly I recall and Kwan had only 15% of the votes there, and yet you still picked her, LOL! You probably would pick Kwan as the winner in an all clean competition at event she was ever in, even if she reinstated for the 2010 Olympics and competed against Kim under COP that is what you would pick and argue defiantly to anyone who disagreed. You love Kwan to death so no point arguing anything involving her with you, that is fine, we all have our favorites.
    You can't tell me I'm wrong since all of this isn't based on things that actually happened. You're interpreting certain facts to make your case, but that doesn't make them convincing or "right" either. Nobody knows for certain how the judges were going to score a clean Slutskaya or Kwan in the SLC LP. This is a hypothetical situation that has no real right or wrong answer. I just didn't find your rationale convincing, and you're blowing your top.

    Also, nice way to make it personal. Ad hominem arguments are always so convincing...even more than the argument about using a FSU popularity poll (with like what...a little over 200 people, if even that, to make your point).
    Last edited by VIETgrlTerifa; 09-29-2013 at 08:33 PM.
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  6. #86

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    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    Well you are wrong.

    I dont care, I know I am right
    Sorry, no. I agree with VIETgrlTerifa, there is no "right" or "wrong" here. The fact is, you have no proof that the judges would have voted any certain way, had everyone skated clean. This thread is pure speculation.

    (And no, this has nothing to do with preferring Kwan. Most posters here know I never liked her all that much.)
    Last edited by skateboy; 09-30-2013 at 08:33 AM.
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  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lnt175 View Post
    I agree with the 98-2010 placements but for Albertiville I'm surprised so many have Yamaguchi ahead of Harding if both went clean. Did we forget 91 nats and SA where Harding went clean and won. I'd say if all went clean there it'd be:
    1. Ito-with 2 3A's and one in combo possibly. (3A/3T or 3A/2t)
    2. Harding
    3. Yamaguchi

    For Lillehammer Kerrigan would win over Chen, because Chen was never favored. Not sure who'd win Bronze between Baiul or Sato, but I'd give the edge to Baiul though since the judges loved her. If she went clean she might beat Chen, even with no real combinations (Like 93 worlds).
    Baiul going clean only bronze at the 94 Olympics? Would never happen, and if it did it wouldnt be behind Chen, and probably not behind Kerrigan. She skated less clean than Kerrigan in both programs, and less clean than Chen in the long, and still beat both, and she never had trouble beating Chen. Between Kerrigan, Baiul, Bonaly, and Chen the results if all went clean would have probably been Baiul-Kerrigan-Bonaly-Chen in that order if all went clean. It is possibly Bonaly would have been higher than that since her long program was by far the most technically difficult of all the women in the event, but she would probably still lose out to Baiul and Kerrigan by the 2nd mark. Sato and Josee C. are the wild cards. I have no idea where the judges would have slotted them in had they gone clean, and those other 4 also had gone clean. They did not do enough clean competitions to properly evaluate where the judges would see them. Tonya Harding even going clean would not have been been in medal contention this year unless she did her triple axel, and the whack never happened. Witt wouldnt have been either.

  8. #88
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    These would be the lady and dance podiums if all were clean from 92-2002

    Gold- Duchensays. Their mistakes let Klimova & Sergei win. They wouldnt deserve it even clean but judges would make them then.
    Silver- Klimova & Sergei
    Bronze- Usova & Zhulin

    Gold- Usova & Zhulin. Their mistake near the end of the free dance let Gritschuk & Platov win.
    Silver- Torvill & Dean. Without illegal move they beat G&P too.
    Bronze- Gristchuk & Platov

    Nagano dance- same

    Salt Lake dance- same. Bourne & Kraatz have bronze chance since Barbara falls but Shae Lynn falls too.


    Gold- Yamaguchi. If she does clean the judges give all 5.9s for both technical and artistic.
    Silver- Ito. If she goes clean judges give 5.9s and 6.0s technical and mostly 5.8s and few 5.9s artistic, not enough to beat Yamaguchi.
    Bronze- Harding.

    Gold- Baiul or Sato or Josee
    Silver- Baiul or Sato or Josee or Kerrigan or Bonaly
    Bronze- Sato or Josee or Kerrigan or Bonaly

    Gold- Lipinski
    Silver- Butyrskaya. I think skate from 99 Europeans and 99 Worlds would beat Kwan for silver.
    Bronze- Kwan

    Gold- Cohen. Quad salchow and triple lutz-triple toe combined with beautiful Carmen would ensure her gold even over Slutskaya and Kwan
    Silver- Slutskaya
    Bronze- Kwan

  9. #89
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    Doing the 80s too:

    Sarajevo

    Pairs- Gold German team, Silver Russian team, Bronze Underhill/Martini
    Men- Gold Hamilton, Silver Fadeev, Bronze Cerne or Orser or Sabovcik
    Dance- Blumberg & Seibert win silver skating clean without illegalities/mistakes
    Ladies- Gold Sumners (but she never was going to be clean), Silver Witt, Bronze Kondrashova or Vodorezova or Leistner (not Ivanova for sure)

    Calgary

    Pairs- Gold Russians, Silver, Russians, Bronze Russians. Selezneva & Makarov probably silver over Valova if both are clean.
    Men- Gold Fadeev, Silver Orser, Bronze Boitano. A clean Orser would easily beat clean Boitano. Short program proved that. Fadeeva was adored by judges and would get huge scores if clean, which he never was except at Europeans.
    Dance- Same
    Ladies- Gold Manley, Silver Thomas, Bronze Witt. Manley's short program misses cost her the gold.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by KimGOAT View Post
    These would be the lady and dance podiums if all were clean from 92-2002

    Gold- Duchensays. Their mistakes let Klimova & Sergei win. They wouldnt deserve it even clean but judges would make them then.
    Silver- Klimova & Sergei
    Bronze- Usova & Zhulin

    Gold- Usova & Zhulin. Their mistake near the end of the free dance let Gritschuk & Platov win.
    Silver- Torvill & Dean. Without illegal move they beat G&P too.
    Bronze- Gristchuk & Platov

    Nagano dance- same

    Salt Lake dance- same. Bourne & Kraatz have bronze chance since Barbara falls but Shae Lynn falls too.


    Gold- Yamaguchi. If she does clean the judges give all 5.9s for both technical and artistic.
    Silver- Ito. If she goes clean judges give 5.9s and 6.0s technical and mostly 5.8s and few 5.9s artistic, not enough to beat Yamaguchi.
    Bronze- Harding.

    Gold- Baiul or Sato or Josee
    Silver- Baiul or Sato or Josee or Kerrigan or Bonaly
    Bronze- Sato or Josee or Kerrigan or Bonaly

    Gold- Lipinski
    Silver- Butyrskaya. I think skate from 99 Europeans and 99 Worlds would beat Kwan for silver.
    Bronze- Kwan

    Gold- Cohen. Quad salchow and triple lutz-triple toe combined with beautiful Carmen would ensure her gold even over Slutskaya and Kwan
    Silver- Slutskaya
    Bronze- Kwan

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by KimGOAT View Post
    Baiul going clean only bronze at the 94 Olympics? Would never happen, and if it did it wouldnt be behind Chen, and probably not behind Kerrigan. She skated less clean than Kerrigan in both programs, and less clean than Chen in the long, and still beat both, and she never had trouble beating Chen. Between Kerrigan, Baiul, Bonaly, and Chen the results if all went clean would have probably been Baiul-Kerrigan-Bonaly-Chen in that order if all went clean. It is possibly Bonaly would have been higher than that since her long program was by far the most technically difficult of all the women in the event, but she would probably still lose out to Baiul and Kerrigan by the 2nd mark. Sato and Josee C. are the wild cards. I have no idea where the judges would have slotted them in had they gone clean, and those other 4 also had gone clean. They did not do enough clean competitions to properly evaluate where the judges would see them. Tonya Harding even going clean would not have been been in medal contention this year unless she did her triple axel, and the whack never happened. Witt wouldnt have been either.
    I did have Baiul beating Chen in Lillehammer if both went clean as well, only because the judges seemed lukewarm to Chens Naussica program. Kerrigan, while she did go clean, still doubled the flip. If she hit the 3flip I think would win, but skating order would play a huge part in that as well.

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    Michelle Kwan would have won every year in every discipline.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanette View Post
    Well arent we assuming all skaters doing their best, since otherwise there are many different interpretations of clean.

    I am not a Sasha Cohen fan but she was trying the quad salchow in competition in that year and landing it in practice. She was landing it in practice at both the Goodwil Games and Skate America and tried it in competition although she missed it there. I heard she was planning it in her SLC LP too but she probably decided after the fall on the triple lutz-triple toe to not risk another fall and leave it out.

    The triple lutz-triple toe she definitely had and tried in most competitions then and landed cleanly in some competitions.

    She skates clean landing both of those things and with her reputation already as a beautiful artistic skater too it would be hard to imagine even clean Slutskaya and clean Kwan beating her although clean Slutskaya would have more chance as she had more of a potential arsenal to combat that.

    People are forgetting the jumps she used to have and try and sometimes land and just looking at her later career when after her changed body she dropped all the harder jumps and was never trying even a triple-triple anymore.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KimGOAT View Post
    Well arent we assuming all skaters doing their best, since otherwise there are many different interpretations of clean.

    I am not a Sasha Cohen fan but she was trying the quad salchow in competition in that year and landing it in practice. She was landing it in practice at both the Goodwil Games and Skate America and tried it in competition although she missed it there. I heard she was planning it in her SLC LP too but she probably decided after the fall on the triple lutz-triple toe to not risk another fall and leave it out.

    The triple lutz-triple toe she definitely had and tried in most competitions then and landed cleanly in some competitions.

    She skates clean landing both of those things and with her reputation already as a beautiful artistic skater too it would be hard to imagine even clean Slutskaya and clean Kwan beating her although clean Slutskaya would have more chance as she had more of a potential arsenal to combat that.

    People are forgetting the jumps she used to have and try and sometimes land and just looking at her later career when after her changed body she dropped all the harder jumps and was never trying even a triple-triple anymore.
    Refresh my memory. Besides, Skate America 01, when else did Sasha try a quad? I don't remember. As far as doing it in practice, everyone does EVERYTHING in practice.

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    Cohen had the (f) lutz/toe in the early 2000s, but she never came close to landing that quad. Kwan tried many different 3/3s in practices over the years, but only used the 3 toe/3toe, so I wouldn't use that to gauge her success' in landing it in competition. She could have done some damage in SLC being clean, but then we also have to assume Slutskaya upping her technical game; in which case she would win.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lnt175 View Post
    Cohen had the (f) lutz/toe in the early 2000s, but she never came close to landing that quad.
    To say Cohen had the 3flutz+3toe is also reaching as she only landed it ONCE in competition at the 2003 Worlds. As much as I love Jeffrey Buttle, he also landed the 4toe+3toe ONCE in competition at the 2003 4CC SP, but no one would say that he had that jump combo in his arsenal.

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    I thought Cohen landed the 3 lutz-3 toe more than once. Didnt she land it to open her 2003 Nationals program and one of her 2001-2002 season events? Either way it is clear that a combination she could atleast do and made a very good attempt of it in her 2002 Olympic program, and the fall on it is what kept that from being a clean program. It would be silly to not include that as part of a hypothetical clean skate for her, even if including the quad salchow may have been reaching.

    It wasnt like say Kwan's attempt of a triple lutz-triple loop at Skate Canada that season which was sadly hopeless and made evident that was something beyond her technical abilities.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lnt175 View Post
    Cohen had the (f) lutz/toe in the early 2000s, but she never came close to landing that quad. Kwan tried many different 3/3s in practices over the years, but only used the 3 toe/3toe, so I wouldn't use that to gauge her success' in landing it in competition. She could have done some damage in SLC being clean, but then we also have to assume Slutskaya upping her technical game; in which case she would win.
    When Slutskaya's competitors skate great she tends to not up the ante, but go the other direction, and often still make mistakes despite the easier programs. That is what happened at the 2000 and 2001 Worlds when she skated after Kwan skated great, and 2002 Olympics even after a much weaker skater like Hughes skated great. Had Cohen skated great and with high difficulty the same thing would have likely happened.

    Slutskaya seems more motivated to up the ante and do something spectacular when her competitors skate poorly, like the 2005 Worlds and 2000 Grand Prix final. It should be the reverse, but that is how things typically go for her.

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    Well to be fair, Slutskaya attempted a 3/3/2 and a 3/3 after Kwan's brilliant performance at 2001 Worlds. For Kwan, she felt she needed it while for Hughes, she didn't think she did.
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    Her first triple lutz was very shaky her triple loop of the triple salchow-triple loop was badly underrotated and two footed, she stepped out of the 2nd triple lutz combination, and she she barely held onto another jump. It was a tenative and weak performance, which I would have placed 3rd or 4th in the long program behind Butyrskaya and/or Hughes if I were a judge, but since she is Irina and judges love her she took 2nd over Maria's better skate in the free, and even took several first place ordinals off Kwan. I would say her qualifying skate even with only 5 triples and no 3-3 try was better since atleast it was very clean and everything was rock solid.

    Irina never skates superbly after a main competitor does great and with high technical difficulty.

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