I didnt say they would beat clean Kim. Just that if no other skaters have beaten Kim they might be able to. The judges would not put Kim off medals even if all skate perfectly, but they might let 1 or 2 skaters beat her (with various possabilities to who those are).
Sotnikova can do 3-3s like Kim. She does have 7 triples planned and she does all 5 triples, so that is an advantage she has over Kim. The rules have changed and were on purpose to help Asada and hurt Kim (which hasnt been enough so far but that was the goal) and it removes Kim of her advantage of doing all kinds of combinations ending with a triple jump. Unfairly I think, I am not a Kim hater or anything. Sotnikova also can get huge GOE on her jumps, like Kim. Sotnikova might have better spins than Kim which can get a bit more GOE. OK I know Sotnikova has bunch of technical problems and probaly wont be clean but isnt this about an idea they all are, as unlikely as it is. I already said Sotnikova wont beat Kim if all are clean too, just if only she and Kim are clean, and few other top skaters are then she might.
Then PCS well it would be harder for clean Sotnikova to beat clean Kim as TES, but we havent seen her with a program that shows off her artistic potential yet and if she gets it she might stay close enough to win out on TES for the reasons said above.
Now Gold at her best could beat Kim on TES even more likely. 7 triples, all 5 triples unlike Kim, huge GOE, and definitely stronger spins. PCS well she improving fast and already gets generous for what she puts out so.
^ This post is just weird. I love Adelina, but no, she's not beating Yuna any time soon. If she was clean, I agree her scores would be huge and might crack 200+, but Yuna would have to make a lot of mistakes to loose to that... the same for Gracie.
Especially that they've taken out the spiral sequence! Mao's ugly spirals never got her any points after all!Originally Posted by kwanoverrated
I totally agree with Lahaa968.
If Carolina skates a clean, 7-triple performance, she'll give a clean Yu-Na a run for her money.
Let's not forget she's the only real European contender skating at an Olympics in Europe. She's also a bit of a sentimental favorite given her terrible previous outings at the Games, and her longevity in the sport.
On top of that, no one can deny her excellent skating skills and musicality. After her Worlds win, I can see the judges pushing her PCS into the 8.5 or higher.
As for the whole 8-triple program, Jessica is correct. All six triples would have to be attempted, with two repeated.
I can only think of four, possibly five ladies (if you include Midori) that credibly planned 8-triple programs.
Midori Ito at 1992 Olympics: 3Lz+3T, 3A+3T (arguably), 3F+2T, 3Lo, 3A, 3S, 2A
Yoshie Onda at 2002 Worlds (probably in 2003, too): 3A, 3L, 3F, 3S, 3Lo, 3L+2T, 3T+3T+SEQ (kinda), 2A, 2A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-q7FV2C-tCQ
Ludmila Nelidina at 2003 Skate America: 3A, 3Lz+3T (doubled in the program), 3Lo, 3S, 3F, 3L, 2A+3T+SEQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agL2rhb6G_o
Kimmie Meissner at 2005 Nationals: 3F, 3Lz+3T (doubled in the program), 3A, 3Lo, 3S, 3Lz, 3F+2T+2Lo
Mao Asada at 2013 4CC: 3Lo, 3A, 3F+3Lo, 3Lz, 2A+3T, 3S (doubled), 3F+2Lo+2Lo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3zf0D3M1sk
I'm pretty sure Yukari Nakano was trying 8-triple programs with either 3Lz+3T and/or 3F+3Lo combinations at some point circa 2002-3 too.
We know Yu Na skating cleanly at the Games will probably get 150+ in the LP and 75+ in the SP. The question is would a clean Kostner or clean Asada be able to get similar to that or higher? I somewhat doubt it, maybe the 75+ SP for Asada now that she is trying both a triple axel and 3-3 in the short, but not Kostner doing only a triple toe-triple toe. In the LP I doubt either of them getting in the 150+ territory even if they went clean. Unfortunately Kostner and Asada are unlikely to skate cleanly anyway, so we probably wont ever find out the answer for sure, and it will remain speculative.
As for the spirals Kim and Mao typically got the same points on that so that doesnt even make any difference. At most on rare occasion Mao might gain half a point more, big de whoop. While all the other new rules (eg- more points for triple axel, allowed both triple axel and triple-triple in short, greatly devaluing GOE points on jumps where Mao will always be way beneath Kim and several others but now loses less marks, not allowing double axel-triple toe) were clearly designed to boost Mao's chances and diminish some others, especialy Kim.
Now back to Sotnikova and possibly Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaia you people are also forgetting the factor of home ice scoring. A person going clean on home ice will probably get 10 points or more than they would somewhere else. Like for instance it is obvious at Worlds by the scores a clean Osmond would have beaten a clean Gold and clean Sotnikova at Worlds but that probably wouldnt ever happen in neutral territory. The Russians are better at politics than Canadians so that will probably be even more true on Russian home ice. Also these are young skaters, along with Gold, who might improve alot in a year. So one shouldnt assume their 2013 hypothetical best would be the same as their 2014 one.
More what I FEAR; not just what I think will happen.
1. Plushenko ("the best of home cooking" is the real title of the program)
1. Stepanova/Bukin (IMO, they'll be the huge 'scandal surprise' of the year)
2. Davis/White (a controversial 2nd...thanks to Russian home cooking)
Dick Button Historical Quote of the Month: "With them it's all about the most movement per measure." (commenting on Bestemianova/Bukin, during the 1988 Olympics, Calgary)
So just because I dont think a clean Kim is guaranteed to win every event by 25-30 points anymore means I am a Kim hater now? What nonsense. I voted for Kim is the best skater ever poll, I have highly praised her in many threads. Funny thing is I was called a Kim uber a few months ago and now I am supposably a Kim hater. I guess for extreme fans if you either dont kiss ass nonstop or kick ass nonstop it is never good enough.
Worlds this year showed a clean Kim is not as unbeatable as she once was if others skated clean. Now the others all have consistency problems so 95% likely Kim will win her 2nd Olympic Gold and 3rd World gold easily next year. I dont deny that. However in a thread about everyone doing clean this years Worlds showed in that unlikely hypothetical she would have much more problems than in the past. Kostner had an easier jump combo and fell and still was less than 3 points back of her of the short. Had she landed it she would have win the short over Kim even with an easier combo and Kim going clean. Then the LP she skated a clean LP like Vancouver but gets lower points.
Maybe she would win if all went clean, and I agree concede she medals. I did think Kostner, Asada, Gold, Sotnikova could all have a chance vs a clean Kim if all go clean, but if all 5 go clean, the judges make sure only 2 at most beat Kim so she atleast gets a medal. I just dont think clean Kim is way ahead of others if they ever skated skated clean to (which almost certainly wont anyway) like she used to be. Recent signs and scores show this too. It doesnt mean I hate Kim.
She attempted 2+6=8 triples in 2010, she attempts 3+8=11 triples now. That's 3 triples more overall. Start with that.Originally Posted by kwanoverrated
The ladies is the hardest to say. There are 12-15 contenders and if all skated cleanly they could all come in almost any order, and if they all made mistakes they could also all come in almost any order. The only way it is obvious is if someone skated clean like Kim at the 2013 Worlds and the others don't.