Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 54
  1. #21
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    83
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Predictions if everyone skates cleanly (which will never happen:

    Ladies-

    1. Kim- 75+ points short program, 150+ points long program. Out of reach for all others even if clean.
    2. Kostner or Asada. Cant decide who would come out ahead here. Mao's base value is much higher but GOE and PCS would be both lower.
    4. Don't know, about 10 women could come 4th if everyone skates perfectly.


    Men:

    1. Fernandez- he is improving and by next year will be unbeatable if clean. He already has the highest base value but his GOE and PCS will improve rapidly too.

    2. Hanyu

    3. Chan- after scandals of last year marks will be lower even for clean skate, and tons lower for mistakes.

    4. Takahashi

    5. Don't know, about 6 different men could finish here if all clean.


    Pairs:

    1. Voloshar Trankov
    2. Savchenko & Szolkowy
    3. Barazova & Larinov- in Russia will be given medal for sure if clean, no matter what others do.
    4. Pang & Tong
    5. Canadian team



    My actual predictions, no longer a stupid all clean fantasy:

    Women:

    1. Kim- she would win even if all are clean and the others wont be clean and she will so of course same result, just even more lopsided now.
    2. kostner- will probably make serious mistakes, but not as much as Mao.
    3. Wagner
    4. Asada- she is attempting a program that is beyond her abilities and she has no chance of skating cleanly and even a good skate for her is 2 or 3 mistakes.
    5. Gold or Osmond


    Pairs:

    Same gold and silver. Bronze to Dumahel & Radfordzzzz since they are consistent and will take advantage of mistakes.


    Men:

    1. Fernandez
    2. Takahashi
    3. Hanyu- will mess up
    4. U.S man, probably Aaron
    5. Chan- will mess up, even a good skate for him is like 3 mistakes these days.

  2. #22
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    83
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Those who think a clean Kostner could ever beat a clean Kim are smoking some funny stuff. Kostner wouldn't win in any area now if both are clean- GOE, PCS, base value. The only reason she got similar PCS last year was being reigning World Champion, but that wont happen this year. Plus it was only in the short program where Kim had a super boring routine performed like a zombie, and skating in one of the weenie flights. Atleast Asada I can somewhat see ones thinking based on her base value, even though I totally disagree, and am not even sure she would beat a clean Kostner.

    Sotnikova wouldn't be top 5 if all are clean. Ugly jumps, boring presentation, weird music, terrible flutz and flip technique.

  3. #23

    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    24,950
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    91872
    My predictions- although it's impossible that everyone would skate clean

    Ladies:

    1.Kim
    2.Kostner
    3.Tuktamysheva (if she makes the Olympic team)
    4.Asada
    5.Sotnikova

    Men:

    1.Chan (a clean Chan is unbeatable)
    2.Fernandez (his 3 quads will beat 2-quad programs)
    3.Plushenko
    4.Hanyu
    5.Takahashi

    Pairs:

    1.V&T
    2.S&S
    3. B&L
    4.P&T
    5.D&R

    Ice dance:

    1.D&S
    2.V&M
    3.Bobrova-Soloviev or I&K- whoever has better programs
    4.I&K or B&S
    5.P&B

  4. #24
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    83
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    You think Tuktamysheva would beat asada if both go clean? Or that is you prediction based on how you think they would skate (and we all know Mao isn't doing what she plans clean in a million years).

  5. #25

    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    24,950
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    91872
    Quote Originally Posted by rickmercer View Post
    You think Tuktamysheva would beat asada if both go clean? Or that is you prediction based on how you think they would skate (and we all know Mao isn't doing what she plans clean in a million years).
    Tuk has a strong 3lutz-3t combination. Asada does not do the lutz. Her 3A-2t is awesome combination but not enough (in points) to overcome Tuk's strong jumps. I love Asada, but it's hard to imagine her doing a completely clean program without ur or edge calls. I know this thread is only hypothetical, but Tuk's strong jumping technique and improved artistry may just give her the edge on home ice (Bronze for Russia, in a close competition). Her biggest obstacle is domestic- she has to skate well the whole season to make the team.

  6. #26

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    513
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by lahaa968 View Post
    There was a second triple salchow, so that makes 8 total.
    According to the rules, you cannot repeat more than 2 triple jumps in a program. The only way you can have an 8 triple program is to have a triple axel. Neither Bonaly nor Slutskaya had one.

  7. #27
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    84
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01
    Tuk has a strong 3lutz-3t combination. Asada does not do the lutz. Her 3A-2t is awesome combination but not enough (in points) to overcome Tuk's strong jumps.
    Huh? Are you talking about 2010 maybe?
    Asada flutzes, but this is still "doing" a lutz (albeit a flawed one) and that counts for points under this system. She doesn't have to do any 3A-2T either anymore but goes for a single 3A in the SP and the LP. Considering she skates clean, it would even mean she did a 3F-3Lo, which I think is no easier combo than the 3Lz3T due to the 3Lo at the end. I like Tuktamysheva, but if Asada is clean, there's no way Tuk would beat her on the jumps.
    And then there are other things than jumps... Tuk won't even come close to Asada on steps, spins and PCS.
    Even if you think Tuk is more likely to be clean - Asada doesn't need to be clean to beat her. What were Tuk's highest scores last season? 131+ in the LP at Euros... but the SP? It was 58+ at TEB with a flawed 3T3T and a 3Lz - even with 3Lz3T it won't be that much higher (Lipnitskaya with better spins is around 63+). Combined, that's about 194. Asada scored 196+ at worlds with a flawed LP and a pretty bad SP which is still higher. She also had 3 Jumps URed and one popped at 4CC and still got a 205.45.

    Skating decently, the Big 3 will be the ones to get the medals. I don't think any other skater has a shot to overtake them then.

  8. #28
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Northern Virginia
    Posts
    1,437
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Let's see, if everyone skates their programs with clean double jumps, ...

    Having thoroughly rejected the word "clean" as completely meaningless (see "What's your definition of a "clean" program?" thread) I am going to instead address "if everyone skates the planned choreography with all the hoped for levels and positive GOE" what would the results be.

    Since Patrick Chan has shown he can win with multiple errors, I don't see any way he wouldn't also win if he landed everything. Next would be Takahashi, since the only thing limiting his results to date has been his jumping errors and we are assuming there will be no jump errors by anyone. The wildcards here are Lysacek and Plushenko, since we don't know yet, realistically, what jumps they will be capable of doing by next February. Assuming they both include quads (which they both talk about doing), I think they would be battling for bronze. Lysacek was already beating Plushenko in PCS when they last competed, and I think his dance work with improve on that, so my podium is 1-Chan, 2-Takahashi, 3-Lysacek.

    Ladies - The "land everything they hope to land" assumption gives Asada triple axels in both programs (maybe 2 in the fs?), so I think she would win in this scenario. I can't see Kim dropping worse than 2nd (although she should because she is hugely overmarked on some PCS). Since Kostner is now doing 5 different triples and will no doubt plan to include 3F-3T, I'd put her third.

    I find I just can't get into thinking about pairs, as I think the current crop all kind of suck. Since Savcheko/S suck mainly because of their element errors and we are assuming no errors, then that would give them gold. The rest of the candidates are not worthy of an Olympic podium so I can't even think about 2nd and 3rd.

  9. #29
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    23
    Posts
    13,291
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Why speculate on a clean competition since it will never happen. However just for the heck of it if everyone is clean the results would go:

    Ladies

    Gold-Kim: I would say Kim, Asada, and Kostner all skating cleanly she is only 55-60% likely to win vs the 85-90% likely she is to win in reality forgetting the all clean scenario. Still I think that would be the most likely outcome even if all were to be clean, although not as much the near lock as how they are likely to all skate.

    Silver- Asada: She has no chance to skate her current programs clean, which is why I dont think she will do any better than bronze unless Kostner bombs, and could even easily fall off the podium. However as it specified all clean I am guessing she would end up 2nd in that never going to happen scenario, although could end up 1st or 3rd as well possibly.

    Bronze- Kostner: Not sure how she would overtake a clean Kim even skating cleanly, and Asada's difficulty would make it a big challenge for Kostner to overtake her too in the fantasy idea Mao skated cleanly.



    Men:

    Gold- Takahashi: At the Grand Prix final he made as many errors as Chan and won when Chan was 4th so I think he could even beat a clean Chan if he were to skate clean himself. Especialy with the negative buzz surrounding Chan now. Sadly almost no chance of Takahashi skating cleanly these days though.

    Silver- Chan: Judges give him gold with 10 falls so of course clean he wins gold or silver. I think he is going to be off the podium in Sochi at this point, but that is because we all know he is going to be far from clean. In reality the all clean results of the mens event are going to be far apart from the real results probably.

    Bronze- Fernandez: I think with his base value it would be hard for him not to win atleast bronze skating cleanly, despite that Hanyu gets very high GOE and high marks all around from the judges. I think in an all clean competition Fernandez would win the long program but be only 4th in the short (at best) well behind Chan, Hanyu, and Takahashi, so it depends the gap in the short in this case.


    As for Plushenko and Lysacek I suspect they would only be about 7th or 8th in an all clean competition. Plushenko in decent health is more likely to skate cleanly than anyone so could be as high as 4th or 5th despite that though. I dont see Evan even at the Games, but if he is somehow I expect alot of mistakes from him, especialy if he attempts a quad, and likely to come something like 12th.



    Pairs- nothing to talk about. Likely results and all clean results are one and the same. Russians easy winners, Germans pretty easy second, bronze a crapshoot amongst a bunch of teams and whoever skates best among 1 or 2 Canadian, 1 or 2 other Russian, 1 or 2 Chinese team that day.

    Dance- nothing to talk about. Davis & White vs Virtue & Moir, if both skate cleanly as probably will depends on judges preference and programs, and possible for one to make a small mistake and beat the other clean even depending on that too. One makes a big mistake, very unlikely, that team autmoatically bumped to silver. Bronze a crapshoot just like pairs, and comes down to 3 or 4 teams and how they are scored that day.

  10. #30
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    159
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by rickmercer View Post
    Those who think a clean Kostner could ever beat a clean Kim are smoking some funny stuff. Kostner wouldn't win in any area now if both are clean- GOE, PCS, base value. The only reason she got similar PCS last year was being reigning World Champion, but that wont happen this year. Plus it was only in the short program where Kim had a super boring routine performed like a zombie, and skating in one of the weenie flights. Atleast Asada I can somewhat see ones thinking based on her base value, even though I totally disagree, and am not even sure she would beat a clean Kostner.
    Your expressions are pretty inappropriate, child.

    If you do you research, Kostner has always been well rewarded by judges, even with her most dire skates (she received ~58 in PCS for her disastrous 2010 OG FP). Now that in the last three years, she has finally begun to reach the greatness everyone saw in her when she first appeared, and judges are rewarding her even more. She is now a premier artistic skater by the judges standards.

    At the 2013 Worlds, Carolina's FP received 131.03 for a five-triple program with a popped 3R and a fall on a 3S. Her PCS were of around 70.8~, and all her components ranged (with the exception of transitions) around the high 8's (8.89 and such) and even 9.04 for IN. Keep in mind, that was for a performance with mistakes. On the other hand, when Kim makes mistakes, her PCS can float all the way between ~66 (2011WC) and 69 (~2012NRW).

    To top that off, when Carolina lands the jumps, she scores massive GOE, in the same ballpark as Kim. She has all her triples back now, and her 3Lz at 2013WC received +1.60GOE; by my calculation that means she received all +2's and a couple +3's for the jump. Also like Kim, Kostner is a skater who receives strong GOE for easier jumps as well. She scores many +2's for her 2A's, 3T's, and 3S's, just like Kim. Also like Kim, Kostner receives great GOE for her footwork (probably the best in the business) and spins, not to mention the levels.

    All that being said, if Kostner delivers a clean, complete performance, with 7 triples as she planned last season, I most definitely think she will be in the mix versus Kim for the OGM.

    Now, all facts aside, we all know Kostner can be a fragile competitor at times. Her consistency, focus and strength under pressure has increased positively in the last few years, but still, she's not the competitive machine that Kim is. That's what it all comes down to, I believe.

  11. #31
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    3,518
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Pairs- nothing to talk about. Likely results and all clean results are one and the same. Russians easy winners, Germans pretty easy second, bronze a crapshoot amongst a bunch of teams and whoever skates best among 1 or 2 Canadian, 1 or 2 other Russian, 1 or 2 Chinese team that day.
    Who is the other Chinese team that can crack the top seven from worlds last year? P/T aren't a lock on the bronze if the even can compete at all given his injuries.

  12. #32
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    23
    Posts
    13,291
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    I didnt say Pang & Tong were a lock for bronze by any stretch. I just consider them one of a bunch of teams in contention for it, especialy in a proposed all clean competition (lets face it, Pang & Tong are unlikely to skate clean, but if they did they would post a score atleast competitive with all but V&T and S&S). As for the other, well you are right there probably isnt another, but I was just thinking in the unlikely event He-Man Zhang and his new partner improved alot in the off season. I do think they have alot of potential but probably wont happen in the next year.

  13. #33

    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    My old Kentucky home, far away
    Age
    37
    Posts
    4,429
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    5515
    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    Men:

    1.Chan (a clean Chan is unbeatable)
    2.Fernandez (his 3 quads will beat 2-quad programs)
    3.Plushenko
    4.Hanyu
    5.Takahashi
    In what world does a clean Plushenko beat a clean Takahashi? Daisuke would have the edge on PCS, if everything is scored correctly.

  14. #34
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    wherever they cheer for Davis/White
    Posts
    1,124
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by ohashibiles View Post
    Don't count dance since everyone always skates cleanly in dance, no risk elements, and it just depends on what the judges think at the time.
    I'm sorry... what?! this is one of the most riddiculous and ignorant statements about ice dancing I've seen lately. Agreed that there are no jumps and less "risk elements", but for heaven's sake, do you have any idea how hard it is to skate a dance program cleanly? When every freakin' step counts, every edge (in the compulsory section at least)? Then you have the twizzles, very easy to mess up, the pair spin, the lifts. No risk elements? Jumps aren't the only risk elements in figure skating.

    Anyways, if everyone is clean, the golds will go to Chan, Kim and V/T. Luckily, everyone is never clean and that's the beauty of it

  15. #35
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Posts
    12,333
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by mia joy View Post
    I'm sorry... what?! this is one of the most riddiculous and ignorant statements about ice dancing I've seen lately.
    It's not as if the rest of his/her post was clever.

  16. #36
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    with my Sestra Helena plotting how to ravish Hot Paul and delicious Cal
    Age
    36
    Posts
    3,260
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Men:

    Any of Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahashi, Javier Fernandez, Yuzuru Hanyu, Takahiko Kozuka, Denis Ten, Evgeni Plushenko, and Jeremy Abbott could round out the top 5 if clean.

    Ladies:

    Any of Yu-Na Kim, Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada, Ashley Wagner, Akiko Suzuki, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, and Adelina Sotnikova could round out the top 5 if clean.

    Pairs:

    Any of Volosozhar/Trankov, Savchenko/Szolkowy, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Duhamel/Radford, Bazarova/Larionov, and Moore-Towers/Moscovitch could round out the top 5 if clean.

  17. #37
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    23
    Posts
    13,291
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    A clean Gold has much more chance of top 5 than a clean Suzuki, especialy in a really well skated event. In a perfectly skated event by all Suzuki would never be top 5 at this point actually, despite that I do really like her and her skating. Maybe if the Games were in Nagano or Tokyo that would be possible.

    Jeremy Abbott would also never top 5 in a cleanly skated event at this point.

  18. #38
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    83
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by lahaa968 View Post
    If you do you research, Kostner has always been well rewarded by judges, even with her most dire skates (she received ~58 in PCS for her disastrous 2010 OG FP).
    If you did your research or followed skating more closely you would realize all big name skaters get decent PCS even when they bomb. In an Olympics (when the scores are always sky high) Kim could fall 2 times and stumble another 2 in a free skate and her PCS wouldnt dip below 62 probably. Chan can skate most of the program on his ass and still get loads of 9s for PCS, which isnt true of Kostner.

    At the 2013 Worlds, Carolina's FP received 131.03 for a five-triple program with a popped 3R and a fall on a 3S. Her PCS were of around 70.8~, and all her components ranged (with the exception of transitions) around the high 8's (8.89 and such) and even 9.04 for IN. Keep in mind, that was for a performance with mistakes. On the other hand, when Kim makes mistakes, her PCS can float all the way between ~66 (2011WC) and 69 (~2012NRW).
    Poor reasoning. You use an example of Kim from the 2011 Worlds and compare to 2013 examples for Kostner. Why choose to do this, oh yeah it is the only way you can indirectly find something that looks good for Kostner in a scoring comparision. Everyone knows scores escalate throughout a quad, and using a 2011 example vs a 2013 example is stupid.

    Why not instead compare Kim's PCS to Kostner PCS at the 2011 Worlds itself where Kostner had the cleaner and more inspiring free skate performance and got much lower PCS than Kim who had the highest PCS of anyone despite one of her worst performances. Why not use 2010 Worlds where Kim was awful in both short and long for her standards, perhaps her worst competition ever, and still beat a quite decent/good Kostner (as far as performance and cleanliness, not counting her stupid COP layouts which cost her technical points and the bronze medal) in PCS in both quite comfortably, and was even given much higher PCS than a very clean and excellent Asada.

    Kostner and Kim have competed against each other in probably atleast 20 programs and Kostner has only gotten higher PCS in one ever that I know of, the SP of the 2013 Worlds. That includes the odd program Kostner had similar or lesser mistakes than Kim.


    The reason Kostner wouldnt beat a clean Kim is she cant get ahead in anything. She might come close in GOE, PCS, and now with her lutz and triple-triple back base value, but she wouldnt actually be ahead in any. So there is no place she would get ahead. If Kim is getting loads of +3s in GOE and lots of mid to high 9s (and some 10s) in PCS like Worlds only someone with more difficulty can beat her. That isnt Kostner. Maybe Mao if by some miracle she did her layout from hell cleanly I could see someone thinking, even if I wouldnt agree I could understand the logic.



    One just has to look at Kim and Kostner's whole careers and it is obvious not only who is more consistent but who generally has more scoring potential. Kostner isnt the answer to either of those questions, although I will admit in scoring potential she is atleast much closer than in consistency.


    Here are some videos of Kostner vs Kim over the years:

    Kostner's gorgeous and perfect SP at 2007 Worlds:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XX1kxQLMsw

    Kim's gorgeous and flawless SP at same event with same jumps, which scored 4 points higher:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FmncaNGLOI

    Kim's flawed LPs at 2010 and 2011 Worlds which
    still easily beat Kostner's closer to clean performances overall and more importantly in PCS:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4n-LGvSTiE
    Kim 2010 Worlds

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=115JqhlfRVM
    Kim 2011 Worlds

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49l915RUHPY
    Kostner 2010 Worlds

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEHzfiygvtU
    Kostner 2011 Worlds


    Kostner at 2008 Grand Prix final skating similar with about same amount of mistakes than Kim :

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKIa_CXuuGo
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8k7j_gPrSqU
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRPy_uvdDMk
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYDvQ28JibE


    I could add the 2010 Olympics for the simple reason as even a clean Kostner couldnt skate nor score like that ever, but anyway I think it already more than made the point.
    Last edited by rickmercer; 08-25-2013 at 11:57 PM. Reason: Added some youtube videos

  19. #39
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    205
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Sotnikova and Gold could beat a clean Yu Na Kim if Asada and Kostner havent already beaten Kim, and Kim still gets a medal. The judges would never allow a clean Yu Na Kim to not medal though, so in a case all skated cleanly atleast 2 of Asada, Kostner, Sotnikova, and Gold would be placed lower to make sure of a medal for Kim.

    A clean Chan would not be allowed to not medal so atleast 1 of a clean Takahashi, clean Hanyu, or clean Fernandez would be placed below him to ensure a medal atleast for clean Chan.

    The German pair would beat the top Russian pair if both skate cleanly. The 2012 Grand Final proves that. Even with inflated PCS for the Russians, they skated cleanly and still lost to the Germans with mistakes. Lucky for Tatiana and Maxim the Germans almost never skate cleanly, and rarely come close so top Russians will probably win Olympic Games.

  20. #40
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Posts
    12,333
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by kwanoverrated View Post
    Sotnikova and Gold could beat a clean Yu Na Kim if Asada and Kostner havent already beaten Kim, and Kim still gets a medal. The judges would never allow a clean Yu Na Kim to not medal though, so in a case all skated cleanly atleast 2 of Asada, Kostner, Sotnikova, and Gold would be placed lower to make sure of a medal for Kim.

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •