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  1. #1
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    Top 5 at Olympics in pairs, ladies and men if all skate cleanly

    What would happen at the Olympics if everyone was clean. Don't count dance since everyone always skates cleanly in dance, no risk elements, and it just depends on what the judges think at the time. My guesses would be are:

    Ladies:

    Gold- Kostner
    Silver- Asada
    Bronze- Sotnikova
    4th- Gold
    5th- Kim


    Men:

    Gold- Takahashi
    Silver- Fernandez
    Bronze- Hanyu
    4th- Chan
    5th- Reynolds


    Pairs:

    Gold- #1 Russians
    Silver- #1 Canadians
    Bronze- Germans
    4th- Pang & tong
    5th- Americans or #2 Canadians


    We know it isn't likely everyone skates clean so Kim will probably win capatilizing on others mistakes as always. Chan who is less inconsistent than the other men will probably win by that, despite not being totally consistent himself. #1 Canadian pair likely to make enough mistakes to let Russians and Germans atleast beat them, despite that they would win atleast silver and maybe gold if all were clean.

    What do you think top 5 in all events but dance would be if all were clean though. Suspend reality as we know that probably wont happen, just for fun what would happen if that happened.

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    I was not sure on bronze between Sotnkikova and Gold, and gold between Asada and Kostner if all are clean. That was both tough calls. It would be Kostner's GOE and PCS vs Mao's base value. Gold's TES vs Sotnikova's PCS.

    For men I went with Takahashi's PCS over Fernandez's base value and Hanyu's GOEs.

  3. #3
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    Sotnikova and Gold beating Kim? Ummm okay. Chan in 4th is even more absurd, the lowest he could be is 3rd and if he's clean no way would he be even that low.

    Ladies:

    1.) Kim
    2.) Kostner
    3.) Asada
    4.) Suzuki
    5.) Wagner

    Men:

    1.) Chan
    2.) Hanyu
    3.) Takahashi
    4.) Fernandez
    5.) Abbott

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by ohashibiles View Post
    We know it isn't likely everyone skates clean so Kim will probably win capatilizing on others mistakes as always. Chan who is less inconsistent than the other men will probably win by that, despite not being totally consistent himself. #1 Canadian pair likely to make enough mistakes to let Russians and Germans atleast beat them, despite that they would win atleast silver and maybe gold if all were clean.
    chan is less inconsistency than the other man...? chan is nothing good in terms of "consistency". This is the greatest weakness of him
    if I should pick a skater who is the least inconsistency in the mens field now, Although all of the mens can not be considered "consistent", I would say it is fernandez

  5. #5
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    Ladies

    1) Asada
    2) Kim
    3) Kostner
    4) Wagner
    5) Suzuki

    If the requirement is clean, then I would think Asada with a clean 3A and all other jumps would push her over the edge with a sentimental PCS boost to beat Kim's 3Z-3T. 3~5 are just random guesses.

    Men

    1) Chan
    2) Takahashi
    3) Hanyu
    4) Fernandez
    5) Kozuka

    No way in the universe a clean Chan with 4T-3T, 4T, 3A, and his PCS would put him 4th. Chan is inconsistent and that's his biggest problem but this thread is about if they all skate clean. Takahashi's PCS would put him over the rest and I do think Kozuka is in the top 5 or even beating Fernandez.

    Pairs

    1) V/T
    2) S/S
    3) D/R
    4) P/T
    5) B/L

    I may put S/S over V/T if they have throw 3A, but I think it's hard for any team to beat V/T if they are clean. D/R's high technical content would put them solidly on the podium over other teams behind them but not V/T and S/S.
    Last edited by walei; 08-22-2013 at 07:24 AM.

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    1. Chan: High BV, highest GOE and PCS
    2. Takahashi
    3. Fernandez: highest base value and slightly stronger PCS
    4. Hanyu
    5. Tough one. Reynolds has high BV and clean would score higher-than-merited PCS. A clean Kozuka would still be an underscored Kozuka. Ditto Joubert. Probably Plushenko.

    1. Asada (Clean with the triple axels)
    1. Kostner (Asada without the triple axels)
    2. Kim
    3. Asada (without the triple axels)
    4. Wagner
    5. Korpi (she attempts seven triples and her PCS would be high)

    1. V/T
    2. S/S (very close with the 3A, but V/T would win on GOE and BV)
    3. D/R (Base value, base value, base value)
    4. P/T
    5. B/L

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    If they all skate clean (and Evan will not be competing)

    1. Chan
    2. Fernandez
    3. Takahashi
    4. Hanyu
    5. Plushenko

    but this is a very unlikely scenario. When is the last time Chan has skated clean? And that is not going to happen at the Olympics, unless he starts to use the services of a good jumping coach.
    Last edited by Jaana; 08-22-2013 at 10:48 AM.

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    I've decided not to make predictions just yet, so as not to jinx my favorites.
    "I hit him with my shoes... if he had given me the medal like I told him to, I wouldn't have had to hit him!" -- 8-year-old Rhoda Penmark in "The Bad Seed"

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    Quote Originally Posted by ohashibiles View Post
    We know it isn't likely everyone skates clean so Kim will probably win capatilizing on others mistakes as always. Chan who is less inconsistent than the other men will probably win by that, despite not being totally consistent himself. #1 Canadian pair likely to make enough mistakes to let Russians and Germans atleast beat them, despite that they would win atleast silver and maybe gold if all were clean.
    .

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    that's not going to happen,so...

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    Ladies:

    1.) Asada - as I think her huge BV + the judges being excited about the first 8-triples FS from any lady in history would be enough.
    2.) Kim - huge BV and PCS, but...
    3.) Kostner - I think it would be verv close between Kostner and Kim. Maybe Kostner could even edge out the silver, but it's hard to say.
    4.) Suzuki - because I'm optimistic *cough*
    5.) Gold/Sotnikova - not sure who'd score higher out of these two, but I think they have the content and skills to really score well.

    Ashley might also be a possibility, if she get's the 3-3 and the 2A-3T.

    Men:

    1.) Chan - although I'm not as sure about it as a lot of other poeple, I guess. His BV is less than Takahashi, Hanyu, Fernandez and others; his PCS aren't that much higher than Takahashi anymore, and his GOE get matched by Hanyus. Maybe, if the others get better programs or work on their skills over the off-season, clean Chan would not be unbeatable anymore.
    2.) Fernandez - especially if he does two quads in his SP. He has the highest LP score from last season and even if you look at all the best done elements from the whole season, his LP is still the strongest.
    3.) Takahashi - it's very, very close though between him and...
    4.) Hanyu - who has the higher TES compared to Takahashis higher PCS. Maybe it will come down to who has the better programs.
    5.) Kozuka - he does two 4T's and two 3A's so his BV is high, and he can garner very good GOE.

    Plushenko is obviously a possibility too, but I just don't know what to expect from him at all...

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by ohashibiles View Post
    We know it isn't likely everyone skates clean so Kim will probably win capatilizing on others mistakes as always.
    Just say you hate Yuna, that's okay

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    Quote Originally Posted by ohashibiles View Post
    We know it isn't likely everyone skates clean so Kim will probably win capatilizing on others mistakes as always. Chan who is less inconsistent than the other men will probably win by that, despite not being totally consistent himself. #1 Canadian pair likely to make enough mistakes to let Russians and Germans atleast beat them, despite that they would win atleast silver and maybe gold if all were clean.
    I am having what you are having!
    As of March 2013 - no longer scared of TAHbKA or Andrey aka Pushkin

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Ladies:

    1.) Asada - as I think her huge BV + the judges being excited about the first 8-triples FS from any lady in history would be enough.
    Surya Bonaly, 1995 Worlds FS. 8 Triples. It's been done already. And I'm sure Slutskaya pulled off an 8 triple long at a random GP event that I can't think of.

    Ladies:

    1. Kim (Consistent, Big GOE accumulator across the board, Big PCS, and reigning OC)
    2/3. Asada or Kostner. I couldn't decide here. I'm 900% sure Kostner would get a higher PCS score, but if Asada pulls out 8 clean triples with full rotations I do wonder how Carolina can compare on her technical score. That said, had she skated clean at 2013 Worlds, Kostner would've scored ~70 TES, while Mao has to really hassle and bring it all out to get near 70 (last time was at 2011 4CC, IIRC).
    4. Wagner (Great overall skater, but just not at the level of the Kostner, Kim or Asada.
    5. Tuktamysheva (I feel like she's gonna bring a big show for her home crowd, but again maybe not at the level of the other ladies)

    Men:

    1. Chan
    2. Takahashi
    3. Fernandez
    4. Abbott
    5. Ten

    Dance:

    1. Davis/White
    2. Virtue/Moir
    3. Pechalat/Bourzat
    4. Bobrova/Soloviev
    5. Weaver/Poje

    Pairs:

    1. Voloshozar/Trankov
    2. Savchenko/Solkowy
    3. Duhamel/Radford
    4. Moors-Tower/Moscovitch
    5. Kavaguti-Smirnov

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Ladies:

    1.) Asada - as I think her huge BV + the judges being excited about the first 8-triples FS from any lady in history would be enough.
    2.) Kim - huge BV and PCS, but...
    3.) Kostner - I think it would be verv close between Kostner and Kim. Maybe Kostner could even edge out the silver, but it's hard to say.
    4.) Suzuki - because I'm optimistic *cough*
    5.) Gold/Sotnikova - not sure who'd score higher out of these two, but I think they have the content and skills to really score well.
    In my opinion,
    between carolina kostner and yuna kim
    Base Value ~ kim has a bit higher BV than kostner
    GOE~ kim should get more goe than kostner
    PCS ~ I think kim's would be slightly(1 or 2) higher than kostner if two are clean
    So, I think kim would beat kostner

    kostner would lose in BV, GOE=TES. The only way kostner can beat kim is kostner gets much(4~5?) higher PCS than kim
    Last edited by karlon; 08-22-2013 at 03:30 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lahaa968 View Post
    Surya Bonaly, 1995 Worlds FS. 8 Triples. It's been done already. And I'm sure Slutskaya pulled off an 8 triple long at a random GP event that I can't think of.
    Bonaly's FS jumps at 1995 Worlds:
    3z2t
    2a-2a (seq.)
    3r
    3f3t
    split-3t-3s (seq.)
    3z

    Impressive, but that's seven, not eight. I don't think Slutskaya ever managed an eight-triple free skate, either.
    I can call the moon a pear, but it doesn't make it so. -- kwanfan1818

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by falling_dance
    Impressive, but that's seven, not eight. I don't think Slutskaya ever managed an eight-triple free skate, either.
    Yes Midori Ito attempted an 8-triple FS once, I think, but sadly popped one of her jumps.

    Quote Originally Posted by karlon
    In my opinion,
    between carolina kostner and yuna kim
    Base Value ~ kim has a bit higher BV than kostner
    GOE~ kim should get more goe than kostner
    PCS ~ I think kim's would be slightly(1 or 2) higher than kostner if two are clean
    So, I think kim would beat kostner

    kostner would lose in BV, GOE=TES. The only way kostner can beat kim is kostner gets much(4~5?) higher PCS than kim
    That is what I feel is so difficult to say. Yes, Yunas BV is higher, but not by that much. And from the way those two were scored at worlds, I'd actually say Kostner would win the PCS (and honestly, I think that if she's clean, Kostner deserves the highest PCS overall). GOE will be very close too, Kostner jumps do have nice qualities, and her spins and steps are very good too. It would be so exciting to see this happening!

    Quote Originally Posted by lahaa968
    1. Chan
    2. Takahashi
    3. Fernandez
    4. Abbott
    5. Ten
    No way clean Hanyu wouldn't beat clean Ten (and Abbott, albeit that's a little more debatable).

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by falling_dance View Post
    Bonaly's FS jumps at 1995 Worlds:
    3z2t
    2a-2a (seq.)
    3r
    3f3t
    split-3t-3s (seq.)
    3z

    Impressive, but that's seven, not eight. I don't think Slutskaya ever managed an eight-triple free skate, either.
    There was a second triple salchow, so that makes 8 total.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post



    That is what I feel is so difficult to say. Yes, Yunas BV is higher, but not by that much. And from the way those two were scored at worlds, I'd actually say Kostner would win the PCS (and honestly, I think that if she's clean, Kostner deserves the highest PCS overall). GOE will be very close too, Kostner jumps do have nice qualities, and her spins and steps are very good too. It would be so exciting to see this happening!



    No way clean Hanyu wouldn't beat clean Ten (and Abbott, albeit that's a little more debatable).
    Stop. My mind might explode. Carolina winning an OGM would make me have a panic attack of joy.

    I forgot Hanyu (oopz...) he's a contender when he's on, but sometimes I wonder if he's too hungry. And stamina is an issue. He's very inconsistent. In a perfect world, where J. Abbott would have perfect skates at the OG, I would love to see him on the podium. The judges love him, they will shower him with high PCS and GOE...but it hasn't happened yet! (That performance, internationally).

    Truthfully though, there are like 8 men who could make their way to the podium at the OG...maybe more around 6 based on consistency and reputation. But we all know not ALL of them will have breakthrough skates. It happens once every millennium, and the Lu Chen vs. MK @ 1996 Worlds already happened so I wouldn't count on this event being similar. I think it would take a catastrophic, and I mean two falls in the short and five falls in the long, for Chan to not be on the podium. Daisuke and Abbott will be rewarded very well if they deliver I think. If Hanyu and Fernandez can deliver complete programs with all their quads and all, it will be hard for them to be booted off the podium just on the TES alone. Agh. Can we just be put in frozen deep-sleep or something so we don't have to wait so long and see?

    I do think we will have a surprise podium though. It always happens. Look at Daisuke in 2010 (after all his injury), Ten (2013WC), Hanyu (2012WC), Kozuka (2011WC).

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    Quote Originally Posted by lahaa968 View Post
    There was a second triple salchow, so that makes 8 total.
    Not that I can see.
    I can call the moon a pear, but it doesn't make it so. -- kwanfan1818

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