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  1. #121
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    Gold in Skate Canada has Kim so already has no chance at any better than 2nd (Kim is just too consistent to ever lose to anyone not named Asada or Kostner at this point, in any competition), and then about 5 other girls who could easily beat her, about 2 arguably favored to. A nightmare assignment. Her other one isnt much easier IIRC.

    Maybe the USFSA support is still behind Wagner after all. They gave her the weak Skate America field 2 years in a row (especialy considering Mao isnt an early season skater) rather than Gold.

  2. #122
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    Well...Wagner is still the US champion, no? Makes perfect sense to me.

    And besides, I don't buy the theory that USFS is deliberately cutting out an "easy" path for Wagner to the GPF. It just happens that Wagner's biggest US competitors already have two other events. So, the pool to choose from isn't that significant anyway.

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post

    Maybe the USFSA support is still behind Wagner after all. They gave her the weak Skate America field 2 years in a row (especialy considering Mao isnt an early season skater) rather than Gold.
    Wagner got SA two years in a row because she's been US CHAMPION for the past two years. As the SA host, USFS also gets to pick her competition. If Gold had beaten Wagner at Nationals 2013, she'd have Wagner's spot.

    Gold's assignments are the result of other host picks. Are the other hosts trying to lessen Gold's chances at making the GPF? Could be. Gold is a target now that she's a top 6 Worlds competitor.

    Gold has to show up prepared and unintimidated by her competition, and if she does she will do fine.

  4. #124
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    SA tends to go to national champs but if national champ isnt the highest finisher at worlds he or she doesnt go(eg Abbott)

    This is just from the trend as I recall though

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by jlai View Post
    SA tends to go to national champs but if national champ isnt the highest finisher at worlds he or she doesnt go(eg Abbott)

    This is just from the trend as I recall though
    Last time it happened for ladies was SA 2009 when Flatt was picked instead of Czisny.
    That was the infamous SA where Flatt beat Kim in the LP.
    Come to think of it, the ladies competition for SA has been really weak for a few years now. The last time where there was a really strong line-up was in 2008 with Kim, Ando, Nakano, Flatt, and Nagasu.

  6. #126
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    Could someone post a link to the grand prix assignments of Wagner and Gold. I wanted to see who they face this year coming up.

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    GP Ladies' assignments as of Aug. 26: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4631 (Samantha Cesario's name has yet to be added to Skate America)
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    GP Ladies' assignments as of Aug. 26: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4631
    Thanks you so much. You are very kind.

    Well it looks like:

    Skate America (Wagner): Wagner, Asada, Radionova
    Skate Canada (Gold): Kim, Suzuki, Osmond, Gold, Korpi, Leonova, Lipnitskayia, Gao
    NHK (Gold): Asada, Suzuki, Gold, Li, Leonova, Nagasu, Radionova
    Trophee Bompard (Wagner): Kim, Wagner, Sotnikova, Pogorilaya, Korpi, Gao


    Gold has the tougher of the two, but I dont agree people saying Wagner's is all easy. Skate America could be easy, but if Asada and Radionova both skate well and Wagner doesnt she could be 3rd and already in trouble for making final. Then France event is not easy field at all. Kim will beat her, and Sotnikova is a real threat for her, and other dark horses who are dangerous especialy Korpi.

  9. #129
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    Tuk is also at SA. So basically, Wagner only needs to beat one of Tuk, Asada or Radionova to be on the podium. I am not a big fan of the PCS system, as Wagner will get big PCS whether she skates well, or not. Gold, on the other hand, needs to beat many skaters to make the podium, whether at SC or NHK. You have Leonova as a contender, who probably won't be after last year's dismal performance, but all the rest are contenders. Again, at TEB, Wagner only needs to beat one of Kim, Sot, or Korpi to make the podium. She probably will need two seconds, or possibly a second and a third to make the final. I don't think Pogorilaya or Gao are podium contenders

  10. #130
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    I think Ashley's are easier for her to medal, still doesn't mean she will make the final. Honestly the fields are packed except for both of Wagner's assignments. Medal contenders:

    SA - Asada, Radionova, Wagner, Tuktamysheva (Dark horse- Gedevanishvili)
    SC - Osmond, Korpi, Suzuki, Kim, Lipnitskaia, Gao, Gold (Dark horse - Leonova)
    CC - Kostner, Murakami, Sotnikova, Zawadzki (Dark horse - Li)
    NHK - Asada, Suzuki, Radionova, Gold, Nagasu (Dark horse - Gedevanishvili, Leonova, Li)
    TB - Korpi, Kim, Sotnikova, Gao, Wagner
    RC - Osmond, Kostner, Murakami, Lipitskaia, Tuktamysheva, Nagasu, Zawadzki.

    I think Kim is the only given for the GPF. All the people a listed are people that have placed 1-3 recently at Worlds, Jr. Worlds, Europeans, GPF, and GP events with the expection of Li but I think will get a much bigger second mark this year. I think it is going to be a very exciting series with more skaters getting two assignments. Anyone can qualify for the final and predict at least one withdrawal from the GPF so that can always mix things up too.

  11. #131
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    How is Li a dark horse and Nagasu and Zawadzki contenders?? Li showed a much higher standard of skating (and score) than either of those two have ever done, or done recently, at an international event. At this point Zawadzki and Nagasu are about as dangerous as Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya, who aren't even listed in the events you described..
    Last edited by pinky166; 08-31-2013 at 08:21 PM.

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    How is Li a dark horse and Nagasu and Zawadzki contenders?? Li showed a much higher standard of skating (and score) than either of those two have ever done, or done recently, at an international event. At this point Zawadzki and Gao are about as dangerous as Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya, who aren't even listed in the events you described..
    On the GP last season, Mirai and Zijun had the same events. Mirai beat her handily at both

  13. #133
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    Zijun is quickly on the rise though. Her PCS were super low, nobody level, last fall which is how Mirai beat her despite not technically stacking up even on a good day. By Worlds Li atleast gets PCS comparable to someone like Mirai would get, even if low compared to other top 10 in the World. Li skates like Worlds no way is Nagasu beating her.

  14. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    How is Li a dark horse and Nagasu and Zawadzki contenders?? Li showed a much higher standard of skating (and score) than either of those two have ever done, or done recently, at an international event. At this point Zawadzki and Gao are about as dangerous as Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya, who aren't even listed in the events you described..
    Li hasn't medaled at any major jr event (4th Jr GP) or any senior event. It is really that simple, she has had major errors at almost all of her events (mainly short program) and then a good long. Anges and Mirai have medaled last season. The two Russians you posted are not really close to having competitive scores if you look at their actual results. The list I made was of medalist in recent years. I agree that Zawadzki is probably the weakest internationally on that list. (personal best score)

  15. #135
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    The ability to gauge whether a given skater's path will be "easy" or "difficult" can be a bit of a gamble though. Unless I'm mistaken, there is quite a bit of gamesmanship that goes into selecting athletes for 'host country' events, and then bartering that occurs, with serious consideration given to what impact a given skater might have competitively vs. a top host country contender. The only event in which there is a clear 'easy' set would seem to be in Ice Dance, where the two events that Davis/White and Virtue/Moir are NOT competing in, are the only ones in which anyone else would have a shot at a gold, and any of the otherwise 3-4-5 contenders have a legit chance to medal (Cup of China and Cup of Russia).

  16. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarrett View Post
    Li hasn't medaled at any major jr event (4th Jr GP) or any senior event. It is really that simple, she has had major errors at almost all of her events (mainly short program) and then a good long. Anges and Mirai have medaled last season. The two Russians you posted are not really close to having competitive scores if you look at their actual results. The list I made was of medalist in recent years. I agree that Zawadzki is probably the weakest internationally on that list. (personal best score)
    Pogorilaya has an ISU PB of 167 (at a junior event), Korobeynikova 164, and Zawadzki 166. So really, they are comparable in international scores. Don't let Zawadzki's nationals results confuse you about the numbers she usually puts up internationally, which are mid 150s to mid 160s. Last season she had scores of 166, 160, and 158 at ISU events while Pogorilaya had 142, 160, 167, and 160. If you compare the best 3 results and take into account Pogorilaya's numbers all came from junior events, they are pretty even with Pogorilaya being slightly ahead. Korobeynikova last season had not as good results but the season before scored 149, 151 (junior programs), 164. Plus Nagasu only scored 163 at CoC last year, which is a number both Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya can easily match or surpass considering they've done it in international events before.

  17. #137

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    You make a lot of good points, but scores are not perfectly comparable from event to event. It will be interesting to see who comes out ahead when they all skate their best in the same competition.
    Keeper of Nathalie Pechelat's bitchface.

  18. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Pogorilaya has an ISU PB of 167 (at a junior event), Korobeynikova 164, and Zawadzki 166. So really, they are comparable in international scores. Don't let Zawadzki's nationals results confuse you about the numbers she usually puts up internationally, which are mid 150s to mid 160s. Last season she had scores of 166, 160, and 158 at ISU events while Pogorilaya had 142, 160, 167, and 160. If you compare the best 3 results and take into account Pogorilaya's numbers all came from junior events, they are pretty even with Pogorilaya being slightly ahead. Korobeynikova last season had not as good results but the season before scored 149, 151 (junior programs), 164. Plus Nagasu only scored 163 at CoC last year, which is a number both Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya can easily match or surpass considering they've done it in international events before.
    Great.

    Anyway, can't wait for the season to start!

  19. #139
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    I wonder if anyone has seen Zijun Li yet this year. Given her age and body type last season, one would think she would be right on the verge of some sort of growth spurt?

  20. #140
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    Honestly this is one of the best exhibition programs I have seen since Kwan's era. I hope Mirai can tap into this in her competitive programs. Last year's exhibition was lovely too.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAJ0hMV_PsQ
    Last edited by Jarrett; 09-02-2013 at 09:15 PM.

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