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  1. #721
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    The US has no need to push 15 year old's to make their Olympic team unlike Russia which doesn't have a lot of good skaters older then 18.
    What would USFS judges do if Wagner and/or Gold skate like cr&^*p at Nationals, and Polina pulls off two clean programs?!

  2. #722

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    It depends on what you mean by "cr&^*p." Various scenarios have already been touched upon in this thread, if you scroll back.

    ETA that I think this is one of the reasonable/rational posts in this thread:
    Quote Originally Posted by jlai View Post
    I counted 8 ladies with the potential to score over 60 in the short program at nationals. (I think you need to get at least 60 to be top three after the short program, and you definitely need to be in the final flight, which means top 5 or 6 in the short, to have a shot at Sochi). Those 8 are Wagner, Gold, Gao, Agnes, Mirai, Hicks, Wang and Edmunds. Of those 8, Wang and Edmunds are not considered serious contenders and they will need two skates of their lives to get on the team, though it is not impossible. These two have the scoring potential.

    The other six girls are considered serious contenders, but with Mirai's ur, Agnes's problems, Gao's lower scoring potential, Hick's lower pcs potential, Wagner and Gold do seem logical choices at the moment.

    But the Sochi team will come from this 8.
    ETA:

    ISU Season Best short program scores - top U.S. Ladies so far (after Cup of China):

    2 69.45 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2013
    3 69.26 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2013
    8 64.46 Karen CHEN USA ISU JGP Kosice 2013 (Junior in U.S. & age-ineligible)
    10 62.82 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2013
    13 61.41 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Czech Skate 2013
    22 57.87 Ashley CAIN USA Nebelhorn Trophy 2013
    23 57.78 Polina EDMUNDS USA ISU JGP Mexico Cup 2013
    28 56.84 Amber GLENN USA ISU JGP Czech Skate 2013 (Junior in U.S. & age-ineligible)

    Senior B top SP scores:
    Kiri Baga USA 57.91 (Cup of Nice)
    Vanessa Lam USA 56.31 (Finlandia)
    Agnes Zawadzki USA 56.27 (USIC, Salt Lake)
    Courtney Hicks USA 54.80 (USIC, Salt Lake)
    Mirai Nagasu USA 54.01 (Finlandia)
    Last edited by Sylvia; 11-03-2013 at 01:06 AM.
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  3. #723
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    If Polina finishes in the top 3 at nationals, she will be in Sochi. USFS does not rock the boat very often when it comes to selecting teams. Yes exceptions have been made but its been rare. In an Olympic year, with hundreds of reporters watching, they would not deny a 15 year old her Olympic dream. With that said, I don't expect her to crack the top 3.

  4. #724
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    Quote Originally Posted by demetriosj View Post
    What would USFS judges do if Wagner and/or Gold skate like cr&^*p at Nationals, and Polina pulls off two clean programs?!
    I'm just saying unlike Russia the US has more veteran and older skaters who are favored to make the Olympic team even though if someone like Edmunds makes top 3 she will go to Sochi.. Russia's top Ladies are 16 and younger partly because there are no quality older skaters except Leonova.

  5. #725
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    Edmunds (and Wang for that matter) won't factor in, you can count on it.

  6. #726

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    RD being a party pooper again!
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  7. #727
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    Quote Originally Posted by RD View Post
    Edmunds (and Wang for that matter) won't factor in, you can count on it.
    Just like Gracie would never be dropped to 9th place after the SP last year at Nationals since she was the chosen one right?

  8. #728

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    If it's really close between 3rd and 8th after the SP, it is possible the 3rd place finisher will come from the 2nd to last group.
    Keeper of Nathalie Pechelat's bitchface.

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    Quote Originally Posted by orbitz View Post
    Mirai won the SP at Worlds in 2010
    Yep, she placed 1st for her short program and got TES 40.20! Hope she gets by with those UR issues event by event. Since she is a good spinner, I think she has a better chance with the new rules.

  10. #730
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    Quote Originally Posted by demetriosj View Post
    What would USFS judges do if Wagner and/or Gold skate like cr&^*p at Nationals, and Polina pulls off two clean programs?!
    Wagner and Gold will be held up and placed on the team even if they skate like cr*p at Nationals. You can bet on it. So Polina would need to hope for people like Zawadzki, Gao, Hicks to bomb at Nationals, and yes if that happens and she skates lights out anything is possible. Wagner and Gold are irrelevant.

  11. #731

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    Zawadzki was the only U.S. lady competing internationally this week, scoring 147.64 and placing 7th at Cup of China. Gold and Nagasu compete next week at NHK Trophy in a deep field that also includes Asada, Suzuki, Radionova and Miyahara.

    2013-14 U.S. Ladies

    Top International Scores (through 10/27/13)
    1. Ashley WAGNER, Skate America (193.81)
    2. Gracie GOLD, Skate Canada (186.65)
    3. Karen CHEN, JGP Slovakia (179.08)
    4. Christina GAO, Skate Canada (173.69)
    5. Courtney HICKS, U.S. Classic (171.88)
    6. Polina EDMUNDS, JGP Mexico (171.21)

    7. Samantha CESARIO, Skate America (167.98)
    8. Mirai NAGASU, Finlandia Trophy (164.51)
    9. Amber GLENN, JGP Czech Republic (164.18)
    10. Ashley CAIN, Nebelhorn Trophy (162.39)
    11. Angela WANG, JGP Czech Republic (155.87)
    12. Mariah BELL, JGP Mexico (153.17)

    13. Vanessa LAM, Finlandia Trophy (152.28)
    14. Agnes ZAWADZKI, U.S. Classic (151.27)
    15. Kiri BAGA, Coupe de Nice (150.48)
    16. Barbie LONG, JGP Slovakia (148.19)
    17. Tyler PIERCE, JGP Estonia (143.91)
    18. Yasmin SIRAJ, JGP Latvia (142.32)

    19. Rachael FLATT, Coupe de Nice (130.18)
    20. Hannah MILLER, JGP Estonia (128.20)
    21. Caroline ZHANG, Skate America (110.12)

    Upcoming events:
    • NHK Trophy: GOLD, NAGASU
    • Trophee Bompard: CESARIO, GAO, WAGNER
    • Ice Challenge: HICKS
    • Rostelecom Cup: NAGASU, ZAWADZKI
    • JGP Final: CHEN, EDMUNDS
    • GP Final: TBD

  12. #732

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blondie12 View Post
    It will definitely not happen with Mao, but Carolina is another story, she did not look great at Cup of China and the choreography of that program is horrible. Of course, Mirai is not at her 2010 level and likely will not return to that level. But if she was, she would be better than what Carolina put forth today

    I am not sure if Carolina is injured or if something else is the matter or if the season is just starting off slow for her. But she has to change things around if she will be a factor in Sochi, or sadly this will be just a repeat of Torino...and Vancouver and she will be remembered as the lady who always flaked during Olympic seasons. I hope the problem is physical rather than mental because there is a greater chance of that being fixed by Sochi time.
    And who exactly won at Cup of China? Was it the hyped talented kid, who if she would only skate clean would be a world beater? But said skater almost always makes mistakes?

    Or was it a less hyped but more consistent girl.

    At the end of the day you need to take into account who is likely to skate clean, and take advantage of top contender's mistakes. Reality is I think one could easily argue that both Asada (especially) Asada and even Kostner are beater competitors than Mirai.

    Look yes every once in awhile you can have Paul Wylie moment and someone will have the skate of their life at the Olympics. However, in most cases, people don't magically overcome their issues at the Olympics. I.e Bobek, Ando (06) Czisny (2009) all example of this.

    If you were to ask me who would win if both Gao and Mirai skated their best, of course I'd say Mao.
    But if you ask me who would perform better, I'd say Gao.
    Last edited by bek; 11-03-2013 at 05:05 AM.

  13. #733
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    Quote Originally Posted by bek View Post
    And who exactly won at Cup of China? Was it the hyped talented kid, who if she would only skate clean would be a world beater? But said skater almost always makes mistakes?

    Or was it a less hyped but more consistent girl.

    At the end of the day you need to take into account who is likely to skate clean, and take advantage of top contender's mistakes. Reality is I think one could easily argue that both Asada (especially) Asada and even Kostner are beater competitors than Mirai.

    Look yes every once in awhile you can have Paul Wylie moment and someone will have the skate of their life at the Olympics. However, in most cases, people don't magically overcome their issues at the Olympics. I.e Bobek, Ando (06) Czisny (2009) all example of this.

    If you were to ask me who would win if both Gao and Mirai skated their best, of course I'd say Mao.
    But if you ask me who would perform better, I'd say Gao.
    Cup of China was not won this year by the old timer, it was won by the younger Russian lady. Carolina got by despite her less than stellar performance by her PCS. If she skates like that in Sochi, she will be lucky to crack top 5, maybe not even that.

    No one doubts that Mao is a much much better competitor than Mirai. And Carolina has been as well - but only in recent years. People seem to have selective memory about Carolina - historically over her career, she has been extremely inconsistent. She finished 16th at the last Olympics and her world title came in a year when she had poor competition and a watered down program and her chief competitor Mao had just lost her mother I think. She finished 9th in Torino after having won bronze at worlds the year earlier. And she had some embarrassing performances, i forget which one, but i recall one competition where she missed practically all her jumps. I don't think any top skater has had more ups and downs than Carolina. Her season is not off to a good start, and one can only hope that it is just some technical issues rather than a repeat of the past.

    All I am saying is Carolina is far from consistent on the level of Mao or Yuna or even Ashley and comparing Mirai and Mao is different than Mirai and Carolina. Carolina bombed at the Olympics 2x. If she skates like that in Sochi, and falls multiple times during her programs, whoever is the second or maybe even third US lady (Mirai or otherwise) could potentially beat her if they were really on (which is far from assured, but we have not yet seen some of the US ladies like Mirai this season)... Just as they beat her - by large margins often- the last 2 Olympics. Of course, she will likely be held up with PCS (and deservatedy so, she is a great skater) but technical mistakes in Sochi or mental errors will likely cost her, which would be a shame. She needs to get her act together.

    People are all willing to forget about Carolina's past but they seem unwilling to forgive Mirai. Of course, I realize this is due to the fact that Mirai has not shown us she can overcome her past. But we have not seen her this season and I am willing to give her a chance to see if she can make the same kind of recovery Carolina did. Mirai is still young; everyone could have written Carolina off when she was 20 years old too. Mirai could potentially make the same kind of recovery Carolina did - either now or for 2018 when she still would be younger than Carolina's current age. Mirai could be like Carolina and blossom in her 20s. We forget how young she is.

  14. #734
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    Carolina has a world title and multiple Euro titles. Mirai has one US National title, 4CC bronze and a couple of Grand Prix medals, bronze and silver. Just sayin'
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  15. #735
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    Quote Originally Posted by IceAlisa View Post
    Carolina has a world title and multiple Euro titles. Mirai has one US National title, 4CC bronze and a couple of Grand Prix medals, bronze and silver. Just sayin'
    And Carolina is also 6 years older than Mirai, with much of her accomplishments coming in recent years mostly the last 3 seasons (except for some good results in 2005 and 2008 followed by large drops in ranking the next year) In her early years (and up until recently), since there were few great Russian skaters, competition at Euros was not that intense. Carolina has also enjoyed competing for a country where she has no competition so she had the opportunity to go to pretty much every international event. I don't think you can compare the two. Carolina is no doubt more accomplished but that is not the point. Everyone could have written off Carolina after she bombed horribly in Vancouver when she was 22 years old too, but instead she turned herself around and lived up to her potential. One can only hope she does not backslide this season. Mirai never lived up to her potential but at only 20 years old, she still could if she really wanted to and she could be like Carolina.

  16. #736

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blondie12 View Post
    Cup of China was not won this year by the old timer, it was won by the younger Russian lady. Carolina got by despite her less than stellar performance by her PCS. If she skates like that in Sochi, she will be lucky to crack top 5, maybe not even that.

    No one doubts that Mao is a much much better competitor than Mirai. And Carolina has been as well - but only in recent years. People seem to have selective memory about Carolina - historically over her career, she has been extremely inconsistent. She finished 16th at the last Olympics and her world title came in a year when she had poor competition and a watered down program and her chief competitor Mao had just lost her mother I think. She finished 9th in Torino after having won bronze at worlds the year earlier. And she had some embarrassing performances, i forget which one, but i recall one competition where she missed practically all her jumps. I don't think any top skater has had more ups and downs than Carolina. Her season is not off to a good start, and one can only hope that it is just some technical issues rather than a repeat of the past.

    All I am saying is Carolina is far from consistent on the level of Mao or Yuna or even Ashley and comparing Mirai and Mao is different than Mirai and Carolina. Carolina bombed at the Olympics 2x. If she skates like that in Sochi, and falls multiple times during her programs, whoever is the second or maybe even third US lady (Mirai or otherwise) could potentially beat her if they were really on (which is far from assured, but we have not yet seen some of the US ladies like Mirai this season)... Just as they beat her - by large margins often- the last 2 Olympics. Of course, she will likely be held up with PCS (and deservatedy so, she is a great skater) but technical mistakes in Sochi or mental errors will likely cost her, which would be a shame. She needs to get her act together.

    People are all willing to forget about Carolina's past but they seem unwilling to forgive Mirai. Of course, I realize this is due to the fact that Mirai has not shown us she can overcome her past. But we have not seen her this season and I am willing to give her a chance to see if she can make the same kind of recovery Carolina did. Mirai is still young; everyone could have written Carolina off when she was 20 years old too. Mirai could potentially make the same kind of recovery Carolina did - either now or for 2018 when she still would be younger than Carolina's current age. Mirai could be like Carolina and blossom in her 20s. We forget how young she is.
    Yes Cup of China was won by a young a kid. But you were missing my point. There were two Russian girls there, and the girl who took second is much more hyped than the girl who won. On paper, Adelina is considered more talented and if both her and Anna were clean, Adelina would win.

    However it was Anna do to her consistency that took advantage of Kostner's mistakes more than Adelina (although both beat her). I'm trying to say you need consistent girls to capitalize on others mistakes.

    Kostner has about five world medals. Her issue too has been always inconsistency. Yes she has an easier road than Nagasu. However, Kostner still earned those medals, and I never got that Kostner's issues were work ethic issues.

    I get that Nagasu's issues are work ethic issues. If Nagasu were to get her act together and live up to her talent, she would get some consideration. But she'd have to demonstrate her act is together and time's running out there.

    And I want to point out that we have seen Mirai this season. She was in Finland with Julia, Akiko, and Elizaveta. All three girls beat her.ee The biggest issue I had with Mirai is she seemed to skate her long with no feeling and expression. And this isn't a girl whose not capable of skating with expression. Oh and Nagasu still got underrotations.

    Once again yes Kostner is inconsistent. But Nagasu herself hasn't displayed any kind of consistency-accept I guess that you can count on her to get a bunch of underrotations. I don't blame her federation for being skeptical.

  17. #737

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    Quote Originally Posted by orbitz View Post
    Mirai won the SP at Worlds in 2010
    Yes, this is the performance that Nagasu fans remember vividly and with nostalgia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sa2R_HqZnz4
    Obviously she is not the same skater today, but it doesn't take away how much I enjoy re-watching this performance.
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  18. #738
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    I agree with those essentially saying not to write Nagasu off (see Sylvia, I'm not all bad ). Here's the thing: the issue I have with comparing her to Kostner, among other things, is the AGE DIFFERENCE. Perhaps past 2018 (if Nagasu hasn't retired yet) we can do so. But we don't know if she simply peaked young (think Meissner, Big Hughes) or whether she's more of a Czisny. And remember Wagner floundered for a few seasons before she turned things around.

    Can Nagasu fix her issues in a couple of months? Unlikely (but remember - she did it in 2009). Is she done yet? Too early to say (unless she retires).

    I think US fans in general (and I include myself here FYI) are used to instant results from young talented skaters and are super-quick to write them off/get frustrated with them if they don't immediately deliver in the first 1-2 seasons as a senior. Look at Gold now for instance. I think the times have changed significantly in the past decade and this is something we will see less of, I think.

  19. #739

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    Quote Originally Posted by RD View Post
    I agree with those essentially saying not to write Nagasu off (see Sylvia, I'm not all bad ). Here's the thing: the issue I have with comparing her to Kostner, among other things, is the AGE DIFFERENCE. Perhaps past 2018 (if Nagasu hasn't retired yet) we can do so. But we don't know if she simply peaked young (think Meissner, Big Hughes) or whether she's more of a Czisny. And remember Wagner floundered for a few seasons before she turned things around.

    Can Nagasu fix her issues in a couple of months? Unlikely (but remember - she did it in 2009). Is she done yet? Too early to say (unless she retires).

    I think US fans in general (and I include myself here FYI) are used to instant results from young talented skaters and are super-quick to write them off/get frustrated with them if they don't immediately deliver in the first 1-2 seasons as a senior. Look at Gold now for instance. I think the times have changed significantly in the past decade and this is something we will see less of, I think.
    At this point its not about instant results anymore. Here's my issue it would be one thing if Mirai's issues were mental. Oh she has trouble competiting. But a lot of Mirai's issue are technical, and also due to motivation issues.

    Frank mentioned it was hard to motivate Mirai after the 2010 season, and I find that statement telling for so many reasons. You see the difference between fully trained Mirai and not so trained Mirai.

    There are times lately when Nagasu gets on the ice and its like she's not even trying to perform for the audience.

    These things above are why I think a lot of people are frustrated with Mirai.

    I mean Ashley had some underrotation issues too at one point, but Wagner went out there worked hard and constantly improved. Its the main difference between her and Nagasu.

    I think the issue is actually maybe Nagasu had to much success at a young age, and she took at as a cue to not work as hard as she needed too.

    So the question is if Mirai got her act together for a few months sure she might make the Olympic team... BUT she's not likely to medal and would she use the experience for further improvement, well she didn't last time...

    In contrast you can take someone like Edmunds get them some experience and exposure and they might learn from it. Even the same for Gao.

  20. #740
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    Quote Originally Posted by RD View Post
    I agree with those essentially saying not to write Nagasu off (see Sylvia, I'm not all bad ). Here's the thing: the issue I have with comparing her to Kostner, among other things, is the AGE DIFFERENCE. Perhaps past 2018 (if Nagasu hasn't retired yet) we can do so. But we don't know if she simply peaked young (think Meissner, Big Hughes) or whether she's more of a Czisny. And remember Wagner floundered for a few seasons before she turned things around.

    Can Nagasu fix her issues in a couple of months? Unlikely (but remember - she did it in 2009). Is she done yet? Too early to say (unless she retires).

    I think US fans in general (and I include myself here FYI) are used to instant results from young talented skaters and are super-quick to write them off/get frustrated with them if they don't immediately deliver in the first 1-2 seasons as a senior. Look at Gold now for instance. I think the times have changed significantly in the past decade and this is something we will see less of, I think.
    I'm repeating this ad nauseam but I feel everyone needs to get the point - Last year, Mirai was still UR'ing badly at CoC but she had turned it around (mostly) by NHK, the final GP of the season and even fully rotated the 3-3 in the SP. Her Nationals SP was stellar where she fully rotated the 3-3 again and frankly was a victim of the USFSA's love affair w/ Agnes. She fell apart in the LP but, as I found out after the fact, that probably had to do w/ being ill.

    Let's Monday Morning Quarterback on Monday Morning, the day after Nationals

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