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  1. #621

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    Quote Originally Posted by AxelAnnie View Post
    I agree that, save Ashley, no one is a lock for Sochi. There isn't a single US Lady that can lay down two successful programs. Perhaps Guo, but she doesn't score as well as she might.

    I think Gracie is in trouble. She has skated how many competitions at the senior level? And, at how many of those has she skated two good performances? When she does land her jumps her scores are huge, but she doesn't have the spell-binding skating that Alissa or Sasha have or the musicality of someone like Akiko, or the skill of Kostner. So, when she doesn't land the jumps, she is not going to pull off a win.

    And, I think she has only 2 comps 'til Nats? One more GP, and the GPF? I don't think she has time to prove her reliability. Not looking so great for anyone after Ashley. IMO. USFSA has a tough decision to make.
    I don't think the USFSA cares as long as she is on the podium (SLC, SC) or places well enough to be useful (worlds.) This is actually Gracie's strength. She can have a subpar skate for one program and still end up placing well. Do any of the other contenders mentioned in this thread place and score as well as Gracie when they have a subpar skate? Mirai, Agnes, Christina, etc will all plummet in the standings with a subpar program and none of them have, IMHO, demonstrated the ability to rocket back up in the standing the way Gracie has.

    As for the examples of the men's competitions at Nationals, I don't remember the details of Mroz beating Evan, but Abbot being left behind was never a shock. Again, unlike Gracie, I don't believe he has demonstrated internationally the ability to rebound from a bad skate the way Gracie has.

    Like her or not, international judges are willing to reward Gracie when she skates well, and they don't seem to hold a grudge when she doesn't. I agree with IA, the chances of Gracie not making the team are similar to those of an asteroid hitting the earth.
    A good rant is cathartic. Ranting is what keeps me sane. They always come from a different place. Take the prime minister, for example. Sometimes when I rant about him, I am angry; other times, I am just severely annoyed - it's an important distinction. - Rick Mercer

  2. #622

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    Quote Originally Posted by mag View Post
    ...As for the examples of the men's competitions at Nationals, I don't remember the details of Mroz beating Evan...
    It was very close - Mroz ended up only 0.6 ahead of Lysacek in 2009. Lysacek was 8.71 ahead after the short, but Mroz came out 9.31 ahead after the long.

    Back to the ladies, barring injuries/freak meltdowns, I expect the Sochi team will be Wagner, Gold, and someone other than Czisny, Nagasu, or Flatt. My personal choice would be Gao but we'll see if she can break the 5th at Nats curse.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  3. #623
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    For those who don't think Wagner is a lock, I will remind them of the judging at 2012 and 2013 nationals. In the 2012 FS, Wagner skated very well, with few mistakes and received a 60 TES and 63 PCS score, 123.96 total for the FS. In the FS for 2013, Wagner had two falls and skated slow and defensively in the last half of the program. One would think with the mistakes and the interruption in the program, her PCS would be the same or lower than in 2012. Well that thinking would be wrong. Her PCS magically rose, making up in part for the deductions and negative GOE for the falls. Her 2013 scores were 57 TES and 65 PCS, 121.27 total FS score. And if I remember correctly, many thought there was a UR on one of Wagner's falls, which was not called. So even if Wagner has a substandard skate at Nationals, the score for Wagner will not necessarily reflect this.

  4. #624
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    Wagner and Gold are both locks. Based on their SP scores from their first international the judges at U.S Nationals now will be easily justified given expected Nationals inflation (especialy for the frontrunners) to score them both above 70 should they do clean shorts at Nationals. This will give them a huge cushion (everyone else will be kept at 64 or lower, even if Agnes had potential to outpoint that the last 2 years, she wont this year IMO) and combined with their PCS, will ensure them the top 2 places even with a rather poor effort from either in the long, and a string of inspired performances from the chasers. Even if worst came to worst and both made mistakes over both programs, the judges would still find a way to give them GOE and PCS that at most only 1 skater would beat them (especialy given that the others are all inconsistent and will all likely make mistakes, except maybe Gao who they have found it easy to bury even without mistakes in years past).

    I think the USFSA has probably already mailed them their plane tickets to Sochi, and just told them to keep it quiet. Like a reality TV show.

    The ladies are all bidding for 1 spot to Sochi. 2 are already taken, and not up for consideration.

  5. #625
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    wrong thread...
    Dá-lhe, Isadora!!
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  6. #626

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    ^ Were they trying to make her look like Julianne Hough in the photo on the right?
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  7. #627

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    Nomad, beepbeep has moved the original post to GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=1#post4034668

    Both Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold have received CoverGirl sponsorships through Procter & Gamble. Gold also was announced today as one of the Olympic hopefuls sponsored by Smucker.
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  8. #628
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    What are all these companies thinking? It's clear as day that NO ONE is a lock for the Olympic team. No one! And yet these crazy companies are putting their on Ashley and Gracie! Shocking lack of foresight.

    [/sarcasm]
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  9. #629
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    No one is a lock. Rockne Brubaker should know. Yes, they are positioned well but being on the cover a coke can or make up ad is not going to put them on the Olympic team. They will have to skate decent programs.

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    I would love to see GAO on the team. Her programs are so beautiful. She skates so light and makes it look effortless. But Cesario has really impressed me this year with her programs. I would not mine her on the team. There just aren't enough spots to go around. Why can't we send four girls.
    I'm not going to get too excited about Mirai with her jump issues or Agnes, who you could not pay to land a jump.

  11. #631

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    ^^^ totally agree.
    DH - and that's just my opinion

  12. #632
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    Among the girls competing for the third spot, I ... actually don't care which one will get it, now that I've seen all of their programs at least once. Each has substantial flaws and strengths to argue either way. So I guess it'll be whoever lands the most jumps fully rotated in Boston.

  13. #633
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Watching Gracie's SP again the music isn't as bad as i thought. She does look more mature this season and isn't looking like a Junior skater anymore.
    Marina Zoueva used this music before with Ekaterina Gordeeva. I watched both programs, and actually I think the music suits Gracie well: dynamic, excitable, also artistic.

    I'm hoping hoping that Christina Gao makes it to the Olympics this year. I feel like when she's tired or uncertain, her posture goes away. But if she can polish up those programs and feel good out there... she's actually my favorite US lady right now (besides Alissa... oh, fingers crossed for her).

  14. #634
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    Whoops. Here's the link with Gordeeva skating to Three Preludes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuaWKdZit20

  15. #635
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    Quote Originally Posted by IceAlisa View Post
    What are all these companies thinking? It's clear as day that NO ONE is a lock for the Olympic team. No one! And yet these crazy companies are putting their on Ashley and Gracie! Shocking lack of foresight.

    [/sarcasm]
    They aren't crazy or stupid; it's a calculated business decision and actually shows quite a bit of foresight. They are gambling that that Ashley and Gracie will make the Olympic Team (not a bad bet if you're into playing the odds) and they want to get them locked up with some sort of contract before a competitor does. And the sponsorship/contract price is likely lower now for a prospect than for a skater that's officially made the Team, which in turn is lower than an Olympic medalist. The idea is to get somebody on the way up and ride the wave rather than grab somebody already at the top. Sometimes companies get it right, and sometimes wrong--comes with the territory.

    The fact that Ashley and Gracie have the sort of healthy girl-next-door looks that fits well with the Cover Girl target demographic was also a factor in their selection, I'm sure.

  16. #636
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    ^^ I was being sarcastic, as indicated. I think the chances of these two making it to Sochi are excellent and the companies seem to agree.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  17. #637
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    Quote Originally Posted by IceAlisa View Post
    I think the chances of these two making it to Sochi are excellent and the companies seem to agree.
    Doesn't hurt that both are beautiful girls.

  18. #638
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    Doesn't hurt that both are beautiful girls.
    Just ask Cover Girl. They are both lovely.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  19. #639
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    Quote Originally Posted by IceAlisa View Post
    Just ask Cover Girl. They are both lovely.
    Well Wagner, Gold and Czisny would make a good trio if a cosmetics company is to be the biggest sponsor. if Czisny is not ready, Cesario can help too.

  20. #640
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarrett View Post
    No one is a lock. Rockne Brubaker should know. Yes, they are positioned well but being on the cover a coke can or make up ad is not going to put them on the Olympic team. They will have to skate decent programs.
    Rockne isn't the only athlete to have major sponsorships without making the Olympic team. Still, I'm glad companies reach out to these athletes; they could just do generic Olympic marketing instead of that- but this way, athletes benefit.

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