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  1. #421

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    I don't see the << on Mirai's second flip. Yes, she landed it two-footed and it was kind of UR, but a -3 from one judge and -2 from the rest? Seems pretty harsh to me.
    BARK LESS. WAG MORE.

  2. #422
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    ^ Two footed jumps (especially when very apparent) are an automatic -2 for GOE.

  3. #423

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    Ohhhh, okay!!! Thanks for the clarification. Hoping she can get the jumps cleaned up. . . but, um, we've all been saying that for a few years now
    BARK LESS. WAG MORE.

  4. #424
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    Quote Originally Posted by RD View Post
    See, here's my list:

    Wagner
    Gold
    (your top 2 contenders)


    Zawadzki
    Gao
    (your 2 secondary contenders)


    Hicks
    Nagasu*
    (the 2 that could surprise)


    THAT'S IT. Everyone else - either past peak or not ready (not at top contender level).

    *Even Nagasu is sort of straddling that "MIGHT be/MIGHT not be" line depending on whether she can ditch those URs or not...if she can't, she doesn't have any more of a prayer than the rest.
    I'm not even sure we could say at this point that Agnes or Christina are really the secondary contenders based on what we've seen so far this early in the season. Christina is coming off of an injury and doesn't look that great, while Agnes is still a mess as she always was (I still don't understand why she's been 3rd place at Nationals for the last, what, three seasons?)

  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarts1 View Post
    I'm not even sure we could say at this point that Agnes or Christina are really the secondary contenders based on what we've seen so far this early in the season. Christina is coming off of an injury and doesn't look that great, while Agnes is still a mess as she always was (I still don't understand why she's been 3rd place at Nationals for the last, what, three seasons?)
    I agree with you on this. I don't think Zawadzki and Gao are any more likely than Hicks and Nagasu. (I DO think it will be one of those four.)

  6. #426

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    I think besides the favorites (Wagner, Gold), and main contenders (Zawadski, Hicks, Gao) , the two that could surprise are

    Edmunds
    Wang

    Edmunds can challenge if she continues to make a strong case as she has so far this season, she and Hicks are 'building the campaign' , as Paul Wylie would say. Wang has got to be one the highest quality skaters all around, fabulous skating skills, difficult and quality jumps, and superb mature presentation, but she's a headcase.

    Not sure where Nagasu fits in here. I love her skating, but she hasn't scored well in a while, so much depends on who is doing the calling.

  7. #427
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    sad Caroline Zhang hasn't been mentioned and has gone with the wind

  8. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    Wang has got to be one the highest quality skaters all around, fabulous skating skills, difficult and quality jumps, and superb mature presentation, but she's a headcase.
    I actually think it's too early to call Wang a headcase. I think she was off the ice (rumor is she was injured) and is under-trained (hence her re-assignment from an early JGP) and isn't ready to compete yet. I think (hope?) when she's had a chance to adequately train it, the errors in her long program will start to clear up.

  9. #429
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    No one but Ashley seems like a good bet to make the Olympic team at this time. All the others are inconsistent or headcases.

  10. #430

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    Sad, but true I fear.
    DH - and that's just my opinion

  11. #431
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    I think once Gracie gets settled w/ FC, things will fall into place as far as her skating is concerned. The GP series will be telling.

  12. #432
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Cain in no way has a better chance than Edmunds or Czisny. IMO there are 5 groups:

    1.) Locks/Near Locks

    Wagner
    Gold

    2.) Main contenders for the 3rd Spot

    Zawadzki
    Gao
    Hicks

    3.) Secondary contenders for the 3rd spot

    Nagasu
    Cesario


    4.) Dark Horses for the 3rd spot

    Czisny
    Edmunds

    5.) Highly unlikely to make the Olympic team but could be given consideration if the stars align perfectly at Nationals

    Wang
    Miller
    Zhang
    Lam
    Flatt
    Cain

    I agree with all that. Although the way things are going now i wouldnt be surprised if Gold drops into the main contenders for the 2nd and 3rd spot group, and Gao drops to the secondary contenders for the 2nd and 3rd spot group.

    I really think if the Olympic team was picked tommorow Hicks would be on it.

  13. #433

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    Quote Originally Posted by toddlj View Post
    I agree with you on this. I don't think Zawadzki and Gao are any more likely than Hicks and Nagasu. (I DO think it will be one of those four.)
    I'm with you, while I hope Gao shows good performances at Nats, thinking of her mom. I also hope Mirai makes a Olympic team, thinking of her mom. Oh my...US needs four spots.
    "You'll find that life is still worthwhile. If you'll just Smile."  --by john turner and geoffrey parsons

  14. #434
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    Quote Originally Posted by love_skate2011 View Post
    sad Caroline Zhang hasn't been mentioned and has gone with the wind
    Well she hasn't skated well the last season and no one really knows how she's training, so at this point, she isn't really contending although things could change. Does anyone know how Caroline is doing?

  15. #435

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    Mirai improved a tremendous amount between Glacier Falls and Finlandia (where she got hosed on some her jumps, IMO). If she keeps on this same path, and keeps her head together, she can be proud of herself no matter if she makes it to Sochi or not. Side note: her choreographic sequence is amazing.

    I think the only real "lock" for Sochi right now is Ashley. Gracie is the next closest thing, but who knows what's going on in her head. I wouldn't be surprised to see Courtney place top 2 at Nationals, actually.

    Still three months until Nationals, but I think the top five are Wagner/Gold/Hicks/Nagasu/Gao (5th again!). With Cain and/or Cesario possibly nabbing 5th, too.

  16. #436
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    I love Cain, but the rotation on her harder triples is a question mark.
    I still think Wang has a shot at top 5 because great short programs tend to keep skaters there.

    ETA: Cesario's short program may keep her down. She won't have enough difficulty to place high without 3r/3r but judges seldom ratify 3r/3r. She may have better luck getting level 4 everything

    ETA: Edmunds may surprise
    Last edited by jlai; 10-08-2013 at 05:14 AM.

  17. #437
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    Copied & pasted my reply from over in the K&C as regards Mira and her Finlandia FSi:


    Even with the one obviously UR jump (don't know if there were more? but only looked like 1 to me) I would have placed Mirai Nagasu first. Just because she had the most well-rounded choreographed program with no obvious mistakes. She truly has it all, though I've noticed her natural spark that she had when she was younger is gone, with only a glimpse of it at the end. And her triple jumps look bigger imho. Love her costume, choreography, jumps, spins, steps, et al, she just needs to really sell it and feel the music!

  18. #438
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    ^Would love to see a team of Ashley, Gracie and Mirai.

    Chipso, agree that Mirai was hosed at Finlandia. I don't know what the judges were looking at on her 1st 3flip in the SP. But, for all of Mirai's flaws, she's doing better right now than Zawadzki and Gao. Hicks may be too 'green' for the team in the eyes of the judges at Nationals. We'll see ...

  19. #439
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    Quote Originally Posted by chipso1 View Post
    Mirai improved a tremendous amount between Glacier Falls and Finlandia (where she got hosed on some her jumps, IMO). If she keeps on this same path, and keeps her head together, she can be proud of herself no matter if she makes it to Sochi or not. Side note: her choreographic sequence is amazing.

    I think the only real "lock" for Sochi right now is Ashley. Gracie is the next closest thing, but who knows what's going on in her head. I wouldn't be surprised to see Courtney place top 2 at Nationals, actually.

    Still three months until Nationals, but I think the top five are Wagner/Gold/Hicks/Nagasu/Gao (5th again!). With Cain and/or Cesario possibly nabbing 5th, too.
    Cain is definitely NOT in hunt for a top 5 finish at Nationals. She has some nice qualities to her skating (her SS are amazing), but her lutz and flip technique is really awful and without much rep power, she won't be anywhere near the top 5. Top 10 would be much for reasonable for her (if that even).

  20. #440

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    Quote Originally Posted by smarts1 View Post
    Cain is definitely NOT in hunt for a top 5 finish at Nationals. She has some nice qualities to her skating (her SS are amazing), but her lutz and flip technique is really awful and without much rep power, she won't be anywhere near the top 5. Top 10 would be much for reasonable for her (if that even).
    If she skates two clean programs, it's definitely possible. Her scores at Nebelhorn were quite good for flawed programs early in the season.

    jlai, I think Edmunds could surprise as well, but it's hard to know how she'll handle the pressure of her first senior Nationals also being the Olympic trials. That, and the U.S. judges don't show her much love (her junior FS last season being a prime example. ).

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