View Poll Results: Clean Asada with current jumps at Olympics vs clean Kim and Kostner

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  • clean Mao wins gold over clean Kim and Kostner

    9 26.47%
  • clean Mao wins silver behind Kim but beating clean Kostner

    15 44.12%
  • clean Mao wins only bronze behind clean Kim and Kostner

    10 29.41%
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  1. #1
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    Clean Asada with current jumps at Olympics vs clean Kim and Kostner.

    It seems the other thread sparked quite a debate how a clean Asada with her current huge difficulty would be scored against a clean Kostner or Kim. Where do you think a clean Asada with her current jumps planned would be placed vs a clean Kim and Kostner.

  2. #2

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    I think Kostner and Kim both out-skate Asada, all else being equal.
    DH - and that's just my opinion

  3. #3
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    Oh good lord, not again!

    This conversation went on for 28 pages on GSU: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...m-all-go-clean

    My thoughts:

    Mao: Highest TES in both segments, improved GOE (clean jumps equals no -GOE which means she retains all of her base value and even earns points), higher PCS (clean skating equals PCS hike). It wouldn't be a blow out but she would come out on top.

    Yu-Na: We have a good idea of what Yu-Na would score in the SP if she skated cleanly (71 or 72) and I'd say we've seen her max out her FS score as well (148 or 149). I think she'd hold the edge on PCS over Mao but Mao's higher TES would do her in.

    Carolina: I do think it would be close and come down to a few points. I think Carolina is as good as if not better than Yu-Na in PCS and if she were to skate clean, her PCS would jump as well. However, Carolina wouldn't be able to match Yu-Na's TES in the SP or the FS and she'd fall short.
    Last edited by kwanatic; 08-01-2013 at 09:44 PM.

  4. #4
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    I doubt a clean short next year by Kim would be only 71 or 72 points. It will probably be atleast 75. When one looks at her short program score from Worlds there are atleast 3 areas she can greatly improve it. Her usual spectacular triple flip with high GOE vs the questionable edge call from Worlds last year. The flying camel which was weak and only got a level 1 IIRC. PCS much higher for a better program with more energy than her lackluster (but technically mostly sound) Worlds SP, and plus alot more momentum and rep power than she had at Worlds last year. Those three things alone would easily take her to 75 points or more.

    I debated in my mind of 2nd ahead of Kostner or 3rd behind Kostner, but eventually settled on 3rd behind Kostner since the judges love Kostner and like her alot more than Mao at this point I believe.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabybackhand
    The flying camel which was weak and only got a level 1 IIRC.
    Aren't you thinking of NRW Throphy maybe? Yuna got Lv3 at worlds with +GOE.
    It's true though, that her 3F would score better (about max. +2 points there) and that her PCS would rise again, although the judges usually hand out lower PCS in the SP than the FS, why ever that is. In the FS, Yuna got 73+, 50% of that is 36+, and that would already be very high for a SP. However, taking that into account, I guess she'd really end up somehwere around 75, maybe a little higher. So nearly tied with Mao at her best.

    If this poll really ends up with the most votes going to 'clean Mao wins bronze' (as it looks now), I'll feel like

  6. #6
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    Reposting from Top 12 clean at worlds thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by Gabybackhand View Post
    Also the total score you posted is taking Mao's best elements across various competitions, which she probably wouldnt match all at once even in a clean skate, and the most generous possible PCS, and her FS is STILL lower than Kim's LP at Worlds. That alone just proves the point it is unlikely for her to beat a clean Kim even if the impossible miracle she skated her current LP cleanly took place. Most agree Kim can easily score around 75 in the short program, even if she didnt this year, and even if probably not the 78 she got in Vancouver as well, so counting on a significant SP lead for Mao to give her the title would probably not come to pass either. Yes scores at Olympics tend to be higher, but that applies for Kim as well as Mao.

    Also I dont assume Mao not flutzing in a clean skate since she is incapable of doing a proper lutz. This has been proven over many years. -GOE is a guarantee for her on that jump even if she does it what is clean for her.
    You citing 2010 as a reference is a moot point. You can't take results from nearly 4 years ago and apply them to now as a generalization b/c scoring trends have changed. In 2010 Carolina's PCS were about 57...flash forward nearly 4 years and her PCS for worlds this year was 70. Has Carolina really improved her skating by that much? It's all relative to the time so you can't say oh Mao only scored blah blah with 2 mistakes almost 4 years ago so why would you think she can compete with Yu-Na now?

    Yes, that score I referenced took the best elements across several performances. Seeing as this is a hypothetical situation and there is not one competition where Mao executed all of these elements perfectly, the logical thing to do is to take actual scores from well-executed elements (so you can't say someone is just randomly pulling a number from somewhere) and compile them into one hypothetically perfect program. Her most generous PCS came from one perfect SP (4CC) and the best FS she was able to execute this season (worlds). Again, these are actual scores that were given to her with minimal inflation (ForeverFish only bumped Mao's PCS total from 68 to 69 though I think with a perfect program she'd receive closer to 70).

    Those are the numbers...actual numbers pulled from competitions that compose a hypothetical score. But since you seem to think it's impossible, I encourage you to prove me wrong.

  7. #7
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    and I will just repost what I just pointed in response in the other thread:

    You already proved yourself wrong. I dont need to do anything, you did it all for me. Even bringing the best scores Mao could compile at various elements across any competition, and giving her a 0 GOE on a triple lutz which she isnt even capable of since she is only capable of a flutz, and giving her higher PCS than many would estimate the judges to give her, her LP score was lower than Kim's at Worlds (you came up with 147 and change which was lower than Kim at Worlds as you know, albeit slightly). Realistically even with a clean skate someone doesnt match their very best GOE (not just clean but their best quality amongst various clean ones) done at any competition on every single element either, so realistically the score would be lower than that too; unless we pick any element from Kim's Worlds LP that she ever scored higher on and boost her score over 150 by the same standard. As for any SP lead for Mao well I agree with the above poster that both would be around 75 so probably no real difference either way there.

    Anyway I wont comment further as it is only my opinion and others can have their opinions and votes in this thread. I have already given my views.

  8. #8

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    A clean Mao could beat a clean Kostner. A clean Mao vs a clean Kim would come down to TES Base, GOEs, and a desire by the ISU to fuel the rivalry ... that would ultimately be good for skating

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabybackhand View Post
    and I will just repost what I just pointed in response in the other thread:

    You already proved yourself wrong. I dont need to do anything, you did it all for me. Even bringing the best scores Mao could compile at various elements across any competition, and giving her a 0 GOE on a triple lutz which she isnt even capable of since she is only capable of a flutz, and giving her higher PCS than many would estimate the judges to give her, her LP score was lower than Kim's at Worlds (you came up with 147 and change which was lower than Kim at Worlds as you know, albeit slightly). Realistically even with a clean skate someone doesnt match their very best GOE (not just clean but their best quality amongst various clean ones) done at any competition on every single element either, so realistically the score would be lower than that too; unless we pick any element from Kim's Worlds LP that she ever scored higher on and boost her score over 150 by the same standard. As for any SP lead for Mao well I agree with the above poster that both would be around 75 so probably no real difference either way there.

    Anyway I wont comment further as it is only my opinion and others can have their opinions and votes in this thread. I have already given my views.


    I suppose that's fair, granted I don't think your "cause I said so" method of defending/explaining your reasoning is a good one. Hopefully someone who shares your opinion will do a better job of corroborating it than you did.

  10. #10
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    Mao's speed and jumps just aren't in the same class as Yuna's. That was obvious at the Olympics when Mao skated clean in the SP but still paled compared to Yuna.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Mao's speed and jumps just aren't in the same class as Yuna's. That was obvious at the Olympics when Mao skated clean in the SP but still paled compared to Yuna.
    It was controversial how Mao's combo was not as valuable as Yuna's combo. Even though Mao was doing a triple axel/double toe to the lutz toe Yuna did because even though Mao was doing a triple axel what mattered much more she was doing the nothing meaningless double toe. Now Mao can do 3/3 and 3A and so I would really like to see if that was accomplished where Yuna would be!! Maybe she'd be up a creek without a paddle!!!

  12. #12
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    I'll try to cut to the chase, as I only want to do this once:

    -Yuna left some points on the table in the 2013 WC SP, and I would say she scores around 75-77 if she goes "clean" with the execution she's capable of on everything (that is to say, "hypothetically" ). This includes the points lost on her 3F (which is something like 2-3 points including GOEs), the points lost on a couple of Level 3 spins, and the fractions of points she would regain here, there and everywhere (as the Beatles would say), in once again being not just the reigning, but the dominant, World and Olympic champeen (as Bundini Brown, Ali's colorful cornerman, might say) skating among the group of favorites. Particularly in Yuna's PCS, which, let's face it, are never again going to be in the low 8s in a well-done Yuna program under the circumstances I described. That ship has sailed.

    What is the very rough-and-ready reality check on this SP scoring range? It is staring at us in the face: the fact that her LP scored around 148-149, which is just slightly below her Olympic and World Record of 150. Yuna's Olympic SP scored 78.5. By obvious analogy, it makes perfect sense that she would score, say, 76 points in the SP. (There is also the fact that the British Eurosport guys say they would have scored her London SP 10 points higher, but I realize not everyone shares my trust in their credibility ).

    Under the hypothetical scenario, I reckon Yuna scores around 225, and even the prospect of breaking her World Record is not completely out of the question if she is as perfect as she can be, again, "hypothetically".

    Some explanatory comments:

    -The chances of Yuna going clean or near-clean under her known layout? Pretty substantial, in my view. The chances of Mao following suit under her announced uber-aggressive layout (which yields the hypothetical 223 point total referenced by kwanatic)? Not very good, in my estimation. But let's leave that aside, since we are suspending disbelief for the purposes of hypotheticals.

    -Yuna's WC 2013 was nowhere near as well-executed as she could make it, contra some comments on this and other threads (at least, it wasn't scored as such).

    -While I personally believe, as per the above, that even in this hypothetical orgy of cleanliness (having every member of Pig-Pen's family claim to have taken a bath in the morning is more likely, in my view) Yuna would outscore Mao, it is, nevertheless, fairly close.

    -Let's therefore bend over backwards and consider a case that it is a close-run thing. Nevertheless, even under that scenario, I would observe that in almost all sports, the principle that generally operates is: ties go to the champion. Although anti-royalist revolutions are no longer much in vogue, in the olden days, people knew that you couldn't just shunt the monarch very gently aside; they had to be well and truly dispatched. This principle is explicit in some sports (e.g. boxing titles, or Ryder Cup golf matches), and merely implicit in others. I would argue that skating is of the latter type.

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