Like I said I find the cloest barometer is the 2010 Olympics since at that event Mao was clean except for 2 mistakes in her long program which is basically as close as you get for Mao anyway which makes this whole topic almost futile anyway. Even taking away those two mistakes and giving her some GOE and a very generous PCS she isnt even close to winning overall. Now I know there are some rule changes since then, and some think Kim even going clean isnt her 2010 level as a skater, and for a variety of reasons it could be much closer than 2010 if both go clean. However has so much changed in various ways that a clean Mao could beat a clean Kim now when in 2010 she wouldnt have been even close even going totally clean. What are the extreme changes since then which would produce a result that you wouldnt have even been close to getting in 2010 had both gone clean.
Also the total score you posted is taking Mao's best elements across various competitions, which she probably wouldnt match all at once even in a clean skate, and the most generous possible PCS, and her FS is STILL lower than Kim's LP at Worlds. That alone just proves the point it is unlikely for her to beat a clean Kim even if the impossible miracle she skated her current LP cleanly took place. Most agree Kim can easily score around 75 in the short program, even if she didnt this year, and even if probably not the 78 she got in Vancouver as well, so counting on a significant SP lead for Mao to give her the title would probably not come to pass either. Yes scores at Olympics tend to be higher, but that applies for Kim as well as Mao.
Also I dont assume Mao not flutzing in a clean skate since she is incapable of doing a proper lutz. This has been proven over many years. -GOE is a guarantee for her on that jump even if she does it what is clean for her.
You already proved yourself wrong. I dont need to do anything, you did it all for me. Even bringing the best scores Mao could compile at various elements across any competition, and giving her a 0 GOE on a triple lutz which she isnt even capable of since she is only capable of a flutz, and giving her higher PCS than many would estimate the judges to give her, her LP score was lower than Kim's at Worlds. Realistically even with a clean skate someone doesnt match their very best GOE (not just clean but their best quality amongst various clean ones) done at any competition on every single element either, so realistically the score would be lower than that too; unless we pick any element from Kim's Worlds LP that she ever scored higher on and boost her score over 150 by the same standard. So no further discussion is neccessary.
I know in vancouver, clean Asada would defeat by clean kim. but many things were so much changed.
At that time, Their bv was not big difference. kim was ahead 1 point in SP. Mao was 3 points ahead in FS. IIRC
In FS, Mao planned 6 triples, had not 3-3, had not 3Lutz and 3Sal. Now she has all kind of triples, and plans 8 triples, has 3-3 in FS. She can get more GOE on jumps than the past. by contrast, Kim can't do 2a -3t anymore because of 2a limits. Rule was so many changed. GOE factor, base value of jumps
base value difference is much more bigger than the past because Mao's jump layout was became more difficult, kim's was became less difficult, and rule has changed
Last edited by torren; 08-02-2013 at 03:59 PM.