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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vagabond
    It isn't that there are just a whole bunch of polls on "what if's," it's that they the overwhelming majority have been started by one person who, though he uses different aliases, has a personality and a writing style that come through every single time, no matter how much he tries to hide them.
    Oh, I'm sorry, I didn't pay any attention to something like that. I still lik ethis thread though...

    Quote Originally Posted by jugdejudy27
    The mens it seems pretty much a certainty if everyone skated cleanly Chan would be 1st, Kozuka 2nd, and Takahashi 3rd.
    Did you mean Hanyu?
    Anyway, I'm not really agreeing with this top 3. Chan was very far ahead of the field until this season, but others have really closed the gap and the jugdes are very ready to reward them. Clean Chan might still be unbeatable next season, but I wouldn't bet on it.
    It's tough to say but I'm not sure Hanyu would beat Takahashi. It's Hanyus GOE vs. Takahashis PCS. And Fernandez might beat them both on TES (well, not Hanyu in the SP). The 'everyone clean' event doesn't look like a certainty to me at all.

  2. #22
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    No one is beating Chan if he's clean but since he doesn't think he needs a real coach i don't see that happening especially with his jumps.

  3. #23
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    Patrick has no coach??? Didn't learn in last season?

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by lala View Post
    Patrick has no coach??? Didn't learn in last season?
    Well he still has that modern dance teacher as his main coach but haven't heard about him finally getting someone to work on his jumps. He probably thinks he can correct his problems all by himself. That is a recipe for disaster.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Well he still has that modern dance teacher as his main coach but haven't heard about him finally getting someone to work on his jumps. He probably thinks he can correct his problems all by himself. That is a recipe for disaster.
    I know about his modern dance teacher...I thought he already has a real coach to work on is jumps..

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by lala View Post
    I know about his modern dance teacher...I thought he already has a real coach to work on is jumps..
    Maybe he does. After last season it was obvious that Kathy Johnson has no clue about jumps.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Did you mean Hanyu?
    Anyway, I'm not really agreeing with this top 3. Chan was very far ahead of the field until this season, but others have really closed the gap and the jugdes are very ready to reward them. Clean Chan might still be unbeatable next season, but I wouldn't bet on it.
    It's tough to say but I'm not sure Hanyu would beat Takahashi. It's Hanyus GOE vs. Takahashis PCS. And Fernandez might beat them both on TES (well, not Hanyu in the SP). The 'everyone clean' event doesn't look like a certainty to me at all.
    Yes I meant Hanyu.

    The others have closed the gap on Chan enough that with his near certainty to make alot of mistakes he is in big trouble next season. I actually am picking him to finish 3rd or 4th at the Olympics. However this thread seems to be about all skaters going clean, and in that case Chan would still be certain to win. A clean Chan can score almost 100 in the short and about 190 probably in the long. Nobody can beat that.

    As Hanyu vs Takahashi, Takahashi's biggest problem is his base value is typically lower than people like Chan, Hanyu, and Fernandez too. He often doesnt have the smartest jump layouts or even reach level 4s in some of the other elements. That combined with the huge GOE of Hanyu means he would be so far behind in TES if both go clean he wouldnt make that up even with PCS. Just look at the events they were in together the last 2 years. All except the GP final indicate a clean Hanyu coming out ahead. 2012 Worlds LP Hanyu beating a clean Takahashi in the LP even with a fall. 2012/2013 Nationals and NHK scoring.

    As for Fernandez his biggest problem would be the short program. Even a clean short by him would probably be crushed by Chan or Hanyu especialy at their best. Just look at NHK where he skated cleanly with the exact same jumps as Hanyu and ended up about 9 points back, about 6 on GOE alone, and another 3 on PCS. Takahashi had a major error and still beat him in the SP. In the LP he might be competitive with some of the aforementioned if they all skated cleanly, but probably not in the short program.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by berthesghost View Post
    Who will be top 12 finishers if all skaters are required to skate an old Kwan program?
    Can we make that happen please? I know people are all up in arms when skate to Michelle music but I am not one of them. It would be like a tribute if they all had to do the same choreography.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    No one has seen Mao or Carolina skate perfect programs back-to-back so we don't really know what their score ceiling is. It's highly improbable that something like this will ever happen but it's not impossible. History tells us Yu-Na has a much greater shot at skating cleanly or mostly clean...history also tells us that Carolina and Mao are bound to make a few mistakes which is why Yu-Na is the favorite for gold and silver will go to whoever skates the cleanest out of Mao and Carolina.
    Mao also has had not many mostly clean or clean programs, But not as much as Carolina. not absolutely equal with Carolina
    I can not even remember when Carolina had clean lp in her whole career
    I agree that Mao has lower chance to have clean programs than kim, but she has higher chance to have clean programs or mostly clean than Carolina
    Last edited by torren; 07-31-2013 at 03:57 AM.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by torren View Post
    sorry kim also skated clean sp in NRW. she scored 72. and if she did not get edge call on triple flip in world championship, her score still would be 71~72. kim got the highest GOE on only 3-3, she got lower goe than carolina on all elements. and what i mean in "she is not the strongest skater in SP anymore when all go clean" is, let's see some examples. In WTT, adelina get < on 3t in sp and she scored 67 and got higher goe on all components than kim except for underrotated 3-3. suzuki had a clean sp without 3-3, she got 66. In 2012 nhk, Mao got 67 without 3-3, 3A. In 2012 GPF, Wagner got 66 without 3-3.
    compare point gap.. which elements kim is overwhelming?
    1. There are two programs. A long program and a short program. What happens in the short program wont help skaters deal with Kim's 150 point long program. If you think others can reach that fine, then discuss it, but just focusing on the short program doesnt get you anywhere.

    2. Are you suggesting now skaters like Suzuki and Sotnikova can beat a clean Kim. Are you really that delusional. I thought thinking Miki Ando could was already bad enough.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by torren View Post
    Mao also has had not many mostly clean or clean programs, But not as much as Carolina. not absolutely equal with Carolina
    I can not even remember when Carolina had clean lp in her whole career
    I agree that Mao has lower chance to have clean programs than kim, but she has higher chance to have clean programs or mostly clean than Carolina
    With Mao's current jump layout she is much less likely to skate cleanly than anyone in the top 15, including Kostner. Yes Mao has had some clean programs in the past but never attempting a jump layout like she has today which few men could probably even execute cleanly. Most likely neither will skate, but Kostner will be the one with less mistakes of the two.

  12. #32
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    To be honest, judging by the last season's success on all different jumps, when Asada is on absolutely top form, she can potentially hit 3a, 2a-3t, 3s, 3f-2t-2l, 3l without problems and get ratified with some GOEs (between 0.5-1.5). She attempted those 5 jumps successfully at least once last season.

    The only unrealistic jumps are 3f-3l and 3lz. She probably will never complete them with no 'e' or '<'. But it's fine. She can at least complete them without falls.

    I do believe Asada is capable of tuning her form to peak at Olympics, just like 2010. If she's able to do that, she will have a huge TES and third highest PCS that no one can catch up. That's her goal, and I think she can do it.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    1. There are two programs. A long program and a short program. What happens in the short program wont help skaters deal with Kim's 150 point long program. If you think others can reach that fine, then discuss it, but just focusing on the short program doesnt get you anywhere.

    2. Are you suggesting now skaters like Suzuki and Sotnikova can beat a clean Kim. Are you really that delusional. I thought thinking Miki Ando could was already bad enough.
    1. What I wanted to say in that post is
    We can not get example of Mao's clean FS. But already Mao's clean SP score surpassed kim's clean SP. Both two did clean SP, But Mao's was the season best. As she did at SP, I think in overall, clean Mao will surpass clean kim.
    2. I did't wanted to say they can beat her. Just when consider jumps contents, mistake and comparing score, There was not big difference and kim was not overwhelming. Scores say that. It was not an opinion. don't ask me
    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    With Mao's current jump layout she is much less likely to skate cleanly than anyone in the top 15, including Kostner. Yes Mao has had some clean programs in the past but never attempting a jump layout like she has today which few men could probably even execute cleanly. Most likely neither will skate, but Kostner will be the one with less mistakes of the two.
    At least Mao does not often fall which is the most serious mistake as much as kostner.
    Last edited by torren; 07-31-2013 at 06:24 PM.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by torren View Post
    1. What I wanted to say in that post is
    We can not get example of Mao's clean FS. But already Mao's clean SP score surpassed kim's clean SP. Both two did clean SP, But Mao's was the season best. As she did at SP, I think in overall, clean Mao will surpass clean kim.
    2. In only SP in last season. Scores say that. It was not my opinion. don't ask to me
    This I will say it may not be the case. Yes, Asada's season best sp score is higher than Kim, but
    1. Kim's spin levels at NRW were not as good as at Worlds (IIRC, one of her NRW spin was level one). With Worlds' spin levels, she could have got at least another 1.5 points.
    2. Kim's SP PCS will likely increase next season. As a reigning world/olympic champion, the boost is inevitable.

    Therefore, coming to Olympics season, the SP score between these two skaters may be a real nail-biter. It's basically a tie.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by torren View Post
    At least Mao does not often fall which is the most serious mistake as much as kostner.
    Falling on a triple jump is not the most serious mistake in terms of jumping. The most serious mistake for jumps would be completely abandoning a jump pass like Mao Asada did at the 2007-2008 season GPF during the SP to place last in that segment. You get ZERO points for omitting a required jump element in the SP. The next most serious mistake would be singling a jump. I was just wondering if anyone has ever fallen on a single jump . . . I've never seen anyone do that. At least when you fall on a triple jump, you still net points.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by torren View Post
    At least Mao does not often fall which is the most serious mistake as much as kostner.
    Well according to you Mao is more consistent than Kostner, and also has more scoring potential than Kostner. Yet in the last 3 years she regularly loses to Kostner. When was her last win over Kostner now, 2010 sometime? So atleast 1 is wrong, either Mao is more inconsistent and is generally making even more mistakes these days than Kostner, or her scoring potential is in fact now less. It is not possible to be more consistent than someone, have more scoring potential, and still always be losing to them.

  17. #37
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    It is too hard to say. Too many possible factors even in the fantasy of all skating cleanly. What will their new programs look like. Who will have momentum and political support from a stronger season going in. Which skaters will a certain judging panel like. For some skaters who have a bad flutz that they cant get rid of can that still count as a mistake for them.

    All I will say is the following:

    -I think even if all the women skate cleanly Yu Na Kim would win out over Kostner and Asada, even with Asada's much higher base value. Even a clean Asada would lose enough points in GOE and PCS (especialy since I dont count a flutz as a mistake for her as she isnt capable of doing a lutz) to lose to a clean Kim and maybe even a clean Kostner despite her base value edge.

    -I think Kim is much more likely to skate clean or closer to it than Asada or Kostner, making her just that much more likely a winner.

    -There is ZERO chance in a clean competition of a podium any other than Kim, Asada, or Kostner in some order. The good news for the other girls is there is almost zero chance of Kostner or Asada skating cleanly.

    -Amongst the large 2nd tier of ladies I think Gold and Wagner would be scored the highest if the rest all skated their best. Sotnikova, Osmond, #2 Russian, Suzuki, would all be scored about the same but below the 2 U.S girls unless there is home boost to the scores for the Russian ladies or they show improvements/have great programs.

    -Chan will win if he is clean no questions at all, and probably by atleast 15 points. Good news for the other boys is almost no chance he goes clean, but how many mistakes he makes is the question.

    -A clean Volosozhar & Trankov are unbeatable. They probably wont skate clean but will probably still win.

    -Fernandez if he skates clean I would predict to beat the Japanese men no matter what they do, and beat Chan if he has enough mistakes.

    -I could see Chan right off the podium given how many mistakes he is likely to make.

    -Duhamel & Radford might be the favorites for the bronze based on their consistency, but if everyone skated cleanly they would not finish 3rd.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabybackhand View Post
    I think even if all the women skate cleanly Yu Na Kim would win out over Kostner and Asada, even with Asada's much higher base value. Even a clean Asada would lose enough points in GOE and PCS (especialy since I dont count a flutz as a mistake for her as she isnt capable of doing a lutz) to lose to a clean Kim and maybe even a clean Kostner despite her base value edge.
    I seriously doubt it. Don't forget, going for that kind of difficulty and nailing it will boost Mao's scores across the board...and doing it on the biggest stage there is? No way the judges wouldn't reward her for that. In a hypothetically clean skate, the only jump she would lose anything on would be the lutz. The rest of her jumps would get +1s and +2s (I don't believe she'd get any +3s) but her spins and footwork would get +2s and +3s. Cleanly executing technical content will equal a boost in her PCS. She'd be able to at least pull even with Yu-Na and Carolina in that section.

    Crunch the numbers. Over the course of the SP and FS, mathematically, I don't see how it's possible for anyone to beat her.


    Quote Originally Posted by Gabybackhand View Post
    I think Kim is much more likely to skate clean or closer to it than Asada or Kostner, making her just that much more likely a winner.
    That's why we pose this as a hypothetical. Yu-Na is much more likely to hit her bigger tricks and minimize her mistakes at this point...but the ice is slippery and stranger things have happened.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gabybackhand View Post
    Amongst the large 2nd tier of ladies I think Gold and Wagner would be scored the highest if the rest all skated their best. Sotnikova, Osmond, #2 Russian, Suzuki, would all be scored about the same but below the 2 U.S girls unless there is home boost to the scores for the Russian ladies or they show improvements/have great programs.
    I definitely think if Adelina Sotnikova managed to have a clean competition at home in Sochi she'd end up in the top 5. She has the content Ashley lacks and the presence/maturity/artistry Gracie lacks. Add the hometown bonus to that and I think she'd have a great case for 4th or 5th place. The only thing holding that girl back is her confidence.

  19. #39
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    Sorry but I think the very suggestion a clean Asada would ever get the same or higher PCS as a CLEAN Kim or Kostner is purely fantasy at this point. The judges have consistently scored Asada much lower in PCS than those two, especialy Kim but more recently also Kostner, for years now, even when they make as many or more mistakes than her. As for GOE if you arent getting hardly any +3s on jumps you are losing ground to them too.

    Another thing too in Vancouver even had Mao been squeeky clean she would have lost to Kim by atleast 10 points. This isnt even arguable, as the protocals show this, take away Mao's only 2 mistakes, add some generous GOE and PCS and she is still way behind over the two programs. Have the rules or anything about Mao or Kim's skating really changed SO much that she now is ahead with both skating cleanly, when back then she would have been way behind. Keep in mind Mao was doing 3 triple axels over the two programs and planning all the triples besides the triple salchow even then.

    Sorry I dont see a clean Kim losing, even to a clean Mao. Granted all skating cleanly will be closer than the event probably will be which will be Kim making fewer mistakes than Kostner and Mao and the gap being even more.

    I have also looked at numbers and Mao's LP at Worlds would have been below Kim's even had she gone clean, unless one assumes a super generous GOE on the jumps she missed and PCS boost, more than I believe the judges were willing to give her. I wont even bother with the SP since the next time Kim skates a clean short if it isnt a way higher score than Worlds I will be stunned.


    As for Sotnikova vs Gold and Wagner it is hard to say for certain but Sotnikova seems to get buried if she even makes a few mistakes so I dont see even a clean skate from her pushing her way up the ranks, if others are clean too. Gold has been making lots of mistakes all year and still regularly beats her.

  20. #40
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    I don't think you're giving Mao enough credit which is understandable. We've not had a case where Mao has executed her proposed content so we don't really have anything to compare it to.

    As I said, this was a discussion that went on for 25+ pages over at GSU and several times in that thread people compiled numbers and came up with possible scores for clean skates. In the case of Mao, ForeverFish came up with this analysis of what kind of scores Mao would receive for a perfect SP & FS:

    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I will gladly do a breakdown of Mao's program, though it probably won't be of the quality of yours, jiggs. I'm very interested to see how this turns out.

    In the SP:

    3A: 10.07 (2013 4CC)
    3F+2Lo: 8.00 (2013 4CC)
    LSp: 3.41 (2012 Cup of China)
    FCSp: 3.77 (2012 CoC)
    3Lo: 6.51 (2013 4CC)
    CCoSp: 4.29 (2012 NHK)
    StSq: 5.80 (2013 WTT)
    Total TES: 41.85

    Mao received 33.86 in PCS at 4CC for what was arguably her best performance of the season. So, her total SP score is 75.71.

    Now, for the FS:

    3A: 10.07 (2013 4CC)
    3F: 6.10 (2012 NHK)
    3Lz: 6.00 (she hasn't yet landed one cleanly this season, so let's just give her the BV with 0 GOE)
    3Lo+2Lo: 7.50 (2013 Worlds)
    FCCoSp: 4.50 (2013 Worlds)
    2A+3T: 9.54 (2013 Worlds)
    3S: 5.52 (2013 Worlds)
    CCoSp: 4.50 (2012 CoC)
    3F+2Lo+2Lo: 10.37 (2012 GPF)
    FCSp: 3.77 (2012 GPF)
    StSq: 5.80 (2012 NHK)
    ChSq: 3.70 (2012 GPF, 2013 4CC)
    Total TES: 77.37

    Let's use her PCS from Worlds, 68.71, and give her one more point because we're assuming she goes clean. Her total score for the FS is 147.08.

    Overall, Mao scores 222.79 with her program layout from Worlds. This hinges on the probability that she skates absolutely clean in BOTH segments of the competition, I know. But we're talking about what COULD happen, not what WILL happen.
    That jump layout does not include a 3-3 in the FS which she plans to do BTW. She ends up with a total of 222.79...compare that with Yu-Na's total score of 218.31 from this year's worlds which (in the FS) was about as perfect as she can get from a skating standpoint and about as generous as the judges get from a scoring standpoint. She had like 32 +3 GOEs and six 10.00s in PCS. To put that into perspective, she only got 7 +3s in Vancouver and her highest PCS was 9.50. I don't think Yu-Na can score too much higher than what she did at worlds this year. Add back the point she lost in the SP on the flip...that'd push her to 219.31. Maybe +1 or +2 points for extra inflation but I can't see her score higher than that.

    When it comes to Mao skating cleanly, going by the actual numbers, she's a lot closer to Yu-Na than people would think. I do think inflation would factor into scores for everyone but if Mao were to execute that kind of content perfectly for the first time at the Olympics, I do think her PCS and GOE would receive a significant hike. We've never seen that happen so we don't really know how much but I know she'd score higher than she ever has before.

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