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  1. #41

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    I don't think it's inconceivable that she could make the Olympic podium. Gold, no. Had Joannie Rochette ever made the World podium? I can't remember. Mirai came very close without ever having been to World's. For Ashley to have a shot at a medal, she would have to skate clean and up her tech content and would also have to benefit from someone else's mistake. That's how I see it.

  2. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by giselle23 View Post
    I don't think it's inconceivable that she could make the Olympic podium. Gold, no. Had Joannie Rochette ever made the World podium? I can't remember. Mirai came very close without ever having been to World's. For Ashley to have a shot at a medal, she would have to skate clean and up her tech content and would also have to benefit from someone else's mistake. That's how I see it.
    Rochette won the silver at 2009 Worlds.
    I can call the moon a pear, but it doesn't make it so. -- kwanfan1818

  3. #43
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    Joanne was 1. World medalist 2. Skating at home 3. Hyped as podium material for years.
    Ashley ticks none of these boxes.

    4th was amazing for mirai. But she didn't medal, did she.

  4. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by berthesghost View Post
    Joanne was 1. World medalist 2. Skating at home 3. Hyped as podium material for years.
    Ashley ticks none of these boxes.

    4th was amazing for mirai. But she didn't medal, did she.
    This. Furthermore, Ashley is not the same calibre as Joanne was. I believe is was a fairly commonly held idea that Joanne had both the technical and artistic ability to be on the World / Olympic podium if she could only get her head together. That is, IMHO, quite different from someone who appears to have her head together but doesn't have the technical content or consistently superior artistic programs. Ashley is very good at many things, but she isn't the best at anything. Joanne arguably had the best 3 sal of her era, she had a amazing lutz on an outside edge, she had fabulous skating skills with strong deep edges and great speed. Her program choreography was in the top group and she had transitions to die for.

    Reading my posts, it sounds like I don't like Ashley. I do enjoy her on TV, and I would be thrilled if she pulled an upset and ended up on the podium. I just wouldn't bet money on it happening.
    A good rant is cathartic. Ranting is what keeps me sane. They always come from a different place. Take the prime minister, for example. Sometimes when I rant about him, I am angry; other times, I am just severely annoyed - it's an important distinction. - Rick Mercer

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by giselle23 View Post
    I don't think it's inconceivable that she could make the Olympic podium. Gold, no. Had Joannie Rochette ever made the World podium? I can't remember. Mirai came very close without ever having been to World's. For Ashley to have a shot at a medal, she would have to skate clean and up her tech content and would also have to benefit from someone else's mistake. That's how I see it.
    ITA. I'd also add that Ashley has been in the top five at the last two World Championships, which isn't a medal, but she still managed to be just outside of the podium. She also didn't have the skates of her life at those competitions either. Her 2013 LP at Worlds was probably the worst one of the season.

    Kim, Kostner, Asada, and Wagner also aren't models of consistency, and I imagine at least one of them will falter. Depending on how the competition goes, I don't think it's that unrealistic for Wagner (or Murakami) to get 3rd and wouldn't consider it a huge upset. Gold or silver yes, but not bronze. If she skates well and the competition isn't top notch, I see Ashley in the 3rd-6th range. A medal isn't something I'd bet on, but I wouldn't write it off either.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by RockTheTassel View Post
    Her 2013 LP at Worlds was probably the worst one of the season.
    Wagner fell twice in the LP at both the GPF and at Nationals last season. The Worlds LP certainly was not the worst of the season despite the fluke fall on her footwork.

  7. #47
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    If she skates well and the competition isn't top notch, I see Ashley in the 3rd-6th range. A medal isn't something I'd bet on, but I wouldn't write it off either.
    I think this is a fair assessment. The last two Worlds, she was 4th and 5th, so top 6 at the Olympics seems totally doable. Her best senior international finish was winning 4 Continents (over Asada) in 2012. When it comes to reputation judging, I wonder how the judges weigh a 4CC title vs a World bronze.

  8. #48
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    I'm surprised some are saying Kim is not a model of consistency. It really doesn't get any more consistent that Kim. Wagner isn't even close. I do think she could sneak in a bronze if she has a skate of her lifetime and Asada falters. I actually think Gold might have equal chances for that medal, depending on how her season unfolds.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Wagner fell twice in the LP at both the GPF and at Nationals last season. The Worlds LP certainly was not the worst of the season despite the fluke fall on her footwork.
    Oops, for some reason I had it in my mind that she fell once in each of those programs. I guess her 2013 Worlds LP stands out to me as a particularly bad performance. She just totally ran out of steam.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lnt175 View Post
    I'm surprised some are saying Kim is not a model of consistency. It really doesn't get any more consistent that Kim. Wagner isn't even close. I do think she could sneak in a bronze if she has a skate of her lifetime and Asada falters. I actually think Gold might have equal chances for that medal, depending on how her season unfolds.
    Kim's Olympic performance was absolutely stellar, but I don't think she's been that consistent if you look at her career as a whole and what she's capable of achieving. But she does has more room for mistakes compared to someone like Wagner and would beat her easily if she skates decently.

    I also agree that Gracie could potentially have the same outside shot at bronze.

  11. #51

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    I think Ashley and Gracie have some shot at a Olympic Medal, so do Adelina, Liza Kaetlyn and Kanako. I think it's likely one of these will end of on the podium. We've never seen a World podium repeat as an Olympic podium. One of Mao/YuNa/Caro will likely not be at her best for whatever reason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lnt175 View Post
    I'm surprised some are saying Kim is not a model of consistency. It really doesn't get any more consistent that Kim. Wagner isn't even close. I do think she could sneak in a bronze if she has a skate of her lifetime and Asada falters. I actually think Gold might have equal chances for that medal, depending on how her season unfolds.
    I think the only reason some would say Kim is not totally consistent is she has won lost 4 of the World titles since 2007 and she really should have won all of them skating anywhere near her potential. Still compared to others of her era she is the most consistent, and she probably has never made enough mistakes to lose to someone like Wagner even at Wagner's absolute best. Unless Wagner improves, hence what this thread is about.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    I think Ashley and Gracie have some shot at a Olympic Medal, so do Adelina, Liza Kaetlyn and Kanako. I think it's likely one of these will end of on the podium. We've never seen a World podium repeat as an Olympic podium. One of Mao/YuNa/Caro will likely not be at her best for whatever reason.
    Kim is 100% lock for a medal of some color (and probably 80% likely to win). Even not at her best she still cant be challenged by anyone besides Asada or Kostner. However it is possible either Kostner (Olympic history demons) or Asada (inconsistent, insane jump layout) could bomb themselves out of a medal.

  14. #54

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    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    I think the only reason some would say Kim is not totally consistent is she has won lost 4 of the World titles since 2007 and she really should have won all of them skating anywhere near her potential. Still compared to others of her era she is the most consistent, and she probably has never made enough mistakes to lose to someone like Wagner even at Wagner's absolute best. Unless Wagner improves, hence what this thread is about.
    Never? She has lost the LP to freaking Rachael Flatt before. Looking at the way she skated at the last Worlds, she looks invincible, but there have been times in her career where she seemed quite beatable. Adam Rippon, who trained with her, said he'd never seen her skate her LP clean until the Olympics. It requires an a great amount of focus, ambition and health to peak at the Olympics, YuNa has by far the greatest scoring potential, but that doesn't mean she is guarenteed to win.

  15. #55
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    Did she lose to Flatt at Skate America? No. She still beat her by over 15 points. So she did not even come close to making enough mistakes over 2 programs to lose to the "freaking Flatt". The fact is she has not lost to anyone besides Asada, Kostner, or Ando (and you know Ando is no threat for the 2014 Games) since Skate Canada 2006, so that makes her a 100% lock for a medal. There are only 2 skaters in the field who have a chance to beat her even on her worst day. She might not be a lock to win, but her being right off the podium is an impossability.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    I think the only reason some would say Kim is not totally consistent is she has won lost 4 of the World titles since 2007 and she really should have won all of them skating anywhere near her potential. Still compared to others of her era she is the most consistent, and she probably has never made enough mistakes to lose to someone like Wagner even at Wagner's absolute best. Unless Wagner improves, hence what this thread is about.
    But for the first two years as a senior skater she was battling serious injuries so she was more unlucky than inconsistent. Some skaters never could have even competed at 07 and 08 worlds with Yuna's injuries and yet she still managed to medal.

  17. #57
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    Somewhat true but she missed the triple lutz twice at both the 2007 and 2008 Worlds. She lands even one of the two and she wins easily both times. That is her best jump. I don't think it can be explained away by just injury.

    Still her World title defeats were largely determined by either injury (2007 and 2008) and complete loss of motivation (2010 and 2011). When she is motivated and healthy she is unchallengable virtually.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lnt175 View Post
    I'm surprised some are saying Kim is not a model of consistency. It really doesn't get any more consistent that Kim. Wagner isn't even close. I do think she could sneak in a bronze if she has a skate of her lifetime and Asada falters. I actually think Gold might have equal chances for that medal, depending on how her season unfolds.
    Welcome to FSU where we make up our own definitions to words! Kim is "inconsistent" because she hasn't won every single event she entered. Apparently, anyone who isn't Sonja feaking Henie is "inconsistent".

    COP has produced 6 different ladies world champions in 9 years, and even the 3 ladies who managed to win twice each failed to defend their titles having to regain them instead. Compared to 6.0 and especially figures, COP promotes inconsistency in results. Kim has medaled every single time she shows up and no one else of this era has done that. She's the clock everyone's watch is set by.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    Never? She has lost the LP to freaking Rachael Flatt before. Looking at the way she skated at the last Worlds, she looks invincible, but there have been times in her career where she seemed quite beatable. Adam Rippon, who trained with her, said he'd never seen her skate her LP clean until the Olympics. It requires an a great amount of focus, ambition and health to peak at the Olympics, YuNa has by far the greatest scoring potential, but that doesn't mean she is guarenteed to win.
    I know adam said that, and maybe he said true. but It was a bit strage fact to me, because I had seen in that season kim had many clean run-through including her first GPS, TEB. but according to him, Kim could have clean run throughs easily in practice at competitions, but she could not have in criket club(practice ice rink). that was a bit strange

    Anyway
    in matters of her consistency, In last season, She had three competitions and had 2 clean SP / 2 clean FS. even numbers of clean programs is more than number of flawed programs. even I don't think there was top skaters who even participate in GPS, GPF and many competitions than kim, had more clean programs than her in the last season. If there is users who don't think kim is not consistency than other skaters, then I wonder which top skater - In Top 10 at this Worlds - do they think is more consistency than her right now? It is not to say they are wrong, just I wonder
    Last edited by karlon; 08-02-2013 at 06:27 AM.

  20. #60
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    Ashley is not one of my favourite skaters by any stretch. It's not that I don't like her or enjoy watching her it's just that there are others I enjoy watching more. Such as Asada, Suzuki, Kostner, Ando, Kim & Gedvanashvili.
    BUT I will say that her SP for last season (The red violin) was one of my favourites. It had very clean lines & the stucture of the programe (doing two of the three jumping elements later) was very good.
    I just don't have any faith in the judges at an Olympic Games. I really feel (And I know I'm going to get MASSIVE heat for this) that the US ladies get marked or placed higher than some who skate better on the night because they are American. Hughes SP in 02' & Flatt SP in 2010. Also Meissner in SP in 06'.
    This has also happened at the Worlds. I remember the Eurosport commentators at the 2009 Worlds being pretty angry with the marks Flatt & Czisny got in their SP's.
    I really felt at the World's this year that Ashley was very slow in her free skate & did not hold on to the landings of her jumps as well as she had in the past yet she still got a great mark.

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