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  1. #1
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    What does Wagner need to improve to control her own destiny vs big guns

    Right now Wagner is thought to have an outside shot to medal at the Olympics. People though all believe she needs Kim, Asada, and Kostner to make mistakes to beat any of them. She cant beat any of those if they are clean. Some even think that a clean Gold or Sotnikova might beat a clean Wagner, or maybe even Murakami or Osmond. What does Wagner need to improve upon to control her own destiny and be able to medal even if all the skaters are clean at the Games.

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    Well, I think that is sort of the wrong question. I am not sure how to pick out what she needs to improve upon, as a particular "thing".

    I think she is competitive with Asada and Kostner. Getting her 3/3 out there and landed will go a long way to assure her a place on the podium. I believe that neither Asada nor Kostner do the full 5 triples. So that is a positive on Wagner's side.

    I see Kim out in front, then Wagner, Asada and Kostner in the next group, and Gold, Stonikova, and maybe Suzuki in the third batch. The top four control their own destiny, and IMO, the others need someone to falter.
    DH - and that's just my opinion

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    She needs a triple triple. She might squeak by with a toe/toe but not against Kim. She needs a lutz toe or flip toe to beat a clean Kim. And even then I still think Kim has superior skills

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    I agree she needs a triple lutz-triple toe or triple flip-triple toe to beat a clean Kim. Maybe both if it is even possible to include both in one program under the current rules.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by AxelAnnie View Post
    I believe that neither Asada nor Kostner do the full 5 triples. So that is a positive on Wagner's side.
    You would be wrong. Kim and Osmond are the only two from the top 10 of the last Worlds who didn't plan all 5 basic types of triples in their LP.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    I agree she needs a triple lutz-triple toe or triple flip-triple toe to beat a clean Kim. Maybe both if it is even possible to include both in one program under the current rules.
    I am very surprised from your posting history that you would even give Wagner any hope of beating a clean Kim. In another thread, you proclaimed that Kim is in some "huge gap" by herself above all of the other women in contemporary skating history.
    Last edited by museksk8r; 07-26-2013 at 11:30 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    I am very surprised from your posting history that you would even give Wagner any hope of beating a clean Kim. In another thread, you proclaimed that Kim is in some "huge gap" by herself above all of the other women in contemporary skating history.
    What is your point. Slutskaya and Lipinski, especialy Lipinski, rank much lower than Kwan in history but still have a chance to beat even a clean Kwan. Thomas ranks much lower than Witt in history but still had a chance to beat even a clean Witt. Wagner will never rank anywhere near Yu Na Kim in history but it doesnt mean if she improves she cant have a chance vs a clean Kim in a given competition.

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    She needs a Triple-Triple, and a dramatic, striking program. A strong short program will have her well, placed, and in the judges' eyes..

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    Everything.
    1. She needs to skate clean, which so far seems a challenge for her.
    2. She needs to up her tech mark... a consistent 3/3, 2/3 etc..
    3. she needs to get rid of that 2 footing problem that plagues her.
    4. She needs some "wow" type programs/packaging. Nicks did a great job of boosting her last year. She needs to build on that.
    5. She needs to whore the crap out of cop.. pull an Evan and just make very point count.
    6. She needs to build some momentum. Not medaling at the last worlds already put her at a disadvantage. She needs to win a few GPS, medal at GPF, win nats, etc...

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    Quote Originally Posted by kuzytalent View Post
    What is your point. Slutskaya and Lipinski, especialy Lipinski, rank much lower than Kwan in history but still have a chance to beat even a clean Kwan. Thomas ranks much lower than Witt in history but still had a chance to beat even a clean Witt. Wagner will never rank anywhere near Yu Na Kim in history but it doesnt mean if she improves she cant have a chance vs a clean Kim in a given competition.
    The major difference here being that Thomas and Lipinski were able to beat their main rivals at least one competition prior to the Olympics, and both had at least one lights out skate in their Olympic season (Thomas at 88 nats and Lipinski at 98 GPF). Wagner has not come close to beating Kim, and she has yet to prove she can really skate clean in one major competition yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by berthesghost View Post
    Everything.
    ...
    4. She needs some "wow" type programs/packaging. Nicks did a great job of boosting her last year. She needs to build on that.
    This. Even if she skates clean with all the triples, her usual choreo and execution would not beat a clean Kim, Asada or Kostner, IMO. Wagner needs more power and presence on the ice. She needs good music and choreo that lifts her above the music.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    This. Even if she skates clean with all the triples, her usual choreo and execution would not beat a clean Kim, Asada or Kostner, IMO. Wagner needs more power and presence on the ice. She needs good music and choreo that lifts her above the music.
    I think she has power and presence. When I saw her for the first time, I was really impressed by that. But she skates too carefully, IMO.

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    This will sound harsher than I want it to, so in advance: I like Ashley, and I think she's made some amazing progress in the 2011-12 season, but.... I don't think one off-season is enough to improve so much as to control her own destiny against the big 3.
    She's behind in TES and PCS (and in reputation). Kim goes for 'only' 4 different triples, but has amazing quality in her jumps and a very consistent 3Lz-3T. Kostner goes for 5 triples, and can hit Lz and F without edge problems. Asada flutzes, like Wagner does, but she's going for the 3A and attempts all 6 triples.
    If she wanted to keep up with them, probably the 2A-3T and 3F-3T wouldn't even be enough.
    Amazing choreo would go a long way regarding the PCS, but only if Kostner, Kim and Asada don't really have good choreo themselves. She's weaker in SS, doesn't have the same speed that Kim and Kostner have, and OTOH not the posture and lightness of Asada. Her presence and confidence are great, but the other ladies are very good performers too.

    I don't think it's impossible that someone challenges the big 3, but I don't think it would be Wagner (if everyone would be clean, I don't even see her being 4 as of now).

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    Yeah, I think it also comes down to just the basic skating. Kim, Asada, and Kostner are just light years ahead of Wagner when it comes down to the basics (ie skating skills, etc). Although Wagner's jumps are solid and she does rack up some good GOE marks for them, the other three pack on higher GOE for their elements than Wagner does.

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    Ashley will need the performance of her life and mistakes by the big 3 to get on the podium. Akiko Suzuki could end up finishing ahead of her also if she has one of her best skates also. Then there is Gracie and Murakami who also are in the mix.

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    Speed. i could be wrong but I think she has slowed down in recent years and it takes away the wow factor, for me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smarts1 View Post
    Yeah, I think it also comes down to just the basic skating. Kim, Asada, and Kostner are just light years ahead of Wagner when it comes down to the basics (ie skating skills, etc). Although Wagner's jumps are solid and she does rack up some good GOE marks for them, the other three pack on higher GOE for their elements than Wagner does.
    For years it seemed USFSA determined who would go to the next level based on their presentation and whether or not they had something they called a lutz. I hope they've gotten the message that skating skills and jump quality are everything now.
    Keeper of Nathalie Pechelat's bitchface.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Ashley will need the performance of her life and mistakes by the big 3 to get on the podium. Akiko Suzuki could end up finishing ahead of her also if she has one of her best skates also. Then there is Gracie and Murakami who also are in the mix.
    ...... assuming both Wagner and Gold are at the Olympics!

  19. #19
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    Ashley said something in her TSL interview which resonated with me: She's not naturally graceful. Unfortunately, she's competing against swan-like skaters for a podium spot: Kim, Asada, Kostner. She will need the clean programs w/ 3-3 or 2x-3t. But, she will have to find a way to compete with yet stand out from the aforementioned skaters. Tall Order.

    BTW, I disagree with posters that say she needs to control her 2-footing. Already done.

    Summation - She just needs to build on all her components and find a vehicle that breaks thru the Kim/Asada/Kostner triumvirate

  20. #20
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    I think I posted this in another thread a few months back. I like Ashley, but she will need a flawless or perfect skate to even come close to being on the podium.
    Angie
    “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” ~ Thomas A. Edison

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