View Poll Results: 3 Olympic medalists for women in Sochi

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  • Kim

    120 90.23%
  • Kostner

    96 72.18%
  • Wagner

    28 21.05%
  • Asada

    67 50.38%
  • Suzuki

    8 6.02%
  • Gold

    16 12.03%
  • Osmond

    5 3.76%
  • Tuktamysheva

    9 6.77%
  • Sotnikova

    16 12.03%
  • Lipnitskaia

    5 3.76%
  • Murakami

    4 3.01%
  • Li

    7 5.26%
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  1. #1
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    Womens medalists at Sochi Olympics

    Who would be your picks for the 3 ladies medalists at the Sochi Olympics in any order. It is multiple choice so please pick 3 different ones.

    The womens poll was much easier than the mens are there are clearly only 12 with a chance, where for the men there were as many as 15 with a very slim chance at the bronze so I couldnt give everyone a category.

  2. #2
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    I will be shocked if Kim doesnt win gold and Kostner doesnt win silver. I know in theory Kim could get knocked to silver by an inspired Kostner or Asada, or Kostner could get knocked to 3rd or even 4th, or even have a total meltdown like Olympics past. However I just dont see it happening. I think the other medal will go to one of Wagner or Suzuki and not Asada actually, even if on paper Asada seems the favorite to complete the podium with some color of medal.

  3. #3
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    The big three: Kim, Asada and Kostner.

  4. #4
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    Kim, Asada, Kostner. It's not set in stone, but it definitly looks the most likely to me now.

    Maybe that's a stupid question, but could someone enlighten me why so many people seem to see Kostner as the defintie second and surely above Asada?
    Yes, she won the silver over Asada at this years worlds - by 1,42 points. Not exactly much. If the technical panel would have called her 3T-3T in the SP as 3T-3T< (which it was), Asada might have already won the silver (I don't want to start a fan war over this specific reasult now - I'm fine win Kostner winning the silver over Asada, I just want to point out how close it was).
    What Asada did at 4CC would have handily beat what Kostner did at worlds - and even moreso what Kostner did at euros (and maybe GPF Mao would have been enough too).
    Then there's the thing with the back record those two ladies have - Kostner always had trouble skating at least close to clean and her past olympic experiences aren't anything to brag about. She's been better these last two seasons, but she fell in both SPs and LPs this season still, and the Olympics are usually worse when it comes to pressure. Asada has her fair share of bad events too, but in 2010 she proved that she can be far from good all season to come back and deliver exactly when it counts.
    I don't mean to say Asada has the upper hand over Kostner, but I'd rather say they're pretty tied by now.

  5. #5
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    1. Kostner
    2. Kim
    3. Wagner

    Li'Kitsu, I think Asada's more prone to UR calls, Kostner will likely get higher PCS, and I believe she's closer to her peak than Asada is. The last time Mao beat Kostner was at Worlds 2010. Granted, it's only three competitions they've met at (Worlds 2011, 2012, 2013) so it doesn't mean much.

  6. #6
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    I also think Kostner has the upper hand over Asada right now and has a better chance of both overall winning a medal of some color, or winning the silver. The only thing I would give Asada equal or better chance in is to upset Kim for the gold, as her insane difficulty and jump layout is what is probably needed to terminate a good Kim, and Kostner does not have that as while she has gotten back to doing very hard programs again her base value is still only the same or slightly below Kim's.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Proustable
    Li'Kitsu, I think Asada's more prone to UR calls, Kostner will likely get higher PCS, and I believe she's closer to her peak than Asada is. The last time Mao beat Kostner was at Worlds 2010. Granted, it's only three competitions they've met at (Worlds 2011, 2012, 2013) so it doesn't mean much.
    It's true that Asada is prone to UR calls, but Kostner is prone to falls - how is that any better? There has been such a huge outcry over Chan winning with falls again at this worlds, I'd be suprised if the jugdes wouldn't penalize falls more severly at the Olympics, the biggest stage this sport has and probably the only stage where 'the public' aka non-fans are even taking notice.
    You're right about the PCS, but a decent skating Asada would very likely win in TES. And even a Kostner being closer to her peak is less likely to be "cleanish" than Asada is now - and she has gotten tremendously better again since the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, so even if she isn't at her peak, she's on an upward swing again.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Kim, Asada, Kostner. It's not set in stone, but it definitly looks the most likely to me now.

    Maybe that's a stupid question, but could someone enlighten me why so many people seem to see Kostner as the defintie second and surely above Asada?
    Yes, she won the silver over Asada at this years worlds - by 1,42 points. Not exactly much. If the technical panel would have called her 3T-3T in the SP as 3T-3T< (which it was), Asada might have already won the silver (I don't want to start a fan war over this specific reasult now - I'm fine win Kostner winning the silver over Asada, I just want to point out how close it was).
    What Asada did at 4CC would have handily beat what Kostner did at worlds - and even moreso what Kostner did at euros (and maybe GPF Mao would have been enough too).
    Then there's the thing with the back record those two ladies have - Kostner always had trouble skating at least close to clean and her past olympic experiences aren't anything to brag about. She's been better these last two seasons, but she fell in both SPs and LPs this season still, and the Olympics are usually worse when it comes to pressure. Asada has her fair share of bad events too, but in 2010 she proved that she can be far from good all season to come back and deliver exactly when it counts.
    I don't mean to say Asada has the upper hand over Kostner, but I'd rather say they're pretty tied by now.
    Asada vs Kostner is a toss up but Kim is by far more likely to win. She would be the one to win even if all skated cleanly, and she is by far the most likely to skate cleanly or make less mistakes. So all around by far the most likely winner. Asada and Kostner have only a very outside shot of gold each at most, and maybe equal chances to each other at silver, while being in equal danger to the many challengers from behind of even falling off the podium.

  9. #9
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    1.Kim
    2.Asada
    3.Wagner

    With Murakami,Kostner, and Li following respectively.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by blue_idealist View Post
    The big three: Kim, Asada and Kostner.
    If only
    I hope you are right.
    This podium would be as beautiful as the one from 2010 !

  11. #11
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    Kim, Kostner, Wagner

  12. #12
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    Are there actually any who dont think Kim will medal? I am surprised Kim, Davis & White, Virtue & Moir, and Volosozhar & Trankov dont have 100% votes. Since even if arguably none is a lock to win, I cant imagine any scenario those 4 skaters/teams dont medal.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    It's true that Asada is prone to UR calls, but Kostner is prone to falls - how is that any better? There has been such a huge outcry over Chan winning with falls again at this worlds, I'd be suprised if the jugdes wouldn't penalize falls more severly at the Olympics, the biggest stage this sport has and probably the only stage where 'the public' aka non-fans are even taking notice.
    You're right about the PCS, but a decent skating Asada would very likely win in TES. And even a Kostner being closer to her peak is less likely to be "cleanish" than Asada is now - and she has gotten tremendously better again since the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, so even if she isn't at her peak, she's on an upward swing again.
    1. Falls are always better than UR calls under COP. At Worlds 2013, Carolina fell twice (once in each segment) with one downgrade. She beat Mao, who didn't fall but had three URs (both had one pop on the loop, with Mao's being slightly worse because of the mandatory -3)

    2. I don't agree that a decent skating Asada would likely win TES against a decent skating Kostner. Kostner would likely get higher TES due to better GOEs and a reasonable base value. Lets take a gander at 2013 Worlds again. Asada beat Kostner on TES by 4.62 in the LP. However, she had a massive 11.55 base value lead over Kostner. Kostner was able to make up nearly seven points thanks to GOE alone, and that's with a skate that had one triple-to-single pop and one downgrade with a fall.

  14. #14
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    Falls are not always better than URs. Falls and other good elements are better than URed jumps with flawed landings and other questionably executed elements under COP.

  15. #15
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    Sorry, long post with a lot of numbers ahead:

    Quote Originally Posted by Proustable
    1. Falls are always better than UR calls under COP. At Worlds 2013, Carolina fell twice (once in each segment) with one downgrade. She beat Mao, who didn't fall but had three URs (both had one pop on the loop, with Mao's being slightly worse because of the mandatory -3)
    munow is right, an UR isn't flat out worse than a fall. Asada usually still lands her URed jumps on one foot and without any other mistakes, so her -GOE is relatively small: GPF: 3F< GOE -0,2; 2A-3T< -0.29 GOE; 4CC: 3F3Lo< -0.4; 2A3T< +0.07 GOE... that's really not a lot. If you take a 3T as an example, that's a lose of 30% of the BV (BV=4,1 so she loses 1,23) plus let's say -0.7 if all the jugdes give a -1. That's a loss of 1,93 Points. A 3F for example would be a loss of 2,29 Points.
    For a fall, you usually get all -3's and the -1 penalty additionally, so that's a loss of 3,1 Points. My main point though would still be that a fall (should) affect the PCS more than an UR call.
    Kostner had two falls, a pop and a DG, yes, but Asada had 3UR's, a Pop, a bad landing on the Axel, a 2Lo instead of 3Lo (no 3F3Lo because of the bad landing of the 3F, so she did a 3Lo2Lo), and she didn't get Lv4 on 4 out of 6 spins. And don't underestimate the spin levels, if Asada would have gotten her Lv 4's, she would have earned 1,6 points more (LSp3 to 4: +0,3; FCSp3 to 4: +0,4 twice; CCoSp3 to 4: +0,5 = +1,6 points in BV, without taking the higher +GOE into account). That alone would have been enough for silver, though barely.

    2. I don't agree that a decent skating Asada would likely win TES against a decent skating Kostner. Kostner would likely get higher TES due to better GOEs and a reasonable base value. Lets take a gander at 2013 Worlds again. Asada beat Kostner on TES by 4.62 in the LP. However, she had a massive 11.55 base value lead over Kostner. Kostner was able to make up nearly seven points thanks to GOE alone, and that's with a skate that had one triple-to-single pop and one downgrade with a fall.
    Huh? You just said yourself that Asada beat Kostner in the FS in TES, and both skated decently there (don't tell me Kostner didn't, because she usually skates like that).
    There's not much about agreeing or disagreeing here, you can simply count it: how much points did Asada lose? 3A: -2,14; 3F<: 1,2+1,59=2,79; 3Lo to 2Lo: 3,3; CCoSp3: 0,5; 2Lo<: 0,54+0,3=0,84; FCSP3: 0,4. So overall: 9,97 points. And Kostner? 1Lo: 4,59; 3S<<: 2,77+0,6=3,37 + -1 fall deduction. So overall: 8,96. That's actually about 1 points less.
    So they lost about an equal amount of points in TES, and Asada won with 4,62. How would that make you think, both ladies skating equally well, Kostner would win in TES? What's the matter with Asada's TES lead being all BV? It doesn't matter at all, higher TES is higher TES. And the difference is more than the PCS difference was (2,28).

  16. #16
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    My main point though would still be that a fall (should) affect the PCS more than an UR call.
    In my understanding of the scoring system, a fall clearly affects the PC mark by that the -1 point is deducted from the skater's TSS (TES + PCS). By contrast, there doesn't seem to be any such mandatory deduction from the total segment score for URs or popped jumps.

  17. #17
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    1. Asada had a huge lead on Base Value

    2. Kostner was able to make up some of that lead due to her GOE.
    Asada base value: 62.30; Kostner base value: 50.75
    Asada TES: 65.96; Kostner TES: 61.34
    Asada GOE (TES - BV): 3.66. Kostner GOE: 10.69

    3. I believe that Asada might skate better in terms of maximizing her levels. I don't think she'll skate much better in terms of improving jump GOEs or URs. I believe that Kostner can skate better than she did at Worlds in terms of avoiding pops/DGs. Which is ultimately why I'm more comfortable predicting Kostner to beat Asada than the other way around.
    Last edited by Proustable; 07-15-2013 at 02:05 PM.

  18. #18
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    There are already reports Gold has significantly improved her artistry over the summer. If that is so and she puts it together, Kostner and Asada might have to skate close to clean to keep her off the Olympic podium.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    There are already reports Gold has significantly improved her artistry over the summer. If that is so and she puts it together, Kostner and Asada might have to skate close to clean to keep her off the Olympic podium.
    Gracie still won't get the PCS scores that Kostner or Mao usually get no matter how much she has improved. If clean she can beat both Mao and Kostner on TES since both are prone to making errors on their jumps. I can see perhaps her making a run at a Bronze but it depends if indeed she has made improvements in her choreography and performance skills plus she will need some luck from the top girls making mistakes.
    Last edited by Jammers; 07-15-2013 at 07:25 PM.

  20. #20

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    Gold may be improving artistically but it will only mean higher PCS if she is firmly established as number one. Because Wagner will also get "she so amazing artistically and so improved with a 3/3" maybe so she has to establish herself as US number one which means GP wins or medals and then appearance in GPF and then of course win the US title. It was great for Lipinski to win the title in 1997 and then win worlds and Gold winning US title in 2014 would mean judges PCS will be better than against Wagner because Wagner may get US number 1 PCS.

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