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  1. #1

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    Fans are already crowningsome skaters the 2014 Olympic champions. Should they?

    There is nothing 'sure' about an OGM. Yet, some fans are already crowning some skaters Olympic champions in 2014. Haven't we learned from the past? (e.g. Michelle in 1998, Irina in 2006, etc.)

    For the 2014 Olympics:

    Pairs:

    I don't believe V&T are a sure bet for the OGM. pairs champions. IMO one mistake could cost them the gold. They have S&S breathing down their necks, and a few lesser pairs could take the spot if the two top pairs make major mistakes (e.g. fall on a throw, multiple falls of any kind during the program, leaving out an element, etc.). The fact that the Olympics are in Russia could work for or against V&T. The pressure on them will be enormous to bring back the pairs gold. Can they handle it? That may be the key.


    Men:

    This is as sure an OGM as you can get (like Hamilton in 1984). Patrick Chan will have to make multiple mistakes in both SP & LP, and someone else (Fernadez? Takahashi? Hanyu? Ten?) will have to skate lights out in both, and even that may not be enough. Chan can be beaten, but it's a very very low probability. It's sort of like 2006, but Plushenko could not afford to make mistakes on jumps; Chan can.

    Ladies:

    This is where things get interesting. Yu na should be the overwhelming favorite, but will she skate as great as she did in 2010? Based on how she skated at the last worlds, I think the chances are pretty good that she will land all her jumps. Her main challenger would be Carolina Kostner, but she will have to skate a perfect SP and a near perfect LP, with a 3-3 combination. I don't see anyone else as an OGM contender. Will one of the younger skaters beat both favorites, like in 2002? Gracie Gold, Sotnikova, and may be someone else? As much as I love Mao's skating, I don't believe she has the jumps to beat the strong jumpers at this point. She may land he 3A, but she is prone to ur or mistakes on the easier jumps. She will have to be perfect in SP & LP and hope that all other top skaters make major mistakes. I hope Ashley wins an Olympic medal, but I don't see her as an OGM contender. Still, the ladies field may be as open as any, if Yu na and Carolina make major mistakes.

    Ice Dance:

    In the past this used to be almost a no-brainer, with the 3-time world champion winning the OGM, but not so in the last few Olympics.

    There are only two OGM contenders in 2014- D&W and V&M- and they are so evenly matched that it's hard to pick one. I won't mind it if they awarded a double gold in ice dance. Each has only 50% chance of winning right now. However, if one of them seems to be the judges' favorite during the season, that could tilt the balance in favor of that team. Barring injury (heaven forbid) this should be the greatest ice dance competition for the OGM. The rest of the field will battle for the bronze, and there are quite a few contenders for that.

  2. #2
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    I think Chan is the least likely lock, actually, and Kim the most likely. I think V/T and S/S could go either way if the Germans come back strong next year. I think V/M are more likely that D/W but not by much.

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    I think Pairs and Dance *should* be open, but sadly I think V/T and D/W could make mistakes and the judges would still place them first.

    I think they will be a bit more careful about scoring men fairly after criticism of the scoring the last 2 years!
    “What’s on the revengenda this evening?” – Nolan Ross

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    With regard to the thread title, ultimately I think it doesn't matter much whether fans "crown" some skaters in advance. Whether those skaters end up winning or losing, it won't be because fans did or didn't crown them. Fans who state a given result as certainty may end up embarrassed if it doesn't come to pass, but nobody else loses anything in the process.

    Journalists/commentators who state a given result as certainty will end up more embarrassed if it doesn't come to pass. But again, the loss is the person's who made the overconfident prediction, not the skater's. Unless the skater was guilty of buying into expectations and slacking off on preparation.

    Therefore skaters should not crown themselves in advance. If they do, they may well pay the price.

    Officials, of course, shouldn't crown skaters in advance but should call the event as they see it.

    Quote Originally Posted by miffy View Post
    I think Pairs and Dance *should* be open, but sadly I think V/T and D/W could make mistakes and the judges would still place them first.
    I think it's entirely possible that those teams will make mistakes and still win, but I do think they have challengers. I don't think those teams can afford major or multiple mistakes if their closest rivals skate their best.

    If all the top teams make mistakes, then the winner will be a team with mistakes.

    I think there will be surprises at the Olympics, and I strongly doubt that all four gold medals will go to the 2013 world champions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiruwater View Post
    I think Chan is the least likely lock, actually, and Kim the most likely.
    Exactly what I was just going to say!
    I hear outside a million panicking birds, and know even out there comfort is done with; it has shattered even the stars, this creature at last come home to me.

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    I don't think anyone is an absolute lock for gold. There may be some favourites but favourites have shown not to win too, so anything is possible. And yes, I agree with michiruwater, the men's will be the toughest fight. Hanyu, Fernandez, Daisuke, Patrick and of course now Ten, all have an equal chance of winning medals.
    Prosperity makes friends, adversity tries them. – Publilius Syrus

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    Look at history, there's no such thing!

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    People are still trying to do that, retroactively, on here. That's the nice thing about this sort of site. There are a lot of people here and most have strong opinions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    There is nothing 'sure' about an OGM. Yet, some fans are already crowning some skaters Olympic champions in 2014. Haven't we learned from the past? (e.g. Michelle in 1998, Irina in 2006, etc.)

    For the 2014 Olympics:

    Pairs:

    I don't believe V&T are a sure bet for the OGM. pairs champions. IMO one mistake could cost them the gold. They have S&S breathing down their necks, and a few lesser pairs could take the spot if the two top pairs make major mistakes (e.g. fall on a throw, multiple falls of any kind during the program, leaving out an element, etc.). The fact that the Olympics are in Russia could work for or against V&T. The pressure on them will be enormous to bring back the pairs gold. Can they handle it? That may be the key.
    One mistake cost them gold in 2012, true, but not since then and not against S/S. Additionally, I'd argue with their sky-high PCS and the fact that the field is prone to making their own major mistakes, they're locked in.


    Men:

    This is as sure an OGM as you can get (like Hamilton in 1984). Patrick Chan will have to make multiple mistakes in both SP & LP, and someone else (Fernadez? Takahashi? Hanyu? Ten?) will have to skate lights out in both, and even that may not be enough. Chan can be beaten, but it's a very very low probability. It's sort of like 2006, but Plushenko could not afford to make mistakes on jumps; Chan can.
    I don't know any more. Due to the general decline in Chan's technical prowess, his refusal to upgrade his technical content and the field's response (upgrading their own technical content, PCS), I don't think he's as much of a lock as he was a year ago. The thing that keeps him at the top of the heap, arguably, is that the field tends to be mistake prone as well.

    Ladies:

    This is where things get interesting. Yu na should be the overwhelming favorite, but will she skate as great as she did in 2010? Based on how she skated at the last worlds, I think the chances are pretty good that she will land all her jumps. Her main challenger would be Carolina Kostner, but she will have to skate a perfect SP and a near perfect LP, with a 3-3 combination. I don't see anyone else as an OGM contender. Will one of the younger skaters beat both favorites, like in 2002? Gracie Gold, Sotnikova, and may be someone else? As much as I love Mao's skating, I don't believe she has the jumps to beat the strong jumpers at this point. She may land he 3A, but she is prone to ur or mistakes on the easier jumps. She will have to be perfect in SP & LP and hope that all other top skaters make major mistakes. I hope Ashley wins an Olympic medal, but I don't see her as an OGM contender. Still, the ladies field may be as open as any, if Yu na and Carolina make major mistakes.
    I will predict Kostner for gold, Kim for silver, Wagner for bronze pretty much until the event itself.

    Ice Dance:

    In the past this used to be almost a no-brainer, with the 3-time world champion winning the OGM, but not so in the last few Olympics.

    There are only two OGM contenders in 2014- D&W and V&M- and they are so evenly matched that it's hard to pick one. I won't mind it if they awarded a double gold in ice dance. Each has only 50% chance of winning right now. However, if one of them seems to be the judges' favorite during the season, that could tilt the balance in favor of that team. Barring injury (heaven forbid) this should be the greatest ice dance competition for the OGM. The rest of the field will battle for the bronze, and there are quite a few contenders for that.
    I think the odds favour D/W for gold, but would love to be wrong. The bronze will be VERY interesting indeed.

  10. #10
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    IMO V&T are a virtual lock for the gold. I do not feel 1 mistake could cost them the gold at this point. They would need to make atleast 3. With Olympics in Russia they will get an even bigger boost, and people wont be looking for a controversy since sad to say nobody really cares much about the Germans. Sure they have some dedicated fans but they dont have a posse from their part of the World backing them like Sale & Pelletier did, ready to defend them at the slightest inclination. Even people like NBC will want the storyline of pairs sumpremacy returning to Russia at home, and the big fluffy drama pieces, and they dont have a Sale & Pelletier or Shen & Zhao or Gordeeva & Grinkov to root for this time, so they are not only the judges favorites, but those around them too. Unless they skate horribly they wont lose, no matter what Savchenko & Szolkowy do. S&S have already peaked and are on decline anyway, I hope for them they can even hold onto silver and better their 2010 medal.

    I think Kim is the 2nd biggest likelihood for gold after V&T but I dont think she is as quite a virtual lock. I would say V&T are 95% likely and Kim more like 85%. I do think a couple mistakes could cost her gold only if Kostner or Asada skate lights out, and that is unlikely given Kostner's consistency record although she is much more than she used to be, and Asada's insane jump layout planned. As well as that Kim doesnt tend to make mistakes. Kim will be under alot of pressure just in the sense she needs to win in Sochi to confirm her greatest ever status, and that might weigh on her but she is still pretty close to a lock, but not quite as much of one as V&T.

    I dont see Davis & White as a lock. I see them as 65% likely roughly. Virtue & Moir are still a legit threat, but D&W have all the momentum on their side now and it probably will go to them if they skate perfectly without a minor break of any sort. Even with a minor break they might win, but could also lose, especialy depending on how V&W perform and what programs both teams come up with next year.

    I dont see Chan as even close to a lock. I see him as 30% likely at best, which makes him more likely not to win it than to win it IMO. Chan is already past his prime and is very vurnerable right now. He will be glad this is his final amateur season, but the question is can he hold on for one last year with the others closing the gap, his consistency and technical skills on the wane, and the controversies swirling around him which could have an effect on many people including the judges. I dont see any man with more than 30% odds so I guess that would make Chan the default favorite, but the mens gold is pretty wide open (but definitely still wont go to Lysacek or Plushenko, it isnt quite that open, lol) and could easily see Chan not win it, and even finishing off the podium wouldnt shock me at this point, though would surprise me a bit.

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    I am shocked that Chan is being seen as 'not a lock for OGM'. Haven't the last 3 years taught us something? He does not lose even when he makes mistakes. All other skaters (in all disciplines) pay for their mistakes. If everyone makes mistakes, then it's a non-issue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    I am shocked that Chan is being seen as 'not a lock for OGM'. Haven't the last 3 years taught us something? He does not lose even when he makes mistakes. All other skaters (in all disciplines) pay for their mistakes. If everyone makes mistakes, then it's a non-issue.
    Now you are trying to paint the picture that Chan's errors were not penalised which is not true. Trying to rehash the argument over and over again? The judging is not based on "you make less mistakes you win" and you are aware of that as this forum has discussed the judging system several times. That is also why some other skaters besides Chan can still win if they make mistakes eg. Hanyu and even Daisuke in last grand prix competitions.
    Well, if one thinks the competition should be 'no falls win', then change the judging system to heavily penalising all falls. Then the skaters will make sure they do programs they won't fall. Or if they fall more than three times, they are out of the competition. I assume all fans will be happy.
    Prosperity makes friends, adversity tries them. – Publilius Syrus

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    I am shocked that Chan is being seen as 'not a lock for OGM'. Haven't the last 3 years taught us something? He does not lose even when he makes mistakes. All other skaters (in all disciplines) pay for their mistakes. If everyone makes mistakes, then it's a non-issue.
    He lost Skate Canada and another competition last year. He is beatable if other skate up to their potential.

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    The title should be changed to "Non-fans are already crowning some skaters the 2014 Olympic champions."

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    Quote Originally Posted by fscric View Post
    The title should be changed to "Non-fans are already crowning some skaters the 2014 Olympic champions."
    this. yuna fans are not even crowning her or celebrating..

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    I personally am not crowning anyone. I can make guesses but you never know what's going to happen at the time of the competition! I can say Chan, Kim, and V&T will PROBABLY win the Olympic gold, but that's not giving up the possibility that someone else could get in there and snatch it. In ice dance, it's such a toss up between the two frontrunners, I think it will come down to what programs they choose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    I am shocked that Chan is being seen as 'not a lock for OGM'. Haven't the last 3 years taught us something? He does not lose even when he makes mistakes. All other skaters (in all disciplines) pay for their mistakes. If everyone makes mistakes, then it's a non-issue.
    After the unofficial protesting (even if most of it has been done online) after the 2013 Worlds, the judges might change their tune a bit. They won't want a repeat of SLC 2002, pairs division.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blue_idealist View Post
    After the unofficial protesting (even if most of it has been done online) after the 2013 Worlds, the judges might change their tune a bit. They won't want a repeat of SLC 2002, pairs division.
    So you think Skate Canada would bribe the judges to give the gold to Patrick!

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    Quote Originally Posted by fscric View Post
    So you think Skate Canada would bribe the judges to give the gold to Patrick!
    He doesn't need bribes. The cynic in me says SC will really be politcking for V/M tho. I may be in the majority but i don't think D/W have a shot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by miffy View Post
    I think Pairs and Dance *should* be open, but sadly I think V/T and D/W could make mistakes and the judges would still place them first.
    I hope not.

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