View Poll Results: Who will win Olympic Gold in 2014 for the mens skaters

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  • Chan

    57 37.75%
  • Takahashi

    11 7.28%
  • Hanyu

    22 14.57%
  • Kozuka

    2 1.32%
  • Ten

    8 5.30%
  • Fernandez

    28 18.54%
  • Plushenko

    11 7.28%
  • Lysacek

    3 1.99%
  • Aaron or Reynolds quad their way to gold

    4 2.65%
  • someone else (yeah right)

    5 3.31%
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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Proustable View Post
    Random thoughts on the subject

    1. Doesn't it feel like Chan's on the decline? A combination of deliberate technical stagnation (he feels he doesn't need to add more to his arsenal) and the lack of a technical/psychological training (again, according to his own words) has precipitated some of his worst skates in seasons. There's definitely a rising backlash to his victories/scoring that, regardless of coded/systemic changes, could work against him.

    2. Denis Ten, of course, peaked gloriously at Worlds. But I can't help feel that it was somewhat of a fluke. 60 points better than his prior season best? Nearly 40 points higher than his previous personal best? It'll be interesting to see where he goes now, but I'm not quite willing to commit to his podium chances yet. Or ever, really.

    3. The one I can rationalize my feelings with facts most easily is Javier Fernandez. He's moving up in general. He's skating better, which means he's scoring better, which means he's skating with more confidence, which is increasing his PCS, etc. He still makes costly errors, but he's gotten to that level where the judges won't hold him back. He has the second highest LP score ever. And if he does go for a two-quad SP/3 quad LP like more and more of the men seem to be trying (Aaron has mentioned it, Joubert already attempted it, ditto Reynolds) he might actually be unbeatable. More than any other guy, he seems to be closest to a sustainable (read for a season) peak.

    4. Or maybe Hanyu. Hanyu isn't closer to his peak, but if all goes well, his peak seems like it'll be higher than Fernandez. But Hanyu seems to be struggling a bit more. He had such a blazing start to his season (two World records back to back, GP silver, National title) only to decline. Even in those results we saw decline. Of course, in his previous two seasons, we saw him struggle a little in the start only to turn it on by the end. So it's a weird reversal. How much of that was adjusting to his new environment? I do feel like there's room enough for both Orser men to be on the podium, but where?

    5. If the results were democratic and FSU the voting body, is there any doubt that Takahashi would win in a walk? The most popular skater of his generation (I do consider him and Plushenko to be two different generations, fwiw), capable of real moments of genius. And a championship skater if there ever was one. Not one to take the easy way out (excepting the decision to go back to Morosov). But he's probably the farthest from his peak of the real contenders. He doesn't feel like a real number one. He's going into the next Olympics as the reigning bronze medalist, and it's hard not to feel like he might be like the last guy to go into the Olympics with that title. Entertaining skater with a long professional/choreographing career ahead of him if he wants.

    6. Plushenko. What is there to say about him? He defies belief. Missed Nagano on a fluke (Urmanov's withdrawal from 1997 Worlds meant that Russia would only have two spots and he was skating in a field where four men could make the final as they did during that Olympic season), but had been a competitive mainstay for eight more years and demonstrated he was capable of significant astonishment FIFTEEN years after his first World medal. He demonstrates a mental fortitude that most skaters cannot even approach. But while spirit is willing, what does the body say? I get why he wants to compete - he hasn't skated at home at a major event ever (WD from Moscow 2005, didn't compete in 2011. Russia didn't hold Euros during his career). Ultimately, I think the best he can do is a gold in the team event and that would be impressive and I think a worthy final bow. I don't anticipate him doing much damage in the individual event, though.

    7. Lysacek.... you know, at least Plushenko and even Wier walked-the-walk. Plushenko came back for Vancouver, won another European title in 2012, and won his billionth national title. Lysacek... notsomuch. All we've heard are the usual homilies and platitudes: he's better than ever, ready to compete, the goal is Sochi. But he hasn't competed. And I feel that the level has eclipsed what he did at his best.

    8. If someone has a Wylie moment, it could be Kozuka or Abbott (for the record, my Worlds 2013 dream podium was Kozuka-Fernandez-Abbott. You can imagine how disappointed I was that two of them didn't even make Worlds). But you just wish for Wylie moments, you don't bet on them.
    I agree with pretty much this entire post (except the dream podium in #8).

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Proustable View Post
    I presume you mean Abbott, because I think Kozuka still has a solid shot at the team.
    Yes I meant Abbott, who I do not think has a good shot to make the Olympic team.

  3. #23
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    I think Chan is at his peak physically but not having a real coach especially technically is destroying his jumps and he's too arrogant to admit he needs help. So long as the judges keep propping him up he thinks his sham of a coach is enough to get him to the finish line. Just what the hell is he thinking? Even the greatest jumpers like Plushenko know they need a tech coach to stay sharp and on top of things.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    I think Chan is at his peak physically but not having a real coach especially technically is destroying his jumps and he's too arrogant to admit he needs help. So long as the judges keep propping him up he thinks his sham of a coach is enough to get him to the finish line. Just what the hell is he thinking? Even the greatest jumpers like Plushenko know they need a tech coach to stay sharp and on top of things.
    I think at this point it is because he knows he has less than one year of amateur competition left, and feels it isnt worth making a change just for that small space of time.

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I think at this point it is because he knows he has less than one year of amateur competition left, and feels it isnt worth making a change just for that small space of time.
    I don't expect him to retire after Sochi. He is young and could easily go to the 2018 Olys.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    I don't expect him to retire after Sochi. He is young and could easily go to the 2018 Olys.
    I fully expect him to retire after Sochi and would be shocked if he didnt. He wanted to retire after Vancouver but only didnt since he liked the Olympic experience so much, he wanted it again, and he also didnt win a medal. Especialy if he wins gold as you suggest, then I would bet my house on him retiring, but even if he doesnt I would be very surprised if he continues. BTW he would be 28 by the 2018 Olympics. That is in no way young for amateur singles skating.

  7. #27

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    Chan could try for 2018 but has said so many things even before Vancouver about ending his career sooner rather than later.

  8. #28
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    Plushenko if he's healthy.
    Javi if he's determined.
    Chan and Lysacek-I don't think they will even make the podium. Just my gut feeling.
    Edit:it is not outside the realm of possibility that D10 could win the gold medal too.
    Last edited by immoimeme; 06-09-2013 at 03:31 AM. Reason: deep thinking lol

  9. #29
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    Poor Kozuka, even below Lysacek, Reynolds, and Aaron on the poll.

  10. #30

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    I don't have any gut feelings, but I think the guys who won't be participating in the team event - Fernandez, Ten - arguably have an edge. They'll be nice and fresh, and hopefully at their peak, for the men's event. The US, Jpn, Rus, Can guys may all be a little bit spent.
    "Marge, if you're going to get mad at me every time I do something stupid, then I guess I'm just going to have to stop doing stupid things!" - Homer Simpson in the Mr. Plow episode

  11. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Yes I meant Abbott, who I do not think has a good shot to make the Olympic team.
    I don't know, Jeremy seems to skate lights-out at every other Nationals, so he may be due to raise the roof this year again!
    Well, in any case, I wish him well.
    "Marge, if you're going to get mad at me every time I do something stupid, then I guess I'm just going to have to stop doing stupid things!" - Homer Simpson in the Mr. Plow episode

  12. #32
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    I agree he could do that again, but if he does make it, that is already his gold medal or Paul Wylie moment IMO. Atleast Wylie was fully expected to make the 92 Team, which is why he was held up not skating well at Nationals over the more deserving Mark Mitchell.

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