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  1. #741

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hanna View Post
    Wheeeeeeeeeeeeee, this just made my day! Can't wait to see them live.
    Hanna, shall I bring my German flag to Paris for you? Rita will surely be wawing hers.

  2. #742

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    Great news for Annabelle and Ruben! And now they could invite Peter Liebers and Nathalie Weinzierl as well (ok, kidding, she has to do the internal German olympic qualifying competition in Meran anyhow)

  3. #743

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    Quote Originally Posted by Finnice View Post
    Hanna, shall I bring my German flag to Paris for you? Rita will surely be wawing hers.
    Sure if it's not too much trouble.
    Rockin' Finnish commentator: "And that was supposed to be a flip but it turned out to be a flop."

  4. #744
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    Kaetlyn Osmond has WD from Rostelecom Cup as of the ISU's 11/11 update: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4933
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  5. #745

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    Damn.

  6. #746
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    Kaetlyn Osmond has WD from Rostelecom Cup as of the ISU's 11/11 update: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4933
    I know everybody can be clever in hindsight but it was a really bad decision to rush her to compete at SC instead of giving her more time to heal.

  7. #747
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    Is it too late for someone to get Osmonds spot?

  8. #748
    I <3 Kozuka
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    The GP Announcement says nothing about withdrawals between 8 and 13 days before the Team Leaders Meeting, which for Rostelecom Cup is a week from Thursday, or 10 days from the meeting. The Russian Fed can do what it wants. The Chinese Fed made two replacements during this time period. The Japanese Fed made one last season, but left a couple open. The Russian Fed left one open last season.
    "'Is this new BMW-designed sled the ultimate sledding machine for Langdon and Holcomb?' Leigh Diffey asked before the pair cruised to victory. I don’t know, but I know that sled is the ultimate Olympic Games product placement.." -- Jen Chaney

  9. #749

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    Isn't Glebova on the replacement list? She seems a logical choice.

  10. #750

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    whats with weinzierl? damn, how far is she down in this list?

  11. #751
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    Can Hicks get another assignment?

  12. #752
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flying Camel View Post
    Can Hicks get another assignment?
    Was thinking the same thing. She can withdraw from Ice Challenge and another gal from Midwesterns can go to Austria instead. Clear the field there a bit. But, it would have to happen fast!

    I realize that this is pure fantasy, though.

  13. #753
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    Quote Originally Posted by olympic View Post
    Was thinking the same thing. She can withdraw from Ice Challenge and another gal from Midwesterns can go to Austria instead. Clear the field there a bit. But, it would have to happen fast!
    I realize that this is pure fantasy, though.
    I don't think USFS wants to grant another bye. Maybe Hicks will get another assignment, but I don't expect the MW senior ladies field to clear up. Which makes it a great competition.
    I actually think the jr ladies field at MW to be even tougher, because the ladies who make it out of MW are likely to be also top 6 at nationals.

  14. #754

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    As disappointed as I am with this, I think this is the smart thing for Kaetlyn to do, we desparately need her ready for the team competition in Sochi, so if she has a couple extra weeks off that's fine, she'll get ready for December and be good to go for nats in January. I'm not shocked they decided to pull her out now. If she's not ready by nats in January then I will really worry, but she's got the rest of November and all of December now to really heal up and be good to go for nationals. I think this is more of a pre-emptive move than anything, but should be good for January. If we don't have her for team in Sochi, Canada's medal chances go out the door with it.
    Kyle

  15. #755
    I <3 Kozuka
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    For what it's worth, the Ladies Top Five:

    31-K. Zhang (CHN)
    34-Hicks (CAN)
    36-Glebova (none)
    37-Lafuente (none)
    39-C. Zhang (USA)

    Just outside are 42-Simancikova (none) and 43-Weinzierl (none)

    As far as Canada's Team medal chances going out the door if Osmond doesn't skate: unless a lot of the odds are beaten, that's highly unlikely. Canada's gold medal chances may go out the door, since, all things being equal, it should be a fight between Russia and Canada for the gold, but for Canada, with V/M and Chan, to drop below the likely 4th and 5th place teams -- all things being equal, two of Japan, China, France, and Italy -- would take a lot of upsets/quali-round-quality skates from the favorites.

    Based on this analysis (the link to it is in Visaliakid's post), if teams have to qualify three and can add a fourth, the ten teams will be (with guesses as to who would be on the teams):

    CAN--Osmond or next Canadian woman: Lacoste/Chartrand/Daleman? (Is Seguin still doing singles)
    USA--Wagner and/or Gold
    RUS--Lipnitskaia and Sotnikova/Tuktamysheva/Pogorilaya (etc.)
    ITA--Kostner and/or Marchei
    JPN--Asada and/or Suzuki and/or Murakami
    FRA--Meite
    CHN--Zhang? Li? One of the young ones?
    GER--Weinzierl or Hecken or ?
    UKR--Popova
    GBR--McCorkell

    If a team can qualify two and add a third (the minimum), then ESP (Lafuente) replaces GBR.

    I'm assuming, too, unless Chan and V/M want to do both segments, it is most likely that one Canadian Ladies skater will do both segments of the Team Event, since Pairs will likely have different SP and FS skaters if Chan or V/M skate both, as the Pairs event is right after the Team Event.

    Barring upset in either direction, a healthy Osmond is likely to place above FRA, CHN (given Li's current state), GER, UKR, GBR/ESP and ITA if Marchei skates. She's less likely to place above ITA if Kostner skates (or skates full out), JPN, or USA. She's likely to place behind Lipnitskaia, unless JL succumbs to nerves, but has a good chance of beating any of the other Russian women in the SP, if they don't step up.

    Lacoste should be competitive with GER, UKR, GBR/ESP and ITA if Marchei skates. Of course Lacoste doesn't have the potential upside that Osmond does -- a nervous showing by the Russian skaters or even a Kostner-of-past-Olympics performance is a target for Osmond but not likely for Lacoste -- and the other skaters are more competitive if Lacoste hits more nerves than usual, but it shouldn't be a matter of more than a few points difference in the SP, and even the last place finisher in the FS gets 6 points (compare to the winner's 10).

    Of the five teams likely to be in the finals, CAN is strong in three out of four disciplines, and deep in at least Pairs and Dance. (Reynolds is behind this season.) RUS has the potential to place 1-3 in every event, if Plushenko is healthy. USA is especially strong in Dance, and the Ladies have potential, but Men and Pairs tend to fall in the lower half of the Top 12 (at Worlds). Japan is weak in Dance and Pairs. China is weak in Dance and Ladies if someone doesn't regain form by February. ITA is weak in Men, while potentially top in Ladies; Pairs are lower half of top 10, and Dance may depend on who shows for what. FRA is strong in Dance only with P/B, the Men (Amodio or Joubert) could place anywhere, but the way they've been skating recently, Top 5 would be a decent showing for them, and Ladies and Pairs are bottom half of top 12 (at Worlds). I know that only having one entry levels the playing field, but there's some formidable competition out there.

    I don't see what three teams would drop Canada from the podium, barring disaster, and in that case, it wouldn't be a matter of whether or not Osmond skates.

    In the finals, Osmond will have to skate very well to beat USA, but I don't think she has a great chance against RUS: even if there is a weak SP performance by RUS, even the relatively weak Worlds performances by Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva scored higher than Osmond's FS in London. If JPN is one of the Top Five, she's unlikely to beat the Japanese woman. Against ITA, it depends on who skates. I think either Osmond or Lacoste could be competitive against CHN, but, if history holds, Osmond should be Meite, while Lacoste would have a hard time if Meite skates well.

    Regardless I think it's a good move for Osmond to rest and heal, so that she can have the best Olympics experience and be ready for 2018.
    "'Is this new BMW-designed sled the ultimate sledding machine for Langdon and Holcomb?' Leigh Diffey asked before the pair cruised to victory. I don’t know, but I know that sled is the ultimate Olympic Games product placement.." -- Jen Chaney

  16. #756
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    Quote Originally Posted by euterpe View Post
    Isn't Glebova on the replacement list? She seems a logical choice.
    She lives and trains in the US.

  17. #757

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    thanks for the clearance about weizierl kwanfan

  18. #758
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    Ross Miner has WD from TEB: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4934

    (His agent, David Baden, tweeted to him yesterday "get better soon Glad it's not serious" which sounds like a minor injury, hopefully.)
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  19. #759
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  20. #760

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    I would think ISU would think of a reserve skater travelling to the event by now, considering in each event at least one skater pulls out due to injury.

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