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  1. #221

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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    Ah. So if we're talking season's best (not world ranking), Jason is #22 and Adam is #29, which does make it more likely that Jason would get a second GP as a replacement instead of Adam.

    Bumbling my way through these lists at any rate. Is Jason the highest-ranked skater on that list with only one GP? Would that mean he is #1 in the replacement line?

    This is so confusing.
    I believe last year the rule was interpreted to mean the host countries could pick any skater out of the top 5 on the SB list. This means that even if Jason is #1, he may not be the next chosen. Of course, things may be done differently this year
    A good rant is cathartic. Ranting is what keeps me sane. They always come from a different place. Take the prime minister, for example. Sometimes when I rant about him, I am angry; other times, I am just severely annoyed - it's an important distinction. - Rick Mercer

  2. #222
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    I thought it was odd that the ISU put out "new" rosters for Dance and Pairs dated August 14, but there were no changes from the last published Dance and Pairs rosters.

    Congratulations to the US skaters who've been assigned to SA TBA's

    Two seasons ago (2011-12), the GP Announcement read (emphasis mine):

    The alternate list needs to be worked through in ranking order for the top 24 ranked skaters/couples according to their SB and/or their WS until all of such skaters/couples will have received the invitation to a second event. All other skaters/couples of the alternate list will be grouped in top ranked groups of three (3)skaters, out of which the respective organizing member may pick one skater/couple for invitation.
    There was no conflict here: the Top 24 SB and WS skaters with one got a second before the any other sub-groups, like 25-75 SB were assigned (unless, presumably there was a conflict: skater/team already assigned to the event, three others from the country already assigned, etc.)

    Last season, the wording was changed to:

    The alternate list needs to be worked through in ranking order for the top 24 ranked skaters/couples according to their Season’s Best. All skaters/couples of the alternate list will be grouped in top ranked groups of five (5) skaters, out of which the respective Organizing Member may pick one skater/couple for invitation.
    Here it says all skaters on the alternate list are assigned to groups of five. That presumably includes skaters higher in the hierarchy than Top 24 SB, like split couples/return skaters/couples. (Top 24 WS with one were dropped last season from the first statement and from the list of groups.) They clearly dropped Top 24 WS from the Top 24 statement, but they also removed the qualifier that all other skaters after the Top 24 SB are not included in the groups, which creates a contradiction, but that's common practice for ISU documentation.

    Peng/Zhang (CoC, NHK, her) got two in the initial selection. In Dance there were no split couples or returning couples. In singles, return skaters Weir (RC, TEB) and Ando (CoC, TEB) were assigned two in the initial selection.

    Last season, there were two split couples in Pairs with one -- Yankowskas/Reagan (CoC, her) and Davis/Ladwig (NHK, him), and they got the first two substitute assignments on 20 August for Marley/Brubaker's two events (D/L at SC, and Y/R at NHK). Whether that was deliberate -- i.e., despite the wording about the groups of five, it doesn't apply to split couples/return skaters -- or just happened to be agreements between USFS to substitute those particular US teams for Marley/Brubaker isn't clear. This season there are two split Pairs couples who were assigned one in the initial selection and didn't get a TBA -- Purich/Tran (TEB) and Davis/Brubaker (SC) -- and we'll see whether they are skipped for teams below them when they would be eligible.

    What we do know from last year's practice is that Top 24 skaters who were otherwise eligible to be chosen were skipped in favor of skaters in the group of five who moved into the selection group after another skater was chosen out of it. Brown and Menshov are guaranteed no spots if last year's practice is any indication, but Menshov may be chosen for the RC TBA. All things being equal -- no quid pro quo or other consideration -- what incentive is there for a host to chose at Top 24 SB skater to compete against their own when the host can pick SB 30, whose SB is 15-20 points or so lower than SB 24's?
    "'Is this new BMW-designed sled the ultimate sledding machine for Langdon and Holcomb?' Leigh Diffey asked before the pair cruised to victory. I don’t know, but I know that sled is the ultimate Olympic Games product placement.." -- Jen Chaney

  3. #223
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    I guess the decision to give it to Rippon is based on the fact that Brown is more likely to be picked up for another event once someone drops out, being high on the SB list.

    But if Hicks is skating senior this season and is a real contender for that 3rd spot to Sochi, I don't understand why Cesario is picked over her instead (as much as I enjoy Cesario more). I doubt either is high on the SB list and IIRC Cesario should be higher on the list, but Hicks' Glacier Falls skate is much more promising than Cesario's Liberty skate and did place higher at Nationals by quite a significant margin.

  4. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    But if Hicks is skating senior this season and is a real contender for that 3rd spot to Sochi, I don't understand why Cesario is picked over her instead (as much as I enjoy Cesario more). I doubt either is high on the SB list and IIRC Cesario should be higher on the list, but Hicks' Glacier Falls skate is much more promising than Cesario's Liberty skate and did place higher at Nationals by quite a significant margin.
    Boggles the mind, doesn't it?

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    It is rather strange that US ladies are now stronger than men, yet more US men got sent than US ladies to the gp. I think the reason was the success of men (who otherwise might not get gp) who competed at 4cc and jw, and that made sure Josh, Brown and Dornbush all returned to gps. Otoh, jgpf participants like Wang and Miller did not move up, while jw participants like Cesario didnt medal or have high seasons best to earn themselves a spot. US ladies team ended up hurting for spots
    Last edited by jlai; 08-16-2013 at 03:07 PM.

  6. #226

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanfan1818 View Post
    What we do know from last year's practice is that Top 24 skaters who were otherwise eligible to be chosen were skipped in favor of skaters in the group of five who moved into the selection group after another skater was chosen out of it. Brown and Menshov are guaranteed no spots if last year's practice is any indication, but Menshov may be chosen for the RC TBA. All things being equal -- no quid pro quo or other consideration -- what incentive is there for a host to chose at Top 24 SB skater to compete against their own when the host can pick SB 30, whose SB is 15-20 points or so lower than SB 24's?
    Hosts tend to pick skaters who won't give their own skaters too much competition. That's why Mirai Nagasu, who was tops on the SB list for the entire series, didn't get a second invitation until NHK, at the very last minute. Japan didn't have to worry about medals for their top skaters.

  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by euterpe View Post
    Hosts tend to pick skaters who won't give their own skaters too much competition. That's why Mirai Nagasu, who was tops on the SB list for the entire series, didn't get a second invitation until NHK, at the very last minute. Japan didn't have to worry about medals for their top skaters.
    Nagasu couldn't have beeen one of the three subs at CoC, but Skate Canada could have given her the TBA spot they threw back in instead of choosing Shelepen, with direct flights available to Shanghai, and there were four opportunities to assign her to TEB before she finally got NHK. Several people here suggested that Nagasu was skipped last year until the last minute, because USFS knew Czisny wouldn't be ready, and it was an agreement to between the federations to have Nagasu take Czisny's spot. Nagasu took Shelepen's spot, and Czisny was withdrawn later, possibly so that the Japanese Fed didn't have to appoint an alternate for the last spot.

    In 2011-12, the hosts were not only forced to choose the Top 24 skaters, both from SB and WS lists, before going to SB 25-75, they had to choose from the top three, not five. I can see why they dropped the Top 24 WS criterion for getting a second ahead of Top 25-75 SB: there were often outliers, like Sarah Hecken, ranked 24th in WS in 2011-12, but SB #62, with an almost 27 point gap from SB 24.

    This year in Ladies, the Top 26 SB seniors got two in the initial selection, and the first group of five seniors is:

    • 27-Imai (WS 21, RC) (157.72)
    • 27-Cesario (SA)
    • 30-Popova
    • 31-K. Zhang (CoC)
    • 32-Lacoste (WS 20, SC) (155.08)


    Fortunately, in this Olympic year setting up for the post-Olympics GP, there's not much of a gap in points between them. There could be five more substitutions, with Gosviani, Hicks, Korobeynikova (WS 22, CoC), Glebova, and Lafuente subbing in one at a time, and that would still be only a 5+ point gap between #1 on the subs list and #9.
    "'Is this new BMW-designed sled the ultimate sledding machine for Langdon and Holcomb?' Leigh Diffey asked before the pair cruised to victory. I don’t know, but I know that sled is the ultimate Olympic Games product placement.." -- Jen Chaney

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    Hicks is probably doing JGP again and competed her senior programs at Glacier Falls like Polina Edmunds did, she'll skate as a senior at Nationals anyways and just because she is doing SLC as a senior, I don't think that disqualifies her from competing on the JGP because the SLC event is not an ISU championship. If this is the case it makes sense Cesario got the spot. It seems as though Czisny is not fully back yet and the last thing that girl needs is another injury.

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    I thought the point was to choose two skaters who can never beat Wagner....

    That being said, Cesario is so much more pleasant to watch than Hicks. Hicks' summer videos make me sad.

  10. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Hicks is probably doing JGP again and competed her senior programs at Glacier Falls like Polina Edmunds did.
    I think if Hicks were planning on doing the JGP, she'd have been assigned to one of the first ones. I'll be really surprised if she goes back there.

  11. #231
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    Also Adam versus Jason, maybe USFS was afraid Jason might beat Evan and surely they don't want that to happen? Not that Adam couldn't beat Evan as well, or that Jason would even be likely to beat Evan if he were selected, but we haven't seen Adam compete yet this summer meanwhile Jason has been putting up huge scores with programs with mistakes, doubled quads, and 3axels that don't look so great, meaning, if he were to skate clean, those scores would be massive, which could mean beating Evan which USFS probably wants to avoid.

  12. #232

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    Quote Originally Posted by mgobluegirl View Post
    I think if Hicks were planning on doing the JGP, she'd have been assigned to one of the first ones. I'll be really surprised if she goes back there.
    Maybe, but it could be that she was hoping to get SA but now that USFS has decided on Cesario she'll do the JGP after all. On the other hand, maybe she'll be content with a second senior B, although I think she'd earn more world ranking points, and get a season's best score, on the JGP.

  13. #233
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    If Hicks is skating senior, then she could get a SB score if she's assigned to Nebelhorn, since the years for which it is the Olympic Qualifier, the score goes towards the SB list.

    Of course, with a good placement at Nationals, if she doesn't make the Olympic team, she could also end up at 4C's, since, typically, top NA skaters don't make the journey to a 4C's in Asia (Taipei in 2014) so close to the Olympics, and the Team Event moves the start of the Olympics from the end of the schedule to before the Opening Ceremonies for the Ladies. With three US Ladies heading to Sochi, this year's GP assignments might not be as important in setting up for next year, unless those particular skaters do their best early in the season.
    Last edited by kwanfan1818; 08-17-2013 at 07:19 PM.
    "'Is this new BMW-designed sled the ultimate sledding machine for Langdon and Holcomb?' Leigh Diffey asked before the pair cruised to victory. I don’t know, but I know that sled is the ultimate Olympic Games product placement.." -- Jen Chaney

  14. #234

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    Quote Originally Posted by analia View Post
    I thought the point was to choose two skaters who can never beat Wagner....

    That being said, Cesario is so much more pleasant to watch than Hicks. Hicks' summer videos make me sad.
    If Wagner was so easily beatable by Cesario, maybe USFSA should consider whether they shouldn't send Cesario to the Worlds and Olympics instead of Wagner because if Wagner can't beat someone who skated junior last season, what will be her chance at Olympics amongst seniors?

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    I don't think the Hicks v. Cesario case regarding the SA 2013 TBA spot has anything to do with a potential "threat" to Ashley Wagner at the event.

    While Hicks can most certainly jump, her presentation, in-betweens and overall polish are average junior-level, and IMO not ready for the senior circuit. Cesario, on the other hand, is a lovely, more complete skater, and while maybe not as explosive of a jumper, is also an up-and-comer like Hicks. While both lovely in their own way, in terms of track record and judging, they can't hold a candle to Ashley, who on top of being USFSA's leading lady (as of my understanding), scores significantly higher in PCS and in her overall scores. While Ashley may not defend her SA title this coming fall, the probability of that has nothing to do with Hicks or Cesario, and eventually Cesario, being chosen to fill the spot--if a thread at SA is to come v. Ashley and the title, it will not come from Cesario.

    USFSA assigned the spot so a very well-seasoned junior, Cesario, who has grown out of junior ranks (I don't mean necessarily in terms of age, I mean just overall, IMO) to debut on the senior circuit and gain experience.

    In terms of the bigger picture, perhaps the USFSA is telling Courtney that she is not quite yet a contender for that third spot on the Olympic/World team, since those are both premier senior events. However, I'm not convinced they believe Cesario to be a contender for that third spot either; I just think it's about getting her out there. That said, she could skate very well at SA, pull a semi-Katelyn Osmond, and burst onto the senior scene and maybe change the musical chairs for those three spots leading up to the US Nationals. Time will tell!

  16. #236
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    Hicks was 4th at 2013 US Nationals -- 4th in the SP and 3rd in the FS -- a little over 10 points behind Wagner, but less than two points away from the bronze medal. Cesario finished in 8th place, more than 7 points behind Hicks.

    That guarantees nothing for this season, but if USFS were sending messages about Cesario's relative maturity compared to Hicks, who was .25 ahead of Cesario in PCS for the SP and less than 1.5 points behind Cesario in PCS in the FS, the US Nationals judges had a funny way of showing it.
    "'Is this new BMW-designed sled the ultimate sledding machine for Langdon and Holcomb?' Leigh Diffey asked before the pair cruised to victory. I don’t know, but I know that sled is the ultimate Olympic Games product placement.." -- Jen Chaney

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    I don't think Courtney is going back to JGP, nor do I think Samantha's assignment is a decree of Courtney's unworthiness. They could only pick one of the two (because for some reason its been determined several years ago that SA cannot be run without the presence of Caroline Zhang) so they went with the one who won Junior Worlds SP and put out stellar skates at Liberty two years running, who amazingly bounced back from being injured before Nationals 2 years in a row and having to withdraw to skate very well all last season. While it is very difficult to swallow the pewter medalist not getting an assignment (and really C Zhang's spot should have gone to her in the first place, that is a really bizarre assignment, sorry- and I don't dislike Caroline, but I think its just frustrating when the same skater gets the spot year after year to the expense of others unless its a K/G-S situation where they truly are the 5th or 6th best team and the only one who aren't high enough of the subs list to get it another way)- I don't find Samantha to be any less worthy. But hopefully the substitution list works out for Courtney...

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    Quote Originally Posted by haribobo View Post
    I don't think Courtney is going back to JGP, nor do I think Samantha's assignment is a decree of Courtney's unworthiness. They could only pick one of the two (because for some reason its been determined several years ago that SA cannot be run without the presence of Caroline Zhang) so they went with the one who won Junior Worlds SP and put out stellar skates at Liberty two years running, who amazingly bounced back from being injured before Nationals 2 years in a row and having to withdraw to skate very well all last season. While it is very difficult to swallow the pewter medalist not getting an assignment (and really C Zhang's spot should have gone to her in the first place, that is a really bizarre assignment, sorry- and I don't dislike Caroline, but I think its just frustrating when the same skater gets the spot year after year to the expense of others unless its a K/G-S situation where they truly are the 5th or 6th best team and the only one who aren't high enough of the subs list to get it another way)- I don't find Samantha to be any less worthy. But hopefully the substitution list works out for Courtney...
    I have to agree about Caroline. This will be her 3rd appearance at SA in the last 4 years. They need to save that spot for a younger more promising skater and not someone who most likely has reached her peak and isn't a contender anymore.

  19. #239

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    It must be some kind of 'gift' to her agent, Shep Goldberg, out of respect for his years with Michelle. That's all I can figure.
    Keeper of Nathalie Pechelat's bitchface.

  20. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Also Adam versus Jason, maybe USFS was afraid Jason might beat Evan and surely they don't want that to happen? Not that Adam couldn't beat Evan as well, or that Jason would even be likely to beat Evan if he were selected, but we haven't seen Adam compete yet this summer meanwhile Jason has been putting up huge scores with programs with mistakes, doubled quads, and 3axels that don't look so great, meaning, if he were to skate clean, those scores would be massive, which could mean beating Evan which USFS probably wants to avoid.
    Really? You think USFS is protecting Evan from Jason?
    Are you suggesting that Jason is more of a threat to Evan than Max who USFS selected to Skate America who has great 3As and 2 different 4 rotation quads?

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