6th - 10th
Outside the top 10
She won't qualify for the Russian Team
Last edited by caseyedwards; 05-10-2013 at 06:13 PM.
Lipnitskaia has even worse skating skills than Tuktamysheva, and her jump technique is pretty awful. I'm confident Tuktamysheva will outscore Lipnitskaia when they make similar errors over their programs.
Julia was usually beating Tuktamisheva last season even when Tuktamisheva was skating well. I see no reason she couldnt do it next season. Tuk also doesnt get high GOE on jumps, Julia does the 3-3s and hard jump layouts too, Julia's spins will score much higher, she normally gets higher PCS, and Tuk is becoming very inconsistent especialy bombing the SP often. Since Sotnikova is a favorite of the Russian fed it is quite likely Tuktamisheva will be the odd women out next year for the Oly team IMO. Although I could even see Sotnikova missing it before Lipnitskaia. I really dont see Julia missing the team. I also wouldnt be surprised if Leonova made a big comeback and made the team, possibly keeping both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva off it.
Is the majority betting against her qualifying? Couldn't she beat our two divas at Euros? The 9th and 10th place finishers at worlds are threatened by anyone who scores highly next season by any international panel, right? Even Leonova--if she scored high at a GP--might get another look. There is little reason to believe Leonova will score highly ever again, but a healthy Lipnikskaia is more likely to do just that. What are the reasons you believe she can't or likely won't beat Tuktamysheva or Sotnikova for selection?
Last edited by TheIronLady; 05-11-2013 at 06:05 AM.
I really think it's going to be a three way battle between Alena (YES - Leonova), Elizaveta and Adelina for those Olympic spots. It's all going to come down on who delivers when it counts.
She is talking about her hope to make the team, and we talk about a podium ?
If she makes the team, I guess she'll be happy with it, so will I. I don't see her in the top 5 at the Olympics, but I'm talking about her 2012-2013 skating. Maybe she'll improve a lot
Julia will probably be on the team but I do honestly think there are 6 girls with chances to make the team - Lipnitskaya, Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova, Leonova, Pogorilaya, and Korobeynikova. The last 3 obviously don't have very good chances at this point but I do think they still have a chance to make the team as all 3 have skated very well in the past. It's going to depend on the timing of puberty and adjustment issues for the 3 younger girls (Julia, Liza, Anna) and whether or not Leonova can make a comeback and if Korobeynikova can get back her hard content and both she and Sotnikova can develop consistency and not be headcase-y next season.
Ideally they want to go with the top two skaters from an international standpoint and those two are Adelina and Liza T. However, Julia did well in her debut last season but was plagued with injuries before taking silver at junior worlds.
I think Julia is the runner-up to Adelina and Liza T and if one of those two flub up, she'll probably step in. She has the ability to score in the top ten. Leonova took a nosedive this season so who knows what's going to happen to her. She'd have to kick some serious ass on the GP next season and win nationals in order to make up for the crap season she just had.
As for Pogorilaya and Korobeynikova, neither have the international credit needed to have a good chance to stay in the top 10 in Sochi. They're still too unknown so I don't think their chances are they great.
As of now I pick Adelina and Liza T with Julia as the alternate. We'll have to see where they are at the end of the GP...
^^I don't think anyone is a lock 100% completely, but Adelina and Liza T are the two favorites and they'll have to suck pretty badly not to make it on the team at this point.
Well I think Adelina and Liza T. are way overrated on this forum in general. I dont think they are in anyway as far ahead of the others as you are potraying them. Julia L. beat them many times in the last 18 months where they did not "suck pretty badly", and in fact had a better grand prix season than both, especialy Sotnikova last year, and of course wasnt eligible for Worlds and the chance to best the weak results of Adelina and Liza T. who didnt exactly meltdown there and still placed poorly and were not even close to getting 3 spots for Russia. Alena L. meanwhile has been 2nd and 4th at two of her Worlds this quad, even if she did poorly in her last outing and is coming off a very poor season. The way some in this thread talk about Adelina and Liza T. one would think they were gold medal contenders for Sochi, and not just two skaters who finished 9th and 10th at Worlds (with even one poster starting a thread that Sotnikova is a threat to Yu Na Kim, LOL).
I don't really see their performances at worlds and just them being at 2013 worlds as being such a powerful and overwhelming reason for them to be in sochi. So Liza and Adelina were at worlds and Julia wasn't so no matter what happens and his they skate Adelina and Liza must be in Sochi! Because Liza and Adelina were in the top 10 judges won't even care about Julia or Polina or Alena leonova! Because Liza and Adelina were in the top 10 if people make mistakes they could medal! Lol! So Liza and Adelina were at 2013 worlds! Who cares? Look at his they did there and if judges really cared and if they will care if they see them in Sochi!