Sasha really had the programs that year. They also showcased a good range of expression for her between the two, looking back at her career I think that 2006 was her best combination of SP/LP. Her PCS would've been higher than Arakawa's if clean in the LP and I think the judges were really on Sasha's side at that competition. It was a beautiful program. Both of them were actually.
Slutskaya's program had the energy, but she didn't have the style and elegance that Arakawa's and Cohen's programs had. I think that the podium would've been the exact same, but Sasha would've flipped with Arakawa. Triple/triple this/that, they all had 7 triples planned in that program and Sasha would've been in the 9's with a clean (and not a Sashaclean-tm, a real clean like that one Marshalls Robin Lake LP but with an even more gorgeous program/styling). Mao 4th, 5th Kwan ( Don't think I've jumped ship. She would've needed a 3/3 in the short, I think her long couldve, shoulda, woulda..)
Really this is one the hardest hypothetical clean events to imagine the final placings of. I guess that explains the wide variety of answers in the thread. Slutskaya is the only one who everyone has winning a medal, and more have her winning the gold in an all clean scenario than anyone else, with her lowest picks so far being bronze. Cohen has a huge range of placings given from 1st to 7th. I cant imagine how anyone thinks the judges would place a clean Cohen 7th but anyway. Kostner also has a huge range from 3rd to 8th. Arakawa ranges from 1st to 4th. Asada ranges from 1st to 5th picks so far. Kwan is one of the ones almost everyone seems to agree on, with everyone having her hovering around 5th in an all clean scenario.
The other funny thing though is as the event was skated from every prospective contenders by the others, it was a huge opportunity for almost everyone. Kwan for instance even though some of have coming as low as 7th in an all clean event, could have in fact won had she been there and skated a clean short, with a clean 6 and 7 triple long vs Shizuka's 5 triple one, or atleast would have won silver. As it was skated lots of people had chances, or potential chances had they been there, regardless how an all clean scenario goes.
- Rep Power
Not that i think Kwan would have done well in Turin, especialy in an everyone was clean competition, but why is the 3-3 in the short even important. Nobody who mattered even attempted one in either program.
Originally Posted by Karpenko
People are going on the idea that Kwan was so deficient under COP that she would have needed more triple jumps to make up the points compared to other skaters. I'm not sure if I necessarily agree with that because people don't really have an idea of what a abled-bodied Kwan would have scored with a "clean" performance of a program that was COP-friendlier than the ones she had in Moscow 2005. I think that's why there's a consensus of putting her in the middle, because that seems to be the safest assumption (not too high, but not too low).
Originally Posted by chanunderrated
Of course we do know that she couldn't do triple axels the way Mao could, or huge 3/3 jumps the way Yu Na Kim could. We also know that her 3/3 capability was close to nothing in the three years preceding Torino since she didn't even attempt them, but how much of that was due to her injury, I don't know.
I think a healthy Kwan would have upped her spiral and spins and perhaps include a difficult entrance into her 2axel and/or her 3sal. Add in her 3toe/3toe along with a 3flip/2loop/2toe and 3lutz/2toe..for a seven triple LP and she could have been reached top 5. Maybe higher but not if others landed harder 3/3s or 3axels and were clean.
Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa
Has there ever been a ladies event where all the top contenders were clean. Imagining so is purely a fantasy and pointless. Even the 2010 Olympics which people say is the best womens event ever only 2 of the top 7 or 8 were totally clean.
Speculating on Sasha skating cleanly is even more LOL as she proved herself completely incapable of a clean long program. Sasha does 5 triples and that is clean for her.
Maybe we should then ask, what would the top 10 at the 2006 Olympics ladies even been if all on the list had been there and fell on every jump (assuming they were rotated)?
Originally Posted by Gabybackhand
Yan LIU would be Olympic champion !
Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa
Michelle would have won , she had her levels up for the selectoun committee when,saw her. She,woukd,have,did her triple toe triple toe plus the triple double doybke lije now all d po ung.
Irina would have been second
Shizuka woukd have been third. All,was world chamops.
Also michelle edge out sasha at nationals for title.
Not to mention they wad oldest at,time of 26,27,24.
Sasha would have been 4th. Stating look your time.mught be in 4 yamears,.olus mediawoukdhave.paid more attention due to medal at,eorkds.
Carolina kostner. Miki ando. Mao yuna would have tovwait to develop their oc armore of a mature level.
Carolina, mao . Yuna , miki.,
You wait your turn. You might have jumos but you are,too,yoyng,too,have the maturity pull off the program pc.
Look back,and,she thd,difference in pulling off the program,back,tgan,as,now.
The interpretation of musuc back than,for the above named skatets is different now than,then.
You,can tell what they are trying to interprst and get across,to judges is different now back,than.
At 15,16 couldnt pull it off.
made,the motions but not yhe program.
Tara in 1998 skateddid the motions at,times but not the program.
She was too young to fully understand . Make publuc and judges see the way you feel skate,the interpretation of the music your,feeling.
Michelle got it in,1996which was remarakable.
Irina by 2006,
Sasha after on soi. Sasha skated to rigid to music but bendable.
shizuka got it at the olympics, nb not pressure watch me skate,tovthis,music and see it the way I do.
Miki. Yuna.,carolina kostner. Mao had to develop it.,
In essence wait your turn grow up a little
I'm surprised so many people have Yuna ranked so high. Remember that at this point, Mao was far superior than Yuna on almost all aspects. Yuna, I believe, barely eeked out a 50 in PCS in the LP at Junior Worlds and Yuna had stamina issues at this point in her career. If everyone skated to their potential, she would probably be 9th/10th on this list.
exactly! At that time, judges had seen her very low;even much lower than Suguri. Even if TES was highest her score would not be able to belong to 1-5
Originally Posted by smarts1
There are too many variables to guess with total certainty the exact positions for me. First off clean can have a broad definition, what were the skaters even planning, on many of them I dont even know. There are alot of skaters amongst this generation who could do the 3-3s but often did not even attempt them, like Arakawa and Slutskaya especialy, so guessing what their clean would have been is hard to define. It is not like Kim when you KNOW she will attempt the 3-3s everytime, and Asada who you know will attempt the 3axel each time. Arakawa and Slutskaya skating cleanly with 3-3s would be certain to go 1-2, as their PCS would kill Asada and their TES would badly beat Sasha. With no 3-3s it would be close between them and a clean Asada (with her 3axels and 3-3s) and Cohen (low GOEs on jumps, but 7 triples, a triple-triple combination/sequence, and strong non jumps, and high PCS).
I will just put them into groups:
1-4: Slutskaya, Arakawa, Cohen, Asada. I dont know the exact order but these would have been the top 4 in one order or another for sure. That is if they all skated cleanly, even if everyone else did.
5-6: Kostner, Kim. These would have been the next 2 finishers in whatever order.
7-11: Kwan, Suguri, Sokolova, Meissner, Rochette. Then these would have rounded out the top 11 or 12 skaters in one order or another, if they skated cleanly.
I don't think Cohen had to wait her turn in 06. She had essentially done that in SLC where she was fourth. She had been right up there with Slutkskaya, Kwan, Suguri, Arakawa in the 03-06 quad. By 2010 she was well past her prime.
Originally Posted by query5
- Rep Power
Swap Kwan with Kim and I agree w/ you. On second thought, I would have 4-6: Kwan, Kostner and Asada. I still feel Asada at an Olympic competition (as opposed to a GP event or even a Senior Worlds) would've been held down in PCS or even GOE. Her skating in '05 was overall still quite juniorish.
Originally Posted by mustafinabars
Besides Kwan, another hi-profile skater who missed Torino was Volchkova, who was forcibly retired after '06 Euros due to injury. She was on the comeback trail and I wonder if she would've cracked the top 10 if she had been healthy ...
I am guessing that people who did not like the actual results are the majority participating in this hypothetical. I would be more realistic and try not to credit people for elements they rarely or never did cleanly or beautifully in practice. Slutskaya was looking ragged and sloppy in practice on certain elements even when she hit them, just like she was in the actual competition. In my opinion, good hypothetical judging should factor this in as inevitable. Arakawa might have gotten under-rotations had she done her full repertoire. I think some posters are being unrealistic to suppose otherwise. How much credence I would give these theories would depend on what observers saw in the practices at the Olympics and the competitions going into the Olympics.
The only thing I feel confident about is that a clean Asada a la GPF would score highly and in the medals.
Last edited by TheIronLady; 05-06-2013 at 06:56 AM.
Well most of us never got to see the practices. However by early 2006 it was already evident Irina was no longer the same skater as fall 2004, winter 2005, or even fall 2005 anymore.
- Rep Power
I know--all the times she tried. She could just never get the hang of it!
Originally Posted by museksk8r
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Kwan's 2006 program supposed to contain 6 triples: two 3Lz, two 3F, one 3S and one 3T?
I thought I had read reports from the selection committee (or maybe just fake posts) that those were her planned elements.
I'm not sure she'd be able to hit level 4 on her layback (no Biellman) or footwork (rare at the time) but certainly the spiral sequence and combination spin were within her reach.
Remember, back in 2006 there were 4 spins and a spiral sequence, so programs were chock full. I'm just not sure Michelle would've been able to hit the highest levels on them unlike say, Shizuka or Sasha.
What could've been ...
Mao didn't have a 3-3 in her FS that year did she? IIRC at the GPF, she did 3f-3lo in the SP but then in the FS she had one 3a and all 3 of her combos in the 2nd half, but none of them were 3-3s. So I'm not sure she'd have as much of a cushion on some of these ladies as others are thinking. If Shizuka and Irina did a 3-3 in the SP and one in the FS, that puts them at about equal with Mao, if they did two 3-3s in the FS, that would put them ahead of Mao which combined with higher PCS would mean they would likely win out overall. Yuna had great quality jumps but the spins and performance were not that great yet, plus she was only doing 3-2 in her SP and one 3-3 in her FS, so Kimmie with a 3-3 in her SP and two in her FS (even though they'd never get ratified today, they would have then) and similar PCS would have likely edged her out. Ando not entirely sure because that was before her overall so she was very rough around the edges from an artistic standpoint and there was the lip and bad programs. Kostner had the hometown working for her and had 3-3 combos and her speed helped her get good PCS, even then. My guess is the results would have been something like: