2003 U.S Nationals
2004 U.S Nationals
2005 U.S Nationals
2010 U.S Nationals
none of the above
"If I agree well it's just to appease you 'cause I don't remember what were fighting for..." - Sarah McLachlan
Wow. Interesting Thread.
Actually, it would have been hard for Sasha to win a lot of events.
2004 Nationals Michelle Skated out of her mind
2004 Worlds Shizuka did the same
2005 Worlds- Same
2010 Nationals. Hmm. Interesting. I don't think she had a chance. Flatt was the heir apparent.
In 2008, Flatt went clean and finished second to someone who fell.
In 2009, Flatt went clean and finished second to someone who fell.
So, in 2010, when Flatt went clean, there was not way on God's green earth that the judges weren't going to let her win.
I don't think so. In 2002 & 2003 she was still perceived as having less than championship caliber edging and stroking. She was slower than ISU judges like in their champions and skated on flats a lot. She worked on those weaknesses and from 2004 -2006 got stronger and faster. The edges on her spirals and stroking were noticeably better. So I think pretty much anything from 2004 or maybe 2005 on was "hers to lose" except US Nationals which would have gone to Kwan as long as she competed regardless what anyone else did.Some have said every event from 2003-2006 was Sasha's to win or lose.
Here is a really, REALLY, non-technical overview of my speculations.
2003 U.S Nationals -- Kwan was simply too good. Sasha could not have won even had she been amazing instead of falling and stumbling about in her blue and pee yellow dress.
2003 Worlds -- Again, Kwan, reaching a new level of sophistication and technical confidence (certainly an unexpected improvement from her 2002 efforts), was just out of her league.
2004 GPF -- Sasha would have won. The original Swan Lake was so good.
2004 U.S Nationals -- She would deserve to win clean, but the fraudulent judging at US Nationals would go for Kwan anyway.
2004 Worlds -- Since Kwan was not a factor at worlds in Dortmund, a clean Cohen would have been unstoppable--even with the scars that Wagner made on Tarasova's Swan Lake.
2005 U.S Nationals -- If she did the Zueva beautiful Nutcracker Suite program without any falls, she might still have lost. The USFSA had a lot of interest in helping Kwan get a record breaking win.
2005 Worlds -- Slutskaya received such incredible point totals and components scores for ragged programs that I don't know if regaining the points lost from Sasha's mistakes would be enough. Does anyone have a more technical analysis to add?
2006 Olympics -- The judging looked in her favor after the SP scores. Her Romeo and Juliet was a classic, and had it been clean Arakawa would be the Olympic silver medalist. I feel bad thinking about this, because Arakawa owes a lot to other ladies' mistakes. I have such respect for her that I wish she could have won at a medal or two at a worlds-- or won a GPF or something--where her rivals did not kind of mess up.
2006 Worlds -- This is a no brainer. Kimmie was not up to the job against a clean or cleaner Cohen
2010 U.S Nationals -- If she skated less like someone who hadn't eaten in a long time, she could have placed first. Mirai and Rachael were more rushed/sloppy.
Last edited by TheIronLady; 04-15-2013 at 04:28 AM.
For "fun", the marks of the top two skaters in the ladies' event at 2004 US Nats:
Cohen (first skater of the final group)
Technical merit: (1) 5.7 (2) 5.7 (3) 5.8 (4) 5.7 (5) 5.6 (6) 5.6 (7) 5.8 (8) 5.7 (9) 5.7
Presentation: (1) 6.0 (2) 5.8 (3) 5.8 (4) 5.8 (5) 5.9 (6) 5.8 (7) 5.8 (8) 5.8 (9) 5.8
Kwan (fourth skater of the final group)
Technical merit: (1) 5.9 (2) 5.9 (3) 5.9 (4) 5.9 (5) 5.8 (6) 5.8 (7) 5.8 (8) 5.9 (9) 5.8
Presentation: (1) 6.0 (2) 6.0 (3) 6.0 (4) 6.0 (5) 6.0 (6) 5.9 (7) 6.0 (8) 5.9 (9) 6.0
Judge #7 had Kwan and Cohen tied on the technical merit mark.
Judge #1 had Kwan and Cohen tied for presentation.
All of the judges had Kwan in first place in the free skate and overall.
All of the judges had Cohen in second place in the free skate and overall.
As to 2004 Worlds, I doubt a clean landing at the final 3sal would have made the difference. She didn't even beat Kwan in the free. I think Arakawa would have been the clear winner of the night even if Cohen was clean. And given how Kwan skated AFTER being disturbed by some streaker, and it was the last Worlds with 6.0s, the judges was always going to shower her with 6.0s regardless of what Cohen did. Wagner Lake was not 6.0 worthy at all. (Neither was Tosca but Kwan's interpretation and presence very much made up for it)
After 2004 Sasha could have won everything until she retired; however she was NEVER clean so it is moot point. Really a waste of what could have been a standout career except 2010 Nationals. It was already over at that point.
"Marge, if you're going to get mad at me every time I do something stupid, then I guess I'm just going to have to stop doing stupid things!" - Homer Simpson in the Mr. Plow episode
Sasha's "basic edges and stroking" would not have held her back from anything if she would have just stopped falling.
I agree that judges seemed to want to give titles to Sasha, only from 2003-2004 season. But she never did enough to receive the high marks judges wanted to give her, lol.
I think they wanted to give her all the titles (Nationals, Worlds, GPF, Olympics) in the 03-04 season and 05-06 seasons both. Not so sure about the 2002-2003 season, and not really the 2004-2005 season either (although if she skated well she would have had to win Nationals this year as Kwan's LP was nothing great). As you said she could never justify it though with her performances. I find this poll offensive in many ways as it almost implies the winners of various events should feel lucky that Sasha "never skates clean" didnt skate clean.
Sasha definitely would have won the 2006 Olympic Gold had she landed those 2 jumps and done as planned. Her first jump was supposed to be a triple lutz-double toe-double loop combo so 4 points (3 for the -GOE for a fall and 1 additional for falling) + 2.8 points (the value of the double toe-double loop). Her 2nd jump miss was 2.86. So now 9.66 total. Add as much as up to 4 points (an average of .5 more on all PCS categories as a generous guess) and maybe of jump GOE (she usually gets almost none and her flutz is negative usually) and she might gain up to 14 points, while she lost by only 8. However that is Sasha doing 7 triples and Shizuka doing only 5, when Shizuka is capable of not only 7 herself but with triple-triples to boot. Why assume Sasha who never does clean LPs going clean and not make the same consideration for other skaters who actually have and can.