View Poll Results: Which 2 U.S men will make Olympic team

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  • Aaron

    86 74.14%
  • Miner

    9 7.76%
  • Dornbush

    18 15.52%
  • Miner

    6 5.17%
  • Lysacek

    30 25.86%
  • Abbott

    45 38.79%
  • Farris

    25 21.55%
  • Brown

    8 6.90%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by johndockley92 View Post
    Percentage odds IMO:

    Without Lysacek
    Aaron: 40%
    Abbott: 35%
    Miner: 5%
    Farris: 5%
    Rippon: 5%
    Dornbush: 4%
    Brown: 4%
    Johnson: 2%

    With Lysacek

    Lysacek: 40%
    Aaron: 25%
    Abbott: 20%
    Miner: 3%
    Farris: 3%
    Rippon: 3%
    Dornbush: 3%
    Brown: 2%
    Johnson: 1%
    You're giving guys like Rippon, Dornbush and Miner - guys who have been to WC - only 2-4 percentage points more than guys like Johnson, who - with all due respect - has been a perennial cellar dweller at Nationals until this year? Even this year he was pretty low after the short, but moved up with a fantastic freeskate.

    I'd give some of Lysacek and Abbott's percentage points to Miner, Farris, Dornbush and Rippon; I'd even throw a few points at Brown. Lysacek's biggest advantage is his mental game; he rarely chokes; still his jumping abilities are totally unproven at this point, having been out of competition for three season. Meanwhile Abbott has totally proven himself...to be totally unreliable.
    "Marge, if you're going to get mad at me every time I do something stupid, then I guess I'm just going to have to stop doing stupid things!" - Homer Simpson in the Mr. Plow episode

  2. #42

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    Although it defies logic, my heart says - Abbott for one of the two spots. The second spot goes to Max Aaron because he can land the jumps (unless he has a totally down season next year). Lysacek may not be a bad choice if none of the youngsters deliver. He won't win the OGM but he can have a respectable placement because he does not choke.

  3. #43
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    Aaron, Lysacek

  4. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by aftershocks View Post
    What is it you dislike the most about Dornbush, misskarne?
    Well, for starters, I don't dislike Dornbush at all, I never said that. I'm just puzzled as to why his name seems to keep popping up as an Olympic team contender - with some fans in here rating him higher than Miner! I find his skating a little zzzzz but all credit to him for going for a two-quad program, skating after Max at Nats can't have been easy!

  5. #45
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    I actually ended up voting for Aaron and Dornbush, even though I gave him such low odds. I see him defying those odds and making the OLY team!

  6. #46
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    I am honestly surprised Lysacek has as many votes on this poll as he does.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    Well, for starters, I don't dislike Dornbush at all, I never said that. I'm just puzzled as to why his name seems to keep popping up as an Olympic team contender - with some fans in here rating him higher than Miner! I find his skating a little zzzzz but all credit to him for going for a two-quad program, skating after Max at Nats can't have been easy!
    I think there are a lot of people in Ricky's corner, and Ross has his supporters too. I've heard some fans say the same thing about Ross that you are saying about Ricky, but I disagree with you and with them. I happen to like both guys, but I'm probably a bit more partial to Ross. I kinda felt initially that Ricky was being rated higher, perhaps that was because his break-out lp was such a success. But I think they both have strengths that overall tend to equal out. Ricky and Ross made a splash on the senior scene at the same time in 2011, although in that season, Ross was skating on the senior GP and Ricky on the JGP, and Ricky later won the JGPF. And, of course that was the season Ricky's Sherlock Holmes suited him so well and he was skating with a lot of confidence. Ricky has had bad luck the past two seasons, but his showing this year at 4CC demonstrates that he has some respect with the judges. Ricky did the best he was able at Nationals this year, but he was under the weather. Sure there are no excuses in figure skating.

    As both Ross and Ricky have been trying to incorporate quads, their consistency has suffered, despite Ross being overall a lot more consistent until recently. I think some fans see Ricky as a more well-rounded skater, but I enjoy watching them both and Ross has kind of grown on me. They both need to further develop, and I just feel trying to work in training the quad while at the same time dealing with the pressures of the spotlight and also working on discovering your own unique style is a lot to handle, especially in the U.S. field where there is so much depth and skaters don't have the luxury of time to improve at the international level. The young up-and-comers tend to have a small window where if they don't shine quickly, their prospects are up and down (e.g., Adam, Stephen Carriere, Brandon, and now Ricky and Ross -- in addition, Armin, Doug and Keegan have had very few international opportunities).

    Once again, in hindsight, I felt more-so in 2011 that USFS made a mistake not sending Jeremy Abbott to Worlds for momentum, continuity and veteran presence. He'd had a good showing on the GP that season, and so scoring at Nationals IMO was not a well-considered result. By sending Jeremy, it would have taken some of the pressure off Ryan and Ricky (and Ross would not have been set back either from having had a satisfying Nationals and being motivated for the next season). Perhaps then, there might have been that third spot still available for Ross to make the World team in 2012.

    Even though Ross and Ricky performed well at 2011 Worlds, neither had quads and they were newbies whom the judges did not exactly treat fairly. And of course Ryan was not highly regarded internationally and he didn't perform to his best level. Therefore the third spot was lost, and in the international men's field, it's gonna be tough getting it back.

    Fortunately for Jason and Josh, they are very good at an early age and are receiving some early widespread public recognition while at the same time being able to gain a lot of junior international experience before having to make it or break it on the senior international scene. I think that's a good thing, although timing-wise Josh and Jason will surely not want to remain the young guys in-waiting for too long. But again, that only adds to the pressure for slightly older top contending guys, as I said.

    All that to say the upshot is: If Ricky comes back strong with more consistent quads, he'll have just as much opportunity to make the Olympic team as any of the top U.S. guys. What makes you think differently?

  8. #48

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    Quote Originally Posted by aftershocks View Post
    All that to say the upshot is: If Ricky comes back strong with more consistent quads, he'll have just as much opportunity to make the Olympic team as any of the top U.S. guys. What makes you think differently?
    I don't think any differently. It just amuses me is all. I personally didn't see an Olympic skater in him this season. But each to his own and I'll be more than happy to see him come back strong next year and make Nationals a true bloodbath.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cheylana View Post
    \

    I'd give some of Lysacek and Abbott's percentage points to Miner, Farris, Dornbush and Rippon; I'd even throw a few points at Brown. Lysacek's biggest advantage is his mental game; he rarely chokes; still his jumping abilities are totally unproven at this point, having been out of competition for three season. Meanwhile Abbott has totally proven himself...to be totally unreliable.
    Agree. Barring a disaster (and those do happen) Aaron is probably as close to a lock as you could get. Beyond that it'll come down to Miner, Farris, see how Dornbush and Rippon look (this was the first Nationals where I rather liked the latter)...I think Brown and Johnson are looking at 2018. I am not a hater, but I don't see Lysacek really coming back, though if anyone can do it, he might. And I agree about Abbot. When he's on, he's on, but too many times he's gotten to the big show and his brain got the better of him. Unless he absolutely destroys the rest of the field, I think this year's placement was a message they're done with him.

  10. #50
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    I think Aaron's consistency on 4S will help him a lot next season. However at nationals 2014, Aaron will have a big target on his back and i wonder if he can stand the pressure. I hope he can

    I hope Abbott doesnt place 2nd only because even at his best he will not be in top 5. Therefore i hope someone like Josh Farris gets to Olympics so that he is on the senior scene as long as possible so he'll be more prepared for 2018 olympics.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    Well, for starters, I don't dislike Dornbush at all, I never said that. I'm just puzzled as to why his name seems to keep popping up as an Olympic team contender - with some fans in here rating him higher than Miner! I find his skating a little zzzzz but all credit to him for going for a two-quad program, skating after Max at Nats can't have been easy!
    Miner I think is sort of like the Rachael Flatt of the men. While his achievements are great, I almost feel like he's over-achieved his potential in a way. Top 6 in the World as a goal was a bit delusional IMO, his jumps just aren't that high quality and he's way too stiff. He was perfect at Worlds 2 years ago and was 11th - that was before quad mayhem and before the international field was so strong. His edging is good and the spins are strong but there's really nothing else there to push him to the next level, and when he doesn't hit everything cleanly he's definitely a 2nd tier skater. On the skating lesson podcast they were even saying they wondered if Ross told his coaches that his goal was top 6 because they thought that was seriously overreaching, and even went so far to say that they could see him being out of the top 6 at Nationals next year even. I think they are kind of on target. Ross makes a few mistakes at Worlds and gets totally buried into 14th place. Without a technique overall I think he's going nowhere fast and could be headed for a Mroz-like downward trajectory. Also considering his age I have no idea why he waited so long to start training a quad. Brezina, Fernandez, Amodio, etc. are around the same age but a few years ahead of him in terms of technical mastery, so for now Miner is playing catch-up and unless he has some kind of major breakthrough I fear that is going to be the name of the game for as long as he continues.

    Dornbush is inconsistent but I don't feel like he's a 2nd tier skater, or at least he has the potential to move into the top echelon internationally if he can put it all together. He has better jump technique than Miner and is much freer in his movement and more animated in his performance. Plus he's had the quad in his arsenal for longer and the 3a too, and also can make mistakes and still score/place pretty well which Miner clearly does not have the luxury of doing (except maybe at US Nats thanks to inflated PCS).

  12. #52
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    I only voted Aaron.
    Have no idea at this point which one of a few other men has a better chance to go to Sochi. Last year after Finlandia, I thought Dornbush would become the US male skater no. 1 but he didn't even make the podium at Nationals. Abbott has the components on his side but he's been rather weak technically this past season. The quad is not a reliable jump yet for either Miner or Farris and none of them can come even close to Abbott on the components mark.

    Lysacek - Has anyone seen him or heard of him practicing lately? Methink Evan would be supposed to have resumed his training by now if he were really serious about competing.

  13. #53
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    pinky, your latest post is spewing out a lot of stuff Dave and Jenny are erroneously dismissive of about Ross, in addition to your own perceptions. I mainly agree that Ross at this point needs to regroup and especially to loosen up and define his style on the ice. Perhaps taking some dance and movement classes would help Ross.

    In regard to Ross waiting this long to train quads, I don't think that's a valid critique -- you could say that about a lot of U.S. guys. And none of us know for sure that many haven't been training quads for awhile, but only started competing with them recently. The other clear factor is that Ross and Ricky both were fortunately or unfortunately thrust upon the senior international scene fairly quickly in 2011 without the back-up of a strong veteran presence on the U.S. team, and they were harshly/ unfairly judged for laying down solid performances.

    I think it's commendable that Ross committed to consistently putting the quad in both his programs this season. That's the only way to get used to doing them, and hopefully to master them.

    I think a lot of people err in selling Ross short, and Ricky too for that matter. It's pretty cool that Meryl and Charlie as well as his other teammates are so supportive of Ross. From my perception, Ross is an outstanding young man with a strong character. I like his coaches, Mark and Peter too, and I hope they are able to regroup together, think outside the box and come back with something special next season, when Nationals will take place in their own backyard.

  14. #54
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    That's true the homecrowd could work in Ross's favor next year. He has a lot of fans in the Boston area. He doesn't do much for me but he does have potential and has the goods to be a factor when he nails everything like we saw at NHK. I think he could definitely make the team I just don't see him as a likely medal threat at the World level in the future - but if Lysacek can win the OGM then who knows, I didn't think Reynolds was going anywhere either then he won 4CC in a deep field and was 5th at Worlds after actually getting judged fairly so Ross could surprise. I think I would admire him more too if he could address his weaknesses like the stiff arms and upper body and the muscled, swingy technique jumps. His spins and edges have improved a lot over the past couple of seasons though so there is hope that he will improve in these areas as well. Mostly I just find him a bit bland and feel that Farris can already match or exceed him in all areas (except for maybe speed where many lesser skaters can beat Josh) despite being 4 years younger, so for that reason I feel like Farris is maybe a better "investment" if that makes sense because he is significantly younger but developmentally at about the same place in terms of technical and artistic/PCS development, so there is more hope for the future. Idk.

    Richard I think is really underrated by a lot of fans but I do agree it would help his case if he could start skating clean or at least close to clean more often. He's gotten a bit of a headcase rep, and he has been inconsistent, but the issue with the warped boots and ankle injury and flu at Nats gives me hope that maybe the issue isn't between his ears and that he can actually get it together and regain his 2010-2011 form, but with quads. I'm more hopeful of his chances to bounce-back or gain consistency than I am for someone like Abbott because 1.) Abbott's age is working against him and I think we're seeing signs his body is starting to poop out on him, which is bad news especially with the quad being so important right now and 2.) Abbott has been inconsistent/headcasey for a lot longer than Dornbush has and though he too has had a fair share of injuries and boot problems too, there have been plenty of times when he failed to deliver despite being presumably perfectly healthy, or healthy enough to have not mentioned an injury/illness/equipment problem of any sort. So we will see. Dornbush also needs to work on refining his movements and posture/carriage, but that is not so difficult to address, and I do think he has a distinct style among the current crop of American guys which can play in his favor. Most of the other guys are classical in style, or really artsy-fartsy, then Max is like a dynamo, but Ricky is different, more animated, charismatic, and character-driven in his performances compared to the others and I like this about him. His programs are usually unique and set to music that isn't horribly overused or generic. So we shall see.

  15. #55
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    I'm biased: I skate with Ross Miner. I know how he trains. He will hit his peak at just the right time to make the Olympics. He has the right frame of mind to do it.

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    I'd love for the team to be Miner and Aaron.

    No idea who it will be though...

  17. #57
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    I am going to remake this poll in November or December and add onto it Mahbanoozadeh, Weir, Rippon, and Johnson to it as you might as well have everyone of note. However if anyone makes a somewhat decent impact I would add them and take out 1 or 2 of those.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    That's true the homecrowd could work in Ross's favor next year. He has a lot of fans in the Boston area. He doesn't do much for me but he does have potential and has the goods to be a factor when he nails everything like we saw at NHK. I think he could definitely make the team I just don't see him as a likely medal threat at the World level in the future - but if Lysacek can win the OGM then who knows, I didn't think Reynolds was going anywhere either then he won 4CC in a deep field and was 5th at Worlds after actually getting judged fairly so Ross could surprise. I think I would admire him more too if he could address his weaknesses like the stiff arms and upper body and the muscled, swingy technique jumps. His spins and edges have improved a lot over the past couple of seasons though so there is hope that he will improve in these areas as well. Mostly I just find him a bit bland and feel that Farris can already match or exceed him in all areas (except for maybe speed where many lesser skaters can beat Josh) despite being 4 years younger, so for that reason I feel like Farris is maybe a better "investment" if that makes sense because he is significantly younger but developmentally at about the same place in terms of technical and artistic/PCS development, so there is more hope for the future. Idk.
    When Ross is left to his own devices, his programs are much more creative and musical. He plays guitar and has a great musical sense. The problem is that his coaches do not have any musical sense whatsoever and for the past few years, he has deferred to them and his programs have not been that interesting and the music has been uninspiring. All those who train with his coaches use the same rehashed music that just gets passed around from one skater to another--and the music tends to be uninteresting, bombastic, and nothing that would ever inspire movement. I swear that he has made it as far as he has in spite of his coaches.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by VarBar View Post

    Lysacek - Has anyone seen him or heard of him practicing lately? Methink Evan would be supposed to have resumed his training by now if he were really serious about competing.
    I believe him. Ari Zakarian said, Lysa had quad, and he also said he was in good shape, then Evan is injured.
    Last edited by lala; 04-08-2013 at 09:27 PM.

  20. #60
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    Ross Miner could do a lot better if he had a coaching change. He's been with his current coaches for about 10 years--since he was intermediate, I think. I watch them at the rink and I don't see them as a good fit any more. The choreographer that his coaches bring in isn't doing him any favors, either. Sadly, I don't think the split will happen.

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