1. I don't believe Lysacek will be a real contender if he does show up, nor do I think he'll show up.
2. No one is a lock. I remember thinking Abbott was a lock in 2010/2011. He had just finished 5th in Torino, won medals at both his GP events (the only other American skater to do that was Brandon Mroz) and the American men weren't that strong - recalling that Dornbush (and Aaron and Messing and Farris and Brown) were competing as juniors and Miner was coming off an injury earlier in 2010. Even with Bradley's return, there wasn't much competition for the title. That he ended up fourth floored me. The competition is tighter now (all those juniors are now seniors internationally, for one thing) and Abbott seems to be in a similar position to Nagasu - that he'll have to skate out of skin to really be considered.
3. I voted for Aaron (he has reliable quads, which means his PCS will be higher than he deserves, thus his scores) and Farris. Though it wouldn't surprise me if Miner snuck through. I don't get Dornbush, think Rippon's day has passed. Brown's a darkhorse, but the stars would REALLY have to align.