View Poll Results: Would Evan have won 2010 Olympics even had everyone skated clean

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  • yes, especialy with a quad

    11 9.02%
  • yes, but not without a quad

    7 5.74%
  • no

    104 85.25%
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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by skateboy View Post
    Ah, how quickly we forget. Based on the fall comps before Olys, Oda was heavily favored to challenge Plush for the gold. He was landing 4-3s. Of course, he had a disastrous Olys and didn't even try a quad. But at his best, yes, he could have beaten Evan.
    Oda did a clean short at the Olympics and got an 84.85, a so soish score which I thought was too low, and an indication of his pecking order with the judges (just as Weir`s SP score for his clean short also was). He would have needed a 173.5 range score in the long to beat Lysacek which was something like 13 points above his PB at that point (and the best he is capable without a quad is probably more like 160ish).

    I havent forgotten anything. Oda did do well in the fall, as he often does, but a bunch of skaters were either not even skating or not skating well yet at that point (Plushenko, Lambiel, Chan, Takahashi, Joubert), so the true guage of where he stood was a YTB sort of thing. I still did think he was one of the major contenders in a very open mens event before the Games, but he already all but wrote off his own chances to beat Evan by not even attempting a quad at the Games. Oda doesnt score highly enough in PCS to have a hope of beating Evan without a quad and he didnt plan or attempt one in either program, so based on that it wouldnt matter how he skated. Hypothetically had he done a quad-triple in both programs and skated perfectly maybe a chance, but I am not going to speculate that when he wasnt even willing to try one. To each their own.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I still did think he was one of the contenders in a very open mens event before the Games, but he already all but wrote off his own chances to beat Evan by not even attempting a quad at the Games. Oda doesnt score highly enough in PCS to have a hope of beating Evan without a quad and he didnt plan or attempt one in either program, so based on that it wouldnt matter how he skated. Hypothetically had he done a quad-triple in both programs and skated perfectly maybe a chance, but I am not going to speculate that when he wasnt even willing to try one.
    But that's my point. Had Oda done all of his content, I believe he would've beaten Evan. He beat him a number of times before Olys.

    All the stars aligned just right for Evan in Vancouver, good for him. But no way was he a favorite for gold going in.
    "I hit him with my shoes... if he had given me the medal like I told him to, I wouldn't have had to hit him!" -- 8-year-old Rhoda Penmark in "The Bad Seed"

  3. #23
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    Well he was the reigning World Champion so that atleast made him one of the favorites. I dont like Evan or his skating but I am trying to be fair to him. I will admit though the last 5 years have been the most disaesterous time in the history of mens skating in general though I will conede. An average skater (but great competitor) like Evan winning Worlds and Olympics. Chan sliding on his butt to 2 World titles in a row. Hopefully the dark age of mens skating are nearing an end, and better things are on the horizon. It reminds me of the time in womens skating when the horrendous Rosalynn Sumners won Worlds and nearly the Olympics, the all time low point of womens skating.

  4. #24
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    Would Evan have won 2010 Olympics even had everyone skated cleanly?

    Is the earth a disc?

  5. #25
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    ... I will admit though the last 5 years have been the most disaesterous time in the history of mens skating in general though I will conede. An average skater (but great competitor) like Evan winning Worlds and Olympics. Chan sliding on his butt to 2 World titles in a row. Hopefully the dark age of mens skating are nearing an end, and better things are on the horizon...
    Amen to that!

  6. #26

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    Morozov was Oda's coach and he was smart with Oda not doing any quads and not attempting any in either program at any point of the season and then he wins 2 GP's and almost the GP FInal and Morozov strategy was working really well but then 84 in the SP for equal to Lysacek and Takahashi technical showed where he was!

    He was landing quads in practice but smart coaches were not allowing any quads to be done at all. They weren't dumb. THey didn't want to risk no points. Zero points was very possible.
    Last edited by caseyedwards; 04-05-2013 at 07:16 AM.

  7. #27
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    My first thought was that Takahashi would have won if he skated clean, but then another poster reminded me of the fact that Takahashi lost to Evan by 11 points. So I have no idea. lol.

  8. #28

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    clean for takahashi doesn't only mean making the quad go from no points to 9.8 but no UR on triple toe and then he already has 11 to win. He also got 2 exclamation points for edges which knocked off GOE.

    quad 9.8 from 0
    3F+3T 9 from 5

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Lambiel not only didnt have the triple axel but he didnt even have quad-triple or triple-triple combinations. At the end of every jump he only did doubles.
    He had 3F+3T and he was the only one who had two quads in LP.

  10. #30

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    Why are we having so many 'back in time' polls? Must be creeping boredom of the coming off-season!
    Prosperity makes friends, adversity tries them. – Publilius Syrus

  11. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by caseyedwards View Post

    Lambiels base value was higher than chan lysacek plushenko.

    lambiel did 3F+3T
    Lambiel's base value in the SP was 36.20 (2A, 4T+2T, 3F). Plushenko's base value in SP was 44.10. Lysacek's base value in the SP was 40.00. In the FS, Lambiel's base value was 75.91. Plushenko's base value was 75.03. Lysacek's base value was 74.93. Therefore, Lambiel's total base values were lower than Plushenko and Lysacek.

  12. #32
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    Lambiel's GOEs on spins and footwork would have made up the difference in TES. Lambiel also handily beat Lysacek and Plushenko in PCS despite being rather messy on a few jumps. He will mostly likely be way ahead of the rest with Takahashi.

    Don't forget Chan also had some rather impressive PCS despite mistakes in both programs.

    All of Lambiel, Takahashi and Chan are the kind of skaters that receive sky high PCS when they skate clean or close to clean. I have no doubt these would have been the top three in vancouver if clean, regardless of what Lysacek and Plushenko would bring.

    Oda had scoring potential on TES, but his PCS would always hold him down until he could skate confidently and error free without breaching the Zayak Rule or other COP rules. The totally empty programs didn't help, no matter how well he skated them.
    Last edited by Marco; 04-05-2013 at 12:27 PM.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanlysacek View Post
    It seems you are basing the placements on what YOU would have done with the scores, not on what the judges would do. The judges know more about figure skating than any of us, so what they would have done is what matters most, even if one of us disagrees. That is what my question is based on, what the judges would do.
    LOL, and you can guess what someone who knows better than any of us would have thought ?
    IMO, if clean, Lambiel and Takahashi should have been higher than both Lysacek and Plushenko. But I don't know what judges would have done !

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prancer View Post
    Let's say that you all conclude that no, Evan wouldn't have won if everyone had skated cleanly.

    Everyone still didn't skate cleanly and Evan still won.

    I never understand the purpose behind these threads. Not only are they purely speculative, they are purely speculative about something that already happened and can't be changed.
    Exactly, part of being Olympic champion is skating cleanly when the pressure is on, which Evan did. The other skaters had their chance to skate perfectly and they didn't.

  15. #35
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    No probably 5th or 6th - behind Plush, Takahashi, Lambiel, Chan, and maybe Oda too.

  16. #36
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    Lysacek would likely be scraping the bottom half of the top 10 if everyone (literally everyone, including headcases like Abbott and Verner) skated cleanly.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by spikydurian View Post
    Why are we having so many 'back in time' polls? Must be creeping boredom of the coming off-season!
    No kidding!

    I don't see the point on dwelling on past results and wondering 'what if?'

    You can argue that Plushenko would have won if some of his jumps were cleaner, but they weren't!

    You can argue that Irina Slutskaya or Maria B would have won 2000 Worlds (other thread) if some of their jumps were cleaner, but they weren't and the Kween won.

    Sorry for the rant ... must be the off-season withdrawals affecting me

  18. #38

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    People just like to play with hypos. People debate "what if" all the time in a multitude of subjects. Anyway, after years on this forum, I've just gotten used to it. I actually think COP makes it more "fun" because we have real numbers to play with.

  19. #39
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    Post Would Evan have won 2010 Olympics even had everyone skated cleanly?

    Hardly.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Lambiel not only didnt have the triple axel but he didnt even have quad-triple or triple-triple combinations. At the end of every jump he only did doubles. I am not sure but I would guess his base value was probably even lower than Evan`s or Chan`s who werent doing quads, but were doing everything else. I still think he would have beaten Evan but I highly doubt he is the winner if EVERYONE skates cleanly. Takahashi almost certainly is, Lambiel maybe silver at best.
    a) Lambiel had a backloaded triple-triple
    b) His LP base value was higher than Chan's and Lysacek. And Plushenko. Takahashi beats him (if he doesn't have the downgrades, though). I think the
    c) The judges were willing to give him huge PCS
    d) If you believe in reputation judging, Lambiel's record was stronger than Takahashi's.
    e) I'm pretending that clean means "with a triple axel"

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