View Poll Results: What would the podium at 2000 Worlds have been had Irina and Maria done clean longs

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  • Kwan gold, Slutskaya silver, Butyrskaya bronze

    21 13.46%
  • Kwan gold, Butyrskaya silver, Slutskaya bronze

    5 3.21%
  • Butyrskaya gold, Slutskaya silver, Kwan bronze

    70 44.87%
  • Butyrskaya gold, Kwan silver, Slutskaya bronze

    10 6.41%
  • Slutskaya gold, Butyrskaya silver, Kwan bronze

    50 32.05%
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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by ripingroar37 View Post
    Anyone who thinks Slutskaya wouldnt have won is crazy. Had she just skated a clean program with 7 triples, not even doing a triple-triple like Kwan or a triple-triple sequence like Maria had planned, even that would have won it for her easy. The marks she got for her flawed 6 triple performance already make that obvious. She got very generous marks for both technical merit and presentation, especialy when you consider she sacrificed a large chunk of choreography to throw in another jump she popped and still didnt do it. 5 of the 9 judges gave her a higher technical mark than Kwan, some .2 higher, even with a performance with a mistake and much less completed content. 3 of the 9 judges gave her a higher mark than Michelle for presentation, including 2 who didnt even give her a higher technical mark. So just imagine an even slightly better skate. She probably had planned atleast a triple salchow-triple loop which would have made her win all the more emphatic, but she didnt even need to have bothered with that if she didnt want.

    I dont know why more are voting for Maria than Irina. Maria's long program sucked, and could not even approach the level of her short program performance even if she were clean. She didnt have 2 triple lutzes planned like both Kwan and Slutskaya did, and a triple-triple sequence is worth almost nothing extra, it is far less valuable than even the triple toe-triple toe Kwan included. I am not sure if she would have even beaten Michelle in the long program since Michelle skated so great that night and had very good marks, but since a clean Irina was easily winning the long anyway it wouldnt matter since Maria 2nd Michelle 3rd, Maria 3rd Michelle 2nd, both add up to Maria silver and Michelle bronze overall. Those of you who think Maria (or Michelle, but especialy Maria) would have been marked over a perfect Irina are crazy. The judges held Irina up and nearly gave her the gold even with her mistakes, and hammered Maria and gave her super low marks, almost losing to Gusmeroli in the long program with just a couple errors. With Irina's subpar skate, Maria would have come 1st or 2nd in the long to win had she gone clean, but not if Irina also did. I guess Maria fans are crazy as Yu Na Kim ones.
    Well Kwan was first to skate in the final group and Slutskaya much later (second last?). I think it's the ordinals that mattered more here.

    But yeah, the judging in the short indicated that Slutskaya probably would have won if all 3 were clean, even though I feel she shouldn't have - but that's another discussion.

    If all 3 were clean, I would judge them like so:

    Short: Bute, Kwan, Slute.

    Free: Kwan, Bute, Slute.

    I feel Slute had a better shot at the title in 2001 since she had a better short program than in 2000 and even more clout after having beaten Kwan more times in 2001.

  2. #42
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    Agree with all you said. The only real question is who would have taken 2nd in the long between Michelle and Maria if Maria had gone clean, but that wouldnt mean a thing since Maria would win silver and Michelle bronze regardless. I also wouldnt have given Slutskaya the title even skating cleanly probably, well maybe if she duplicated her GPF performance but I dont think she was ever planning that kind of content at worlds. I am sure the judges would have given it to her though.

    I agree she felt like an even stronger favorite in 2001 than 2000, but on the other hand I think she would have had to skate better in 2001 to win than in 2000 since the judging panel seemed more willing to reward Michelle at the 2001 worlds than 2000 where you can tell the momentum was really towards the Russian ladies, and the judges also were not overly generous to Irina at the 2001 worlds like they were in 2000 and some other events. I am not saying Irina couldnt have won in 2001 but I think she would have had to skate better than what she would have had to skate to win in 2000.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    Slutskaya lost SLC.

    Butyrskaya lost that infamous 2000 NHK. If you are just looking for 6 triples, then there's 2001 Worlds too.
    I dont consider Slutskaya's SLC performance as clean.

    I had forgotten 2000 NHK though, thanks for reminding me. Butyrskaya bombed the qualifying round at the 2001 worlds so no chance of a clean competition, and doubling the 2nd triple lutz is a major mistake in those days of ladies skating as well.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by ripingroar37 View Post
    I dont consider Slutskaya's SLC performance as clean.

    I had forgotten 2000 NHK though, thanks for reminding me. Butyrskaya bombed the qualifying round at the 2001 worlds so no chance of a clean competition, and doubling the 2nd triple lutz is a major mistake in those days of ladies skating as well.
    If I remember NHK for that year, Maria skated the best she possibly could; even clicking on 2 3-Lutzes! Peter C. actually thought she had won! Of course the judging had already been decided and she wound up with Silver behind Irina! To myself I said, "cry me a river!" She had been gifted a couple Gold medals in other GP events; esp. in Paris where Jenny Kirk was underscored being a newbie from the US!

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fiero425 View Post
    If I remember NHK for that year, Maria skated the best she possibly could; even clicking on 2 3-Lutzes! Peter C. actually thought she had won! Of course the judging had already been decided and she wound up with Silver behind Irina! To myself I said, "cry me a river!" She had been gifted a couple Gold medals in other GP events; esp. in Paris where Jenny Kirk was underscored being a newbie from the US!
    Jenny Kirk didnt even finish 2nd to Maria at that event though. She was 3rd behind Volchkova who also had mistakes. International judges were never that impressed with Jenny. She skated too small for their liking I guess.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by ripingroar37 View Post
    Jenny Kirk didnt even finish 2nd to Maria at that event though. She was 3rd behind Volchkova who also had mistakes. International judges were never that impressed with Jenny. She skated too small for their liking I guess.
    Too small and her jumping technique was strange, although her LP in Paris was very impressive for such a young skater !

  7. #47
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    Her jump technique was very strange. Her jumps just looked so ugly. I think that really held her back.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by briancoogaert View Post
    Too small and her jumping technique was strange, although her LP in Paris was very impressive for such a young skater !
    What bothered me just as much about her getting only a bronze, the program ended with a triple lutz! Who does that to a little girl? The coach and her mom should be dissected and eviscerated! It was bad enough she was skating an adult program, but to finish like that had to be stressful to her little body!

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fiero425 View Post
    What bothered me just as much about her getting only a bronze, the program ended with a triple lutz! Who does that to a little girl? The coach and her mom should be dissected and eviscerated! It was bad enough she was skating an adult program, but to finish like that had to be stressful to her little body!
    Maybe she wondered the same thing since a little over a year later the Scotvolds were gone.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by ripingroar37 View Post
    Her jump technique was very strange. Her jumps just looked so ugly. I think that really held her back.
    She revamped her jumps later on and they became bigger - but she also lost some consistency.

  11. #51

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    Strangely enough, the Croatian judge, one of two who gave Irina the nod in the long, actually placed Michelle ahead of Irina in the short (5.6/5.7 for Michelle and 5.4/5.8 for Irina). I wonder if he felt pressured to give Irina first in the long after going against the tide in the short.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by ripingroar37 View Post
    Agree with all you said. The only real question is who would have taken 2nd in the long between Michelle and Maria if Maria had gone clean, but that wouldnt mean a thing since Maria would win silver and Michelle bronze regardless. I also wouldnt have given Slutskaya the title even skating cleanly probably, well maybe if she duplicated her GPF performance but I dont think she was ever planning that kind of content at worlds. I am sure the judges would have given it to her though.

    I agree she felt like an even stronger favorite in 2001 than 2000, but on the other hand I think she would have had to skate better in 2001 to win than in 2000 since the judging panel seemed more willing to reward Michelle at the 2001 worlds than 2000 where you can tell the momentum was really towards the Russian ladies, and the judges also were not overly generous to Irina at the 2001 worlds like they were in 2000 and some other events. I am not saying Irina couldnt have won in 2001 but I think she would have had to skate better than what she would have had to skate to win in 2000.
    Figure skating judging would be more scary if clean Red Violin Kwan did not beat clean Swan Lake Butyrskaya. Red Violin wasn't one of Kwan''s best programs, but she sold the crap out of it and nailed everything and a 3/3. Butyrskaya's flaws were well on display in her Swan Lake program (her short on the other hand was so much better) which was extremely inferior to Kwan's program. Plus it was technically easier, and her jumps have never been the prettiest... I don't know what the judges would have done, but I sure hope they would have seen Kwan's program as superior (because it was, in every way).

    I do agree that if Slutskaya had a 3/3 and went clean then she'd easily have won the FS at that worlds. They were itching to give it to her, and she looked really good at that event.

  13. #53
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    I dont think Maria's program would have gotten super high marks even with clean. Even considering the 2 mistakes her marks were quite low. Maybe clean she would have just gotten enough to beat Slutskaya's performance as was and barely stay ahead of Kwan overall to win, but I am quite sure she would have been marked beneath a clean Irina, and probably a clean Michelle in the LP too. She was never going to get marks nearly as high as her short program I dont think based on the marks she already got for what he did. The judges may be biased and questionable at times but they are also not stupid and probably recognize all the points you just made; and Maria was never a judges favorite anyway so unless she did something truly exquisite like her short program her marks would never be through the roof.

    BTW I love Kwan's Red Violin program and it was possibly my favorite program ever from her, and her LP at the 2000 worlds is my favorite skate she ever did, even more than 2001 worlds which most would pick over it. I know that isnt a popular opinion though.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbd1235 View Post
    Figure skating judging would be more scary if clean Red Violin Kwan did not beat clean Swan Lake Butyrskaya. Red Violin wasn't one of Kwan''s best programs, but she sold the crap out of it and nailed everything and a 3/3. Butyrskaya's flaws were well on display in her Swan Lake program (her short on the other hand was so much better) which was extremely inferior to Kwan's program. Plus it was technically easier, and her jumps have never been the prettiest... I don't know what the judges would have done, but I sure hope they would have seen Kwan's program as superior (because it was, in every way).

    I do agree that if Slutskaya had a 3/3 and went clean then she'd easily have won the FS at that worlds. They were itching to give it to her, and she looked really good at that event.
    I dont know what Maria's coach was thinking when she selected Swan Lake as the program for Maria's title defense year. They would have been better off keeping Otonal a 3rd straight year if they couldnt think of anything else. It is not like she couldnt have won using Otonal a 3rd year. Petrenko won worlds and Olympics with a boring 3rd year program that isnt even as good as Otonal, so I am sure the judges would have been fine with Maria defending her title with Otonal if she skated well enough. Just like Maria should have kept her 2001 program for the Olympics season rather than her wierd new one with the trains and sirens crashing in the background.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    The standings (with factored placements) after the SP were:
    Butryskaya 1
    Slutskaya 1.6
    Kwan 2.6
    Gusmeroli 3
    Hughes 4.2

    So going into the FS, Butryskaya, Slutskaya could each win by winning the FS. Kwan could win if Butryskata finished 3rd or worse. So, realistically, those were the contenders.

    Kwan's FS jump schedule was as good as she ever did - 3Lo, 3Lz-2T, 3T-3T, 3S, 3F, 2A, 3Lz - all cleanly and easily landed. Her presentation marks were 5.9s (4 judges) and 5.8s (the other 5). If she had not been the first of the contenders to skate, they probably would have been higher.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY_9LvtnXn0

    Kwan never lost an FS when she landed a jump list like that and I think the judges would have had her first regardless what anyone else did.

    As to the two Russians, I think a clean Slutskaya would have placed ahead of a clean Butryskaya. Slutskaya did do a clean program, but she doubled some jumps. Here is her jump list as skated: 3Lz-2Lo, 2S, 3S-2Lo, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3F, 2A, 3T
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKXbxrqYz38
    It is hard to say what a fully skated program would have been. She doubled two loops and a salchow, but all three of those could not have been planned as triples as that would have her repeating three different triple jumps. The 2-Lo on the Lutz combo was planned as a double. The commentators talk like the solo 2S was planned as a triple. That means she would have had to leave out the solo 3Lo or solo 3Lz, or perhaps do the combo as 2S-3Lo to stay within the rules for repeating triples. Her presentation marks for a clean skate were 5.9 (3 judges) 5.8 (3), 5.7, 5.6 (2).

    Butryskaya had the easiest jump schedule planned - 3Lz, 3F, 3T-half lp-3S*, 3Lo, 3S*, 2A, 3T (The asterisks mark the jumps she didn't do successfully.)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6J01LIzK0k

    She had no real combination while the other ladies each did two. Also, the judges never really liked Butryskaya much because of her stiff-legged style. She needed others to mess up in order to win.

    So, my thinking is, if each skater did the ideal program as planned, the FS would have been 1 Kwan, 2 Slutskaya, 3 Butyrskaya, with the final standings exactly as they were:

    Kwan 2.6 + 1 = 3.6 (higher place in the FS being the tie-breaker)
    Slutskaya 1.6 + 2 = 3.6
    Butryskaya 1 + 3 = 4
    I think Slutskaya probably planned to do the same jumps as she had at the grand prix final: triple lutz-triple loop, triple salchow-triple loop, triple lutz, triple flip, triple toe. Had she done that jump layout she would have been unbeatable. I cant assume anyone would plan to do less than their hardest jumps they had already done that season at the years biggest event.

    As for Butyrskaya vs Kwan, Michelle didnt control her own destiny vs Maria at that point, since she needed someone to finish between her and Maria in the long program to pass her. So if Slutskaya did her grand prix final performance, Michelle would have to settle for 3rd place overall even with her great skate.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by KimGOAT View Post
    I think Slutskaya probably planned to do the same jumps as she had at the grand prix final: triple lutz-triple loop, triple salchow-triple loop, triple lutz, triple flip, triple toe. Had she done that jump layout she would have been unbeatable. I cant assume anyone would plan to do less than their hardest jumps they had already done that season at the years biggest event.
    The GPF was a head to head format that year. Since Kwan and Slute made it to the super final, they would be battling for 1st and 2nd place only, even if both fell on every single jump and Hughes and Bute went clean with 8 triples. At that point Slute was the underdog and was 2nd after the short. She practically had nothing to lose and everything to gain by going for everything, which she did and became the turning point in her career vs Kwan.

    The format is back to usual at Worlds and she would have a lot to lose by going for everything. She had won the GPF and Euros and had the momentum against Kwan. I would bet she was probably only going for the 3sal3loop but not the 3lutz3loop.

    By the way, IIRC, once she did the luztloop and salloop at the GPF, she changed the 2nd lutz to a 3toe.

  17. #57
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    I think Slutskaya was planning either just a standard 6 or 7 triples with no triple-triple or 7 triples with the triple salchow-triple loop as her only one. It as obvious by how she did the first triple lutz-double loop there was never any intention to triple-triple it. I also highly doubt she believed she would need that to win, even if she had been aware of Kwan`s performance. That she went to try the triple salchow again after doubling it might mean she thought she needed the triple salchow-triple loop, or it might mean she didnt want the possablity of being down to only 5 triples at that point which obviously wouldnt be enough. It is hard to say for certain.

    Her triple-triple loop combinations were always very inconsistent, although it is still remarkable as she was the only women even trying and sometimes doing them, but she stuck with only triple-triple loop combos her entire career anyway. I wonder why she didnt attempt more triple-triples ending with the triple toe in her career, be it the triple toe-triple toe or the more difficult ones, and if that might have proven a more fruitful plan for her. The triple loop was one of her best jumps as a solo jump but those combinations are super tough. The only one who was consistent with triple- triple loop combos ever was Lipinski but that was with a tiny breatless, hipless pencil body, and she blew out her hip by 16 as a reward. Unlike Lipinski, Slutskaya was loved enough by judges she probably didnt need triple-triple loop combos to win big events.

  18. #58
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    I wonder if Butyrskaya had won if the judges would now be forced to consider her a contender for the 2002 Olympic Gold as a 2 time world champion from that quad, even with the obvious decline of her skating by 2002. She also skated pretty well at the 2001 worlds so maybe with the reputation advantage over Kwan and Slutskaya as the reiging 2 time champion she would have won gold, even though she finished 4th behind Hughes without the world title status to help her anymore.

  19. #59

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    Quote Originally Posted by ripingroar37 View Post
    I think Slutskaya was planning either just a standard 6 or 7 triples with no triple-triple or 7 triples with the triple salchow-triple loop as her only one. It as obvious by how she did the first triple lutz-double loop there was never any intention to triple-triple it. I also highly doubt she believed she would need that to win, even if she had been aware of Kwan`s performance. That she went to try the triple salchow again after doubling it might mean she thought she needed the triple salchow-triple loop, or it might mean she didnt want the possablity of being down to only 5 triples at that point which obviously wouldnt be enough. It is hard to say for certain.

    Her triple-triple loop combinations were always very inconsistent, although it is still remarkable as she was the only women even trying and sometimes doing them, but she stuck with only triple-triple loop combos her entire career anyway. I wonder why she didnt attempt more triple-triples ending with the triple toe in her career, be it the triple toe-triple toe or the more difficult ones, and if that might have proven a more fruitful plan for her. The triple loop was one of her best jumps as a solo jump but those combinations are super tough. The only one who was consistent with triple- triple loop combos ever was Lipinski but that was with a tiny breatless, hipless pencil body, and she blew out her hip by 16 as a reward. Unlike Lipinski, Slutskaya was loved enough by judges she probably didnt need triple-triple loop combos to win big events.

    It's weird. Slutskaya did gorgeous big 3toe-3toes at Nagano Olympics and 98 Minneapolis Worlds (in the second half of the program) but then we only saw it again at 2000 NHK where it was badly cheated at the end of the program. I'm guessing she just lost the feel for the toe combo and somehow felt more comfortable with the loop combos. Interestingly enough, her final 3toe usually was a little tilted and her least aesthetically pleasing jump. Otherwise it males no sense for her to not do a 3t-3t, especially with the launch of COP in 2005

  20. #60

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    Here's a suggestion for another thread topic, along the same lines: What would the podium at Sochi have been had Yulia and Adelina both done clean long and short programs?

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