View Poll Results: What would the podium at 2000 Worlds have been had Irina and Maria done clean longs

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  • Kwan gold, Slutskaya silver, Butyrskaya bronze

    21 13.46%
  • Kwan gold, Butyrskaya silver, Slutskaya bronze

    5 3.21%
  • Butyrskaya gold, Slutskaya silver, Kwan bronze

    70 44.87%
  • Butyrskaya gold, Kwan silver, Slutskaya bronze

    10 6.41%
  • Slutskaya gold, Butyrskaya silver, Kwan bronze

    50 32.05%
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  1. #1
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    What would podium at 2000 Worlds have been had Irina and Maria done clean longs

    Had Slutskaya and Butyrskaya both skated cleanly in the long program of the 2000 Worlds what would the results have been. Keep in mind these would have been the results per long program placement:

    Kwan 1st, Slutskaya 2nd, Butyrskaya 3rd- same order overall
    Kwan 1st, Butyrskaya 2nd, Slutskaya 3rd- Butyrskaya gold, Kwan silver, Slutskaya bronze
    Slutskaya 1st, Kwan 2nd, Butyrskaya 3rd- Slutskaya gold, Butyrskaya silver, Kwan bronze
    Slutskaya 1st, Butyrskaya 2nd, Kwan 3rd- same order overall
    Butyrskaya 1st, Slutskaya 2nd, Kwan 3rd- same order overall
    Butyrskaya 1st, Kwan 2nd, Slutskaya 3rd- same order overall

    I am pretty sure based on the difficulty she had planned and the too high of scores she got for her poor skate the judges would have given Slutskaya 1st in the long, thus meaning Butyrskaya silver and Kwan bronze, their relative placings in the long being irrelevant. Had Slutskaya skated cleanly with only 7 triples or just a triple toe-triple toe the judges would have placed a clean Maria 1st in the long though and won overall.

  2. #2
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    Slutskaya was the it-girl that season after her break out performance at GPF. Had she skated clean I have no doubt she would be ranked first for the LP. If they all skated clean I would expect the rankings to be 1. Slutskaya, 2. Kwan, 3. Butyrskaya, which means overall 1. Slutskaya, 2. Butyrskaya, 3. Kwan.

  3. #3
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    It is tempting to go with Maria given how dominantly she won the SP and that she was defending Champion. However the technical difficulty of her long program did not even come anywhere close to what Irina supposably had planned, or even to what Michelle Kwan did. Artistically I dont think her long program is as good a vehicle for her as her short program or her long program of last year either.
    I went with Butyrkskaya partly out of sentiment though and since I am sure Irina will get a ton of votes and win this poll easily. Plus I hated her Carmen and am baffled at the gushing of her artistic improvement for such a trite and unimaginative program (I can see it in her short program, her artistic improvement that is).

  4. #4
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    The standings (with factored placements) after the SP were:
    Butryskaya 1
    Slutskaya 1.6
    Kwan 2.6
    Gusmeroli 3
    Hughes 4.2

    So going into the FS, Butryskaya, Slutskaya could each win by winning the FS. Kwan could win if Butryskata finished 3rd or worse. So, realistically, those were the contenders.

    Kwan's FS jump schedule was as good as she ever did - 3Lo, 3Lz-2T, 3T-3T, 3S, 3F, 2A, 3Lz - all cleanly and easily landed. Her presentation marks were 5.9s (4 judges) and 5.8s (the other 5). If she had not been the first of the contenders to skate, they probably would have been higher.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY_9LvtnXn0

    Kwan never lost an FS when she landed a jump list like that and I think the judges would have had her first regardless what anyone else did.

    As to the two Russians, I think a clean Slutskaya would have placed ahead of a clean Butryskaya. Slutskaya did do a clean program, but she doubled some jumps. Here is her jump list as skated: 3Lz-2Lo, 2S, 3S-2Lo, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3F, 2A, 3T
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKXbxrqYz38
    It is hard to say what a fully skated program would have been. She doubled two loops and a salchow, but all three of those could not have been planned as triples as that would have her repeating three different triple jumps. The 2-Lo on the Lutz combo was planned as a double. The commentators talk like the solo 2S was planned as a triple. That means she would have had to leave out the solo 3Lo or solo 3Lz, or perhaps do the combo as 2S-3Lo to stay within the rules for repeating triples. Her presentation marks for a clean skate were 5.9 (3 judges) 5.8 (3), 5.7, 5.6 (2).

    Butryskaya had the easiest jump schedule planned - 3Lz, 3F, 3T-half lp-3S*, 3Lo, 3S*, 2A, 3T (The asterisks mark the jumps she didn't do successfully.)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6J01LIzK0k

    She had no real combination while the other ladies each did two. Also, the judges never really liked Butryskaya much because of her stiff-legged style. She needed others to mess up in order to win.

    So, my thinking is, if each skater did the ideal program as planned, the FS would have been 1 Kwan, 2 Slutskaya, 3 Butyrskaya, with the final standings exactly as they were:

    Kwan 2.6 + 1 = 3.6 (higher place in the FS being the tie-breaker)
    Slutskaya 1.6 + 2 = 3.6
    Butryskaya 1 + 3 = 4

  5. #5
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    I agree with Susan M about placements of the FS.
    Considering Irina Slutskaya was favored this season against Butyrskaya, I can see her being ahead of Maria in the LP.
    And Michelle skated so well, why not Slutskaya in 1st, if perfect as well, but as a MK fan, I'll go with 1-Michelle Kwan, 2-Irina Slutskaya, 3-Maria Butyrskaya.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    Kwan never lost an FS when she landed a jump list like that and I think the judges would have had her first regardless what anyone else did.

    I don't think so.
    Slutskaya with some doubled jumps, one less triple and no triple-triple combo still took two judges from Kwan. I'm absolutely convinced that a seven-triple Slutskaya with one triple-triple would have beaten Kwan in the free skate.

  7. #7
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    Kwan coming in 3rd is a no brainer. Butyrskaya had much higher marks in the short program than Kwan in the long. When do skaters ever do a clean long and have their scores be much lower than their short program? Answer never. Slutskaya did 6 triples, no triple-triple, had a wide open pop, rearrange the choreography to have to throw in another triple, and still beat Michelle in technical scores and took judges off her. Had she done a 7th triple, even without a triple-triple she would have beaten Kwan, and I am pretty sure had at minimum a triple salchow-triple loop planned.

    As for Slutskaya vs Butyrskaya that depends what a clean Slutskaya had planned. A triple lutz-triple loop and Irina wins. A triple salchow-triple loop and Maria wins.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    Also, the judges never really liked Butryskaya much because of her stiff-legged style.
    She had 10 5.9s in the short program. I would say this is proof the judges at this event liked her just fine. You are right judges did not usually like her, but every event and the panels are different.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by briancoogaert View Post
    Considering Irina Slutskaya was favored this season against Butyrskaya, I can see her being ahead of Maria in the LP.
    What you say would be true of 1996-1998 and 2001-Maria's retirement. I dont think in 2000 either one was really favored though, just like 1999. Irina beat Maria in all their meetings before Worlds since Maria was skating poorly in almost all events, and Irina was on fire until Worlds. The person who was skating better was coming out ahead, but I dont think it was the usual of the Russian federation clearly favoring Irina and Irina winning even when Maria skates as well or better like other years. Had Maria ever deserved to beat Irina that season she would have. Once Maria lost her World title though, even with Irina also not winning it, Maria was dumped again by the Russian federation and it was all about Irina though, hence why Irina beat Maria at NHK 2000 which was a total joke. In 1999-2000 they were hedging their best a bit on Irina in 1999 due to her slump, and then had to respect Maria's World title status in 2000 so they shared the support equally for this one brief period.

  10. #10

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    This is impossible to call because we don't know if Irina planned any 3-3s. Had she landed all triples including a 3-3, I think she would have won, and we would have Slute-Bute-Kwan. Otherwise, I see it being Kwan-Bute-Slute (since Maria at least had the 3-3 sequence, she'd be ahead of Irina).

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    This is impossible to call because we don't know if Irina planned any 3-3s. Had she landed all triples including a 3-3, I think she would have won, and we would have Slute-Bute-Kwan. Otherwise, I see it being Kwan-Bute-Slute (since Maria at least had the 3-3 sequence, she'd be ahead of Irina).
    Just so you know had the LP been Kwan-Bute-Slute the final order of finish would have been Bute-Kwan-Slut. Slutskaya had to split Kwan and Butyrskaya in the LP for Kwan to finish ahead of Butyrskaya period. OP is a big dope and included a poll option that wasnt even possible by the factored points.

  12. #12
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    This was Irina's title to win.. or LOSE.. which she did.. Her program was not that great and she landed LESS than Kwan yet she still managed high tech scores and very good presentation from the judges despite having a very empty program.. The judges HAD to place Maria first in the SP since she wwent last and had THE best program there. However, she only beat Gusmeroli 5-4 for third place in the free so I don't think she was favored to win this. I agree that it would've been 1. Slutskaya, 2. Kwan and 3. Butryskaya in the FP so overall 1. Slutskaya 2. Butryskaya and 3. Kwan

  13. #13
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    Butryskaya had the easiest jump schedule planned - 3Lz, 3F, 3T-half lp-3S*, 3Lo, 3S*, 2A, 3T (The asterisks mark the jumps she didn't do successfully.)
    Butyrskaya's 2nd 3S was most likely planned to be a 3loop-2toe - provided she landed the 3-3 sequence - that's what she did earlier on the GP circuit. At Europeans, the 2nd 3S was a 3lutz combo attempt.

    So if she landed everything: 3Z, 3F, 3T-half lp-3S, 3Lo, 3Lo-2T (or 3Z-2T), 2A, 3T - and with her momentum in the SP (where she was so clearly above the rest of the field, who also skated clean albeit slightly stiff/shaky performances), I think Maria would have won the LP and won her second world title.

  14. #14
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    You have to wonder if Maria had won her 2nd World title what that would have done for her momentum heading to SLC. Also overlooking the possability she would have skated better in the coming year or two, even with all things remaining the same, some results the next season that might have been different, such as NHK 2001 between Slutskaya and Butyrskaya (surely they wouldnt dump the reigning World Champion for a much lesser performance like that) or the 2001 Worlds with Hughes beating Butyrskaya despite Maria skating quite decently, apart from the Q round.

  15. #15

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    Nobody really knows. I think the skate order played a big part in Kwan's lower scores. The international judges hadn't seen Kwan skate that well since the 1998 Olympics and she was slowly getting back into favor (although her Skate America with a fall garnered a 6.0 in presentation earlier that season). Also, does anyone know how Slutskaya skated in the first LP of the GPF? Kwan's The Red Violin beat Slute's Carmen there. It was Slutskaya's 2 3/3 LP to Don Quixote and Kwan's less-than-usual performance to Ariane that all of a sudden put Slutskaya over-the-top that season.

    Even though Slute received higher tech scores, I wonder if the judges were sort of boxed in and wanted to make sure she placed ahead of Bute to give Kwan the win there as they were conservative with Kwan's scores with Bute and Slute to come next. Yes, I know Slute took 2 judges, but we don't know if she would have gotten 3 more if she landed a 3/3 or at least one more triple. Slute, though messy in 2001, did do a technically ambitious routine in 2001 and still lost to Kwan's cleaner but less technically ambitious routine.

    The only thing I could was this report, http://ww2.isu.org/figure/events/9900/worlds3.html , from the Qualifying round where Kwan's The Red Violin had it's only loss:

    European champion Irina Slutskaya (RUS) continued her dream season with an outstanding performance to win the first Qualifying Group. Her dramatic Carmen program included six clean triples, two in combination (including her triple salchow/double toeloop combination) and her unique double Biellmann spin. It earned three marks of 5.8 for technical merit and another four 5.8s for presentation and first places from five of the seven judges.
    1999 world silver medallist Michelle Kwan (USA) placed second in this group. She too skated a high quality program with six clean triples (two in combination), excellent spirals and spins. Her only error came when she doubled her salchow. Her technical merit marks ranged from 5.5 to 5.7 but she received one 5.9 and four 5.8s for presentation. Third in this group was 14 year old Sarah Hughes (USA), the youngest skater in the Championships, who placed seventh last year. She landed five triples (two in combination) in her Turandot program.
    I don't think Kwan did a 3/3 there, so she must've added a last minute triple toe-loop since she doubled her Salchow if she did indeed land 6 triples. One can infer that Slute would have won the LP since they had similar content in the QR, but there are other factors to consider. Kwan's energy-level must have not been the same because her quote indicates she could've done a lot better. Kwan certainly had that fire she needed in the LP. Also, Slute's 6-triple performance in the QR certainly got higher marks than her 6 triple effort in the LP.

    BTW, why is Kwan gold, Butyrskaya silver, and Slutskaya bronze an option when that wasn't possible?
    Last edited by VIETgrlTerifa; 04-03-2013 at 08:43 AM.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa View Post
    BTW, why is Kwan gold, Butyrskaya silver, and Slutskaya bronze an option when that wasn't possible?
    Factored placements were especially tricky during the years where the Qual rounds counted. Kwan gold, Butyrskaya silver, and Slutskaya bronze actually would have been possible if a fourth skater (not Gusmeroli) had been second in the FS behind Kwan and ahead of Butryskaya. For example, let's say the FS results were
    1 Kwan
    2 Hughes
    3 Butryskaya
    4 Slutskaya

    The final standings would have been

    Kwan 2.6 + 1 = 3.6
    Butryskaya 1 + 3 = 4
    Slutskaya 1.6 + 4 = 5.6
    Hughes 4.2 + 2 = 6.2

    If Gusmeroli had been the 2nd place skater in the FS, she would have edged out Slutskaya for the bronze (3+2=5). As a practical matter, I think the odds of her or anyone else breaking up the top three were pretty long.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by mustafinabars View Post
    What you say would be true of 1996-1998 and 2001-Maria's retirement. I dont think in 2000 either one was really favored though, just like 1999.
    That's what french commentators from french Eurosport were trying to say at 2000 Euros. That Maria's career was over, that russian Fed was behind Irina more than Maria, and with the newcomers, Maria should retire.
    But Philippe Pélissier sometimes had strange comments
    When Maria won the SP at Worlds with such a beautiful program, I was really happy for her.

  18. #18

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    I remember even Elena Chaikovskaia said that noone in the building was talking about Maria as a serious contender besides she and Maria herself. I think whatever reputation Maria had built by winning the previous WC she lost with her mediocre results the next season. Still, the judges judged the actual performance rather than reputation, so she won the SP and placed poorly in LP, both placements as deserved.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    I remember even Elena Chaikovskaia said that noone in the building was talking about Maria as a serious contender besides she and Maria herself. I think whatever reputation Maria had built by winning the previous WC she lost with her mediocre results the next season. Still, the judges judged the actual performance rather than reputation, so she won the SP and placed poorly in LP, both placements as deserved.
    Yes but that in no way suggest to me she was thinking they didnt have a chance, more like a they were going to show everyone and stick it to them (which she did in practices and the short program, and everything right up until those two tripel salchows in the LP). I am no Maria fan in the least, in terms of my affection for skaters she ranks half a notch above Suguri or Ando for me which anyone who knows me can figure out is quite low, lol! However I am surprised anyone thinks she would be as low as 3rd. Over the years the short programs are usually a good indication of how the judges will score the LPs if skated well also. Maria won the short by a very decisive margin, and would have won it even if Irina had not had her slighty shaky combination. The absolute worst I could see her being is 2nd in the LP to Irina honestly (if Irina did her best, no t with what she did do of course).

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    However I am surprised anyone thinks she would be as low as 3rd. Over the years the short programs are usually a good indication of how the judges will score the LPs if skated well also. Maria won the short by a very decisive margin, and would have won it even if Irina had not had her slighty shaky combination. The absolute worst I could see her being is 2nd in the LP to Irina honestly (if Irina did her best, no t with what she did do of course).
    That's because the facts don't only support your conclusion.

    Factored placements were especially tricky during the years where the Qual rounds counted. Kwan gold, Butyrskaya silver, and Slutskaya bronze actually would have been possible if a fourth skater (not Gusmeroli) had been second in the FS behind Kwan and ahead of Butryskaya. For example, let's say the FS results were
    1 Kwan
    2 Hughes
    3 Butryskaya
    4 Slutskaya

    The final standings would have been

    Kwan 2.6 + 1 = 3.6
    Butryskaya 1 + 3 = 4
    Slutskaya 1.6 + 4 = 5.6
    Hughes 4.2 + 2 = 6.2

    If Gusmeroli had been the 2nd place skater in the FS, she would have edged out Slutskaya for the bronze (3+2=5). As a practical matter, I think the odds of her or anyone else breaking up the top three were pretty long.


    That's true. I forgot about the other skaters. I think I took it for granted that a clean Kwan, Butyrskaya, and Slutskaya would not have been 1-2-3 in the LP in some order despite how everyone else skated.

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