View Poll Results: Who will make the team

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  • Julia Lipnitskaya

    127 66.84%
  • Nikol Gosviyani

    16 8.42%
  • Alena Leonova

    20 10.53%
  • Ksenia Makarova

    1 0.53%
  • Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

    118 62.11%
  • Anna Pogorilaya

    45 23.68%
  • Adelina Sotnikova

    100 52.63%
  • The Polinas

    7 3.68%
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  1. #61

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    I have a feeling Leonova is going to this Grand Prix and put her name back in the conversation. She finally has decent programs again.

    Anyone other than Leonova, Tuktamysheva. Sotnikova, or Lipnitskaya making the team is a 0.1% chance. That skater would have to be 100% clean through Europeans to make the team.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by love_skate2011
    she got 2 edge calls on her lutz had a step out on her 3-3, fix her technical flows and get better flow on her jumps to maz GOE with her lvl 4 spins. if she stays consistent her PCS will also improve this can get around 130-135 FS almost the same as Tuk and Adelina can get
    And you just assume those edge calls will go away and her jumps will get better quality-wise because of what? She had those problems for a while now. She might be able to fix them in the years to come, but up until Sochi, it's rather unlikely. I agree she can score aswell as Sot and Tuk, but putting her in the same rank of skaters as Yuna, Mao and Caro is just over-hyping at it's worst.

    Quote Originally Posted by muskesk8r
    I feel like I'm having to teach a semantics course for everything I say today. Saying something "may" happen is not the same as saying it "will" happen. Scores for the skaters rise as the season progresses. Who is to say that won't happen if Julia continues to improve and if the top ladies make mistakes?
    Or you'll just have to understand that others do understand what you say, and still think it's wrong. No, I don't think Julia "might" become a thread to the top 3 just in time for Sochi (especially not since that includes Yuna). If they're skating badly of course they're beatable, and quite a few ladies can beat a subpar Mao and Caro. But being a thread to them would mean that her skating at least rivals that of good skating Mao and Caro, and no, I don't see that happening.
    And for this 'scores go up thoughout the season'-argument: generally true, but this was a Senior B, those aren't exactly known for having low scores. Can I be funny and just point out Mao's score at JO?

    Quote Originally Posted by koatcue
    She has already beaten Akiko, both with mistakes. And Gracie is SO overhyped right now! Ashley is no better than a clean Lip. And the clean Lip is going to score more due to technique than Ashley..
    Oh, I don't even disagree that Gracie is overhyped. But worlds 2013 showed that the judges like her, and she's fast with huge jumps. Her BV is equal to Julias, but her jumps would get a lot higher GOE. If Ashley continues to go for the 3-3, her BV can hold up to Julias too... and she'll win on PCS.
    I'm not saying Ashley, Gracie or Akiko are on a different level than Julia or something, but they're at least equal to her on overall skating ability, and that's the kind of skaters she's realistically up against, and not Yuna.

  3. #63

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    I don't know who will make the team. But I can't wait for the next batch of Russian ladies to take center stage. Radionova, Proklova and Sotskova are so much more interesting than the current three (Sotnikova, Tuk, and Lipnitskaya, that is).
    Last edited by shine; 10-08-2013 at 03:26 AM.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    And you just assume those edge calls will go away and her jumps will get better quality-wise because of what? She had those problems for a while now. She might be able to fix them in the years to come, but up until Sochi, it's rather unlikely.
    She can go back to 2 flips in the LP instead of two flutzes like she did last year.
    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    And for this 'scores go up thoughout the season'-argument: generally true, but this was a Senior B, those aren't exactly known for having low scores. Can I be funny and just point out Mao's score at JO?
    Mao has her reputation and all of Japanese FS federation support. Julia was starting her first full senior season after missing GPF and Nationals and losing to Radionova at JW. And she was like Russian number 4 or even 5, not to mention she always was a little overshadowed by Liza and Adelina (unfairly, IMO). She beat Liza and Akiko, which, I think, will add her some points in judges eyes. Give her some time, if she will do well at the Grand Prix, Nationals and Euros she can become Russian number one, and that would be another story, plus Olympics will be in Russia. There were times when clean Wagner or Gold got something like 110+ for LP, now they get 130 (in Gracie's case it happened in one year, I can't see why Julia can't do the same). I don't say she can beat clean Kostner and Asada, but how likely is it for them to skate clean? And the reast of the girls are not unbeatable for Julia. I'd say she has all the chances to be a dark horse in Sochi
    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Oh, I don't even disagree that Gracie is overhyped. But worlds 2013 showed that the judges like her, and she's fast with huge jumps. Her BV is equal to Julias, but her jumps would get a lot higher GOE..
    And Julia's spins and spirals would get a lot higher GOE. And she has much better programs than Gold
    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    If Ashley continues to go for the 3-3, her BV can hold up to Julias too... and she'll win on PCS..
    But how likely is it for Wagner to land and rotate her 3-3 in both programs and do the rest of her jumps clean? I'd say it's a big if for now

  5. #65

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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    If you would read carefully, I stated that Julia "could be", not "is" the next Oksana. .
    Julia could be the next Oksana in the sense that *anyone* could be the next Oksana. I can't think of another elite Russian skater that is less like Oksana. Oksana is all emotions and expressiveness, Julia is all somber and blank-faced. Oksana was all height on the jumps, Julia is all rotations. Oksana was brilliant, wild and inconsistent, Julia is the solid consistent workman. Oksana was all about artistic interpretation, Julia is all about racking up points.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    If you would read carefully, I stated that Julia "could be", not "is" the next Oksana. Realistically though, I don't think the current COP scoring system would allow any lady to be the next Oksana. I don't even think Oksana could have been the Oksana we know and love had she skated under COP. It's pretty difficult, if not nearly impossible, to interpret the character of the music and tell a story on the ice when you have to constantly contort your body in strange positions that slow you down and constantly have to count in your head how long you are holding every single move or having to choctaw turn, counter turn, do rockers, brackets, lunges, stag jumps, and basically throw everything out there on the ice including the kitchen sink into your footwork sequences. It's exhausting to watch it all, much less to have to do it. No wonder the skaters are so winded and appear to be in need of an oxygen mask at the end of their programs.
    Great post. I understand exactly what you're saying. Julia is very elegant, like Oksana. They may not be the exact same skater, but I haven't been as excited about a lady since Sasha Cohen as I am now about Julia, and I hadn't been as excited about a lady since Oksana before Sasha.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    Julia is all somber and blank-faced.
    Since when is "Schindler's List" smiling, uplifting music?

    Julia is all about racking up points.
    No, COP is all about racking up the points. Julia's skating has to adapt to the judging system that she is skating under.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Since when is "Schindler's List" smiling, uplifting music?

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Autumn_girl
    Mao has her reputation and all of Japanese FS federation support. Julia was starting her first full senior season after missing GPF and Nationals and losing to Radionova at JW. And she was like Russian number 4 or even 5, not to mention she always was a little overshadowed by Liza and Adelina (unfairly, IMO). She beat Liza and Akiko, which, I think, will add her some points in judges eyes. Give her some time, if she will do well at the Grand Prix, Nationals and Euros she can become Russian number one, and that would be another story, plus Olympics will be in Russia. There were times when clean Wagner or Gold got something like 110+ for LP, now they get 130 (in Gracie's case it happened in one year, I can't see why Julia can't do the same). I don't say she can beat clean Kostner and Asada, but how likely is it for them to skate clean? And the reast of the girls are not unbeatable for Julia. I'd say she has all the chances to be a dark horse in Sochi
    When exactly did Gold or Wagner, with their current level of difficulty, get around 110 for clean skates? I hardly doubt that that ever happened.
    And yet Julia was at the GPF last year. She's not as much of an underrated unknown to the judges as you make her out to be. I'm not even denying that her scores should be able to go up (GOE/PCS) throughout the season, but enough to rival Mao or Caro? WTF?
    And I never even talked about completly clean Mao or Caro. That's borderline ridiculous. I said good skating - meaning just a few mistakes, maybe a little better then what they did at worlds (which means Kostner can still afford at least one fall, and Mao can pop or underrotate one or two jumps at least). I started off of the comment "Julia could be a threat to the top 3" - and "threat" hardly means 'she might beat someone if they make an awful lot of mistakes', it means she can at least set pressure on them, because she'd beat them if they wouldn't be completly clean. And that's not going to be the case.
    Just how high do you expect her scores to get? 10 points up in PCS, or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Autumn_girl
    And Julia's spins and spirals would get a lot higher GOE. And she has much better programs than Gold
    7 jumps > 3 spins. And contrary to what a lot of people seem to think, Gracie is a very good spinner. She can get really good GEO for her spins, better than Julias GOE on her jumps no doubt (she got all +2 and +3 for her spins at worlds).
    And her crappy programs didn't bother the judges one bit last year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Autumn_girl
    But how likely is it for Wagner to land and rotate her 3-3 in both programs and do the rest of her jumps clean? I'd say it's a big if for now
    So what? Ashley scored higher than Julia did here at last years TEB with a program without 3-3 or 2A-3T. They're on pretty equal footing and would probably get rather similar scores, if they skate equally well. If Ashley makes more mistakes, then Julia would win. But I still think skating equally well, Ashley would come out on top.

  10. #70
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    Some people forget the World Juniors in 2012. Gold and Sotnikova skated very well there, although not quite totally perfect. They barely made more mistakes than Julia there though, and Julia crushed them. Even had all 3 skated cleanly there, based on the protocals, Julia would have won.

    As for not being able to beat a clean Kostner or Asada, who cares as there is 0% chance they skate cleanly. The only question with them is how many mistakes they make. A competition with 2 or 3 mistakes which is a great competition for them they probably wouldnt lose to Julia, but anymore than that and they easily could. Same applies to Gold and Wagner. Yeah skating cleanly they would probably beat Julia but how likely are they to skate clean. Close to 0% chance too. Any mistakes by them and Julia can beat them. Suzuki is the biggest Jekyl and Hyde of all. She very occasionally can do a clean competition, but is far more likely to bomb, and often is somewhere in between. Either way if the JSF sees Murakami over her as their #2 now she is toast as far as medal contention goes, and could even lose her spot on the team to old Ando then.

    Julia is the only skater besides Yu Na Kim who can actually skate clean competitions and it isnt merely a fantasy to do so.

  11. #71
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    Li'Kitsu, no one says Julia is a threat for clean Mao or Caro (not for Yuna for sure, I'd say even Mao and Caro are hardly a threat for clean Yuna), but I do think she can come on top of the rest and score 130+ for a clean LP. She missed half of last season, including GPF, because of injuries, and isn't a solid number 1 or 2 in her country yet like Wagner and Gold. Like it or not, it does make sense, and if she will do well enough to become Russian number 1 with all the federation support it brings and with the advantage of home ice in Sochi I expect her to get higher GOEs and PCS. She actually got 66 points in TES already and didn't even skate her best, without stepout on 3Lz-3T and with two 3F in the program instead of two flutzes (her coach usually responses quickly to such things with changes in the program) and cleaner landings here and there it can be about 70 points, not so bad. And I have much more hopes on Julia to deliver 7 triples performance when it counts than Wagner or Gold

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Autumn_girl View Post
    Li'Kitsu, no one says Julia is a threat for clean Mao or Caro (not for Yuna for sure, I'd say even Mao and Caro are hardly a threat for clean Yuna), but I do think she can come on top of the rest and score 130+ for a clean LP. She missed half of last season, including GPF, because of injuries, and isn't a solid number 1 or 2 in her country yet like Wagner and Gold. Like it or not, it does make sense, and if she will do well enough to become Russian number 1 with all the federation support it brings and with the advantage of home ice in Sochi I expect her to get higher GOEs and PCS. She actually got 66 points in TES already and didn't even skate her best, without stepout on 3Lz-3T and with two 3F in the program instead of two flutzes (her coach usually responses quickly to such things with changes in the program) and cleaner landings here and there it can be about 70 points, not so bad. And I have much more hopes on Julia to deliver 7 triples performance when it counts than Wagner or Gold
    I agree with all this.

  13. #73

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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Since when is "Schindler's List" smiling, uplifting music?
    Where did I say it was smiling or uplifting? Don't put words into my mouth, thank you. I just find her rather blank faced and lacking in expression overall, though I do agree the somber music suits her.

  14. #74

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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    Julia could be the next Oksana in the sense that *anyone* could be the next Oksana. I can't think of another elite Russian skater that is less like Oksana. Oksana is all emotions and expressiveness, Julia is all somber and blank-faced. Oksana was all height on the jumps, Julia is all rotations. Oksana was brilliant, wild and inconsistent, Julia is the solid consistent workman. Oksana was all about artistic interpretation, Julia is all about racking up points.
    Agreed. If anything, Prokolova is much more of a next Oksana Baiul. Musicality, elegance, and charisma to spare. I'm pretty enamored with both her and Radionova.
    Last edited by shine; 10-08-2013 at 03:35 AM.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by shine View Post
    Agreed. If anything, Prokolova is much more of a next Oksana Baiul. Musicality, elegance, and charisma to spare. I'm pretty enamored with both her and Radionova.
    Excuse my ignorance, but who is Prokolova? I don't follow the junior circuit very closely until they begin to emerge into the senior ranks. I'd like to see her if she is really as you've described.

    I'm not yet sold on Radionova. She has yet to deliver a program or piece of music that truly grabs me as Lipnitskaia has just done with her interpretation of "Schindler's List." With time, maybe that will change.

  16. #76

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    Quote Originally Posted by shine View Post
    Agreed. If anything, Prokolova is much more of a next Oksana Baiul. Musicality, elegance, and charisma to spare. I'm pretty enamored with both her and Radionova.
    Proklova:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioDSQOWMHq8

    Proklova reminds of both Oksana and Cohen, she is truly has that 'look at me' quality. And just like her Oksana, she makes you forget her music (Don Quixote) is simple and trite, because she herself has so much charisma and talent. I love Sakhonvich and Radionova too, but for different reasons. Lipnitskaya is probably my least favorite of the top Russians (considering both Junior or Senior), but she is more watchable than she was in previous seasons and she is a strong competitior.
    Last edited by FunnyBut; 10-08-2013 at 03:24 PM.

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    Proklova:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioDSQOWMHq8

    Proklova reminds of both Oksana and Cohen, she is truly has that 'look at me' quality. And just like her Oksana, she makes you forget her music (Don Quixote) is simple and trite, because she herself has so much charisma and talent. I love Sakhonvich and Radionova too, but for different reasons. Lipnitskaya is probably my least favorite of the top Russians (considering both Junior or Senior), but she is more watchable than she was in previous seasons and she is a strong competitior.
    Oh my, she is adorable! What an exquisite skater with star presence! Charisma oozes from her: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvRhbxXsBk4 Let's hope she survives the puberty monster.

  18. #78
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    I am surprised Tuktamysheva has so many votes. Julia will probably make it since she is skating the best and is the most consistent, but if that happens than Sotnikova will probably get the other spot. Sotnikova is the Russian federation favorite and the favorite of the powerful people so if it comes to her and Tuktam for the 2nd spot they will go with their favorite, unless one blows the other away.

  19. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by rickmercer View Post
    I am surprised Tuktamysheva has so many votes. Julia will probably make it since she is skating the best and is the most consistent, but if that happens than Sotnikova will probably get the other spot. Sotnikova is the Russian federation favorite and the favorite of the powerful people so if it comes to her and Tuktam for the 2nd spot they will go with their favorite, unless one blows the other away.
    Why do you think Sotnikova will get the spot 100%? The Nats will tell...The judges won't give her high marks if not deserved...I think she is a head case + she has a bad technique, so if I were to decide whom to choose, my vote would be for Tuk.

  20. #80

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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Oh my, she is adorable! What an exquisite skater with star presence! Charisma oozes from her: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvRhbxXsBk4 Let's hope she survives the puberty monster.
    She reminds me of a young Sasha Cohen, and although I am not a big Sasha fan, she has many positive qualities of Sasha. I hope she is mentally tough because the competition will be fierce.

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