Only 2 Spots !!
Only 2 Spots !!
Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaya are my picks. The RSF will choose one of Tuktamysheva or Sotnikova (or who knows, maybe even both) to punish for not keeping 3 spots, and we wont know who that is for awhile yet. Either way if Lipnitskaya gets over her current injuries and skates to her potential she isnt going to miss it.
Julia has never been to Worlds, so I don't think they'll risk it (they would if they had 3, but not if there's only 2). A lot will depend on how they skate on the GP.
Liza really did nothing wrong at Worlds. SP was excellent until she had a freak fall on a spin, something that even happened to Amodio who's a great spinner. I think that spooked her and caused the single axel. LP was pretty flawless except she didn't do 3-3. It's unfortunate she ended up behind Adelina yet again. She has the better nerves. She just didn't get the marks she would've gotten had she skated in a later group.
Adelina will probably make it if she skates at all decently because she has TAT on her side.
It's between Adelina, Liza, and Julia. I suspect their respective GP performances will have something to do with who ultimately gets to go. Julia is maybe at the biggest disadvantage where she hasn't competed at Worlds yet and didn't have the best of results this season, and may still be affected by injuries and growing pains in the coming season. I would have liked to see Pogorilaya get to go but that won't happen with just 2 spots, but she's young anyways, and maybe they will send her out on senior GP next season for the experience anyhow.
Julia is going through a growth spurt and those tiny jumps might disappear.
Last edited by Mayra; 03-17-2013 at 09:43 PM. Reason: Popper ;)
A LOT can happen in 12 months but judging on where their skating is right now, they would be NUTS to take anyone but Sotnikova & Tuktamysheva. These two are the ones hyped for years, the ones the judges will be most familiar with and the ones who are starting to produce more mature skating that the judges could be inclined to run with in a situation where one of them skates lights out if the faves faulter. Lipnitskaya has a year to sort it out but she has a HELL of a lot of work to do if she wants to be in with a chance of making the team. Her jumps are crumbling as she grows and the technique and skating quality is nowhere near the other two girls. Gumbiness and seeming deafness to music can only get you so far.
Tuk or Sot could be replaced with Lip, but I'm guessing those are the only 3 in consideration. I love Korobeynikova but she may need a new coach that can get her to stop being such a headcase (and boring) and I like Pogo too but I highly doubt the Fed would give one of it's highly coveted home Olympic spots to a 15 year old with minimal experience, even if she does next season.
I wish the Rus Fed would implement a point system and announce it in advance: GP medals, making GPF, GPF medals, Nationals medals, Euro medals, etc will get points and whichever two had the best season after Euros will go to Sochi.
The more important pick I think is who is the leader of the 2 Russian girls heading into Sochi because she gets to compete at the team event and fight for a team medal. Keep in mind they are all pretty even at this point, with Sot and Tuk slightly ahead on senior experience. This can easiy change next season if Lip wins Euros (for example).
I hadnt thought about that but for all these skaters from top countries it is hugely important not only to make the Oly team but be the #1, so you have a shot at a team medal. The Russian ladies are a good example of this as for any of Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, or Lipnitskaya winning an individual medal in Sochi is a huge long shot, but a team medal could be won by whichever gets to compete in it, if they can contribute a strong performance.
Both girls can skate in the team, hopefully. As of right now, I would say Sot for SP, Tuk for LP.
They can only switch skaters out in two disciplines.
They definitely can't for men, as they only have one entry. We'll see what happens with dance, but as of right now, I would not rely on I&K in the team event (shame, because it would be good for them to get a taste of the Olympics before the dance event). V&T are the best shot if they want a gold in team, but they might not want to do a full competition prior to the pairs event... Max is super patriotic though and they're pretty consistent, so they might.
Actually what I said of I&K is true for the girls as well. Neither has skated at an Olympics. The Russian crowds are really noisy. I&K couldn't hear their FD music in Moscow. So if possible, it would be best to let both girls skate in the team event, so they can experience that pressure before their solo turns.
Unless one (or both) of them has an injury, I think Liza and Adelina have the inside track on this. Julia has never competed at senior worlds, and for Leonova to make the team of two, 5-6 Russian ladies will have to be injured. Sorry, I actually like Alena but I was not at all impressed with her this year. I think she may be on the way out at this point, like Makarova.
Not to sound pro Canadian but I am honestly pretty sure Canada is winning the team event. Even if we win no individual golds in Sochi, we still will win the team event. No country can match our depth across the various events right now. Our weak link is Omsond and she is capable of a top 5 or 6 finish in the individual event on a good day, and she is young and will only get better.
I was gutted for Alena. I thought she should have stayed with this season's free programe rather than go back to last years. It's almost like telling the judges you have no form.
I thought Elizaveta was so undermarked in her free skate. I would have had her & the chinese girl way above Gracie who now seems to be the-can-do-no-wrong girl for the judges.
It's so sad that Makarova has very little hope of making Sochi. Of all the Russian girls I enjoy watching her the most.