Well in all fairness if we look at all four skates... One of those skates was not like the others.....But then again that one is also given the most judging gifts.
Never is there a scientifically accurate poll on FSU, I know. But this one's hilarious because it seems as if all the Chan and V/M lovers are voting for D/W, and all the D/W lovers and Chanflation critics are voting for Chan.
S/S lovers are shrugging their shoulders and putting a finger to the wind. Russian baby ballerina lovers, and Mao lovers are shaking their heads, while Yunabots are grinning from ear to ear. Carolina has nothing to worry about.
U.S. ladies are celebrating a small but satisfying victory. Max is loaded for bear, and Ross' mining for top ten faltered, but he's still a Boss human being and a mighty fine skater. Richard, Adam, Jeremy, et al, are sighing but probably taking it like men in comparison to ...
Chan desiring to prove to everyone and their brother why he deserved each and every last one of his gifted marks, even to the degree of throwing dirt on D10's and Javi's achievements. Chan's fans are still pumped about his sp, but many are still complaining that he needs "a real coach." D/R are giddy that all their hard work paid off and they're breathing it all in and are likely determined to wisely take things one day at a time.
I wonder if S/S and S are planning to ritually bury their costumes along with Latin Bolero music and strategically plot to come up with something extra special for next season? Certainly they need to pray for renewed physical health and a miracle in Sochi. V/T's smiles contain a grain of salt partly due to their tumultuous season. Grief is never faraway and life is short.
Enjoy life and victories while the sun shines all. What will be, will be.
Its impossible to predict because injuries happen, skaters improve etc. And just plain bad skates. I think Patrick is in someways the worst shape because he is making terrible choices... I.e his coaching decisions, I also think he doesn't seem to have people telling him how it is. I.e I think I probably had as many mistakes other guys... I think its a really bad receipe because I don't know how long the judges are going to be willing to take the backlash... However I think Patrick also is the most favored.
I think V/T are also the most favored too given some of their scores and being Russia's best shot at gold... However who knows how they will skate?
Kim was spectacular here but I can see a perfect storm of someone else winning she's the best competitor though...
As for D/W and V/M. Frankly I'm not convinced D/W are better. I actually very much prefer V/M because I think they are more "dancer like" however I do think that they got complacent and also need to get better at executing vs D/W.
D/W 189.56, V/M 185.04 = 4.52 D/W WORLDS
D/W 187.35, V/M 184.32 = 3.04 D/W 4CC
D/W 183.39, V/M 179.83 = 3.56 D/W GPF
D/W 183.36, V/M 177.76 = 5.60 D/W WTT
V/M 183.65, D/W 177.98 = 4.67 V/M Worlds
V/M 182.84, D/W 179.40 = 3.44 V/M 4CC
D/W 188.55, V/M 183.34 = 5.21 D/W GPF
D/W 185.27, V/M 181.79 = 3.48 D/W Worlds
V/M 224.43, D/W 223.03 = 1.40 V/M Worlds
V/M 221.57, D/W 215.74 = 5.83 V/M Olympics
D/W 169.44, V/M 168.22 = 1.22 D/W GPF (no CD)
I dont think Chan can win the Olympics next year. Too much outcry over his win last year and that will come into play with how the judges score the Olympics. They wont want another SLC scandal as they will know skating will be out of the Olympics if that happens a 2nd time, and the talk after Worlds this year was so strong that even casual sports fans who will be watching the Games will be watching Chan more carefully than anyone else. I predict Chan will be scored carefully to the point he cant win with any mistakes, and could even skate cleanly and lose if one of Fernandez or Hanyu (the ISU favorites after Chan I suspect) skate great. We will see though.
After that Davis & White are 2nd most likely to lose. People like lauren, judgejudy, euterpe and others in this thread who seem to be counting out the great Virtue & Moir just because they lost Worlds are foolish. Virtue & Moir will fight back like demons, they are so tough and one of the greatest ice dance teams in history. I still would give Davis & White the better chance, maybe 55-60 but Virtue & Moir will badly want to defend their Olympic Gold and wont be easy to stop. Held at gunpoint or forced to bet 10, 000 now I would pick Davis & White winning now but it would be a tough call.
That overrated Russian pair and Yu Na Kim will probably be certain to win if they dont fall more than 3 times. Kind of the position Chan was in the last couple years. So no point considering them losing, it isnt going to happen unless Ando makes a great comeback. Kostner and Asada arent beating Kim even if they skate perfect, and she makes mistakes, forget it. Their chance was this year since Asada was doing a program with a much higher base value than Kim and Kostner was getting as high or higher GOE and PCS than Kim in many ways. However they blew it or Kim took it from them, however you look at it, and next year will be back to Kimflation and others needing a bunch of mistakes from her. Kim and Kostner wil both up their difficulty taking away Maos base value edge, and Mao will probably even scale back knowing what she is doing now she will do cleanly, and Kim will return to getting higher PCS and GOE than all others, she already did in the LP at Worlds. As for the overrated Russian pair they now have all the judging favor over the much more talented and great Germans all becuase they are so pretty and the ISU needs a Russian gold at the Games, and will not lose unless they skate super bad and the Germans blow the roof off the place.
So you all just assume that Chan will definately fall at next year's Olympics? He might just take COR 2012 approach - double some jumps and make it no fall at all. He will still get huge scores and win OGM.
Last edited by Eyre; 03-18-2013 at 07:06 PM.
I agree it can still go either way, however I do believe D/W's motivation to win is bigger. Hard to tell whether it will help or harm them.
I actually think Kostner is one of the few who might. Her PCS is so unbelievably high that if she skates clean and adds some difficulty, she's gonna be perfectly capable of beating an unclean Kim. A clean Kim is going to be unbeatable, though.Kostner and Asada arent beating Kim even if they skate perfect, and she makes mistakes, forget it.
I kinda agree with that. I do believe S/S have better skating quality and when clean, are much more solid and certain in their elements. They just make it all look so easy, while with V/T I fear for her when he lifts her every sigle time. He just looks so shaky and insecure. I do believe Tatiana is the best female pair skater out there, but as a team, I think S/S are better. V/T kinda cover whatever lacks they have with their undeniable chemistry. I adore this chemistry, I love Tatiana and how she's made Maxim a whole new skater/man, but frankly when I watch those teams, S/S seem a lot more champion-material to me.As for the overrated Russian pair they now have all the judging favor over the much more talented and great Germans all becuase they are so pretty and the ISU needs a Russian gold at the Games, and will not lose unless they skate super bad and the Germans blow the roof off the place.
V/T are more like an oldschool Russian pair team, whereas S/S remind me a lot of ice dancers. I think both teams are excellent and when clean, their final scores should be very close. I do not understand the Russian's edge over the Germans at all (when both teams skate clean, that is).
also remember what happened to oksana and maxin? they were 1st in 2009 but ended up being 3rd at the olympics. winning a worlds medal before the olympics doesnt set you up for an olympic medal
who knows maybe D/W might end up like B/A or D/S and be bumped down to 3rd/4th where they belong
IMO Chan and Kim are locks for OGM. That leaves just pairs and ice dance to choose from. (I am shocked that Chan is getting so many votes).
Ice dance is 50-50 between D&W and V&M. Should be the best competition of the Sochi Olympics; either team can take home the gold.
Are V&T's chances less than 50%? Most will disagree with that. IMO S&S are going to be a threat for the OGM because they have won world championship many times, they do the most difficult throw (3A), and V&T have been mistake prone earlier this year. It will be close between these two, but they will have a Canadian pair breathing down their neck if they make mistakes. I will place V&T's chances below 50% because they will have two pairs that can challenge them.
Chan. I think there is too much ridicule attached to his wins at this point. I think this year's Worlds, coming right before the Olympics and right after last year's equally laughable Worlds, is a wakeup call. Of course it will be totally different if he delivers a real gold medal free skate and earns his title credibly.