View Poll Results: Which of the 4 World Champions is most likely to not win Olympic Gold next year
- 219. You may not vote on this poll
Yu Na Kim
Voloszhar & Trankov
Davis & White
Maxim Shabalin had had two knee surgeries and was skating in 2010 on knees so damaged he could hardly bend them. That's why they dropped to 3rd at the Olympics, and even that was a gift from the judges.
Originally Posted by rainbowkisses
D/W aren't the ones dealing with a chronic injury leading up to the 2014 Olympics....
I absolutely believe that Kostner can, but she'll have to be perfect to do it, especially if Kim herself makes no mistakes. Skating order may play a part, too. And when I say perfect, I mean 6-7 clean triples in the FS (she may need a 3-3 or at least a 2A-3T) and no mistakes in the short. I don't think the judges are that enamoured of Kim; I mean, they will be if she skates flawlessly, but all she'll have to do is leave an opening and they'll be more than willing to let Kostner through it.
Originally Posted by Cachoo
It has been so obvious these past few years that TPTB want Kostner to be a champion if she'd only co-operate with them.
Also, Olympics is the time when people who normally don't follow skating that much, go and watch it. Even if all of us got used to Chan winning despite his falls, the rest of the world is up for a surprise and confusion if sth like this happens. And we really don't need anymore judging controversy around this sport, after the 2002 and 2010 dramas.
Originally Posted by Spun Silver
you keep on forgetting that virtue won olympic gold while skating in pain
Originally Posted by euterpe
and she can do it again. especially since they are going into the competition as underdogs again
Tessa was at least smart about how she trained- she had a team of experts moderating her training to ensure the absolute best chance that she would be able to compete in Vancouver. I hate that she was still experiencing so much pain though, and I do think it speaks to her determination. But it is still something that has to be watched (the amount of training she does, I mean).
Shabalin's situation is different IMO; he returned to the ice way too quickly, and as a result was he not walking around with a cane backstage (IIRC)? I remember hearing that he could barely walk. I haven't kept up with how he's doing after retiring from competition but I must imagine that not resting properly had some effect.
I'm stunned that so many are selecting Patrick Chan. I thought he was everyone's poster child for judges' pet.
I was surprised I picked him too but I couldnt imagine picking V&T or Kim. They look like the locks of locks to me right now. The only one I could imagine picking over Chan would be D&W but after beating V&M on their home ice, with Tessa having leg issues off and on for a few years now, and D&W now having won 4 times in a row, only one relatively close, it is hard to see V&M turning the tide. Regarding Chan the Olympics are a whole other animal than other ISU events, and I highly doubt he will get away with anywhere near the number of mistakes he made at Worlds. Thus plus Worlds was a pretty poor event from all the contenders to begin with.
Originally Posted by museksk8r
- Rep Power
I don't see V/T not winning gold. Even at last year's worlds when they were 8th after the short with a score of 60, they made up enough points to painfully come close to winning. I think the judges were more generous on elements in hope they would pull ahead and win but it didn't work out that way.
Originally Posted by judgejudy27
Either V/M or D/W win gold but I think it matters who has the best program, it can go to either one.
Patrick Chan is beatable but he also has a big enough of a cushion with what he does well that he can still win. Same with Kim.
The others seem like locks, especially V&T and Yu-Na, since they won their respective competitions by so many points. Chan has the potential to make more mistakes at the Olympics than at Worlds, and even if he doesn't, some of the other men will up their game even more. He only won worlds by one point, so he's beatable.
Kim does not fall so much as chan. She is so consistent.
Originally Posted by julieann
I don't think chan is unbeatable like yuna.
It is almost tradition now that the canadian champion never wins the gold at olympics ( think about it )
Every tradition is broken at some point. There was a 'tradition' that a reigning world champion in mens discipline did not win the OGM. With Lysacek's world title in 2009, and his OGM in 2010, that tradition was broken.
Originally Posted by sk8ingcoach
He is not consistent like Yu na, but that has not stopped him from winning 3 world titles in a row, has it? He is unbeatable because the judges are on his side. I believe they are neutral when it comes to Yu na, but she does not give them many opportunities to do her any favors.
Originally Posted by karlon
I'm sure sooner or later, this "tradition" will be broken if not this time. I do not believe in "curse". Lysacek was said the same thing when he won 2009 World. But he broke it. Actually, going into an Olympic as a reigning world champion, especially a three times world champion, has many advantages if you do not consider the pressure of that position.
Originally Posted by sk8ingcoach
- Rep Power
I voted for Chan, as the statistics are very much against him....
That curse does not apply to US skaters, since every reigning US male singles World champion in the Olympics has won the gold medal:
Originally Posted by Eyre
It all comes down to who has the better rivals. In this case, Chan's field has depth and the backlash might get to him eventually. But the bigger rival here is in D-W's field: V-M. That's the one that's hardest to predict, hence they are as likely to win as they are lose.
It seems the consensus is V&T and Kim are atleast 90% likely to win next years Olympic Gold, so the chose is clearly beween D&W and Chan.
Well, you can talk about statistics all day long and seperate them in whichever ways you want. I do not know the future and neither do you or anyone. In this sense, we are talking non-sense here including myself.
Originally Posted by Jaana
Just let me remind you the past, the odds Chan has gotten. He has had a world record SP and a world title with only a dance instructor by his side. I admit that I thought he was lost for sure before the world. Though I do not give much of this credit to Kathy Johnson. With Krall, he could probably have produced another 2011 world. In 2012 world, Kathy has already invaded into Krall's space and very much replaced her, though not in the name at that time.
Last edited by Eyre; 03-20-2013 at 02:16 AM.
Yes, this was my reasoning for voting Davis&White also. I think they're great, and they hold my interest even though I'm not usually a fan of Ice Dance.
Originally Posted by Golightly
But D&W vs. V&M is, in my view, the most even-steven rivalry among any of the disciplines.
No matter what one thinks of Chan's victory this year, he is a tremendous talent, and he's proven on the ice that if he is in fine fetter, he has at least a decent shot at winning no matter what the rest of the field does. Will he actually produce on the day? I have no idea. His record of consistency/inconsistency is too spotty to say much more.
I'm surprised at the dumping of Chan on this poll (well not surprised, but ). I still think he's the heavy favorite, perhaps he'll win with a few mistakes just to give more fuel to his haters
Yu Na Kim doesn't look like she can be beaten. She gave her competition 2.5 years to get some metal under their belts, and now she wants all the gold back! (I wish she just went ahead and said that, instead of helping her 'little koreans'). If anyone is going to beat her, it'd have to be Carolina, with a nearly clean skate and lots of GOE. All the talk of a flood of talented Russian skaters, they are good, but YuNa is still Queen.
V/T now appear to be the host country's only chance for Gold. A country that is richer in figure skating gold than any other, especially Pairs Gold. They have to be the favorite.
I think Dance is undecided, two very well matched teams, who will win?