View Poll Results: Which of the 4 World Champions is most likely to not win Olympic Gold next year

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  • Yu Na Kim

    17 7.76%
  • Voloszhar & Trankov

    20 9.13%
  • Davis & White

    78 35.62%
  • Chan

    104 47.49%
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  1. #1
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    Which of the 4 World Champions is most likely to not win Olympic Gold next year

    All 4 skaters that won Worlds this year look like heavy favorites for the Olympic Gold. It could be the first time since ice dancing joined the Olympics in 1976 that the reigning World Champions win all 4 individual events. Which of the 4 World Champions do you think at this point is the most likely to be upset and not win the Olympic Gold next year.

  2. #2
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    Well it can't be Chan since he can fall numerous times in a program and still win. Patrick needed to watch those other champions this weekend to see how you really win.

  3. #3
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    I had to think awhile who to vote for. I surprised myself and voted for Chan, which seems strange as evidence keeps being shown he can fall 5 times or more and win over clean skates by the next best skaters. However it has alot to do with the fact I feel V&T and Kim are almost a lock. I dont think D&W are a lock over V&M, but after dominating them this season, and thoroughly beating them on home ice, they will be the clear favorites even over V&M going into the season, but I am not sure if the judges want to see a non Russian or European team defend the Oly Gold just yet. Chan has a number of things that could go against him even with the judges undying adoration of him, the Canadian curse at the Olympics, an unfriendly environment, the increasingly louder voice about his scores and victories, that he seemingly has already peaked in his abilities and is already on technical decline, and Fernandez, Hanyu, and Ten all imprving and shooting for the top spot even with the judging heavily stacked against them at the moment (you wont see an oldie like Plushenko, Takahashi, or in the unlikely event he even returns and makes it to Sochi at all Lysacek win, I am sure of that much). Essentialy though it was just hard to see any of the other 3 not wining so by default Chan was the pick. I have a funny feeling Fernandez is going to be next years Olympic Champion as well.

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    LOL 18 votes already and not a single vote for either V&T or Kim.

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    Not a difficult choice at all:

    1) Davis and White: There have the smallest margin of victory this year over V&M. They don't have the "clean buffer" the other three champions have.
    2) Chan: He has his ups and downs. If he skates clean he is clearly superior as witnessed by SP but the judges have shown this year (yes even in the FD) that anyone who can step up and produce will be placed over a faulty Chan.
    3) V&T. If clean they will win. S&S can beat them with good programs.
    4) Yuna. Most likely to repeat. She is a robot.

  6. #6

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    I voted for V/T because ... I'm naive ... actually it was a mousing error. I think Ice Dance followed by the Men will have the most unpredictable results.
    Last edited by bardtoob; 03-17-2013 at 06:18 PM.

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    Yuna- I don't think she's beatable when she's on and I think she will be on at the Olympics. Her jumps have not left her. She's saying she feels less pressure having already won. Kostner may beat her on PCS but I don't think she will skate 2 clean programs. Mao- could possibly upset if the 3A is perfect but that's a big ask. Yuna will repeat.

    Chan- I think he will need to be cleaner at the Olympics. I do not think the ISU will want what happened Friday to happen when millions of people are watching. I also don't think he can count on big mistakes from all the main contenders again. If he is decently clean, I think he will probably win.

    D&W- This is the one I am most emotionally invested in. I so hope they win- its not locked up by any means. In my mind, they have been the most dominant team since Tessa's injury and should go into this Olympics as three time World Champs and clear favorites. I am by no means a Virtue and Moir hater- I thought they were the brilliant, deserving winners in 2010, I loved Hip Hip Chin Chin and I actually loved Carmen for the first time yesterday. On the one hand, I could see the consensus being that the pendulum has swung over to D&W after this season. On the other side, there could be some chatter that 2014 is V/M's turn again & with Meryl & Charlie making noise about staying after Sochi and Tessa & Scott making it pretty clear that this is the goodbye, I could see them getting this one. Particularly if they do a ballet type routine in Russia. Ice dance judging is so weird and both teams are so good. If all is fair, it will come down to who executes their levels the best on the two days. I can't believe it seems like they will all stay training in Canton. Next year is going to be insane in ice dance.

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    These would be my odds roughly now:

    Pairs Gold- Voloszhar & Trankov 85%, Savchenko & Szolkowy 13%, Duhamel & Radford 1%, all others combined 1%. S&S arent winning on V&T`s home ice now no matter how well they skate unless V&T have some real problems, and S&S have bigger consistency issues than V&T do so...

    Ladies Gold- Kim 70%, Kostner 15%, Asada 10%, all others combined 5%. Kim`s to lose again, just like Vancouver. I also doubt now that Kim is reigning World Champion after a dominating performance again you will even see things like Kostner occasionaly getting higher PCS (even if it could be justified). The judges will be fully back on the Yu Na bandwagon. Mao`s current jump layout is completely unrealistic for her to ever do cleanly, and doing it 80% clean is the equivalent of doing it clean. She is in a tough spot though as compared to Kim and Kostner she will undoubtably get lower GOE and PCS, and the only way she can hope to win other than hoping for errors is to the tougher stuff.

    Dance Gold- Davis & White 70%, Virtue & Moir 30%, all others combined 0% (maybe someone sneaking in for silver would be 2 or 3%, but beating both, no way).

    Mens Gold- I am not really sure how to designate the odds at his point except they would be divided somehow between Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu, maybe some small odds for Ten and Takahashi, and everyone else combined after that would be something like 1% total, and Chan`s percentage would be lower than 70.

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    I always sense danger when people talk about a "sure thing." So I voted for Yuna. Chan is brilliant but mistake-prone, D/W and V/M are pretty evenly matched and V/T have the pressure of home ice. So with all of that why pick Yuna? I can see Mao, Carolina and a few others preparing technically EPIC programs to try and catch her. And I think it can be done. Sometimes it is better to be the hunter than the hunted.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I am not sure if the judges want to see a non Russian or European team defend the Oly Gold just yet.
    So what you're saying is that B/S will now magically start outscoring BOTH V/M and D/W and surprise everyone by winning OGM over those teams? If one can be certain of any Olympic outcome a year ahead, it is that the ice dance gold will go to Tessa and Scott or Meryl and Charlie, whether the judges want to see it happen or not. End of story.

    I'd say all this year's champions have a great shot at an Olympic gold, but they all will need to do their absolute best to gain it.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by bardtoob View Post
    I voted for V/T because ... I'm naive ... actually it was a mousing error. I think Ice Dance followed by the Men will have the most unpredictable results.
    Mousing error? LOL!

    I think Yu Na is vulnerable for a couple reasons. The event will have some new blood, and Kostner or Mao can unseat her. And is Miki Ando retired?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by mia joy View Post
    So what you're saying is that B/S will now magically start outscoring BOTH V/M and D/W and surprise everyone by winning OGM over those teams? If one can be certain of any Olympic outcome a year ahead, it is that the ice dance gold will go to Tessa and Scott or Meryl and Charlie, whether the judges want to see it happen or not. End of story.

    I'd say all this year's champions have a great shot at an Olympic gold, but they all will need to do their absolute best to gain it.
    No I did not imply that at all, in fact I think there is 0% chance of someone other than D&W or V&M winning. However the judges might rather D&W win as they dont have the Oly Gold yet, and only if they win V&M wont defend and wont match G&Ps feat.


    Quote Originally Posted by TheIronLady View Post
    I think Yu Na is vulnerable for a couple reasons. The event will have some new blood, and her physical health may be precarious next year. I think Kostner or Mao can unseat her. And is Miki Ando retired?
    I had to chuckle at this point only since you mention new blood but then go on to mention Kostner, Asada, and even Ando, LOL!

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Mens Gold- I am not really sure how to designate the odds at his point except they would be divided somehow between Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu, maybe some small odds for Ten and Takahashi, and everyone else combined after that would be something like 1% total, and Chan`s percentage would be lower than 70.
    Remember that Chan can fall five times, judges will give him the Gold, because they LOVE him so much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cachoo View Post
    I always sense danger when people talk about a "sure thing." So I voted for Yuna. Chan is brilliant but mistake-prone, D/W and V/M are pretty evenly matched and V/T have the pressure of home ice. So with all of that why pick Yuna? I can see Mao, Carolina and a few others preparing technically EPIC programs to try and catch her. And I think it can be done. Sometimes it is better to be the hunter than the hunted.
    But can they execute these technically demanding programs? I do not think we will see 2 clean programs from Mao or Kostner at the Olympics. If anyone will out-technical Yuna, it might be just Gracie.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    No I did not imply that at all, in fact I think there is 0% chance of someone other than D&W or V&M winning. However the judges might rather D&W win as they dont have the Oly Gold yet, and only if they win V&M wont defend and wont match G&Ps feat.
    Oh, got it. Thanks for making it clear for me, now it makes a lot of sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    No I did not imply that at all, in fact I think there is 0% chance of someone other than D&W or V&M winning. However the judges might rather D&W win as they dont have the Oly Gold yet, and only if they win V&M wont defend and wont match G&Ps feat.
    Is it wrong that I would be okay with that provided both skate clean? They are both brilliant, I want them to each have an OGM.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by lauren329 View Post
    Is it wrong that I would be okay with that provided both skate clean? They are both brilliant, I want them to each have an OGM.
    No it is not wrong at all to feel that way, and I actually think D&W are pulling ahead and are the slightly better team now, even though I prefer the general style and am a bigger fan of V&M.

    Quote Originally Posted by lauren329 View Post
    But can they execute these technically demanding programs? I do not think we will see 2 clean programs from Mao or Kostner at the Olympics. If anyone will out-technical Yuna, it might be just Gracie.
    I actually agree with that although I dont think she would have any chance to beat Kim barring several falls as Kim will cream her in PCS (and best her in GOE most likely too, despite that Gold gets some good GOE on her clean jumps).

  18. #18
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    I chose Chan. He talks big and is held up everywhere else, but you have to absolutely hit it at the Olympics to win and I don't think he is strong enough to withstand that kind of pressure.

    I wasn't sure about Kim before this Worlds, but boy, am I ever now. It is such a shame that Kostner can't get her act together because she is the only one who can challenge Kim and if both nail everything, I think the judges would be more inclined to crown an European as the next OC. Asada and everyone else have no hope because they have too many niggling flaws which will bring their scores down no matter what they do.

  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    No it is not wrong at all to feel that way, and I actually think D&W are pulling ahead and are the slightly better team now, even though I prefer the general style and am a bigger fan of V&M.



    I actually agree with that although I dont think she would have any chance to beat Kim barring several falls as Kim will cream her in PCS (and best her in GOE most likely too, despite that Gold gets some good GOE on her clean jumps).
    Completely agree. I never thought that Gracie could beat Kim, just that if anyone will outscore her technically my money is on USNationals Gracie over Kostner or Asada

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by lauren329 View Post
    D&W- This is the one I am most emotionally invested in. I so hope they win- its not locked up by any means. In my mind, they have been the most dominant team since Tessa's injury and should go into this Olympics as three time World Champs and clear favorites. I am by no means a Virtue and Moir hater- I thought they were the brilliant, deserving winners in 2010, I loved Hip Hip Chin Chin and I actually loved Carmen for the first time yesterday. On the one hand, I could see the consensus being that the pendulum has swung over to D&W after this season. On the other side, there could be some chatter that 2014 is V/M's turn again & with Meryl & Charlie making noise about staying after Sochi and Tessa & Scott making it pretty clear that this is the goodbye, I could see them getting this one. Particularly if they do a ballet type routine in Russia. Ice dance judging is so weird and both teams are so good. If all is fair, it will come down to who executes their levels the best on the two days. I can't believe it seems like they will all stay training in Canton. Next year is going to be insane in ice dance.
    they are not three time world champions only two time 2011 and now 2013 same as V/M 2010 and 2012

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