To what extent does a pre-Olympic worlds medal boost Olympic medal chances?

[Maofan7]

New article entitled 'Skaters Use World Stage to Gain Confidence on Their Path to the Olympics'. It reads:-

Sarah Hughes was hardly a stranger to the international scene when she arrived at the World Figure Skating Championships in 2001. She had a bronze medal from the Grand Prix Final and, if she was not mentioned in the same sentence with Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya, she was certainly in the conversation.
By finishing third at the championships the year before the Salt Lake Games in 2002, Hughes burnished her medal-contending credibility — with the judges, other skaters and the public.

A year later, she was an Olympic champion.

“Getting the third place was really a breakthrough for me there,” Hughes said. “It was so hard and so difficult for me to get that third place. I was just fighting and fighting and fighting to try and get that recognition.”

She added: “It gave me a lot of confidence going into the summer because the summer before the Olympics is really, really important. It seems like you have a lot of time before the Games, but you blink your eyes, and it’s here.”

So, in percentage terms, to what extent does winning a medal at the last world championships before an Olympic games boost a skaters chances of winning an Olympic medal? From what Sarah Hughes is saying in the article, it evidently mattered a lot in terms of recognition as a contender, and in terms of her confidence. However, with others it seemed to have not mattered at all. For example, prior to winning a Silver medal at the 1992 Olympics, Paul Wylie had never finished any higher than 9th at a World Championships.

[Aussie Willy]

I think these days it doesn't. Win an Olympic medal and you might be a favourite, but under IJS where every element counts, don't nail your elements and it will affect your placement. Events are much less predictable these days. Although I think in dance we generally know who are the best dancers are it is more predictable. But that is because there is a reason why the best dancers are the best dancers.

[Vash01]

It does help, even under IJS. We know that it is not an objective system because the PCS marks can be manipulated quite easily. A medal winner from the previous worlds will have some positive bias going into the Olympics compared to -for example- someone that placed 7th at worlds the previous year (unless that 7th place finisher happens to be someone that medaled a year before that).

[UGG]

I think in Sarah Hughes situation, it helped her immensely and I think her Skate Canada win did too. Honestly, if she had not been the reigning bronze medalist and did not win that GP, I really doubt she would have placed 4th in the short program. I know her ordinals were all over the place IRRC, she did have some 4th place ones. I think they would have been lower. I believe she was to be propped up for bronze if possible.

If a skater is already "accomplished", I don't think it matters. Previous world champs Mao and Shizuka did not medal at the worlds before the Olympics and both won medals-and as we all know Shiz went from 9th the year before to winning the Olympics.

[Loves_Shizuka]

Finishing 9th(!!) in 05 didn't Shiz much harm in 06

But I certainly see the point. I wonder if the 94 and 98 results would have been different if Baiul and Lipinksi hadn't won their respective world titles the year before?

[Maofan7]

It does help, even under IJS.

That's exactly right - enhanced reputation and confidence going into the Olympic season can only be beneficial in terms of momentum all around.

[Vash01]

Finishing 9th(!!) in 05 didn't Shiz much harm in 06

But I certainly see the point. I wonder if the 94 and 98 results would have been different if Baiul and Lipinksi hadn't won their respective world titles the year before?

Quite possibly being the reigning world champs gave them an edge in two very close competitions.

[julieann]

If you are in the top four or five in the world you will be at the top in the Olympics unless something catastrophic happens like in Brian Joubert’s case.

If you look at the 2009 WC and 2010 Olympics ladies, pairs and dance had the same 4 or 5 top finishers. The men did shift because many didn't compete at Worlds 09 for whatever reason and some skaters like Joubert, Verner and Contesti who were 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively at the WC finished 16th, 19th and 18th at the Olympics. But I certainly would have never guessed Joubert would crack like he did.

OTOH, Mirai did very good for 4th place. I think the Olympics are just like any other competition and if you are one of the best in the world chances are you will stay there, unless you melt under pressure and someone will be there to take your place but usually someone in 7th or 8th not 15th.

[Cherub721]

I was going to say that's it's more of a boost to the chance of Olympic gold. It is virtually impossible to win an Olympic gold medal without at least one previous world medal. The article says it only happened once, in 1920, and they hadn't held Worlds the previous five years.

I remember being a Kostner uber back in the day and being SO relieved when she won that bronze in Moscow because to my mind, this kept her in the conversation as a possible OGM.

[VIETgrlTerifa]

How can we really quantify this in percentages?

[Skater91]

It helps for reputation points but that's about it....

Using Shizuka as an example of it not providing a bonus is a bad example because 1. She was already a world champion before that 2. because no one considered her for winning anyway!

[AndyWarhol]

i think it helps. it's certainly a PCS boost!

[Skater91]

i think it helps. it's certainly a PCS boost!

Even though It should have no affect!

If judges are being fair and basing the scores of the performance they just watched not on previous experiences then the results from worlds before should not matter.

The thing is how often do judges ever give fair scores that are not on reputation???..... hardly ever

[judgejudy27]

Finishing 9th(!!) in 05 didn't Shiz much harm in 06

But I certainly see the point. I wonder if the 94 and 98 results would have been different if Baiul and Lipinksi hadn't won their respective world titles the year before?

Kwan was the heavy favorite in 98 despite Tara's World title the previous year, and as heavy favorite skated beautifully and still lost, so I dont think it would have made any difference.

I think there is no way Bauil wins over Kerrigan in 94 with the same performances both gave at the Games if Kerrigan had won the 93 Worlds though. Not even a teeny tiny chance to be honest, and quite possibly she would have only been 3rd seeing as she had some 3rd place votes anyway.

[Susan M]

I think the answer should be "it depends on what medal you are talking about." If you're talking bronze or silver, I'm not sure a previous World medal makes much difference over, say, a previous 4th or 5th place finish. OTOH, if you are talking gold medal chances, a previous World medal improves your chances exponentially. I am having trouble thinking of any OGM of the last couple decades who did not already have some kind of World medal.

[judgejudy27]

I think the answer should be "it depends on what medal you are talking about." If you're talking bronze or silver, I'm not sure a previous World medal makes much difference over, say, a previous 4th or 5th place finish. OTOH, if you are talking gold medal chances, a previous World medal improves your chances exponentially. I am having trouble thinking of any OGM of the last couple decades who did not already have some kind of World medal.

Exactly. It just wont happen. Paul Wylie is the most obvious proof of that. While I dont think it is a slam dunk or anything that he should have won, he still came out and gave the performances of his life, all the top skaters skated their worst ever in the long program (and some in the short too) and he still didnt win. The judges wont give the OGM to someone who doesnt atleast have a World medal to their name. I cant see them letting that happen under any circumstances.

[Vash01]

I think the answer should be "it depends on what medal you are talking about." If you're talking bronze or silver, I'm not sure a previous World medal makes much difference over, say, a previous 4th or 5th place finish. OTOH, if you are talking gold medal chances, a previous World medal improves your chances exponentially. I am having trouble thinking of any OGM of the last couple decades who did not already have some kind of World medal.

Exactly. It just wont happen. Paul Wylie is the most obvious proof of that. While I dont think it is a slam dunk or anything that he should have won, he still came out and gave the performances of his life, all the top skaters skated their worst ever in the long program (and some in the short too) and he still didnt win. The judges wont give the OGM to someone who doesnt atleast have a World medal to their name. I cant see them letting that happen under any circumstances.

Interesting observations by both. I had not thought about it, but that seems to be the case when it comes to an OGM. It means Sarah Hughes' bronze at the 2001 worlds was HUGE. Without it, she may not have won the OGM in 2002.

[NadineWhite]

It can't hurt, it can only help, and that in itself answers the question posed.

[Seerek]

Some good examples from the past where I think a prior year's World medal did help at the Olympics were:

Pairs

Jill Watson / Peter Oppegard (1987)
Oksana Kazakova / Artur Dmitriev (1997)
Zhang Dan / Zhang Hao (2005)

Dance

Elena Grushina / Ruslan Goncharov (2005)

Men

Alexei Urmanov (1993)

Ladies

Chen Lu (1993)
Sarah Hughes (2001)

[Susan M]

In the case of OGM, I don't think it matters if the World medal was won the year just before Worlds or earlier, as long as there was a World medal. I'm thinking of Arakawa who was only 9th the year before but had won in 94 and Kulik, who was 5th in 97 but was 2nd in 96.

I also don't think it matters much if the person is the reigning champion or a former champion or only a World medalist. There was an odd streak from 88 Olympics thru the 98 games (4 Olympics), when the current men's World Champion never won Olympic gold while the ladies World champion always did.