View Poll Results: To what extent does a pre-Olympic worlds medal boost Olympic medal chances?

Voters
53. You may not vote on this poll
  • It provides no boost at all

    10 18.87%
  • Up to 10%

    3 5.66%
  • Up to 20%

    1 1.89%
  • Up to 30%

    4 7.55%
  • Up to 40%

    4 7.55%
  • Up to 50%

    11 20.75%
  • Up to 60%

    5 9.43%
  • Up to 75%

    7 13.21%
  • 75% plus

    8 15.09%
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 24
  1. #1

    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    5,399
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    68873

    To what extent does a pre-Olympic worlds medal boost Olympic medal chances?

    New article entitled 'Skaters Use World Stage to Gain Confidence on Their Path to the Olympics'. It reads:-

    Sarah Hughes was hardly a stranger to the international scene when she arrived at the World Figure Skating Championships in 2001. She had a bronze medal from the Grand Prix Final and, if she was not mentioned in the same sentence with Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya, she was certainly in the conversation.
    By finishing third at the championships the year before the Salt Lake Games in 2002, Hughes burnished her medal-contending credibility — with the judges, other skaters and the public.

    A year later, she was an Olympic champion.

    “Getting the third place was really a breakthrough for me there,” Hughes said. “It was so hard and so difficult for me to get that third place. I was just fighting and fighting and fighting to try and get that recognition.”

    She added: “It gave me a lot of confidence going into the summer because the summer before the Olympics is really, really important. It seems like you have a lot of time before the Games, but you blink your eyes, and it’s here.”
    So, in percentage terms, to what extent does winning a medal at the last world championships before an Olympic games boost a skaters chances of winning an Olympic medal? From what Sarah Hughes is saying in the article, it evidently mattered a lot in terms of recognition as a contender, and in terms of her confidence. However, with others it seemed to have not mattered at all. For example, prior to winning a Silver medal at the 1992 Olympics, Paul Wylie had never finished any higher than 9th at a World Championships.

  2. #2

    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Melbourne, Australia
    Age
    48
    Posts
    17,943
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    37723
    I think these days it doesn't. Win an Olympic medal and you might be a favourite, but under IJS where every element counts, don't nail your elements and it will affect your placement. Events are much less predictable these days. Although I think in dance we generally know who are the best dancers are it is more predictable. But that is because there is a reason why the best dancers are the best dancers.
    When you are up to your arse in alligators it is difficult to remember you were only meant to be draining the swamp.

  3. #3

    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    24,950
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    91872
    It does help, even under IJS. We know that it is not an objective system because the PCS marks can be manipulated quite easily. A medal winner from the previous worlds will have some positive bias going into the Olympics compared to -for example- someone that placed 7th at worlds the previous year (unless that 7th place finisher happens to be someone that medaled a year before that).

  4. #4
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    1,833
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    I think in Sarah Hughes situation, it helped her immensely and I think her Skate Canada win did too. Honestly, if she had not been the reigning bronze medalist and did not win that GP, I really doubt she would have placed 4th in the short program. I know her ordinals were all over the place IRRC, she did have some 4th place ones. I think they would have been lower. I believe she was to be propped up for bronze if possible.

    If a skater is already "accomplished", I don't think it matters. Previous world champs Mao and Shizuka did not medal at the worlds before the Olympics and both won medals-and as we all know Shiz went from 9th the year before to winning the Olympics.

  5. #5
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    London, Englandia.
    Age
    22
    Posts
    12,277
    vCash
    581
    Rep Power
    0
    Finishing 9th(!!) in 05 didn't Shiz much harm in 06

    But I certainly see the point. I wonder if the 94 and 98 results would have been different if Baiul and Lipinksi hadn't won their respective world titles the year before?

  6. #6

    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    5,399
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    68873
    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    It does help, even under IJS.
    That's exactly right - enhanced reputation and confidence going into the Olympic season can only be beneficial in terms of momentum all around.

  7. #7

    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    24,950
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    91872
    Quote Originally Posted by Loves_Shizuka View Post
    Finishing 9th(!!) in 05 didn't Shiz much harm in 06

    But I certainly see the point. I wonder if the 94 and 98 results would have been different if Baiul and Lipinksi hadn't won their respective world titles the year before?
    Quite possibly being the reigning world champs gave them an edge in two very close competitions.

  8. #8
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    3,518
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    If you are in the top four or five in the world you will be at the top in the Olympics unless something catastrophic happens like in Brian Joubert’s case.

    If you look at the 2009 WC and 2010 Olympics ladies, pairs and dance had the same 4 or 5 top finishers. The men did shift because many didn't compete at Worlds 09 for whatever reason and some skaters like Joubert, Verner and Contesti who were 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively at the WC finished 16th, 19th and 18th at the Olympics. But I certainly would have never guessed Joubert would crack like he did.

    OTOH, Mirai did very good for 4th place. I think the Olympics are just like any other competition and if you are one of the best in the world chances are you will stay there, unless you melt under pressure and someone will be there to take your place but usually someone in 7th or 8th not 15th.

  9. #9
    YEAH!
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Worshipping Grebenkina...
    Posts
    13,816
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    13666
    I was going to say that's it's more of a boost to the chance of Olympic gold. It is virtually impossible to win an Olympic gold medal without at least one previous world medal. The article says it only happened once, in 1920, and they hadn't held Worlds the previous five years.

    I remember being a Kostner uber back in the day and being SO relieved when she won that bronze in Moscow because to my mind, this kept her in the conversation as a possible OGM.

  10. #10

    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    I Want to Go to There
    Posts
    9,863
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    40900
    How can we really quantify this in percentages?

  11. #11
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Flatt #1
    Posts
    118
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    It helps for reputation points but that's about it....

    Using Shizuka as an example of it not providing a bonus is a bad example because 1. She was already a world champion before that 2. because no one considered her for winning anyway!

  12. #12

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    1,158
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    4049
    i think it helps. it's certainly a PCS boost!

  13. #13
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Flatt #1
    Posts
    118
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by AndyWarhol View Post
    i think it helps. it's certainly a PCS boost!
    Even though It should have no affect!

    If judges are being fair and basing the scores of the performance they just watched not on previous experiences then the results from worlds before should not matter.

    The thing is how often do judges ever give fair scores that are not on reputation???..... hardly ever

  14. #14
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    23
    Posts
    13,291
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by Loves_Shizuka View Post
    Finishing 9th(!!) in 05 didn't Shiz much harm in 06

    But I certainly see the point. I wonder if the 94 and 98 results would have been different if Baiul and Lipinksi hadn't won their respective world titles the year before?
    Kwan was the heavy favorite in 98 despite Tara's World title the previous year, and as heavy favorite skated beautifully and still lost, so I dont think it would have made any difference.

    I think there is no way Bauil wins over Kerrigan in 94 with the same performances both gave at the Games if Kerrigan had won the 93 Worlds though. Not even a teeny tiny chance to be honest, and quite possibly she would have only been 3rd seeing as she had some 3rd place votes anyway.

  15. #15
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Northern Virginia
    Posts
    1,437
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    I think the answer should be "it depends on what medal you are talking about." If you're talking bronze or silver, I'm not sure a previous World medal makes much difference over, say, a previous 4th or 5th place finish. OTOH, if you are talking gold medal chances, a previous World medal improves your chances exponentially. I am having trouble thinking of any OGM of the last couple decades who did not already have some kind of World medal.

  16. #16
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    23
    Posts
    13,291
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    I think the answer should be "it depends on what medal you are talking about." If you're talking bronze or silver, I'm not sure a previous World medal makes much difference over, say, a previous 4th or 5th place finish. OTOH, if you are talking gold medal chances, a previous World medal improves your chances exponentially. I am having trouble thinking of any OGM of the last couple decades who did not already have some kind of World medal.
    Exactly. It just wont happen. Paul Wylie is the most obvious proof of that. While I dont think it is a slam dunk or anything that he should have won, he still came out and gave the performances of his life, all the top skaters skated their worst ever in the long program (and some in the short too) and he still didnt win. The judges wont give the OGM to someone who doesnt atleast have a World medal to their name. I cant see them letting that happen under any circumstances.

  17. #17

    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    24,950
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    91872
    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    I think the answer should be "it depends on what medal you are talking about." If you're talking bronze or silver, I'm not sure a previous World medal makes much difference over, say, a previous 4th or 5th place finish. OTOH, if you are talking gold medal chances, a previous World medal improves your chances exponentially. I am having trouble thinking of any OGM of the last couple decades who did not already have some kind of World medal.
    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Exactly. It just wont happen. Paul Wylie is the most obvious proof of that. While I dont think it is a slam dunk or anything that he should have won, he still came out and gave the performances of his life, all the top skaters skated their worst ever in the long program (and some in the short too) and he still didnt win. The judges wont give the OGM to someone who doesnt atleast have a World medal to their name. I cant see them letting that happen under any circumstances.
    Interesting observations by both. I had not thought about it, but that seems to be the case when it comes to an OGM. It means Sarah Hughes' bronze at the 2001 worlds was HUGE. Without it, she may not have won the OGM in 2002.

  18. #18

    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    2,093
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    1664
    It can't hurt, it can only help, and that in itself answers the question posed.

  19. #19
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Posts
    3,428
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    Some good examples from the past where I think a prior year's World medal did help at the Olympics were:

    Pairs

    Jill Watson / Peter Oppegard (1987)
    Oksana Kazakova / Artur Dmitriev (1997)
    Zhang Dan / Zhang Hao (2005)

    Dance

    Elena Grushina / Ruslan Goncharov (2005)

    Men

    Alexei Urmanov (1993)

    Ladies

    Chen Lu (1993)
    Sarah Hughes (2001)

  20. #20
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Northern Virginia
    Posts
    1,437
    vCash
    500
    Rep Power
    0
    In the case of OGM, I don't think it matters if the World medal was won the year just before Worlds or earlier, as long as there was a World medal. I'm thinking of Arakawa who was only 9th the year before but had won in 94 and Kulik, who was 5th in 97 but was 2nd in 96.

    I also don't think it matters much if the person is the reigning champion or a former champion or only a World medalist. There was an odd streak from 88 Olympics thru the 98 games (4 Olympics), when the current men's World Champion never won Olympic gold while the ladies World champion always did.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •