Academy Awards Tomorrow

[martian_girl]

I also love Jennifer Lawrence and will be thrilled if she wins. That would make 2 years in a row where the Female Lead Oscar goes to who I want to win. That hardly ever happens on any one given year.

I haven't seen any of the nominated performances, so I can't really judge, but there is some rumbling that Lawrence will not win this one. Basically, the reasons for this have nothing to do with her performance, and more to do with stupid things like her SNL monologue being too mean, or that she's "too young" to win, or my personal favorite "the hot chicks will cancel each other out in the voting". The joy of Oscar politics.

That being said, I'm still predicting her to win, along with Argo, Lewis, DeNiro, Hathaway and Haneke for director.

[AshleyN]

Eh, I know politics play a big role when it comes to the Oscars but I think if say, Emmanuelle Riva (who right now seems to be the most likely candidate to pull off the upset in that category) wins it will have less to do with the silly things you just mentioned and more to do with the fact that just about everyone who's actually seen Amour seems to have been blown away by her performance.

Anyways, I'm sure if she wins there will be just as many people crying politics as there will be if she loses.


On another note, I think I mentioned this in another thread, but this really seems to be the most unpredictable Oscars in several years. DDL, Hathaway, and Argo seem to have their awards more or less locked up, but the rest of the biggies (Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, and both Screenplay awards) are still up in the air. It should make for a fun ceremony.

[VIETgrlTerifa]

I haven't seen any of the nominated performances, so I can't really judge, but there is some rumbling that Lawrence will not win this one. Basically, the reasons for this have nothing to do with her performance, and more to do with stupid things like her SNL monologue being too mean, or that she's "too young" to win, or my personal favorite "the hot chicks will cancel each other out in the voting". The joy of Oscar politics.

That being said, I'm still predicting her to win, along with Argo, Lewis, DeNiro, Hathaway and Haneke for director.

I'd be fine if she didn't win for any reason (no matter how petty) because I simply thought she was outclassed by the rest of the field. Plus, for every petty reason why a member wouldn't vote for her, I'm sure there are petty reasons why people would vote for her.

Best Picture
Will win: Argo
Any of these will be deserving (ranked by order of preference):
1. Life of Pi or Amour
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Lincoln
6. Django Unchained
GAP
7. Argo
----------- Undeserving to win -----------
8. Les Miserables
9. Silver Linings Playbook (travesty this is on here).

Best Director:
Will Win: Steven Spielberg with Ang Lee a close second.
Should Win: I would be happy with any of these men win the award except for David O. Russell who should not have been in there. Affleck or Bigelow should have been in his spot. Lee is my personal choice with Michael Haneke (Amour) second and Behn Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) third. That leaves Spielberg fourth, but I won't be angry if he won.

Best Actor:
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis.

I think Joaquin Phoenix gave an extraordinary performance that was gut-wrenching and uncomfortable to watch at times. However, I do think Day-Lewis had the superior performance in terms of what he presented to the audience and his ability to play off the other actors.

Best Actress:
Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva or Jessica Chastain.

Riva is on another plane from the other four nominees. There's no contest for me. Jessica Chastain plays my favorite female character of the year though. Someone who is not defined by a romantic leading man and doesn't fall into Oscar-baity traps by having the least showy role amongst the nominees (unlike Lawrence who plays a co-dependant, crying mess of two-dimensional character).

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Phillip Seymour-Hoffman

Waltz and Seymour-Hoffman are both worthy of awards, but they're cheating. They're really leads or co-leads in their respective films, so they have a lot more material to work with with the plot focusing on them. However, I'd be happy if any of these men take it. Tommy Lee Jones played Thaddeus Stevens very well, but there was something missing for me. I can't put my finger on it. Let's applaud DeNiro for finally finding the non-crappy role he hasn't been able to find for like two decades. Shame his character rang incredibly false for me and was incredibly over-the-top. DeNiro is not in last place because Arkin did not deserve a nomination.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Should Win: Sally Field

I personally didn't see what was so special about Hathaway. Yes, she sang, and she cried. However, it was so self-indulgent and her character was so weak. She is just a symbol Victor Hugo used to represented the miserable poor who may have to give up her dignity and dreams to survive. I don't think there was really much she really had to do in her small role. Sally Field and Helen Hunt, meanwhile, played multi-facted characters. Amy Adams should be happy she got a nomination because her role wasn't that substantial, neither did she really make an impact in The Master. I don't get why Jackie Weaver was nominated for the likes of someone like Ann Dowd in Compliance.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Argo (because they just love Argo no matter what else it's nominated with) or Silver Linings Playbook (God-forbid, but Harvey Weinstein is backing this up).
Should Win: Lincoln.

Tony Kushner's dialogue in Lincoln is a work of art.

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Django Unchained
Should Win: Django Unchained

I would have liked it if Zero Dark Thirty could win one after the way the movie was absolutely beaten up and left for dead by its detractors. I've never seen a movie that was so loved by the "respected" film critics only to be abandoned because they were afraid to back it up after the controversy. However, Mark Boal "stole" Tarantino's Oscar for Best Original Screenplay a few years back when The Hurt Locker beat Inglorious Basterds. Django isn't as good as Inglorious Basterds, but when it works, it really works.

Some others:

Best Score: Life of Pi (Will and should win)

Best Cinematography: Life of Pi (Will and should win) or Skyfall (if a lot of Life of Pi's work was done post-production).

[allezfred]

Can't believe Inglorious Basterds was nominated for Original Screenplay. It was ridiculous even for Tarantino. If Django is worse then

[jenny12]

Can't believe Inglorious Basterds was nominated for Original Screenplay. It was ridiculous even for Tarantino. If Django is worse then

Well, for a Tarantino fan as I am, I would say Django is slightly below Inglorious Basters, but its great dialogue and very strong sequences throughout (I agree that Django is uneven though) make it worthy of a win in my opinion.

I hope Anne Hathaway doesn't pull a Taylor Swift when she wins and act so surprised, but I'm sure she will.

[Spareoom]

I still think Jen has the best chance out of all the Best Actress nominees to win, but I would not be surprised if she didn't. Politics play a HUGE part in the Oscars and she's very young, plus is quite quirky and non-traditional in her personality and demeanor that a lot of people might find off-putting and offensive. Whatever. She has SO much to be proud of and even if she doesn't win, she has an amazing career and it would be a shame if she felt like she had to change who she is as a person in order to win an award. She hasn't, which is awesome. Two Oscar nominations in three years and only 22; this won't be the last one and she's got like, half a million potential Oscar roles lined up as well as a couple big blockbusters. She'll be fine.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to tonight! Should be fun because I really like all the movies and nominees. It should be fun to see Anne cry her way through something that was a foregone conclusion about a year ago. We know you're a great actress, Annie, but nobody buys the "surprised" act anymore!

[Matryeshka]

This is one of the few years where I have not seen several of the nominees, so I'm just here for the dresses. It's a shame, because I think this was the strongest year for movies in a long time. I have not seen Django, Zero Dark Thirty, Amour, or Life of Pi. Of the rest, I'd vote for Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I'm fine with any of them winning except Silver Linings Playbook. Except for Bradley Cooper, everything in that movie was incredibly overrated. I thought JLaw's performance was adequate, but not special in any way. I view her nomination as Hollywood saying, we like you. You're young and talented and we're acknowledging that.

I'm watching E right now. I wish they'd get Kelly Osborne's purple-grey hair off the screen because they're interrupting the jewelry porn.

[escaflowne9282]

Best Actress:
Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva or Jessica Chastain.

Riva is on another plane from the other four nominees. There's no contest for me. Jessica Chastain plays my favorite female character of the year though. Someone who is not defined by a romantic leading man and doesn't fall into Oscar-baity traps by having the least showy role amongst the nominees (unlike Lawrence who plays a co-dependant, crying mess of two-dimensional character).

I don't see what was so great about Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastain. They both portrayed very dull one-dimensional characters. If there were any justice, the two horse race would be between Quaznave(sp) Wallis and Emanuelle Riva. They were the class of the field IMHO

on.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Should Win: Sally Field

I personally didn't see what was so special about Hathaway. Yes, she sang, and she cried. However, it was so self-indulgent and her character was so weak. She is just a symbol Victor Hugo used to represented the miserable poor who may have to give up her dignity and dreams to survive. I don't think there was really much she really had to do in her small role. Sally Field and Helen Hunt, meanwhile, played multi-facted characters. Amy Adams should be happy she got a nomination because her role wasn't that substantial, neither did she really make an impact in The Master. I don't get why Jackie Weaver was nominated for the likes of someone like Ann Dowd in Compliance.

I HATED Sally Field in Lincoln and I thought her portrayal was a hot mess. She basically played the shrill insufferable character she portrayed in Bothers and Sisters while wearing a period costume. I found that she lacked chemistry with DDL as well/ I like her in general , but that role is just not Oscar-worthy. I'm ok with Anne or Helen.

[Cachoo]

I'm starting to lose any hope for Naomi. I like the other nominees though.

[my little pony]

best picture - amour
best actor - DDL, wouldnt be awful if joaquin phoenix won
best actress - emanuelle riva although i think naomi watts is also deserving
best supp actor - im ok with waltz or hoffman
best supp actress - helen hunt but she already has an oscar she didnt deserve so it comes out even if she loses, anyone but anne whose fit of a performance made me LOL